I'm a little bit surprised by the overall negative mood of the fans about the team's chances to repeat. The majority of us are quite pessimistic because the Celtics don't dominate the league like they did a year ago but I think that the team is still really good, if not better than last year. So here are some explanations of my own (I tried to stick to objective facts) to why we are overreacting, and why I think the team has really good chances of repeating.
I guess that we were so used to see the Celtics dominate last season that we are shocked to see that they can lose more games this year, and often consecutives losses. I mean, many times this season we thought it was the end of the world because the team had just lost to the Clippers or the Warriors but with 7 games left in the regular season, the team is on pace to win 60+ games for the second year in a row. Last year the C's won 66 games while dominating the league. This year, they can win 63 games while not being dominant... I can't help but just see a psychological difference in our minds because ultimately the results will be excellent.
- A season ago, the Celtics had many things to prove. They wanted to show that their three stars were unselfish, committed to defense, hard work and to the team's spirit (ubuntu). Not only did they dominate the league, they did it in an amazing way, by sweeping the Texas Triangle for example. They were truly dominative and unstoppable, and they were putting all their energy in every single game.
- This year, the team isn't as motivated as it was last year. I can't blame the players to be less intense, even if it makes me mad sometimes. There is a huge difference between being the dominant team in the league and the defending champions. In the first case, the opponent will try to beat you but if he isn't able to do so, he will back down and accept the defeat. Against the defending champions, the behaviour is totally different : you never back down, you attack righ from the start with a lot of energy (which explains the slow starts/1st quarters of the C's this year) and you do your best to win, no matter what. It's true for every team, including the worst of the leagues because it's the only thing they can be proud of (saying "yeah, well, we suck but at least we beat the champs!"). The Celtics don't feel that they have something to prove because they are the defending champions, and it speaks for itself. Moreover, they know that being great in the regular season won't be remembered if you get kicked out of the playoffs in the first round. The first round against Atlanta and even the 2nd round against Cleveland made them realize that with accurracy.
In these conditions it's hard to keep your intensity up for 48 minutes and for every game of the season. Plus, against bad teams, the C's were often overconfident (like against the Bucks recently) or a litte bit lazy, blowing out some leads at the end of games. It's the common "load" of the champions : after all, you are the defending champions, it's quite normal to think you don't need to give your best against a bad team because you're clearly better than the opponents.
Understand that I'm not making excuses here. I'm just explaining why the the team doesn't seem as dominant as last year. I'd add that many fans are putting the losses' blame on the injuries plaguing the team : yes, injuries are one big factor explaining these losses but the lack of intensity and the overconfidence are part of the equation too.
- What is more worrying is that the Celtics lost to the Lakers twice this year, and have lost to other contender teams such as the Cavaliers, the Magic and the Spurs. And, there, I think we tend to forget a huge factor : the potential rivals of last year have strengthened a lot. Somebody said it in a Fanpost : the Celtics' commitment and effort who led to championship 17 are truly used as an example for many teams, like the Cavaliers (showing up for every game, dominant at home), the Lakers (more focused... or trying to be
), the Hawks (like their 6-0 start in the first days of the season and their improved defense and competitive mentality). It's not something you can overlook : the Cavs are better than last year, so are the Magic and every other contender, not only because the Celtics inspired them but because in a year you usually improve a lot, especially after having learnt from the playoffs. Am I disappointed to see the Celtics lose against these teams? Yes. Am I worried? No, because obviously these teams have improved, it's not like the C's have regressed. Plus, last year if I recall correctly Cleveland and Orlando did split the season series so it's not much of a difference.
Here is my point : we overreact to the C's losses and weaknesses because we don't see them dominate like last year and we feel they're truly in danger of not repeating. I'm sorry but I can't help being stunned when I read that the team will be knocked out in the 1st round of the playoffs. Here is why the C's are the favorites in my opinion :
- 2nd or 3rd seed, they're able to win on the road, we know that. They struggled last year in the first rounds but did win on the road when it was necessary. This experience and their confidence will help to do it again this year, even in Cleveland.
- Healthy, the team's got one of the best rosters in the league. I'm assuming that the team will be healthy come playoffs time, especially since there are many days off in the next couple of weeks. The improvement of Powe and BBD will also really help in the playoffs.
- People are expecting too much of Marbury and Moore while they'll (probably) be fine. We all know that they came in Boston to provide their respective skills (passing, scoring and ball-handling for Starbury, length, rebounding and defense for Mikki). Sure, the two of them didn't have a huge game since their arrival but we don't really care about their performances in the regular season. Last year, PJ and Sam were expected to contribute in the playoffs and didn't do much in the regular season. And still, PJ was clutch and decisive in the game 7 against Cleveland with his perfect performance during the whole game and down the stretch (man, this jumper in the last minute was great!). That's what we are expecting from Marbury and Moore : we know what they are capable of doing and the team will have the chance to count on them when their skills will be truly needed.
Of course Marbury still has some problems with his shooting game and Mikki is way too much in foul trouble. But they are slowly getting into the rotation and you can't question their intensity and commitment : it seems like a bold statement but I'm sure they will provide quality minutes in the playoffs and really fill in their roles, as PJ did (not so much for Sam though).
- The team's defense and "killer instinct" have not disappeared unlike what many fans are thinking. Sure, the team struggled down the stretch many times this season. But the games against Cleveland without KG or in San Antonio are just reminders of what you'll see from the Celtics in the playoffs. Intensity, desire (which lacked the most this season in my opinion), huge defense, clutch plays... everything that made this team win it all last year.
I'd add that the "confidence crisis" lived by the team this season (after the Lakers' losses) will just be an other factor strenghtening the players. They know that they are not unbeatable, they know what it takes to win, they know that they can win on the road, they know they can rely on each other.
Moreover, the Celtics are quite underdogs this year, according to the media. I think it's a huge factor too : they played their best basketball when they weren't favorite anymore in the last playoffs (against Detroit and L.A) and they're at their best when the pressure of being the favorites isn't on their shoulders. The intimidation factor will be back right in the C's hands, for the best.
My point is that the Celtics have all the pieces to repeat. Really, it's obvious that they have what it takes to win another championship, physically speaking with their roster and their defense and mentally speaking with their experience, their intensity and their confidence. The only difference with last year is that they won't have HCA but I'll finally consider it as a bonus more than a needed piece because ultimately a championship team has to win on the road.
I hope I haven't bored you with this long thread, and I'd be nice if my topic could lead to some interesting debate. The title of the thread says it all : "Never underestimate the heart of a Champion"! I trust the Celtics and I can't wait to see them perform in the playoffs.
Topic: Never underestimate the heart of a Champion (Read 6305 times)