David Thorpe Chat/Second pick trade with Rondo

[SoulHonky]

what do you think it is?

I think its about 8 million, as ive said, plus the built in raises, until he is 27-28 depending on the years signed. I think that's pretty reasonable for both sides, and allows rondo to get his new contract right in his prime.

What do you think his value is?

How much more is Rondo worth than: Ben Gordon, Monta Ellis, Andrew Bogut, Andre Iguodala, Luol Deng, Emeka Okafor?

Hopefuly not much because those guys aren't making 8 million.

Ben Gordon (turned down 5 years, 50 million), Monta Ellis (6 years, 66 million), Bogut (5 years, 72 million), Iggy (6 years, 80 million) Deng (6 years for 71 million with incentives), Okafor (6 year and 72)

As for max contracts, they are around 5 years, 80 million ('Melo) or 4 years, 68 million (CP3). Those two guys were coming off of their rookie contracts when they signed those deals.

8 million? A deal like 4 years and 33 million gets you TJ Ford.

[RAcker]

8 million? A deal like 4 years and 33 million gets you TJ Ford.

Ewwww.

[Jeff]

why do I have to give him Chris Paul money?  I just said I'd trade him for nobody but CP3

I just don't know how someone could say that the ONLY person they'd deal Rondo for is an MVP caliber talent and then turn around and expect him to sign a deal for $10 million a year. I'd also venture a guess that Rondo's agent would have a problem with this logic as well.

And, in response to paintitgreen's comment, the CP3 example isn't the only one. People are labelling him equally important to the C's success as Pierce, one of the top PG's in the NBA, an untouchable talent, etc. To hold Rondo that high but then not be willing to open the banks for him seems off.

I don't see a disconnect at all.  He's got the potential to be almost as good as CP3.  So I wouldn't trade him for anything short of that.  Even a player of comparable upside wouldn't have the familiarity with the team and championship experience in Boston that makes Rondo more valuable to us than other teams (which makes it much harder to get equal value by the way).

Right now he's still working on potential instead of results, so his financial value is well short of the max.  He would also likely be willing to sign for a little less this year than wait a year because he runs the risk of injury by playing his final year on his rookie contract.

Finally, Hinrich is overpaid now, but when he got that contract, he was a nice looking player with major upside.  It isn't Rondo's fault he didn't live up to it.

Once again, I'm fine giving him more than $10M but I don't think he'll demand max money either.

[boscel33]

Chemistry and/or ability to negotiate a reasonable extension. 

This is just a re-occurance of an issue that happened back in the late 80's. 

Does Brian Shaw ring a bell?

[MrTripleDouble10]

Chemistry and/or ability to negotiate a reasonable extension. 

This is just a re-occurance of an issue that happened back in the late 80's. 

Does Brian Shaw ring a bell?

I get what you're saying, but talent/ability-wise, Brian Shaw is leagues below Rondo.  He's a better shooter (but really, what guard isn't?) but that's it.

[MrTripleDouble10]

why do I have to give him Chris Paul money?  I just said I'd trade him for nobody but CP3

I just don't know how someone could say that the ONLY person they'd deal Rondo for is an MVP caliber talent and then turn around and expect him to sign a deal for $10 million a year. I'd also venture a guess that Rondo's agent would have a problem with this logic as well.

And, in response to paintitgreen's comment, the CP3 example isn't the only one. People are labelling him equally important to the C's success as Pierce, one of the top PG's in the NBA, an untouchable talent, etc. To hold Rondo that high but then not be willing to open the banks for him seems off.

I don't see a disconnect at all.  He's got the potential to be almost as good as CP3.  So I wouldn't trade him for anything short of that.  Even a player of comparable upside wouldn't have the familiarity with the team and championship experience in Boston that makes Rondo more valuable to us than other teams (which makes it much harder to get equal value by the way).

Right now he's still working on potential instead of results, so his financial value is well short of the max.  He would also likely be willing to sign for a little less this year than wait a year because he runs the risk of injury by playing his final year on his rookie contract.

Finally, Hinrich is overpaid now, but when he got that contract, he was a nice looking player with major upside.  It isn't Rondo's fault he didn't live up to it.

Once again, I'm fine giving him more than $10M but I don't think he'll demand max money either.

Couldn't agree wtih you more on all counts.  And yes, I would pay him close to CP3 money.  He's well worth it and he knows it.  So do the Celtics.  In fact, when Ainge has been asked several times about the possibility of signing a bing name FA in 2010, he ALWAYS brings up the fact that it's highly unlikely since they still have to extend Rondo's contract.  Reading between the lines, that esentially means that his salary will be relatively high.  Or high enough to not be able to go after a "big name."

[The Walker Wiggle]

How much more is Rondo worth than: Ben Gordon, Monta Ellis, Andrew Bogut, Andre Iguodala, Luol Deng, Emeka Okafor?

Hopefuly not much because those guys aren't making 8 million.

Ben Gordon (turned down 5 years, 50 million), Monta Ellis (6 years, 66 million), Bogut (5 years, 72 million), Iggy (6 years, 80 million) Deng (6 years for 71 million with incentives), Okafor (6 year and 72)

As for max contracts, they are around 5 years, 80 million ('Melo) or 4 years, 68 million (CP3). Those two guys were coming off of their rookie contracts when they signed those deals.

8 million? A deal like 4 years and 33 million gets you TJ Ford.

Great post. But at the same time, how many of those offers now look regrettable? G.S. flirted with the idea of voiding Ellis's contract well into the season. Plenty of Deng trade rumors coming out of Chicago. Iguodala plateaued. Bogut was hampered by major injuries. Ford started 49 games.

[BballTim]

How much more is Rondo worth than: Ben Gordon, Monta Ellis, Andrew Bogut, Andre Iguodala, Luol Deng, Emeka Okafor?

Hopefuly not much because those guys aren't making 8 million.

Ben Gordon (turned down 5 years, 50 million), Monta Ellis (6 years, 66 million), Bogut (5 years, 72 million), Iggy (6 years, 80 million) Deng (6 years for 71 million with incentives), Okafor (6 year and 72)

As for max contracts, they are around 5 years, 80 million ('Melo) or 4 years, 68 million (CP3). Those two guys were coming off of their rookie contracts when they signed those deals.

8 million? A deal like 4 years and 33 million gets you TJ Ford.

Great post. But at the same time, how many of those offers now look regrettable? G.S. flirted with the idea of voiding Ellis's contract well into the season. Plenty of Deng trade rumors coming out of Chicago. Iguodala plateaued. Bogut was hampered by major injuries. Ford started 49 games.

  The bulk of your comments involve injuries, though. And the fact that most MLE signings are regretted doesn't stop future MLE signings.

[indeedproceed]

How much more is Rondo worth than: Ben Gordon, Monta Ellis, Andrew Bogut, Andre Iguodala, Luol Deng, Emeka Okafor?

Hopefuly not much because those guys aren't making 8 million.

Ben Gordon (turned down 5 years, 50 million), Monta Ellis (6 years, 66 million), Bogut (5 years, 72 million), Iggy (6 years, 80 million) Deng (6 years for 71 million with incentives), Okafor (6 year and 72)

As for max contracts, they are around 5 years, 80 million ('Melo) or 4 years, 68 million (CP3). Those two guys were coming off of their rookie contracts when they signed those deals.

8 million? A deal like 4 years and 33 million gets you TJ Ford.

Great post. But at the same time, how many of those offers now look regrettable? G.S. flirted with the idea of voiding Ellis's contract well into the season. Plenty of Deng trade rumors coming out of Chicago. Iguodala plateaued. Bogut was hampered by major injuries. Ford started 49 games.

  The bulk of your comments involve injuries, though. And the fact that most MLE signings are regretted doesn't stop future MLE signings.

And the fact that some people regret signings doesn't mean anyone will ever learn from them. If Rajon Rondo gets Charlotte or Memphis some of that playoff money, better national exposure, more season ticket holders...you better believe they like him at 12 million per season.

[paintitgreen]

And, in response to paintitgreen's comment, the CP3 example isn't the only one. People are labelling him equally important to the C's success as Pierce, one of the top PG's in the NBA, an untouchable talent, etc. To hold Rondo that high but then not be willing to open the banks for him seems off.

You make a very valid point. If I considered him any of those things, I'd have to be willing to give him a max contract, given his age. That part of the logic is sound. I personally don't think he's any of those things. I think he's a very good young point guard, with particular value to us because we have no other option at the point and an extremely short window to win with three aging All Stars. I think he should get a contract extension around 5 years, $50 million. I would be willing to give him more, though, because of our "win-now" situation. If I was to give him significantly more per year though (i.e., $13 mil starting salary with increases), I would only want to go 3 years with it, so if we're too old to compete in 3 years, and it turns out Rondo is not good enough to be the best player on a championship contender (I personally don't think he ever will be unless he develops a jump shot that places him on the average of starting guards in the NBA - and I don't think he will) then we can at least bottom out quickly and not be stuck in pergatory with huge contracts going to non-stars.

On that point though, I wonder how many people who call Rondo "untouchable," a top 3 point guard and/or the most valuable player on this team think he's worth a max extension. To me, the value of Rondo, or any other player, is strongly affected by salary and contract length. So Rondo has a lot of value as a very good young point guard on a rookie contract who you might expect to be able to get for $9-10 million a year but a lot less value as a very good young point guard who can't shoot and is in the first year of a 5 or 6 year max contract.

[CoachBo]

I don't know, I might have to sharpen the pitchfork if we trade Rondo for anyone not named Chris Paul

But would you give him Chris Paul's contract? That's the key issue. People seem to be unwilling to give him up for anything but an elite player but then when it comes to salary, he's in Jose Calderon/Kirk Hinrich territory. He'd have to agree to one hell of a hometown discount for that to happen IMO.

The whole salary thing is a matter of perspective. I find it interesting that no one was complaining about Rondo's salary when we were paying him less than Tony Allen. But then we balk at the possibility that Rondo could want half the amount that Paul Pierce makes, even though Rondo is arguably as valuable (or maybe more valuable) to the team...

The preservative boils down to two things. consistency and the ability to shoot a jump shot when open.

Rajon has shown neither of those, paul has. 8 per is fine, more is not.

Co-sign.

And I'd still be calling George Shinn to find out just how broke he really is.

[Fan from VT]

I don't know, I might have to sharpen the pitchfork if we trade Rondo for anyone not named Chris Paul

But would you give him Chris Paul's contract? That's the key issue. People seem to be unwilling to give him up for anything but an elite player but then when it comes to salary, he's in Jose Calderon/Kirk Hinrich territory. He'd have to agree to one hell of a hometown discount for that to happen IMO.

The whole salary thing is a matter of perspective. I find it interesting that no one was complaining about Rondo's salary when we were paying him less than Tony Allen. But then we balk at the possibility that Rondo could want half the amount that Paul Pierce makes, even though Rondo is arguably as valuable (or maybe more valuable) to the team...

The preservative boils down to two things. consistency and the ability to shoot a jump shot when open.

Rajon has shown neither of those, paul has. 8 per is fine, more is not.

Co-sign.

And I'd still be calling George Shinn to find out just how broke he really is.

Yeah, it's hard not to think about ever since the rumor that Shinn might be willing to deal Paul to get out from under salary. Why not:

Rondo, Ray, Scal, Tony for Paul, Peja, Posey.

New Orleans saves 7 million this year and says that their building around Rondo and West and cheaper parts and sets themselves up for more future flexibility after learning that signing a peja type deal is a bad idea.

For Boston, Paul is a top 5 talent, which is generally what you need to win. Sets you up for now (a nucleus of Paul, Pierce, and KG) and for later (as any team with a Paul type player would be). They can judge Peja's health and go after a backup shooting guard and/or big man with the MLE and vet. min. type deals. I'd prefer Chandler instead of Peja, but shedding Peja's salary is really the motivation for trading Paul.


OR


If eddie takes his player option, you could do:

Rondo, Ray, TA, Scal, Eddie, Giddens, Pruitt

for

Chandler, Peja, Paul.

That takes care of the backup big man. let baby go, and go all out for a 2 guard with the MLE. Then you're looking at:
Paul, Peja, Pierce, KG, Perk, Chandler, MLE guard, Walker, and a couple minimum contracts to round it out.

[Edgar]

I don't know, I might have to sharpen the pitchfork if we trade Rondo for anyone not named Chris Paul

But would you give him Chris Paul's contract? That's the key issue. People seem to be unwilling to give him up for anything but an elite player but then when it comes to salary, he's in Jose Calderon/Kirk Hinrich territory. He'd have to agree to one hell of a hometown discount for that to happen IMO.

The whole salary thing is a matter of perspective. I find it interesting that no one was complaining about Rondo's salary when we were paying him less than Tony Allen. But then we balk at the possibility that Rondo could want half the amount that Paul Pierce makes, even though Rondo is arguably as valuable (or maybe more valuable) to the team...

The preservative boils down to two things. consistency and the ability to shoot a jump shot when open.

Rajon has shown neither of those, paul has. 8 per is fine, more is not.

Co-sign.

And I'd still be calling George Shinn to find out just how broke he really is.

Yeah, it's hard not to think about ever since the rumor that Shinn might be willing to deal Paul to get out from under salary. Why not:

Rondo, Ray, Scal, Tony for Paul, Peja, Posey.

New Orleans saves 7 million this year and says that their building around Rondo and West and cheaper parts and sets themselves up for more future flexibility after learning that signing a peja type deal is a bad idea.

For Boston, Paul is a top 5 talent, which is generally what you need to win. Sets you up for now (a nucleus of Paul, Pierce, and KG) and for later (as any team with a Paul type player would be). They can judge Peja's health and go after a backup shooting guard and/or big man with the MLE and vet. min. type deals. I'd prefer Chandler instead of Peja, but shedding Peja's salary is really the motivation for trading Paul.


OR


If eddie takes his player option, you could do:

Rondo, Ray, TA, Scal, Eddie, Giddens, Pruitt

for

Chandler, Peja, Paul.

That takes care of the backup big man. let baby go, and go all out for a 2 guard with the MLE. Then you're looking at:
Paul, Peja, Pierce, KG, Perk, Chandler, MLE guard, Walker, and a couple minimum contracts to round it out.

too thin off the bench for my taste
another season like this one
one injury and...over