Kobe Bryant Game Winning Shots - Myth of Myths

[Kwhit10]

hahaha Kobe has a 56 to 1 field goal to assist ratio! That's hilarious.

Kobe fanatic: HE'S CLUTCH AND HE PASSES MORE AND MAKES HIS TEAMMATES BETTER UH HUH, UH HUH, UH HUH!

Me: actually, he isn't. At all. and he makes a basket for one of his teammates once for every fifty six times he MAKES a shot. Not takes, makes. Since his FG% is roughly 50%, that means for every 100 times he shoots, he passes the ball once. In other words his teams mates have a little less than a 1% chance of ever getting the ball back from Kobe after they pass it to him.

It's 56FGA (attempted) not made.  Even still that is a pretty ridiculous number.  Not surprised about Melo, I remember Sportscenter doing something on game winners a few years ago and Melo was clearly at the top then comparing to Kobe and LeBron.

[Dirk]

hahaha Kobe has a 56 to 1 field goal to assist ratio! That's hilarious.

Kobe fanatic: HE'S CLUTCH AND HE PASSES MORE AND MAKES HIS TEAMMATES BETTER UH HUH, UH HUH, UH HUH!

Me: actually, he isn't. At all. and he makes a basket for one of his teammates once for every fifty six times he MAKES a shot. Not takes, makes. Since his FG% is roughly 50%, that means for every 100 times he shoots, he passes the ball once. In other words his teams mates have a little less than a 1% chance of ever getting the ball back from Kobe after they pass it to him.

TP. So true hahaha.

PP's decisions and sharing in this situations is very good IMO. You just have to go back to rays 3 against philly the other night, where PP gave him the pass.

When it comes down to the last possession, PP keeps the ball in his hands a lot, but really looks for the best option available most of the time. He dribbles, tries to penetrate or goes around a screen entering the 2pt FG area and then he either shoots the pull up (such a great shot of his), goes hard to the basket getting probably fouled and to the free throw line (3rd in FT made after Chauncy and Gilbert), or dishes the ball to the open man after the D collapsed towards him.

On another note, I realized before that Carmelo really comes up on top of everyone on this stat we are talking about. He is clutch.

[BrickJames]

I wonder where Bird and Jordan would be on this list as well.

One should not be penalized for taking these shots, even if they miss.  The fact they want the ball in these scenarios speaks volumes.

[NYCfan]

Well, for the guy who said he always turns it to the Lakers and can't remember "any" examples of Kobe coming through with the clutch, you have to check your remote: you might have been turning on games involving Coby Karl. Yep, I registered just for this post, but...

Here's eight minutes of clutch shots and game-winners. The most memorable being the two threes against Portland to win the Pacific in 2004.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J2yzNQWFYko

Alas, this video doesn't have everything. So...

This year against the Rockets:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CaKMDKwJYy4

This year against the Pacers:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pBYK_1Ud2BY

Last year, Game 1 WCF.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FT9cjge3ZL0

Against the Sonics last year:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IXNNPjSRxSY

A couple of sort of memorable ones against the Suns in the playoffs in 2006.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W2a-JKKIIlE

Against Clippers 3 years ago.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zQKz_BYvGqU

Against Cavs in 2006. In final 1:30, three times the Lakers get the ball with the game tied. Three times Kobe hits jumpers to put them ahead.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hsCanLulkrc

Hey, Kobe can even go to a rape trial during the day and then come back at night and hit a winner. Let's see that put into some type of formula. (5:50 mark)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tX7C4RWhdgo

Kobe in 2000 playoffs, down 1, game 2 against the Suns.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=teIq5v0tTnY

And that's just the ones on youtube that I can think of right now.

Passing in the clutch? Last week he hit Fisher for a tying 3 with 10 seconds left against Charlotte. How about Christmas? I think he made some pretty nice passes to Gasol in the final minutes with that game in the balance, or does the fact they put the game away in the last 2 minutes instead of the last 2 seconds not mean as much? Or Game 3 of the WCF in 2000, a pass to Ron Harper for the winning shot. And numerous passes over the years to Luke Walton and Devean George for winning shots that are inevitably bricked (note: passing to Luke Walton for a 3 isn't quite as good of a percentage play as passing to, say, Ray Allen). Earlier this year he passed to Sasha for a go-ahead 3 with 10 seconds to go. Brick. Lakers get it back, down 3 with 2 seconds left. Kobe gets it from 35 feet out, hits the rim, misses, is counted as not being clutch. Ok.

On the 3-peat teams, who was the clutch player during those years? In the final minutes, was shaq the one getting the ball the most? Was Fisher, Fox, Samaki? Who was passing to Horry for the winning in Game 3 of the first round in 2001?

In the last five minutes of a game, I'd be willing to bet that the majority of coaches and players would take Kobe over anyone. In the Olympic gold medal game, who took control of the game away from Spain? carmleo? LeBron?

Yes, he misses game-winners. So did Jordan. So did Bird. So did Magic. Bird was clutch? In the 1987 Finals he was 0-for-1 in game-winning shots while Magic was 1-for-1. 100 percent to Zero! Magic was more clutch! Sure.

I understand the hate of Kobe here, and have no problem with it (let's face it, if he was a Celtic you'd love him and I'd hate him, and if Pierce was a Laker you'd hate him and I'd love him). But to just look at stats - which are subjective because the person is always deciding what value to give those numbers - is to miss the bigger picture.

Do I think he sometimes forces it in the final seconds? Yeah. But there are also times when he passes it when I wish he didn't (this year against the Spurs, he hits the 3 to go ahead with 10 seconds, but passes to Ariza who travels at the end). But there is more to clutch than last second as well. If the Lakers are down 5 with a minute to go, a shot there is just as important as one in a tie game with 20 seconds left, because if you miss that one when down by 5, the game's over. Not so in a tie game. In the last 5 minutes of a game, I've seen Kobe win many more games than he's lost in his career. And I have a feeling that'll continue.

[Big Ticket]

People don't put missed clutch shots on YouTube.

[blueygreen]

Well, for the guy who said he always turns it to the Lakers and can't remember "any" examples of Kobe coming through with the clutch, you have to check your remote: you might have been turning on games involving Coby Karl. Yep, I registered just for this post, but...

Here's eight minutes of clutch shots and game-winners. The most memorable being the two threes against Portland to win the Pacific in 2004.


Passing in the clutch? Last week he hit Fisher for a tying 3 with 10 seconds left against Charlotte. How about Christmas? I think he made some pretty nice passes to Gasol in the final minutes with that game in the balance, or does the fact they put the game away in the last 2 minutes instead of the last 2 seconds not mean as much? Or Game 3 of the WCF in 2000, a pass to Ron Harper for the winning shot. And numerous passes over the years to Luke Walton and Devean George for winning shots that are inevitably bricked (note: passing to Luke Walton for a 3 isn't quite as good of a percentage play as passing to, say, Ray Allen). Earlier this year he passed to Sasha for a go-ahead 3 with 10 seconds to go. Brick. Lakers get it back, down 3 with 2 seconds left. Kobe gets it from 35 feet out, hits the rim, misses, is counted as not being clutch. Ok.

On the 3-peat teams, who was the clutch player during those years? In the final minutes, was shaq the one getting the ball the most? Was Fisher, Fox, Samaki? Who was passing to Horry for the winning in Game 3 of the first round in 2001?

In the last five minutes of a game, I'd be willing to bet that the majority of coaches and players would take Kobe over anyone. In the Olympic gold medal game, who took control of the game away from Spain? carmleo? LeBron?

Yes, he misses game-winners. So did Jordan. So did Bird. So did Magic. Bird was clutch? In the 1987 Finals he was 0-for-1 in game-winning shots while Magic was 1-for-1. 100 percent to Zero! Magic was more clutch! Sure.

I understand the hate of Kobe here, and have no problem with it (let's face it, if he was a Celtic you'd love him and I'd hate him, and if Pierce was a Laker you'd hate him and I'd love him). But to just look at stats - which are subjective because the person is always deciding what value to give those numbers - is to miss the bigger picture.

Do I think he sometimes forces it in the final seconds? Yeah. But there are also times when he passes it when I wish he didn't (this year against the Spurs, he hits the 3 to go ahead with 10 seconds, but passes to Ariza who travels at the end). But there is more to clutch than last second as well. If the Lakers are down 5 with a minute to go, a shot there is just as important as one in a tie game with 20 seconds left, because if you miss that one when down by 5, the game's over. Not so in a tie game. In the last 5 minutes of a game, I've seen Kobe win many more games than he's lost in his career. And I have a feeling that'll continue.

Well, I had a few things to say, but this said most of them

People don't put missed clutch shots on YouTube.

Okay, so let's move onto your examples of clutch passing. You mention his pass to Fisher against Charlotte, then you cite Pau Gasol's good play on Christmas (which may have been due to good passing, I haven't watched the game in a while ) and then your next reference dates back to the year 2000. So...three times in 9 years? In approximately 700 games of basketball? Oh, and then there are the "countless" times he passed to a guy that missed the shot.

Of course, if we look at Pierce, Kobe doesn't have a "Ray Allen" to pass to. No, he's just had Fisher, Horry, Shaq, Fox, Gasol, etc. to pass to. Aside from the past season and a half, who has Pierce had to pass to? Delonte West? Antoine Walker? Perhaps it's simply that Pierce passes the ball to the open teammate more often and actually places trust in them to make the shot rather than play 47 minutes of "Kobe-ball" and then get angry when the guy he suddenly passes to misses the shot. Sometimes it's the psychological confidence which really affects clutch shooting, and when a player like Pierce often passes to his teammates for the open shots it shows to his team that he believes in them and that they're all an integral part to their success.

You do make a good point about quantifying the data (that Kobe could well be more clutch over the last 2 minutes rather than 24 seconds). But I'd make the argument that that is just as true for any "clutch" player in the last few minutes.

Kudos for coming on here and discussing this rationally (plethora of youtube videos excepted ).

[jimmehx]

WOW 56 FGA to 1 assist? That is an incredible stat. hahahaha!

[nickagneta]

After looking over those stats I'd love to see a sabermetric to measure just those stats listed and see who is considered the best. My guess is that after just breezing through the stats quickly, a case could be made that it's Paul Pierce.

Just looking at players who have hit 10 or more of those clutch defined shots Pierce is tied for 10th in most shots made, is 6th in FG%, he's 3rd in FTA, 1st in FTM, 3rd in FT%, 1st in assists(by a large margin), 1st in assist/FGA(by a gigantic margin), and second in FGM that he was involved in(FGM + Assists).

Pierce's all around game offensively in these circumstances I believe is better than anyone's and if you combine that with the fact that defensively, during that time metric, the only other person I would want guarding the other team's best player is maybe Kobe, maybe, then I think it's fair to say that an argument can be made that Pierce is the most clutch player in the league.

[celticmaestro]

TP for the Big Ticket.

The stand-out statistic for me was how consistent Melo is in the "clutch."

[Fafnir]

TP for the Big Ticket.

The stand-out statistic for me was how consistent Melo is in the "clutch."

Melo has all the physical tools and skills to get off a high percentage shot against almost anyone. He has a dynamite first step, good elevation, great size, and a quick release. It is frustrating to watch him play sometimes. I always felt he should be better than he is, which is pretty [dang] good.

[wahz]

After looking over those stats I'd love to see a sabermetric to measure just those stats listed and see who is considered the best. My guess is that after just breezing through the stats quickly, a case could be made that it's Paul Pierce.

Just looking at players who have hit 10 or more of those clutch defined shots Pierce is tied for 10th in most shots made, is 6th in FG%, he's 3rd in FTA, 1st in FTM, 3rd in FT%, 1st in assists(by a large margin), 1st in assist/FGA(by a gigantic margin), and second in FGM that he was involved in(FGM + Assists).

Pierce's all around game offensively in these circumstances I believe is better than anyone's and if you combine that with the fact that defensively, during that time metric, the only other person I would want guarding the other team's best player is maybe Kobe, maybe, then I think it's fair to say that an argument can be made that Pierce is the most clutch player in the league.

way to go Nick! I was going to do a post pointing out these things and you did a better job than I would have. He, PP, is solid in every category including to's and ft's and percentage makes and total makes but the assist number is awesome.

I know I say it over and over but when we have PP on the floor with kobe, we have a slight advantage over them at that psition. Its been true for ten plus years and is still true. And PP is also more clutch than Kobe

[LarBrd33]

NYCfan... i'm not going to watch any of those videos... nor am I going to read that essay.   Get off Kobe's jock.

If you want, I can show you a video that clearly indicates that Gerald Green is next coming of Dominique Wilkins.   

I'm bored to tears.   Show me the 50 missed game winners by that little prissy brat that you worship.  Kobe is a choke artist.  Thanks.