See what happens when Cavs play competition

[star18]

Thank you fairweatherfan, I don't understand how people can argue against statistics like that.

[Fafnir]

Even if you look at the entire regular season, they still have similiar numbers against .600+ or better teams.  So if the Cavs lose to ORL,LA,DEN they should be awarded an NBA title because remember they played great against the 76ers & Knicks and that's a "significant portion of related cases or data that may contradict that position" 

Why don't you cite those numbers then? Why don't you compare them to the other conference finalists records against .600 plus teams? Why don't you take a look at efficiency differentials?

If you actually gave us useful numbers to argue about I might give your thoughts more weight. Only using 14 games and then saying their record for the whole season is "similar" without providing any context, ie other playoff teams records against +.600 opponents, or actual numbers makes it cherry picking.

Also use paragraphs to seperate your thoughts, it makes your posts much easier to read.

[Fafnir]

Thank you fairweatherfan, I don't understand how people can argue against statistics like that.

But you're not using statistics well, thats the problem. You're taking a small 14 game sample without providing comparable data. Use the whole season, and show me what the Lakers/Nuggets/Magic did against +.600 teams.

Also what about efficiency differential, because it is a better predictor than raw W/L record.

[Fafnir]

Gotta agree with Star18 on this one - cherry-picking is more "look at these 3 random games where they sucked (and ignore the other 79)!!"  Star is applying a reasonable standard (teams over .600) and doing it consistently.  It might be more reasonable to look at every game against +.600 competition, rather than just the last 14, or to compare their win % against top competition to those of recent champions to see if it's different, but it's definitely not an arbitrary selection standard.

But he's not applyingt the standard. He's stating a fact in isolation without providing comparable records. Or using easily available measures or better sample size.

The Cavs have to be the favorites for the title now, but their struggles against top teams are very relevant to what's ahead of them.

This is very true, but it is more a matter of matchups. The Magic and Lakers both are tough matchup for the Cavs. Basketball at its highest level comes down to such things. We lost to Orlando because we couldn't handle Rashard/Hedo/Pietrus all playing together. We didn't have a PF who could play Rashard or a backcourt that could handle it when the Turk went to point forward.

[star18]

Here are the games before the 14. Wins:Home BOS by 15,Home HOU by 9,@DEN by 17,Home DEN by 11,@DAL by 19.  Losses:@BOS by 5.  It still doesn't look much better. Denver is a much better team now than in the 1st half. So they are 12-8 overall this year against .600+ or better, only 4 wins on the road and you can see how recently lots of key guys were missing.  ORL,LA,DEN,& BOS have about the same records, I can give you those stats too if you want.  Bottom line is there is nothing there that says the CLE are a superior team to ORL LA or DEN, but when you say CLE in 4 against ORL everyone is like yeah no problem, no doubt, LeBron no problem, but if you say ORL in 4 over CLE you get looked at like you are totally out of you mind.  Well guess which one is the only possibilty left and its not CLE in 4.

[star18]

14 games isn't a small sample.  Take all 20 games this year if you want, its not much of a difference.   That's all they played this year against .600 or better 20 games.  How are the last 14 a small sample of that. With the 20 games its an entire year, its not a small sample with skewed results its not cherry picking.

[Steve Weinman]

Here are the games before the 14. Wins:Home BOS by 15,Home HOU by 9,@DEN by 17,Home DEN by 11,@DAL by 19.  Losses:@BOS by 5.  It still doesn't look much better.

Sure, all they do is jump 100 percentage points to go from .500 to .600 that way.

-sw

[Fafnir]

Here are the games before the 14. Wins:Home BOS by 15,Home HOU by 9,@DEN by 17,Home DEN by 11,@DAL by 19.  Losses:@BOS by 5.  It still doesn't look much better. Denver is a much better team now than in the 1st half. So they are 12-8 overall this year against .600+ or better, only 4 wins on the road and you can see how recently lots of key guys were missing.  ORL,LA,DEN,& BOS have about the same records, I can give you those stats too if you want.  Bottom line is there is nothing there that says the CLE are a superior team to ORL LA or DEN, but when you say CLE in 4 against ORL everyone is like yeah no problem, no doubt, LeBron no problem, but if you say ORL in 4 over CLE you get looked at like you are totally out of you mind.  Well guess which one is the only possibilty left and its not CLE in 4.

Show me the stats for Den/Lal/Cle/Magic then! And I'll say it again the raw wins versus losses doesn't say nearly as much as the efficiency differential. That is a better predictor of how good a team is.

You also seem to say its a terrible thing that Cleveland has a worse record against +.600 teams. Is that really surprising? Of course they don't have a 66 win pace against the best teams in the league! There are some legit signs that say Cleveland could be upset this year. Your one 'stat' that you've latched onto isn't a very strong one.

[Fafnir]

Here are the games before the 14. Wins:Home BOS by 15,Home HOU by 9,@DEN by 17,Home DEN by 11,@DAL by 19.  Losses:@BOS by 5.  It still doesn't look much better.

Sure, all they do is jump 100 percentage points to go from .500 to .600 that way.

-sw

Which is why people have accurately called you out for cherry picking. Why else would you cut it off at a very arbitrary 'last 14 games'?

[star18]

Ok you asked for it.   ORL Wins:@DAL by 2, @POR by 1, Home SA by 12, Home LAL by 3,@SA by 7,@LAL by 6, @ DEN by 18 no Carmelo, @BOS by 7 no KG or Rondo, Home CLE by 11, Home BOS by 2,Home CLE by 29,@BOS by 5 no KG,Home BOS by 21 no KG,Home BOS by 8 no KG,@ BOS by 19 no KG, @ CLE by 1.  Losses:Home POR by 7,Home HOU by 5,@BOS by 19, Home BOS by 10,Home DAL by 10,Home DEN by 9,@ CLE by 4,@HOU by 10,@BOS no KG by 18, Home BOS by 1 no KG, @BOS by 4 no KG.  That's 16-11.   12-8 is not vastly superior to that considering only KG, Rondo & Melo were keys that were out against ORL while Blake,Duncan,Ginobli,Jameer,Aldridge,Howard,KG were out against CLE.  If CLE goes 4-3 over thier next 7 and they would be happy to do so they would also be 16-11, identical records.  If they go 2-3 they will be elminated and have a worse record 14-11.   No chery picking.  Its the entire 2008-09 season. I don't feel like doing LA or DEN record because I don't feel like typing right now. The point is, ORL and CLE are two evenly matched teams. So why do 95% people pick CLE with half of them thinking it is no contest for ORL.  Because people look at Tony Kornheiser more than the basket.

[waltzero]

Why did everybody say this was going to be a Lebron vs Kobe year right from the start? What did they pick up on?

The refs never let teams back into it against the Cavs and Lakers. Meanwhile, the refs were ALWAYS willing to let teams back into it against us, especially on our home floor. It was a huge part of why this team got so worn out.

Corruption isn't hidden, everyone sees it. Some people just won't talk about it. Many people love the corruption. They loved the idea of a Kobe vs Lebron series, and loved the idea of the Celtics getting screwed out of a title even better. They knew this team was the best and this was their way of ruining it for us. Redo the 60's with today's unethical leadership and the C's win maybe 4 titles, the refs screw them out of the rest. People actually think a real contest is bad for the 'sports entertainment business' now.

The NBA is scared to 'fix games,' but 'keeping games close' doesn't bother them at all. But I've never noticed them using it as a systematic weapon to wear a team down all year long before, but that's what happened. They did it to the C's so many times, but they just wouldn't do it to Lebron and Kobe. It added up.

Look at 82games and you can see how much more effective our lineup with KG was than any other lineup. The Cavs starters were a distant second...yet somehow they had many more easy games. Teams got the message: just forget about it, we are forcing Lebron and Kobe this year.

Denver all the way. Lebron...we might need him to beat LA for us. Otherwise Orlando vs Denver would be a hilarious end to the worst officiated season I've ever seen.

And you know what? I think the FBI busting Donaghy was a message to the NBA that they didn't get. I think there are basketball fans in the FBI who can spot a biased call and are going to take out some more corrupt refs this off season.

[star18]

Don't want to break any GBP hearts but 1998 SB against DEN is the exact example.   GB favored by 7, everybody was picking them. I was in LV with my dad at the time and they had GB 3 to 1 to win by 10 or more and DEN 20 to 1. I thought those odds were ridiculous so I picked DEN. Favre almost got intercepted in the 4th which could have went the other way and I would have won the bet. DEN won the game. They were two evenly matched teams.  Nothing in their schedule, stats, talent or personnel, showed GBP were any better than DEN, but people disrespected Elway because he had lost 3 SB big although he was with a completely different supporting cast.  Shannon Sharpe said it best after the game, he said what did any of you think or see to say that GBP were a vastly superior team than DEN, honestly, nothing. I thought the same.

[star18]

2008 NBA Finals were another example.  9 out of 10 ESPN experts picked LA, Legler picked BOS in 7.  All 10 were wrong.  It should have been 5 for BOS, and 5 for LA. Wow I thought it should have been 9 for BOS and 1 for LA, but that's just me. I picked BOS in 5 and I was closer than everyone.  BOS had homecourt or a lead in every series and game from the opening tip in Game 1 against WAS to the final buzzer in a 131-92 washout.  Yet LA was favored and had many more people picking them to win.  BOS could have won all 6 of those games, they could have won the series 7-0 if they played all 7.   Because 80-90% of sports fans just do what everyone else says to do ala Tony Kornheiser. 

[star18]

And if I'm the only one giving stats and giving historical examples and nobody else is, then how can anyone disagree with me.

[ManUp]

I think the Magic just match-up really well with the Cavs. Howard will keep Lebron from owning the paint while he tears Z, and Varejao a new one on the other end. If Jameer Nelson was healthy I think they could beat the Cavs pretty easily. I also think that Howard would abuse a Gasol/Bynum front line. It's too bad Nelson's injured and SVG is their coach.

If Orlando wins Game 2 its a sweep.  4-0.  I keep telling people Cavs are not that great, they are a good team, but the real numbers and statistics don't back them up.  They have been playing some of the worst competition ever.  They lost at home, with Mo hitting that ridiculous 3 and Lebron scoring almost 50 points.   LETS GO MAGIC!!!!

I'll bet you 20 tommy pts that CLE wins the series 4-2.

Can I get in on this?