After reading Bill Simmonss article yesterday about the financial downturn that is be hitting the NBA and the possiblility of it getting really bad, I thought, if this recession/depression gets real bad, this could actually, long term, be a good thing for the NBA. Here's how so:
First I think contraction is not only a possibility, I think it is a certainty if this recession/depression lasts into 2011. The Kings, Suns, Grizzlies and a lot of other teams are already feeling the crunch. it's only a matter of time before it goes public that a lot of other teams are feeling it as well. So who should go? Let's look at attendance:
http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/attendanceSorry, I still, 2 years later haven't figured out how to post a table of stats so if there is a good natured mod that reads this and would like to post it I'd shower you with a TP or three.
Anyways if contraction is going to happen it will probably be 2 teams to start with possibly two teams later and some relocating happening as well. By pure attendance numbers Charlotte, Indiana, Memphis and Sacramento are the worse with all 4 teams at or below the 14000 per game attendance figure. Not coincidentally Memphis and Sacramento are the two lowest in capacity sold as well. None of these teams travel well either as all four are in the bottom five of road attendance generated and in the bottom seven of capacity generated on the road. Minnesota is another team that show up pretty prominently in these numbers as well. Surprisingly to me, so does Philadelphia.
So who will need to be contracted and who will need to relocate? I know the NBAPA will have a fit thinking that up to 60 jobs could be in jeapody but if the teams can't remain solvent then they really can't do too much. Also, they could well play a hand in creating the contraction as it looks like a work stoppage is inevitable. If it is prolonged, some teams might just not be able to come out of it.
I would like to see the folloowing teams contracted: Charlotte, Memphis, Minnesota and the Clippers. Charlotte, let's be honest, never deserved a second chance at a pro franchise. memphis has been a joke both fiscally and on the court since it's inception. Minnesota just doesn't have the numbers to stay alive or the economic climate in that area. The Clippers have been an NBA joke of a franchise since Buffalo and have been rated as one of the worst sports franchises ever in many polls. If Sacramento just can't stay afloat, then give Minnesota a reprieve and contract the Kings. I'm not in favor of that as the Kings franchise is rather old and has some history. Perhaps a relocation would be better for them.
But with those teams gone the league could look like this:
Eastern Conference Western ConferenceAtlantic NorthwestBoston Portland
New York Denver
New Jersey Utah
Philadelphia OKC
Toronto
Central PacificCleveland Los Angeles
Detroit Golden State
Chicago Phoenix
Milwaukee Las Vegas Kings(relocation)
Indiana
Southeast SouthwestMiami Houston
Atlanta Dallas
Orlando San Antonio
Washington New Orleans
Now maybe with 14 teams in the East and 12 in the West realignment of Milwaukee to a Western Conference team in the Northwest division and OKC to the Southwest division would make some sense. Or maybe they just go back to four divisions 2 of 7 and 2 of 6. I'm not sure.
But contraction would mean, deeper better benches as hopefully the worst 60 players in the league would exit. It would mean better refereeing(okay this is probably a pipedream but theoretically it works) as up to 6 of the worst refs in the league could be let go as it would mean two less games on most nights. It would mean more exposure for the entire league as a whole as marketing for 4 teams could stop.
Maybe, this depression is exactly what this league could use right now.