I think a lot of you are making a mistake by underestimating Atlanta. They are young, athletic, have some pretty good outside shooters, and have some tough guys too (Zaza, Horford, etc). That combination is exactly what the Cavs don't want/like. Atlanta is long and athletic enough to keep LeCrabDribble from getting to the basket at will. Also, Z always looks very slow and plodding. In this series, I think the Hawks can really expose him more so than normal. Going back about 2-3 years, the Hawks have consistently been a tough match-up for the Cavs.
While the Hawks are just getting out of a 7 game series, you can argue that they're in rhythm. And with such a young team, they shouldn't be that worn out, especially since none of the games were that close. Whereas the Cavs could certainly be very rusty with such a long lay-off, and haven't really been in any playoff-atmosphere games this year (Detroit was garbage). Game 1 is huge in this series - I think Atlanta has a legit shot at taking it. The Cavs could have a cold-shooting night, and the Hawks could steal one. And as others have said, Atlanta will be a tough place for the Cavs to play. If Atlanta can bring it back home even at 1-1, I think they have a legit chance at winning the series.
It'll be interesting to see what the refs do if this series is close (1-1, 2-2, 3-2, 3-3, etc). IF the Cavs get in trouble, I think the league will do everything possible to guarantee the Cavs advance. I'd love to see the Hawks win the series, but don't think they're good enough to steal 4 games when playing 5-on-8.
Cavs in 7