Boston/Atlanta Blockbuster

[sdceltsfan]

After reading all the offseason articles about Ray and Rondo in particular, I have come to the conclusion that both of these players may be at their most valubal points in their respective careers as far as trading chips go. Ray is obvious with his huge expiring contract, and the fact that he still has a few gallons left in the tank. Rondo's value is a little more tricky, because he has yet to sign his contract. I personally would not want to be a part of the Celtics front office by the end next season when Rondo's agent throws out the figure his client is demanding.

   I would have no problem paying Rondo, as he is a top 3-5 pg at the moment; however out of those top tier PG's, he is the most engigmatic in that you really don't know which Rondo you are going to get night in and night out. CP3, Deron Williams, Tony Parker, shoot I would even say Nash and Billips are more consistent in their twilight years as far as being a go-to guy. There were games in this playoffs where Rondo definitley lead us to victory, but then the following game he was nowhere to be found. His leadership and responsibility is not there yet, especially for Max-contract money that basically straps the team unless Ray resigns on the cheap and PP takes the hometown discount with his opt-out clause. To me, that is a dumb and nieve stance to take from an organizational standpoint, to rely on not one, but 3 players to do "the right thing for the team." The Ubuntu thing seemed to fly out the window once KG's knee injury went down; ultimately the players know to do what is in their best interest, which I certainly can't blame them for.

  As a Celtics fan, would like to see this team competeing for NBA titles and making the playoffs even after our superstars of Right Now are gone. This is why I would prefer that we take a proactive stance in this offseason, and shop both Rondo and Allen, because there are definitely players/picks that we can get back to make us a better team, IMO. Packaging both Rondo and Allen in the same blockbuster trade, gives our trading partner both huge cap relief to be major players in 2010-11 Free Agency, and a young prospect that will likely have an all-star appearance or two. I would say we get a greater, more even return in doing so in this market.

This is the trade I came up with:

Boston Trades: Ray Allen, Rondo, and Tony Allen

Atlanta Trades: Joe Johnson, Josh Smith, Acie Law, #19 pick, and a future 1st rounder (top 3 or 5 protected for a season or two)

    With the players alone it already works out on Trade Checker, the salaries match up, and Atlanta adding the draft picks gives us further compensation in that they are getting the best contract (Allen) and the best prospect in the trade (Rondo). This allows Danny Ainge to get back in the draft, but at the spot where he seems to make the best picks (10-20 range). This draft will have a replacement PG for Rondo on the board (Ty Lawson, Jeff Teague if he slides). We could get a solid wing to develop off the bench (Gerald Henderson, James Johnson), rather than over-trading for unproven potential busts in the lottery, making our trade regretable in one season's time, or someone like Earl Clark could slide down the draft board and fall into our lap.

   The future 1st rounder also is key, because I don't think the Hawks will be much better of a team, so we get another assett in re-building for the future. If they really tank, Allen could be bought out and then re-sign with us also, who knows.

Joe Johnson is a younger, athletic, healthier replacement for Ray Allen, who can get to the basket and more importantly, the free throw line more effectively at this point in his career. He is also in a contract year so he will play his heart out, and when we win a title, then we only have to rely on Pierce (rather than Pierce, Rondo, and Allen) in the 2010 offseason taking a hometown discount to give Johnson an extension, rather than potentially way overpaying Rondo.

The real key point of the deal for us is Josh Smith though. The kid obviously has some mental issues, but I think that they are due to his environment in Atlanta. He would be able to back up both PP and KG giving us way more matchup flexibility with bigger teams like Orlando. Josh Smith wins 6th man of the year on this Celtics team and we become even better defensively on the inside.  Smith can also start at SF or PF during the regular season to give PP and KG fresh legs come playoff time.

Then all we have to do is split the MLE to bring in a backup C and either Marbury or another vet-pg, and then our team is more atheletic and well rounded. We also still hang on to Scals expiring contract, which will be a bigger trade asset towards the deadline if we need further bench help.

The team looks like this:

PG: (Vet PG), Acie Law, Ty Lawson (w/ #19),  Pruitt (probably bye bye)

SG: Joe Johnson,  *Eddie House (or someone with LLE), JR Giddens

SF: Paul Pierce, Josh Smith, Bill Walker, Scal (where he belongs, not as a big man....ever)

PF: Kevin Garnett, Josh Smith, *Powe ( I think we get him on the cheap due to his injury)

C: Perkins, (Vet C), Powe, Mikki Moore (bye bye)

 

We could also have a starting lineup like this if need be:

PG: Joe Johnson    SG: PP     SF: J. Smith    PF: KG     C: Perk 

Free Agent pickups for this lineup ideally would be Chris Wilcox or McDyess for a backup big and for PG I honestly don't mind Marbury again or even Ramon Sessions (both of those guys in a 1 year deal would play their ass off I think). Then a G like Anthony Parker, Anthony Carter, or Luther Head with the LLE would give us a way more solid bench then last year.

I think we over-value the PG position in Boston having gone so long without a solid one, but if we don't have a bonafide top-3 PG, it is a waste for a team to use max-money there. Rondo still has problems being a consistent scorer, so you can't depend on him in the game by giving him the ball and expecting him to put up points. Look how far the Lake-show got this year with their gaping hole at the PG spot.

And if you think there isn't enough depth at Guard then the #19 pick can be used there instead, or if Earl Clark were to slide.

Is this idea insane, or too much to ask?

[Jon Niednagel]

I like the deal from our perspective because Joe Johnson is one of my favorites. He is not a point guard though, so that situation would still need to be addressed. JJ's contract is also expiring the same year as Ray's, so ATL won't really save much money by taking Ray's contract. They would essentially be swapping Ray for JJ, which is a down-grade. I know ATL supposedly wants to get rid of Smith's contract, but he is also a really good, young, talented player. He may be a headache, but plenty of teams would kill to have him. Then, you have ATL giving the C's two first-round picks. I don't think Rondo, down-grading the two, and saving few million next year is better than keeping JJ, Josh, and the two first-round picks. I'm all for this trade, but I don't think you'll get the same response from an Atlanta board. TP for effort.

[sdceltsfan]

What about swapping out Law for Speedy Claxton to take on more cap? Tony Allen is also another 2.5 mil of expiring cash. Also, Ray Allen's contract is like 4 or 5 mil more than Johnson, which is a considerable about for Atlanta. The second 1st rounder was more of a consideration if someone thought we were giving up too much. It's also more difficult to pinpoint who is getting the best player (Johnson over Allen < Rondo over Smith). Smith isn't working out in Atlanta other than a highlight show and Rondo becomes their PG of the future.
 Also, if the Hawks have a bad season and get a high lotto-pick, Allen's 18 mil (plus T. Allen's 2.5) off the books allows them to pay Rondo and go after another quality player in 2010. If Atlanta did nothing, they stagnate with Johnson, Smith and Marvin Williams in 2010 which has already proven insufficient and costly to their organization. You can build around Rondo; we unfortunately have a few max-contracts as it is so we will probably lose him next year or have to overpay him, then lose Allen, which makes us take a step back.

[paintitgreen]

I just don't see any reason why Atlanta would give up Joe Johnson. Especially if they're also giving away Josh Smith.

[Moranis]

I just don't see any reason why Atlanta would give up Joe Johnson. Especially if they're also giving away Josh Smith.

and draft picks also.  absolutely terrible trade for Atlanta.  Some of the recent trade offers are just ridiculous, but this one may take the cake.

[Jon]

I agree with the sentiment of most.  It's probably too much talent for Atlanta to give up and it doesn't leave us with the necessary parts to compete in the short term, which is what we'd need to do with Pierce and Garnett still on board.  It'd be great that Perk or Smith would be a great backup, but who is going to start at point guard?  If it takes them a year or two to figure it out, Pierce and Garnett's window would probably already be closed. 

[sdceltsfan]

    Ok so obviously the future 1st is too much. I also removed Law from the deal and added Speedy Claxton to have us take on more cap. I don't see how the level of talent we are getting is much if at all greater than Atlanta. We get more youth, but they will be able to reconfigure their team, which shouldn't be built around Joe Johnson. As good of a player as he is, he should not be the featured player on any team. It's not our fault that our team is willing to spend more money to put the necessary pieces around our stars.
    Atlanta knows their team can't get much better unless they pony up into luxury-land, and judging by their unwillingness to extend Pachullia and Marvin Williams to even keep what they already have intact, says that they are looking to go in a new direction. They have already expressed their intrest in losing Smith's contract (which IMO is pretty reasonable for his numbers).
    Does this make Atlanta worse for next year, yes. But it does allow them to make a huge jump the following year by having 20+ mil to use in Freey Agency (plus a high lotto pick). If they leave their team as is, they remain in the 18-22 best team range, and Joe Johnson probably signs else where in 2010 anyway. Fire sale's have happened with far greater discrepencies in return (see Memphis' hand delivery of Gasol to L.A.). This is far from a giveaway from both the financial and talent perspective.
   To those looking at the trade as lop-sided, you are looking at it as an Allen for Johnson swap (an obvious downgrade for logevity), but it really is Rondo for Joe Johnson, and Ray Allen's contract for Josh Smith, Speedy Claxton's contract, and the #19. People on this board are suggesting that we can get Caron Butler and the #5 for Ray Allen, either of which is not happening straight up. If we got a high lotto-pick plus a solid wing or backup center for Ray Allen we should pull the trigger, but I don't think anyone is going to give us a target to shoot at. Atlanta gets two all-star calibur starters (one a possible top 3 PG not even in his prime), we get an all-star, a borderline starter/6th man, and a potential prospect.

Worst case scenario....we just make a push for Joe Johnson in 2010/11.

[Moranis]

Dude, Joe Johnson is the best player in the trade and is an expiring contract.  Josh Smith may very well be the second best player in the trade, no worse than third best, and certainly has a reasonable contract for his ability (which is probably in the same range that Rondo would re-sign for). 

Atlanta may go into a fire sale, but they aren't going to take on worse players that have the same or worse contract situations.  If Atlanta does move Smith it will be for a first or second year player next year that will be locked up long term for a cheap contract (obviously they would need an expiring contract). 

Something reasonable that the Hawks might do would be Ray Allen and a future first for Josh Smith and Speedy Claxton (and filler).  I'm not saying either team would do that, but that is the sort of deal it would be to land Smith.  The Hawks might also consider moving Johnson in the trade instead of Smith, especially if they don't think they can re-sign him.