How did our team get so screwed up?

[BudweiserCeltic]

We have our window now.  We will have flexibility as these guys come off their contracts.  It's just a matter of "when" we want to exercise that option.  The issue that we have is that we are in reasonable cap position next year with Allen's contract coming off the books ... but moves we make now might change that point. 

 

The future flexibility is not so easy. The fact is, if Ray Allen expires as a Celtic we lose him as an asset in that he's a max expiring. The C's won't be under the cap to enable us the ability to land another. However, we can conceivable extent Rondo and resign Allen at a half the money he's making now which would be an issue if Ray wasn't expiring until 2011.

There's always a sign and trade option.

[Jon]

Gee if this is screwed up I sure wish that I was so screwed up!

Go ask the GM's and fans of the 25 or so teams that have no chance to win a championship and ask them if they would like to trade positions with us. You will get 100% who can't wait.

WE WON A CHAMPIONSHIP!!!. WE ARE IN CONTENTION FOR ONE OR TWO MORE!

And on a long term note, we have a couple of young players and if Danny can manage the cap in a way that may be possible, could be a player for a younger star next year in free agency.

These are the best of times. Enjoy them.

TP

I think our dark times ('92-'07) scarred people so deeply that they don't know what to do when we have a veteran team poised to win it all and don't have a roster full of "upside" that will probably never realize its potential.  

But that's the whole point of professional sports: to win it all.  Even if we have to wait 10 years before we're good again, I'd take that and another title or two over being this decade's version of the 1990s Utah Jazz.  Because close doesn't matter, only a title does.

Also, think of it this way: if the C's win one more title with this group, they'll match what the '70s teams with Cowens/White/Havlicek did.  If they win two more titles, they'll have matched what the original Big Three have done.  The only real difference is that they'll have done it in less time.  

That's certainly not something to be down about.  

[mgent]

How did we get so screwed up? Easy, we mortgaged our future for 1 flag; well we got our flag and now our assets are getting a little bit older and more injury prone, so our honeymoon is over. Thats the price we had to pay and we paid it; we will probably return to our inconsequential status in the league sooner than later. But, we got our flag; and most fans dont want to trade any of our "Big Three"; not that Ainge pays any attention to us fans. Dont despair now; we knew this was coming; it just came a little sooner than expected. Of course, Ainge can pull another miracle in the next few weeks; so lets wait and see; its just that the vibes are not as good as I would like them to be. I hope Im wrong. Peace

TP.

I think you are right on the money.  We fans knew what we were getting into when Danny traded all the young talent worth anything for Ray and KG, and on top of that knew the risk (the Big Three get older, but no ring is earned). 

Instead, with a bit of luck o' the irish, we won in year one.I am thankful for that (as I know everyone on this board is).

The issue now, is what to do for the future? 

We actually have more options than if we hadn't just won.  If we hadn't, Danny would be under a ton of pressure to make trades and surround the Big Three, and would be frantically mortgaging away the future.  Thankfully, we don't have to do that. 

I believe the team is financially restricted, and so won't be players for the "big name" FAs, but I think a couple of well thought middle market FA signings could help extend the window for a couple years.


Perhaps more important (for the long term success of the team) I think that Ray Allen is on the block.  Trading him for a decent younger starter (especially one that may improve over time) and a couple of key bench players could make the team a viable contender for years to come. 

I realize that the idea of trading Ray Allen is an unpopular one, and that most people would prefer improving the team via Free Agency.  I just feel that with the Cs salary so high that management will be unwilling to do so...

He was close to right on the money.  We didn't mortgage our future for 1 flag, we did it for 3.  We were lucky that we actually able to win our first year together, but 09 and 10 were supposed to be sure things.  KG getting injured was a risk we know we were taking by signing old dudes, it just sucks because he's not a guy that is gonna bounce back and make it up to us in the next 5-10 years.  It's beyond impossible to win 11 titles in 13 years these days, and we won't have a guy like Bill Russel who will stick around for them.  However, 3 titles with the same team is still very possible, and i think that's why we decided maxing our cap was justified.  The reasons it probably won't happen are simple:
1. I think we expected Pruitt, Walker, and Giddens were gonna be as good as these mid level FAs we're looking for now.
2. I don't think we expected Davis was gonna need anymore money (who actually thought he'd succeed as a starter this early).
So if everything went as planned we would have the young back-up guards and SF we're looking for, and keeping both Davis and Powe wouldn't be a question.  That would give us the young and potential yet talented reserves (including T Allen) we probably wanted.  And to round them out we still would've had some older guys (House and Scal), our possibly potential 09 draft pick (Hudson), and the possibility to sign a vet or two for the year.  IF we had that no one would be questioning our title this year.  Unfortunately it didn't because our 3 young guys don't play, Davis might be gone, Powe and Tony have be plagued with injuries, and Marbury/Moore were pretty much a bust (compared to PJ and Sam at least).

[mgent]

They can sign more then one player. 


They have the MLE to use in full or to split.

They have the LLE


And they have the vet min.



And soon, they have the expirering package of TA and Scali to get a player around 6 million a year. 


Meanwhile, the Celtics have the best starting 5 in the NBA. 

They used less (never used the LLE) to build the title bench of two years ago.



So, as long as they are smart and target the right players, they will have the bench they need to go with the best starting 5 in the NBA.

Could not have said it better myself. I think people are being a tad pessimistic. I will believe that we can get some decent players for our bench until I am shown otherwise.
As far as being a lottery team in 3 or 4 years, just look at Perkins and Rondo. Each are young and getting better every year. In 3 or 4 years the big 3 will either be winding down or retiring (or play at the same level but it's doubtful).
However, Rondo is an allstar by then and I think Perk might be too. I know I'm being optimistic but if Perk develops a consistent jumper are numbers of 15/12/5 assists and near the top of the league in blocks possible? I think so. Are those near all star numbers for a true center? I think so. If we keep Baby maybe he gets better, he certainly made the jump in the playoffs this year. You never know with Giddens or Walker.
If the Big 3 are retiring and not winding down then we'll have a lot of cap space. Do top free agents want to come here now for the MLE probably not. Do top free agents want to come here for max contracts, I think so. I think the Celtics will start to become like the Red Sox and Patriots of current times and at least compete every year.

Until you are shown otherwise?  What did you see in the playoffs last year, cause the only guys on our bench that i saw playing were Scal and House.
Posey, House, and PJ Brown were proof that FAs can be a lucky blessing.  However Marbury and Moore obviously proved that you can't rely only on them, because they obviously did not give us the bench support we wanted and clearly needed.
As far as dropping to the bottom of the league in 3-4 years, that's crazy.

[mgent]

Before this year I never really paid attention to contracts, just the players.  But now that our window is closing with the big 3, I'm all nervous because we desperately need some support if we want a good chance to get back on top.  So i take a look at our contracts and it turns out we are already like 15mil over the cap, so we can only sign 1 player.  In conclusion, this sucks.  Half of our bench doesn't even play, so i feel like we're severely disabled.  Then i take a look at the top of the list and i realized the big 3 are all being paid the league maximum.  Actually, Garnett is about 5mil over somehow.  So i add them together and it turns out just the 3 of them are over the cap for the whole team.  Why don't these guys take a freakin pay cut and help out their team?  Getting 20mil for being the league MVP is one thing, but Ray Allen barely made the all-star team.
Last year we lost Posey, Cassell, and Brown, and we gained nobody.
Now we're possibly losing Powe and Davis, and it's up to House if he wants to stay.  If we can't sign anybody, then when everyone's contracts run out we're gonna be in big trouble.  Out of the 14 guys on our roster 3 of them aren't even guaranteed, 3 of them have barely played in this league, and 1 of them is the 3rd to last draft pick.  So other than our 5 starters, that leaves Tony Allen and Scalabrine.  Danny better have something up his sleeve for 2010.  I'm looking at the page right now and we've only got about 4-5 guys guaranteed for the year after next.  It's gonna suck if everyone wants out, because it seems not many people want in.

Learn the NBA salary rules. There are no pay cuts in the NBA, unless you are talking about buyouts. A fan slightly literate about contracts knows that KG's contract was signed before max contracts, and is a major reason why shut limits were created.

The big 3 had their contracts before the big 3 were assembled. KG's 3 year extension that is now beginning decreases his pay.

No need to be so snide. The poster was just asking a question and giving an opinion. While this contract pays less than his earlier enormous one, I wouldn't say KG signed that low a deal. He still will be making around 20 million a yr for his mid thirties. Not like he's on the vet minimum.

Exactly.  Most people can agree his MVP years are past.  His numbers last year were 16-8-3.  I just thought 24mil was a little extreme for that, and the 3 of them are making WAY more than our other 2 starters.

[crownsy]

Before this year I never really paid attention to contracts, just the players.  But now that our window is closing with the big 3, I'm all nervous because we desperately need some support if we want a good chance to get back on top.  So i take a look at our contracts and it turns out we are already like 15mil over the cap, so we can only sign 1 player.  In conclusion, this sucks.  Half of our bench doesn't even play, so i feel like we're severely disabled.  Then i take a look at the top of the list and i realized the big 3 are all being paid the league maximum.  Actually, Garnett is about 5mil over somehow.  So i add them together and it turns out just the 3 of them are over the cap for the whole team.  Why don't these guys take a freakin pay cut and help out their team?  Getting 20mil for being the league MVP is one thing, but Ray Allen barely made the all-star team.
Last year we lost Posey, Cassell, and Brown, and we gained nobody.
Now we're possibly losing Powe and Davis, and it's up to House if he wants to stay.  If we can't sign anybody, then when everyone's contracts run out we're gonna be in big trouble.  Out of the 14 guys on our roster 3 of them aren't even guaranteed, 3 of them have barely played in this league, and 1 of them is the 3rd to last draft pick.  So other than our 5 starters, that leaves Tony Allen and Scalabrine.  Danny better have something up his sleeve for 2010.  I'm looking at the page right now and we've only got about 4-5 guys guaranteed for the year after next.  It's gonna suck if everyone wants out, because it seems not many people want in.

Learn the NBA salary rules. There are no pay cuts in the NBA, unless you are talking about buyouts. A fan slightly literate about contracts knows that KG's contract was signed before max contracts, and is a major reason why shut limits were created.

The big 3 had their contracts before the big 3 were assembled. KG's 3 year extension that is now beginning decreases his pay.

No need to be so snide. The poster was just asking a question and giving an opinion. While this contract pays less than his earlier enormous one, I wouldn't say KG signed that low a deal. He still will be making around 20 million a yr for his mid thirties. Not like he's on the vet minimum.

Exactly.  Most people can agree his MVP years are past.  His numbers last year were 16-8-3.  I just thought 24mil was a little extreme for that, and the 3 of them are making WAY more than our other 2 starters.

yes, because those 3 are max contract players, and our other two starters are a solid defensive center and a PG on his rookie deal which is capped.

That's how the salary cap works...

[timepiece33]

We have our window now.  We will have flexibility as these guys come off their contracts.  It's just a matter of "when" we want to exercise that option.  The issue that we have is that we are in reasonable cap position next year with Allen's contract coming off the books ... but moves we make now might change that point. 

 

The future flexibility is not so easy. The fact is, if Ray Allen expires as a Celtic we lose him as an asset in that he's a max expiring. The C's won't be under the cap to enable us the ability to land another. However, we can conceivable extent Rondo and resign Allen at a half the money he's making now which would be an issue if Ray wasn't expiring until 2011.

It is pretty easy.  There might be some difficult decisions, but if we decide to "keep Rondo", we can time the signings to get a FA in Ray's slot AND it doesn't have to be an $18MM player.  It could be a $10MM player, which would get us a Turkoglu type player.

[BballTim]

Exactly.  Most people can agree his MVP years are past.  His numbers last year were 16-8-3.  I just thought 24mil was a little extreme for that, and the 3 of them are making WAY more than our other 2 starters.

  You can't judge a player like KG just by his numbers. In 07-08 he was 3rd in the MVP voting and 1st team all-nba. Last year, despite missing 25 games, he was first team all defense. He might not have any MVPs in his future but he's still a top 5-6 player in the league. His pay is so high because he signed a huge deal before max contracts came into being.

[Jon]

Exactly.  Most people can agree his MVP years are past.  His numbers last year were 16-8-3.  I just thought 24mil was a little extreme for that, and the 3 of them are making WAY more than our other 2 starters.

  You can't judge a player like KG just by his numbers. In 07-08 he was 3rd in the MVP voting and 1st team all-nba. Last year, despite missing 25 games, he was first team all defense. He might not have any MVPs in his future but he's still a top 5-6 player in the league. His pay is so high because he signed a huge deal before max contracts came into being.

I agree that his MVP years are over, but not because of a talent dip.  It's because the people that vote are more concerned about stats than anything else.  KG's not.  Also, Doc will keep his minutes low enough that he won't be putting up big numbers again. 

But I don't think there's any evidence yet to suggest that he's not at the top of his game still.  If he wasn't, the C's wouldn't have won the title in '08.  Now we may see him slow down next season, but I don't think you can say that yet. 

[Fan from VT]

We have our window now.  We will have flexibility as these guys come off their contracts.  It's just a matter of "when" we want to exercise that option.  The issue that we have is that we are in reasonable cap position next year with Allen's contract coming off the books ... but moves we make now might change that point. 

 

The future flexibility is not so easy. The fact is, if Ray Allen expires as a Celtic we lose him as an asset in that he's a max expiring. The C's won't be under the cap to enable us the ability to land another. However, we can conceivable extent Rondo and resign Allen at a half the money he's making now which would be an issue if Ray wasn't expiring until 2011.

It is pretty easy.  There might be some difficult decisions, but if we decide to "keep Rondo", we can time the signings to get a FA in Ray's slot AND it doesn't have to be an $18MM player.  It could be a $10MM player, which would get us a Turkoglu type player.

Not really. There's no realistic way to sign a 10 million dollar free agent and extend rondo. we could try to let rondo and ray go and then sign a free agent, or extend rondo and try to extend ray for cheap, but we are SO FAR over the cap right now that even when Ray's money comes off the books there still won't be room for a max offer. Going into next off-season, if we keep only they guys with guaranteed contracts (KG, Perk, PP), we'd be at around 45 million, leaving about 11 million in room under the cap. If we extend rondo, that eats into the cap room, because the only way to get the cap space would be to renounce rondo's bird rights, otherwise there's a "salary hold" that prevents teams from first using cap space to sign a free agent then turning around and signing their own free agent using bird rights.


So basically, the only way to add a max type of player to our roster in the next offseason would be by signing and trading Ray to a max deal (extremely unlikely, as which team would want that?), trading PP or KG, or by trading Ray now for a guy making max money.  But there is no way to keep rondo and still add a major free agent next year.

[Jon]

We have our window now.  We will have flexibility as these guys come off their contracts.  It's just a matter of "when" we want to exercise that option.  The issue that we have is that we are in reasonable cap position next year with Allen's contract coming off the books ... but moves we make now might change that point. 

 

The future flexibility is not so easy. The fact is, if Ray Allen expires as a Celtic we lose him as an asset in that he's a max expiring. The C's won't be under the cap to enable us the ability to land another. However, we can conceivable extent Rondo and resign Allen at a half the money he's making now which would be an issue if Ray wasn't expiring until 2011.

It is pretty easy.  There might be some difficult decisions, but if we decide to "keep Rondo", we can time the signings to get a FA in Ray's slot AND it doesn't have to be an $18MM player.  It could be a $10MM player, which would get us a Turkoglu type player.

Not really. There's no realistic way to sign a 10 million dollar free agent and extend rondo. we could try to let rondo and ray go and then sign a free agent, or extend rondo and try to extend ray for cheap, but we are SO FAR over the cap right now that even when Ray's money comes off the books there still won't be room for a max offer. Going into next off-season, if we keep only they guys with guaranteed contracts (KG, Perk, PP), we'd be at around 45 million, leaving about 11 million in room under the cap. If we extend rondo, that eats into the cap room, because the only way to get the cap space would be to renounce rondo's bird rights, otherwise there's a "salary hold" that prevents teams from first using cap space to sign a free agent then turning around and signing their own free agent using bird rights.


So basically, the only way to add a max type of player to our roster in the next offseason would be by signing and trading Ray to a max deal (extremely unlikely, as which team would want that?), trading PP or KG, or by trading Ray now for a guy making max money.  But there is no way to keep rondo and still add a major free agent next year.

True, however we could also extend Ray at more reasonable money, and still trade him down the line for either a) a player making comparable money to whatever his new contract is or b) package him at his new salary (say 10 million a year) with another player or two to get a max contract player. 

Or we can just extend Ray and Paul until the end of KG's contract and have three large salaries to potentially trade in a few year or let expire. 

That works too. 

[mgent]

I'll agree with you on one thing.  I never understood why the great players always have to have huge contracts.  If you demand or sign for a huge contract the team doesn't have that much in salary cap left to sign other great players.  Lets just suppose Dwayne Wade signs a 5 year contract at $6 million a year.  I understand he is worth way more, but doesn't that give him a better chance to be on a team that has a chance to win championships.  Yes $20 million a year is $14 million more per year than $6 million, but $6 million is still a lot of money, its not like you are poor.  You are still getting $6 million a year for playing basketball.  99.9999% of the people in this country would be more than happy with that. You can do just about as much with your life at $6 million as you can with $20 million either way you are still going to be rich.  But nobody does it. Every big star gets a huge contract.  I only heard of one example way back in the day of a big player lowering his contract to sign better talent.  I think it was Magic Johnson in the early 90's or something so they could sign Sedalle Threat or somebody like that I can't remember exactly, but I haven't heard of many examples that is for sure.
Now I have one question to ask, James Posey left to sign for more money in NO. What if he signed for less in Boston, then won another championship.  Would he get more money for winning the title in bonuses and possible endorsements? And would it be possible for him to actually make more money signing for Boston for less and winning another title, then signing for more in New Orleans and not getting to the finals.  Let me know.  Thanks.

You are right.  I know personally I'd just be happy to play basketball and would be happy if i only made enough to live.  I find it stupid that Shaq is making 20mil and LeBron is making 15mil, and the fact that Allen is making 10 times more money than Rondo when they are both equally needed for our team.  Last year Posey was a winner, now he's a loser... was it truly worth it?
This is an ever-growing problem, the salary cap and player's personal greed has more say than it should.  If we ignore the cap, all the stars would migrate to the same team and the league wouldn't be as interesting, but then you try to tell a guy like Posey he doesn't deserve more than 7mil to come off our bench, and they go to a losing team for more money and playing time.  It's like we can never win.

[mgent]

We have our window now.  We will have flexibility as these guys come off their contracts.  It's just a matter of "when" we want to exercise that option.  The issue that we have is that we are in reasonable cap position next year with Allen's contract coming off the books ... but moves we make now might change that point. 

 

The future flexibility is not so easy. The fact is, if Ray Allen expires as a Celtic we lose him as an asset in that he's a max expiring. The C's won't be under the cap to enable us the ability to land another. However, we can conceivable extent Rondo and resign Allen at a half the money he's making now which would be an issue if Ray wasn't expiring until 2011.

It is pretty easy.  There might be some difficult decisions, but if we decide to "keep Rondo", we can time the signings to get a FA in Ray's slot AND it doesn't have to be an $18MM player.  It could be a $10MM player, which would get us a Turkoglu type player.

Not really. There's no realistic way to sign a 10 million dollar free agent and extend rondo. we could try to let rondo and ray go and then sign a free agent, or extend rondo and try to extend ray for cheap, but we are SO FAR over the cap right now that even when Ray's money comes off the books there still won't be room for a max offer. Going into next off-season, if we keep only they guys with guaranteed contracts (KG, Perk, PP), we'd be at around 45 million, leaving about 11 million in room under the cap. If we extend rondo, that eats into the cap room, because the only way to get the cap space would be to renounce rondo's bird rights, otherwise there's a "salary hold" that prevents teams from first using cap space to sign a free agent then turning around and signing their own free agent using bird rights.


So basically, the only way to add a max type of player to our roster in the next offseason would be by signing and trading Ray to a max deal (extremely unlikely, as which team would want that?), trading PP or KG, or by trading Ray now for a guy making max money.  But there is no way to keep rondo and still add a major free agent next year.

True, however we could also extend Ray at more reasonable money, and still trade him down the line for either a) a player making comparable money to whatever his new contract is or b) package him at his new salary (say 10 million a year) with another player or two to get a max contract player. 

Or we can just extend Ray and Paul until the end of KG's contract and have three large salaries to potentially trade in a few year or let expire. 

That works too. 

Just to summarize, we can basically go 1 of 2 ways.  I personally believe if we extend our starters for the next 3 years (end of KG's contract), no matter what our bench looks like, we will have a good chance of winning.  In order to give us the favor, we will at least need some core support like we had in 08 (Posey, House, Brown, Davis, Powe).  Unfortunately, extending the starters will give us NO room.  If we don't extend, in the year after next we will have room to work with as several large contracts expire (Allen, House, Scal, and TA).  We could still be a top team with a new SG and a couple of decent back-ups, but we'd be taking a chance whereas we can pretty much guarantee Allen (and Pierce) aren't gonna suck in the next 3 years (probably after that though).  In order to give us bench support we would probably need to make a trade though, the tough part would be finding a team willing to make it (keep Powe and House, maybe Hudson and trade Scal, TA, Davis, Giddens, Walker, and Pruitt for some sort of center and PG).

[timepiece33]

Not really. There's no realistic way to sign a 10 million dollar free agent and extend rondo. we could try to let rondo and ray go and then sign a free agent, or extend rondo and try to extend ray for cheap, but we are SO FAR over the cap right now that even when Ray's money comes off the books there still won't be room for a max offer.

Technically, that is not true.  With current contracts, if we used today's "cap" room as an indicator, we'd be at around $13MM under the cap.  That is with the qualifying offer to Rondo included.  

http://hoopshype.com/salaries/boston.htm

The biggest issue is that if we sign several players to multi year contracts in this offseason, that flexibility erodes a lot next year.  

That is a separate decision than to "keep Ray" or trade Ray.  If we sign Davis to an extension AND bring in an MLE guy on a multi year deal, then you start talking about a decision to make on Ray.

If we sign an MLE guy like Grant Hill to a 1 year deal (much like we did Posey) and aren't forced to provide Davis a multi year contract, then you have a completely different equation.  We have the ability to bring in somebody at a $12MM (assuming we draft a player) figure.

That's why I stated there would be difficult decisions to be made in this offseason.  Personally, I'd rather trade Allen, Scalabrine, Giddens, and Pruitt to GS for Corey Maggette, sign a MLE guy to a 3 year contract to correspond with Garnett), resign Davis to a 3 year contract, and go from there.

[timepiece33]

Just to summarize, we can basically go 1 of 2 ways.  I personally believe if we extend our starters for the next 3 years (end of KG's contract), no matter what our bench looks like, we will have a good chance of winning.  In order to give us the favor, we will at least need some core support like we had in 08 (Posey, House, Brown, Davis, Powe).  Unfortunately, extending the starters will give us NO room.  If we don't extend, in the year after next we will have room to work with as several large contracts expire (Allen, House, Scal, and TA).  We could still be a top team with a new SG and a couple of decent back-ups, but we'd be taking a chance whereas we can pretty much guarantee Allen (and Pierce) aren't gonna suck in the next 3 years (probably after that though).  In order to give us bench support we would probably need to make a trade though, the tough part would be finding a team willing to make it (keep Powe and House, maybe Hudson and trade Scal, TA, Davis, Giddens, Walker, and Pruitt for some sort of center and PG).

Or we could
* Offer an MLE and LLE a 1 year contract
* Hold off on extending Rondo
* Let go of Davis if he gets a multi year contract
* Have $12MM to spend on a FA next year.   

That might not be popular, but it is an option.

I'd rather go all in, extend Ray for two years ... and use the cap flexibility of Scalabrine, Allen, etc to get a legitimate 6th man.