NBA's coming Era of Deflation

[QuinielaBox]

The non-competing teams are looking to trim payroll in anticipation of season ticket non-renewals, corporate sponsorships being pulled back, and poorer TV contracts due lack of advertising revenue.

Example - Phoenix is conducting a fire sale as they struggle to get a playoff spot.
New Orleans has disappointed as Posey is not as effective as he was with Boston (Perhaps Ainge made the right call, here). Utah, Dallas, and Houston are disappointing.

Also, there is a threat of an NBA lockout before the 2011 season which coincides with the Free Agent bonanza headed by Lebron James. I see the majority of owners wanting to reduce salary payrolls and impose hard salary caps which would force players like Garnett and Pierce to restructure for the good of the Celtics.

I expect the NBA to contract teams or roster spots after 2010 season.

This year, there is a short field of 5 contenders for the NBA championship - SA, LAL, Orl, Cle, and Boston. None of the other teams are even close to the Fab Five. As of last writing, all were over .750. Next year, it will be the same teams going at it. After that, the NBA drives off a cliff with the CBA expiring and most key players being FA's. 

So I am hoping that Boston can take advantage of weak teams with talent and make one-sided deals like the Lakers did getting Gasol.

Deflation and Contraction is tough but if the NBA is to survive, it must happen.

[Hoyo de Monterrey]

I agree with the list of contenders, and would maybe even remove Orlando with the Nelson injury. That said, I also agree with many of your other statements, and find it fascinating that a league with a salary cap can only have 4 or 5 true contenders. I see that as a testament to an unbelievably bad era of GM leadership and decision making. So many bad GMs were in the league for the past 10-15 years that this was almost inevitable looking at the ridiculous contracts handed out to undeserving players.

[BballTim]

The non-competing teams are looking to trim payroll in anticipation of season ticket non-renewals, corporate sponsorships being pulled back, and poorer TV contracts due lack of advertising revenue.

Example - Phoenix is conducting a fire sale as they struggle to get a playoff spot.
New Orleans has disappointed as Posey is not as effective as he was with Boston (Perhaps Ainge made the right call, here). Utah, Dallas, and Houston are disappointing.

Also, there is a threat of an NBA lockout before the 2011 season which coincides with the Free Agent bonanza headed by Lebron James. I see the majority of owners wanting to reduce salary payrolls and impose hard salary caps which would force players like Garnett and Pierce to restructure for the good of the Celtics.

I expect the NBA to contract teams or roster spots after 2010 season.

This year, there is a short field of 5 contenders for the NBA championship - SA, LAL, Orl, Cle, and Boston. None of the other teams are even close to the Fab Five. As of last writing, all were over .750. Next year, it will be the same teams going at it. After that, the NBA drives off a cliff with the CBA expiring and most key players being FA's. 

So I am hoping that Boston can take advantage of weak teams with talent and make one-sided deals like the Lakers did getting Gasol.

Deflation and Contraction is tough but if the NBA is to survive, it must happen.

 When's the last time the league contracted? Because times have been far worse for the nba then it is now or will be next year.

[MBz]

I think the rest of the league will improve.  Being Celtic's fans we should be able to see how just 2 trades can change a team.  Look at a team like Atlanta, they could make a trade and make them a legit title contender.  They have stars in Joe Johnson and Josh Smith, a legit big man in Al Horford.  There's a lot of teams in these situations, it just comes down to who makes these trades.

[Kwhit10]

I agree with the list of contenders, and would maybe even remove Orlando with the Nelson injury. That said, I also agree with many of your other statements, and find it fascinating that a league with a salary cap can only have 4 or 5 true contenders. I see that as a testament to an unbelievably bad era of GM leadership and decision making. So many bad GMs were in the league for the past 10-15 years that this was almost inevitable looking at the ridiculous contracts handed out to undeserving players.

It seems the bad GM leadership has stemmed from the overpaying and over evaluating big men in the league.  Before the mid 90's you had a lot of great big men in the league.  After those guys started on their decline the search for the next great center lead to a lot of bad contracts and bad decisions in the draft and free agency.  

[ChampKind]

I also disagree about the contraction.  While the league isn't as profitable as it was because of the economy, the fan base is stronger than it has been since the late 90s/early 2000s because of the resurgence of the Celts, growth of Lebron, Kobe's compelling storylines, etc.  I don't think that contraction is an option before relocation - i.e. the Grizz leaving Memphis, for example, or a lower/tighter salary cap through renegotiation with the union should the economic slump continue.

[wdleehi]

I can see them pushing the age another year or two again.  Less years guys can make the Max.

[GLS]

I see that as a testament to an unbelievably bad era of GM leadership and decision making. So many bad GMs were in the league for the past 10-15 years that this was almost inevitable looking at the ridiculous contracts handed out to undeserving players.

This.

[the_Bird]

It's not really teams like Phoenix that are the issue.  There are franchises in Charlotte and Memphis and Oklahoma City that are wholly irrelevant.  No one really cares about these franchises in or out of their respective markets.  One of them needs to find their way to Seattle, and the other two get bought out.  The quality of play in the League would be much improved with talent spread out over only 28 teams instead of 30 (especially since there seems to be more international talent staying, well...  international rather than moving to the NBA).

EDIT: I don't have any way of judging this, but I don't think it's that uncommon to only have four teams judged to REALLY be legit title contenders.  That strikes me as about the same as usual.  It was considered five teams before Jameer Nelson got hurt.  There are still a few teams out there that could get things right and make some noise before all is said and done.  There's four teams winning more than 79% of their games and four teams winning 28% or less; that's not too unbalanced.  We're seeing a transition where teams like Atlanta get a little better and teams like Detroit get a little worse.  A few disappointments like New Orleans - but there always are, and they've got time to get better if CP3 isn't out too long.

I guess...  I just don't see the league's current standings, a few teams being worse than expected, as being anything out of the ordinary.   

EDIT 2: The current economic issues, of course, are a separate issue.  If Bear Sterns and Lehman Brothers can cease to exist, so too can the Memphis Grizzlies and Charlotte Bobcats.

[Hoyo de Monterrey]

EDIT: I don't have any way of judging this, but I don't think it's that uncommon to only have four teams judged to REALLY be legit title contenders.  That strikes me as about the same as usual.  It was considered five teams before Jameer Nelson got hurt.  There are still a few teams out there that could get things right and make some noise before all is said and done.  There's four teams winning more than 79% of their games and four teams winning 28% or less; that's not too unbalanced.  We're seeing a transition where teams like Atlanta get a little better and teams like Detroit get a little worse.  A few disappointments like New Orleans - but there always are, and they've got time to get better if CP3 isn't out too long.

I guess...  I just don't see the league's current standings, a few teams being worse than expected, as being anything out of the ordinary.   

It strikes me as strange that a league with every team spending the same amount of money has so few legitimate title contenders. Look at the NFL and all the teams that had a serious chance at the Super Bowl because of smart salary cap management, while the NBA really only has 4.

NFL- Colts, Chargers, Titans, Ravens, Eagles, Cardinals, Steelers, Giants, etc. (there's more)

NBA- Celtics, Lakers, Cavs, Spurs

[wdleehi]

EDIT: I don't have any way of judging this, but I don't think it's that uncommon to only have four teams judged to REALLY be legit title contenders.  That strikes me as about the same as usual.  It was considered five teams before Jameer Nelson got hurt.  There are still a few teams out there that could get things right and make some noise before all is said and done.  There's four teams winning more than 79% of their games and four teams winning 28% or less; that's not too unbalanced.  We're seeing a transition where teams like Atlanta get a little better and teams like Detroit get a little worse.  A few disappointments like New Orleans - but there always are, and they've got time to get better if CP3 isn't out too long.

I guess...  I just don't see the league's current standings, a few teams being worse than expected, as being anything out of the ordinary.   

It strikes me as strange that a league with every team spending the same amount of money has so few legitimate title contenders. Look at the NFL and all the teams that had a serious chance at the Super Bowl because of smart salary cap management, while the NBA really only has 4.

NFL- Colts, Chargers, Titans, Ravens, Eagles, Cardinals, Steelers, Giants, etc. (there's more)

NBA- Celtics, Lakers, Cavs, Spurs

It is how the leagues are set up.

NFL is about team.  Rules are set up that way
NBA is about the Superstars.  don't have a top one, you are done.

NFL allows for teams to move on from players that do not work without having to find a team to match contracts, likely with a player that is overpayed.

NFL gets rid of players that are all hype, all potential and no show on the field.  Therefor players work harder learning their crafts instead of trying to cruise on athletic ability.  NBA players get guaranteed money.

[Hoyo de Monterrey]

EDIT: I don't have any way of judging this, but I don't think it's that uncommon to only have four teams judged to REALLY be legit title contenders.  That strikes me as about the same as usual.  It was considered five teams before Jameer Nelson got hurt.  There are still a few teams out there that could get things right and make some noise before all is said and done.  There's four teams winning more than 79% of their games and four teams winning 28% or less; that's not too unbalanced.  We're seeing a transition where teams like Atlanta get a little better and teams like Detroit get a little worse.  A few disappointments like New Orleans - but there always are, and they've got time to get better if CP3 isn't out too long.

I guess...  I just don't see the league's current standings, a few teams being worse than expected, as being anything out of the ordinary.   

It strikes me as strange that a league with every team spending the same amount of money has so few legitimate title contenders. Look at the NFL and all the teams that had a serious chance at the Super Bowl because of smart salary cap management, while the NBA really only has 4.

NFL- Colts, Chargers, Titans, Ravens, Eagles, Cardinals, Steelers, Giants, etc. (there's more)

NBA- Celtics, Lakers, Cavs, Spurs

It is how the leagues are set up.

NFL is about team.  Rules are set up that way
NBA is about the Superstars.  don't have a top one, you are done.

NFL allows for teams to move on from players that do not work without having to find a team to match contracts, likely with a player that is overpayed.

NFL gets rid of players that are all hype, all potential and no show on the field.  Therefor players work harder learning their crafts instead of trying to cruise on athletic ability.  NBA players get guaranteed money.

Time for the owners to work a little harder in the upcoming CBA negotiations. Get ready for a loooong and likely ugly process.

[Fafnir]

EDIT: I don't have any way of judging this, but I don't think it's that uncommon to only have four teams judged to REALLY be legit title contenders.  That strikes me as about the same as usual.  It was considered five teams before Jameer Nelson got hurt.  There are still a few teams out there that could get things right and make some noise before all is said and done.  There's four teams winning more than 79% of their games and four teams winning 28% or less; that's not too unbalanced.  We're seeing a transition where teams like Atlanta get a little better and teams like Detroit get a little worse.  A few disappointments like New Orleans - but there always are, and they've got time to get better if CP3 isn't out too long.

I guess...  I just don't see the league's current standings, a few teams being worse than expected, as being anything out of the ordinary.   

It strikes me as strange that a league with every team spending the same amount of money has so few legitimate title contenders. Look at the NFL and all the teams that had a serious chance at the Super Bowl because of smart salary cap management, while the NBA really only has 4.

NFL- Colts, Chargers, Titans, Ravens, Eagles, Cardinals, Steelers, Giants, etc. (there's more)

NBA- Celtics, Lakers, Cavs, Spurs

It is how the leagues are set up.

NFL is about team.  Rules are set up that way
NBA is about the Superstars.  don't have a top one, you are done.

NFL allows for teams to move on from players that do not work without having to find a team to match contracts, likely with a player that is overpayed.

NFL gets rid of players that are all hype, all potential and no show on the field.  Therefor players work harder learning their crafts instead of trying to cruise on athletic ability.  NBA players get guaranteed money.

It is also a reflection of the different nature of Basketball and Football.

A single player has a much greater impact on basketball than in football. So having a top 5 player in basketball has a much greater effect than a top 5 player in football.

Having the ability to cut dead weight and drop bad contracts does help keep more teams competitive in the NFL though.

[MBz]

Well football, there's only 16 games.  So every game played is important.  NBA there's just so many games where you see players take nights off.

[fairweatherfan]

EDIT: I don't have any way of judging this, but I don't think it's that uncommon to only have four teams judged to REALLY be legit title contenders.  That strikes me as about the same as usual.  It was considered five teams before Jameer Nelson got hurt.  There are still a few teams out there that could get things right and make some noise before all is said and done.  There's four teams winning more than 79% of their games and four teams winning 28% or less; that's not too unbalanced.  We're seeing a transition where teams like Atlanta get a little better and teams like Detroit get a little worse.  A few disappointments like New Orleans - but there always are, and they've got time to get better if CP3 isn't out too long.

I guess...  I just don't see the league's current standings, a few teams being worse than expected, as being anything out of the ordinary.   

It strikes me as strange that a league with every team spending the same amount of money has so few legitimate title contenders. Look at the NFL and all the teams that had a serious chance at the Super Bowl because of smart salary cap management, while the NBA really only has 4.

NFL- Colts, Chargers, Titans, Ravens, Eagles, Cardinals, Steelers, Giants, etc. (there's more)

NBA- Celtics, Lakers, Cavs, Spurs

Non-guaranteed money is by far the biggest reason for this - imagine if we could've just cut Vin Baker, Raef LaFrentz, Mark Blount, and just dropped them from our cap, no questions asked.  In the NBA the moves you make are permanent; barring a trade or exceptional circumstances, you're stuck with the salary on your cap.  In the NFL you can just wash your hands of it and only be out the salary and bonuses you've already paid. 

Secondary to this is the number of players on an NBA vs NFL team.  There are so many pieces to an NFL team and so few games that a lot of your success comes down to coaching and preparation.  This is true in the NBA too, but with fewer players on the court, the talent of the 5 guys you have out there becomes a much larger factor.