Amare/Dudley for Ray/Walker and cash??

[nickagneta]

Let's say for instance that Phoenix, in trying to unload Amare Stoudemire would be willing to a deal with Boston in which they get Ray Allen and Bill Walker and say $2 million for Amare and Jared Dudley. Now the reason I say this goes down is because I think this thread can discuss a couple of different elements:

1.) If the Celtics do a trade like this, then obviously the MLE can be directed elsewhere and will need to be used to find a starting SG. In trading Ray for a superstar like Amare, Danny accomplishes a bunch of things but opens up some problems that will need to be addressed.. First, he would need to decide if any of the SGs in free agency will take and are worth the full MLE so we can adequately replace Ray. Second thing, he would be in the driver's seat in the Baby contract situation and could seriously start looking at a complex sign and trade with Baby and maybe either Tony or Scal for someone to fill the starting SG role. Third, he would need to decide if Jared Dudly is good enough to fill the backup SF role.

2.) Is a trade like this where Ray goes almost straight up to Phoenix work better for both teams than getting all complicated? Phoenix could use a starting SG because, let's face it, Barbosa was born to be an energy guy, sixth man. He's just perfect for that role. When starting and playing 35+ MPG, he just isn't as effective. Ray is a huge expiring deal and sending a couple of million to offset the amount in the discrepancies of the contracts doesn't hurt a team that is already hurting financially. It also gives them Walker who I think, long term probably has way more upside than Dudley as his athletic tools far distance those of Dudley. Dudley is mature and smart for a young guy and plays well and is more NBA ready right now, but with Bill Walker's athleticism, if Walker comes around, he could be a much better player eventually for Phoenix than Dudley. And of course it gets rid of Amare's $17 million opt out contract for the following year.

I really don't know if Phoenix would go this way. They might want young players and picks or they might want just expiring contracts  or they might want a combo of both. But they seem to definitely want to part ways with Amare and sometimes the K.I.S.S. philosophy of keeping it simple, really is the best way to go. I'm not sure how much more simple it gets than Amare/Ray almost straight up with cash to grease the wheels.

But I'm not sure I like this type of trade because I'm really not enamored with the free agents at the SG position:

Shooting Guards
Unrestricted Free Agents

    * Allen Iverson
    * Wally Szczerbiak
    * Bobby Jackson
    * Ben Gordon
    * Desmond Mason
    * Anthony Parker
    * Damon Jones
    * Keith Bogans
    * Rodney Carney
    * Ronnie Price
    * Morris Almond
    * Maurice Ager
    * Gerald Green
    * James Singleton
    * Dahntay Jones
    * Von Wafer
    * Shannon Brown
    * Quinton Ross
    * Kareem Rush
    * Juan Dixon


Restricted Free Agents

    * Rashad McCants
    * Joey Graham
    * Linas Kleiza
    * Carlos Delfino (If he returns from overseas)


Early Termination Options

    * Kobe Bryant
    * Jamal Crawford
    * Quentin Richardson
    * Trenton Hassell
    * Michael Finley
    * Ricky Davis
    * Devin Brown

Is there really one player amongst the RFA's that we should even consider signing as a starter? I don't think so unless Danny is still in love with Allen Iverson, which I hope not. Still a top six of Perk, Amare, KG, Pierce, AI, and Rondo with all six sacrificing their games for the greater good, would be pretty [dang] good. But I hate AI's game, maybe even more than Tony Allen's, because he could have made players around him so much better if he put up 12 assists a night, and believe me, he could have if he wanted to.

Maybe offer the MLE to QRich if he opts out but I doubt he would take that amount especially in Boston given his distaste for the team and his huge ego. Jones and Parker are nice players but they are bench role players in my opinion. Kleiza seems to be the only player I might offer money to to start and even then, I doubt Denver doesn't match a fully stacked MLE and I'm not sure Kleiza is worth a full 5 year MLE contract.

So I guess what I am saying is, if Danny is thinking about a Ray for Amare deal, he just might have to get complicated and bring in a third or fourth team or already have a package deal done sending other Celtics out for a SG because besides Amare, he's going to need to bring in a starting SG because I don't think he will be able to do it through free agency.

BTW, I included Dudley because he makes about a million a year more than Walker and it helps evening out the money and also because I think he might be a better prospect than Dudley with a higher ceiling, but I think Dudley is already a good backup SF option who could guard PFs in the mold of Rashard Lewis if he has to.

[Roy Hobbs]

I think if Danny trades Ray, Anthony Parker would be more than capable of stepping in as a starter for a season or two.  He's the only free agent shooting guard that I like as a starter.

Another option would be to move Paul to SG, and attempt to sign a SF.  This opens up a few more options, including Grant Hill, Matt Barnes, and others.

The last option, of course, would be to move Tony Allen into the starting lineup.  Danny has talked multiple times about how Tony is extremely effective as a starter, so I can see him pursuing this option.

However, I don't think Phoenix will move Amare for expiring contracts, especially with Amare' likely to opt out of his deal (making his current deal, essentially, an expiring contract).

[nickagneta]

I think if Danny trades Ray, Anthony Parker would be more than capable of stepping in as a starter for a season or two.  He's the only free agent shooting guard that I like as a starter.

Another option would be to move Paul to SG, and attempt to sign a SF.  This opens up a few more options, including Grant Hill, Matt Barnes, and others.

The last option, of course, would be to move Tony Allen into the starting lineup.  Danny has talked multiple times about how Tony is extremely effective as a starter, so I can see him pursuing this option.

However, I don't think Phoenix will move Amare for expiring contracts, especially with Amare' likely to opt out of his deal (making his current deal, essentially, an expiring contract).

Lots of questions for you Roy as I value your opinion:
If Amare opts out of his contract Roy, is he actually going to make any more money in 2010-2011 than he would have if he just stayed?

I mean, he already had a max contract so is the $17.6 he is going to make in 2010-11 on his current contract, which would be his total 9th year in the league, the most he could make?

The Coon FAQ Salary Cap page has max for 9 years at $16.5 but it only goes out to 2009? Could he just decide to stay because he could wait for the following year where he will conceivably be the most sought after guy?

Or is it better to opt out and get the instant security?

Also, I really don't like Parker as a starter. He has a bad year shooting as compared to the years before and I hate his defense. But he is a guy that will spread the floor and hit good FT%. But admittedly, in a very weak group, he probably, along with Kleiza and Richardson, are the only guys I would even contemplate bring in for a starting position.

You know my feelings on Tony.

And I'm not sure Paul can play the 2 for a whole season. I think he would be run into the ground after chasing smaller guys around on defense all the time. Although, if we could land Marion or Odom with the MLE and we had Amare, KG, Marion/Odom, Pierce and Rondo starting, I don't think we are the team that is going to have to worry about matchupsWe could bring Perk, Scal, Dudley, House, Giddens and Pruitt off the bench and never have to worry about which three starters are on the floor carrying the scoring load.

[Who]

Lots of questions for you Roy as I value your opinion:
If Amare opts out of his contract Roy, is he actually going to make any more money in 2010-2011 than he would have if he just stayed?

I mean, he already had a max contract so is the $17.6 he is going to make in 2010-11 on his current contract, which would be his total 9th year in the league, the most he could make?

The Coon FAQ Salary Cap page has max for 9 years at $16.5 but it only goes out to 2009? Could he just decide to stay because he could wait for the following year where he will conceivably be the most sought after guy?

Or is it better to opt out and get the instant security?

My understanding of it is that Amare can earn 30% of the cap. So it all depends on where the cap ends up.

If $17.6mil was 30% of the cap, then the cap would be $58.7mil. So any cap mark above $58.7mil gives Amare an immediate increase in pay, plus long term security. Anything below $58.7mil, and Amare would be taking a small pay cut, but also gaining long term security.

I think the long term financial security is the most important issue on the table. Even if he has to take a slight pay cut, it's still the best option for him. Amare should opt out, and should sign a long extension.

[nickagneta]

Lots of questions for you Roy as I value your opinion:
If Amare opts out of his contract Roy, is he actually going to make any more money in 2010-2011 than he would have if he just stayed?

I mean, he already had a max contract so is the $17.6 he is going to make in 2010-11 on his current contract, which would be his total 9th year in the league, the most he could make?

The Coon FAQ Salary Cap page has max for 9 years at $16.5 but it only goes out to 2009? Could he just decide to stay because he could wait for the following year where he will conceivably be the most sought after guy?

Or is it better to opt out and get the instant security?

My understanding of it is that Amare can earn 30% of the cap. So it all depends on where the cap ends up.

If $17.6mil was 30% of the cap, then the cap would be $58.7mil. So any cap mark above $58.7mil gives Amare an immediate increase in pay, plus long term security. Anything below $58.7mil, and Amare would be taking a small pay cut, but also gaining long term security.

I think the long term financial security is the most important issue on the table. Even if he has to take a slight pay cut, it's still the best option for him. Amare should opt out, and should sign a long extension.

I think current speculation has the cap for 2009-2010 at around $57.3 with thoughts of it falling down towards $55-56 million the following year. Being conservative, let's say by 2010-2011 the cap is $56 million, then the max for a 9 year vet would be about $16.8 million.

That would be a loss of about $868,000 for one year for the opportunity to get security long term and not have to worry about an injury or a drop off in game effecting your next contract. Almost a million dollars is a lot of money but I think you are right. But if he gets injured this next year, I would expect that he wouldn't be opting out.

Of course the team trading for him will probably lock him up long term anyway.

[Who]

Payroll concerns?

Would having Amare, KG and Perkins together not cause a payroll squeeze?

Once you give Rondo that extension. Plus you have Pierce. Isn't that about $72mil a season? You still have no two guard and a fairly empty bench, so you're looking at a payroll of around $87+mil?

Second Trade

Would the team be better off trading Kendrick Perkins or Kevin Garnett for that shooting guard?

Then start Amare and whoever the remaining big man is.

Smaller Option

I think that a trade would be the best way for the team to find a solid starting two guard. I don't think Free Agency has an answer, and it's not worth sacrificing a year of contention, so parting with future draft picks may be worth it.

Say Brian Scalabrine and a 1st round pick for Azubuike?

Anyway, expiring contracts plus a future pick or two in return for a solid two way wing player who's on a good contract. Preferably for less than $3-4mil per annum, but you may have to go as high as the MLE.

I think control over the contract, and limiting it's per annum value, is very important if the team were to have so much money tied up in it's three big men. I think that's best achieved through a trade, for a guy like Azubuike or a Mo Evans. Someone at around $3mil per annum to keep the payroll in check.

[bobdelt]

I just dont think Amare is a winner. After reading 7 seconds or less - I think he's too selfish and not there mentally enough to win it.

He had a knee injury, but never showed up to multiple MRI appointments until it was too late and missed an entire season. He has two bad knees, and this eye thing - and aparently he hasnt been keeping in shape.

I dont think Doc Rivers wants to baby sit this kid. We already have KG and Perk. We need a good role player at the 4/5 - not a star.