Rajon Rondo VS Mike Conley + #2 Pick or Gay

[rondohondo]

I posted this thread about a month ago, but with the recent rumor of Rondo for Conley and Gay just thought I would bump it up so you guys can see a comparison of Rondo and Conley



I'm starting to think a deal for the # 2 pick could make some sense for the C's , but this would have to be the trade.

Bos sends: Rajon Rondo + Giddens
Mem sends: Mike Conley + #2 Pick


Rajon Rondo       Mike Conley


    Age 20            Age 20

     78 G              53 G
     25 GS             46 GS
   23.5 MPG            26 MPG
    6.4 PPG        9.4 PPG
    3.8 APG        4.2 APG
    1.8 TOPG       1.6 TOPG
1.6 STL         1 STL
3.7 RPG       2.6 RPG
 41  FG%            43 FG%
 20  3P%            33 3P%
 64  FT%             73 FT%


      Age 21             Age 21

      78   G             82   G                       
      77   GS            61   GS
      23.5 MPG         30.6 MPG
      10.6 PPG         10.9 PPG
    5.1 APG         4.3 APG
       1.9 TOPG          1.7 TOPG
    1.7 STL          1.1 STL
    4.2 RPG          3.4 RPG
    49  FG%            44 FG%
       26  3P%           40.6 3P%
       61  FT%             81 FT%


      Age 22                Age 22
 
       80 G                                     
       80 GS
       33 MPG
       12 PPG
      8.2 APG
      2.6 TOPG
      1.9 STL
      5.2 RPG
     50.5  FG%
       31  3P%
       64  FT%


While Mike Conley's overall stats in 2008-09 weren't anything speacial, he really picked his play up after the all-star break. I found an interesting article on his progress last year here.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/152468-examining-down-the-stretch-mike-conley

Again, 10.8 ppg, 3.4 rpg, and 4.2 apg are not what you expect from a cornerstone point guard.  But at 15.0 points, 5.7 assists, 3.8 rebounds, 1.5 steals, and 1.7 three-pointers since the break, Conley has elevated himself into the top-10 point guard debate.

 We’re no longer looking at Conley and wondering whether or not he can be successful without Oden.  In fact we’re looking at Mr. Oden and wondering whether or not he’ll be able to shine without his point guard by his side.   

Physical Features

-both players are about the same size 6'1 175LBS.
-Rondo has a slight speed advantage as Mike Conley is also very quick
-Rondo has better leaping ability

Winner- Rondo Slightly


Rebounding-

Rondo
It's no surprise to any of us Celtics fan that Rondo is a better rebounder. He is probably the best Rebounding PG in the league.

Conley
Although Conley is not in Rondo league as a rebounding PG ,he was right near the top 10 in RPG for PG's with 3.5 RPG in the 2008-09 season.

Winner: Rondo


Defense

Rajon Rondo

Rondo is one of the better defensive PG's in the league with his long arms he is able to get a lot of steals ranking 5th in the leauge in Steals per game, but he also gambles a lot and sometimes it hurts the Celtics badly. He kind of reminds me of a young Allen Iverson in the way he takes chances for steals on D, although I think he is a much better defender then Iverson ever was. He was names to the 2nd Team All Defensive team this year.

Mike Conley

While Conley isn't an all defensive player like Rondo at this point in his career he has the ability to play defense . He has quick feet which allows him to contain penetration into the paint. He might not get the amount of steals Rondo does but he might actually be better at preventing opposing PG's from getting into the lane because he doesn't gamble as much for steals. Conley avg'd 1 SPG in 2008-09

Winner: Rondo


Ball Handling and court vision

Rajon Rondo
This is a hard one to determine for me because so many thing factor into the amount of assists a PG averages. It appears Rondo has better court vision with the growth in the of APG by the years from 4APG TO 5APG to 8APG in his first three seasons.

Mike Conley
Mike Conley hasn't seen any big explosion in assists per year averaging basically the same 4.2 + 4.3 APG in his first 2 season's in the NBA,but you can also argue that if Mike Conley had PP , Ray Allen, Eddie House and KG to pass to, his assists would be around the 6-8 APG area. Rondo's assists didn't jump much until his 3 year in the NBA, which Mike Conley is about to enter . Conley also turned the ball over 1 less time than Rondo per game in the 2008-09 season with basically the same amount of MPG .

Winner: Rondo Slight edge


Shooting

Rajon Rondo
 We all know this is Rondo's biggest weakness . Rondo is very good at finishing at finishing at the rim, but his inability to at least semi consistently knock down a long 2 or 3 really hurts the Celtics half court offense . He has shown no real imporvement with his jump shot on long 2pt FG attempts or 3 pt attempts.

1st NBA Season- 21%
2nd NBA Season- 26%
3rd NBA Season- 31%

Rondo's free throw shooting hasn't really improved much over his first 3 seasons either. He is a career 63& FT shooter which is pretty bad for a PG. It has to be a cause for concern that he hasn't improved at the free throw line because if you can't improve your shot when no one is guarding you then it makes me wonder if he will ever be able to shoot at least semi consistently .

1st NBA Season- 65% FT
2nd NBA Season- 61% FT
3rd NBA Season- 64% FT

Mike Conley

This is an area Mike Conley has really showed improvement since entering the NBA. Conley has improved his 3pt shooting since his 1st and only season at Ohio state

OSU Freshmen Year- 30% 3P FG'S
   1st NBA season- 33% 3P FG'S
   2nd NBA season- 40% 3P FG'S

His free throw shooting has also showed a marked improvement since his only season at Ohio State

OSU Freshmen Year- 69% FT
   1st NBA Season- 73% FT
   2nd NBA Season- 82% FT

Winner- Conley by a lot

Intangibles

Rondo

Rondo has won an NBA championship as a starting PG and that has to count for something. He has performed at a high level on the biggest stage of the playoffs  and has come through about 75% of the time in the playoffs.

Conley
While Conley hasn't had nearly as much success in the NBA he did lead Ohio State to the NCAA Finals in his freshmen year along with Greg Oden and played really good in the championship. While it doesn't count for anything in the NBA ,I think the experience of playing in big pressure packed games does count for something.

Winner: Rondo Slightly


Contracts

Rondo

Rondo's contract will have to be extended by next off season. The have the ability to use a qualifying offer after next season. Rondo is likely to demand around 8-10 MIL per season for his next contract. If he could develop any kind of consistency with his jump shot, but it really worries me that he hasn't even improved his free throw shooting through his 1st 3 seasons. He is not always going to have Ray, PP and KG next to him and if he doesn't get a jump shot soon teams are just going to keep playing off him and make life harder for the C'S in the half court offense.

Conley
Conley is owed
3.8 Mil for the 2009-10 season,
has a team option of 4.9 MIL in 2010-11,
and has a qaulifying offer of 7.5 MIL in 2011-12

So we would have another few years to let Mike Conley keep developing before we make a longterm decision on him.


The #2 Pick
Here is the other piece of the trade. There are so many things the Celtics could do with this pick.

1)Trading Ray's expiring contract with the #2 pick may be able to land the Celtics a superstar.

2) Trading BBD with the # 2 Pick may land us a david Lee and   
  Chandler type of package from NY  or Something with Portland

3) Take the best player with most Potential. If Danny thinks someone is a superstar he will be able to get him here.

4) If there are no superstars danny can trade the pick along with other expiring contracts like Scal, Tony and House and probably get some very solid role players like say a jason terry to be a 6th man off the bench


Free Agents

The Celtics would obviously have to sign a Vet PG as insurance for Conley. I would actually have Conley be the PG for the 2nd unit and sign Kidd, Miller or Marbury to be the starter.


2009-10 Celtics Roster
PG: Kidd, Miller or Marubry / Conley
SG: Ray / # 2 pick(Harden)
SF: PP  / Vet FA(MLE)
PF: KG  / BBD / Scal/ Powe(IR)
 C: Perk/ VET FA



So while I think Rondo is the better PG now, I think it is a lot closer than one would have thought before looking at the development of each player.

So what do you guys think, would this trade make the Celtics better?

[bobdelt]

Everything made sense until you said Marbury as a starter.

But what're we doing with the 2nd pic? I dont see the Griz doing this either. I think we may value Rondo higher than reality.

[dark_lord]

2 VERY important differences between conley and rondo:

1.  postseason experience.  rondo has been in 3 seven game series, conference championship, and finals.

2.  rondo has gelled with the starters. bringing in a young pg with no experience will take time to develop.  our window is now!

no way i do this deal.

[Champzilla]

No way memphis does that pick, conley was a #4 pick and Rubio would be #2 if we take him.  Rondo was like #21 and Giddens #30.  Conley and Rubio are still both really really young.

[PosImpos]

Yeah, Memphis would never do this, and this would give us a great future but wouldn't make us better right now, which is what the purpose of any short terms really ought to be.

[SoulHonky]

No way memphis does that pick, conley was a #4 pick and Rubio would be #2 if we take him.  Rondo was like #21 and Giddens #30.  Conley and Rubio are still both really really young.

Yeah but Rondo would arguably be the #2 pick in this draft so I think it makes some sense. I agree that getting Conley would be tough but I think some sort of deal could be worked out. If Rubio won't go to Memphis, then Memphis is essentially dealing Conley and Thabeet or Harden for Rondo; a potential star for two guys who seem like role players.

[Change]

Great Post.
Rondo is our rock, and he won't be going anytime soon. Our starting 5 was & still is the best starting 5 in NBA. Rondo has developed great chemistry with KG & Ray. None of us would be having this discussion if Rondo had a legitimate shooting touch.

[Fafnir]

No way memphis does that pick, conley was a #4 pick and Rubio would be #2 if we take him.  Rondo was like #21 and Giddens #30.  Conley and Rubio are still both really really young.

Because everyone knows that a player is only as good as how high he was drafted  .

That's why Michael Olowokandi and Mike Bibby are sure-fire hall of famers, picks #1 and #2. Meanwhile Dirk Nowitzki and Paul Pierce are just solid starters, picks #9 and #10.

I do agree that Memphis wouldn't do it without getting another piece or tacking on bad contract though.

[rondohondo]

I posted this thread about a month ago, but with the recent rumor of Rondo for Conley and Gay just thought I would bump it up so you guys can see a comparison of Rondo and Conley

[Cman]

Since you recycled, I will recycle from a 5 minute old post:

Rondohondo, TP for the in depth analysis (even if it is recycled  ).

Look, Conley doesn't look bad, but I wouldn't trade Rondo+filler for Conley+Gay.  Boston basically trades proven talent for prospects.  Yes, I consider Conley+Gay both still prospects.  Why? Because they have only played for a crap team.  They put up good numbers on a crap team, but that's it.  Rondo has proven that he can help a championship team win important ball games.  Neither of those memphis guys has.  Now, if the #2 were included, then the trade is lopsided in the Cs favor and I jump on it.  But... this is all make-believe anyway...

[Fafnir]

I'd add that there numbers on a crap team aren't even eye popping ones. Merely, okay now can you make the leap from okay to good, and then good to great numbers.

[BballTim]

 On one hand, you compared shooting, but Rondo's much better at getting to the rim and a much better finisher, which didn't make it into your comparison. Also, Conley's assists are as likely (if not more likely) to go down as go up as Paul and Ray and KG all get a lot of assists and make the extra pass instead of just shooting when they get the ball.

[timepiece33]

Conley has been a disappointment and can't hold Rondo's jock.  I don't care where he was drafted.  Being the 4th pick in the draft just means he's overpaid for what you get.     

The question is whether Tyreke Evans is worth the difference.  I don't believe he is.

[Birdbrain]

Marbury won't be starting but this is only trade that actually makes sense from a C's perspective.

Actually the only deal would be all 3 for Rondo and Allen.

[dark_lord]

2 VERY important differences between conley and rondo:

1.  postseason experience.  rondo has been in 3 seven game series, conference championship, and finals.

2.  rondo has gelled with the starters. bringing in a young pg with no experience will take time to develop.  our window is now!

no way i do this deal.

i stand by my post