Author Topic: Kobe Bryant Game Winning Shots - Myth of Myths  (Read 7828 times)

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Kobe Bryant Game Winning Shots - Myth of Myths
« on: February 07, 2009, 02:56:00 PM »

Offline Big Ticket

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Got to hand it to Roland Beech of 82games.com.  I completely agree with most intelligent fans - stats cannot tell you who the best player is, who the best defender is, or even who the best team is.  Some things just come down to watching the game and getting that feeling in your gut.  Even then, the chances of everybody agreeing on these topics is is about as good as Perkins nailing a game winning 3 pointer.

But some things can be proven with stats.  One of those, is shooting ability on game winners.  Here, Roland Beech studies game winning shots from the past 5 full regular seasons and playoffs, plus this year so far.  His most noticeable findings?  Ray Allen is clutch.  Like, really clutch.  And Kobe Bryant.... well.... isn't.

http://82games.com/gamewinningshots.htm

Some excerpts:

Quote
Game Winning Shot Opportunity = 24 seconds or less left in the game, team with the ball is either tied or down by 1 to 2 points.

Way to go Ray...

Quote
Ray Allen is in third overall but also leads in most 3's made under our game winning defined situation specifics, with eight three pointers. Long live the NBA's arguably best pure shooter (Ray also currently leads the NBA in Midrange 2pt FG%).


Keep shooting Kobe...

Quote
...and then we get to Kobe Bryant. Kobe fans don't like to hear it, but while their man is #4 in the league in total game winners hit, he holds the top spot in a less glamorous category: most game winning opportunity missed shots!

    42 - Kobe
    35 - Vince Carter
    33 - Joe Johnson, LeBron
    32 - Crawford
    31 - Billups

Now we're not Kobe haters by any means and I will readily give him his due as one of the best NBA players (note however, I didn't say the best) but he certainly has an overblown reputation when it comes to the clutch shot: people remember the ones he hits, but not the ones he misses, and heck you think a 56 FGA to 1 assist ratio might be part of the problem?




"It ain't about me.  It's about us."  - KG, interview with John Thompson, 2005 All Star Game.

Re: Kobe Bryant Game Winning Shots - Myth of Myths
« Reply #1 on: February 07, 2009, 03:00:14 PM »

Offline zerophase

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nice work... i'll give you a TP for this one.

Become Legendary.

Re: Kobe Bryant Game Winning Shots - Myth of Myths
« Reply #2 on: February 07, 2009, 03:30:17 PM »

Offline markketch

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Obviously though this definition means a shot may not actually be a game winner -- it may only tie a game (if down two points) or it may allow enough time for the opponents to get a game winning shot of their own. Still it seems a reasonable compromise.


That's a little important to note.

Re: Kobe Bryant Game Winning Shots - Myth of Myths
« Reply #3 on: February 07, 2009, 03:36:42 PM »

Offline Roy Hobbs

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Wahoo!  They finally updated this.  I love this stat, just because it disproves things such as "Kobe is much more clutch than Lebron", etc.

TP.

All the negativity in this town sucks. It sucks, and it stinks, and it sucks. - Rick Pitino

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Re: Kobe Bryant Game Winning Shots - Myth of Myths
« Reply #4 on: February 07, 2009, 03:38:12 PM »

Offline KCattheStripe

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Wahoo!  They finally updated this.  I love this stat, just because it disproves things such as "Kobe is much more clutch than Lebron", etc.

TP.

I was really surprised by Carmello's percentage. Bumps him up in my book.

Re: Kobe Bryant Game Winning Shots - Myth of Myths
« Reply #5 on: February 07, 2009, 03:39:54 PM »

Offline Big Ticket

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Obviously though this definition means a shot may not actually be a game winner -- it may only tie a game (if down two points) or it may allow enough time for the opponents to get a game winning shot of their own. Still it seems a reasonable compromise.


That's a little important to note.

Yes, it is.  It doesn't differentiate between a shot taken with under a second left that is a true game winning buzzer beater and one that is taken in a tie game with 20 seconds left.  There is obviously a difference in "clutch" between the two.  But... I think it's safe to say that these difference should more than average out in the long run.  Most of these guys (LeBron, Kobe, Melo, Vince, etc) are going to be taking the bulk of the shots in a close game with under 24 seconds, and their individual distributions/histogram (i.e. number of shots taken with 20-24 seconds left, number taken with 16-20 seconds left, etc) probably are all pretty close. 

Basically what I'm saying is that this data is not perfect, but it's a darn close.


"It ain't about me.  It's about us."  - KG, interview with John Thompson, 2005 All Star Game.

Re: Kobe Bryant Game Winning Shots - Myth of Myths
« Reply #6 on: February 07, 2009, 03:40:58 PM »

Offline Big Ticket

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Wahoo!  They finally updated this.  I love this stat, just because it disproves things such as "Kobe is much more clutch than Lebron", etc.

TP.

I was really surprised by Carmello's percentage. Bumps him up in my book.

He has had a knack for game winners.  I wasn't surprised that he was up there at all.  (I think I had read the old version of this study that Roy mentioned though, and Melo was #1 in made shots at that time... so maybe that's why I wasn't surprised.)


"It ain't about me.  It's about us."  - KG, interview with John Thompson, 2005 All Star Game.

Re: Kobe Bryant Game Winning Shots - Myth of Myths
« Reply #7 on: February 07, 2009, 03:45:31 PM »

Offline KCattheStripe

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Wahoo!  They finally updated this.  I love this stat, just because it disproves things such as "Kobe is much more clutch than Lebron", etc.

TP.

I was really surprised by Carmello's percentage. Bumps him up in my book.

He has had a knack for game winners.  I wasn't surprised that he was up there at all.  (I think I had read the old version of this study that Roy mentioned though, and Melo was #1 in made shots at that time... so maybe that's why I wasn't surprised.)


Why you gotta call me out for lack of research, thats cold Ticket. I thought we were boys...

Re: Kobe Bryant Game Winning Shots - Myth of Myths
« Reply #8 on: February 07, 2009, 04:02:03 PM »

Offline Big Ticket

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Wahoo!  They finally updated this.  I love this stat, just because it disproves things such as "Kobe is much more clutch than Lebron", etc.

TP.

I was really surprised by Carmello's percentage. Bumps him up in my book.

He has had a knack for game winners.  I wasn't surprised that he was up there at all.  (I think I had read the old version of this study that Roy mentioned though, and Melo was #1 in made shots at that time... so maybe that's why I wasn't surprised.)


Why you gotta call me out for lack of research, thats cold Ticket. I thought we were boys...
Oh we are!  No calling out, just saying I wasn't surprised.  Melo doesn't get a ton of credit for making big shots, so I am guessing more people than not would be surprised.


"It ain't about me.  It's about us."  - KG, interview with John Thompson, 2005 All Star Game.

Re: Kobe Bryant Game Winning Shots - Myth of Myths
« Reply #9 on: February 07, 2009, 04:03:16 PM »

Offline KCattheStripe

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Wahoo!  They finally updated this.  I love this stat, just because it disproves things such as "Kobe is much more clutch than Lebron", etc.

TP.

I was really surprised by Carmello's percentage. Bumps him up in my book.

He has had a knack for game winners.  I wasn't surprised that he was up there at all.  (I think I had read the old version of this study that Roy mentioned though, and Melo was #1 in made shots at that time... so maybe that's why I wasn't surprised.)


Why you gotta call me out for lack of research, thats cold Ticket. I thought we were boys...
Oh we are!  No calling out, just saying I wasn't surprised.  Melo doesn't get a ton of credit for making big shots, so I am guessing more people than not would be surprised.

Aight then, TP!  ;)

Re: Kobe Bryant Game Winning Shots - Myth of Myths
« Reply #10 on: February 07, 2009, 04:15:56 PM »

Offline bballdog384

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Paul Pierce is owning in assists... He has 9 when the next highest 6 by a few point guards. This just goes to show how he is an unselfish player and trusts his teammates.
"You can't play like a robot" -Coach Stevens

Re: Kobe Bryant Game Winning Shots - Myth of Myths
« Reply #11 on: February 07, 2009, 04:20:27 PM »

Offline Rondo_is_better

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hahaha Kobe has a 56 to 1 field goal to assist ratio! That's hilarious.

Kobe fanatic: HE'S CLUTCH AND HE PASSES MORE AND MAKES HIS TEAMMATES BETTER UH HUH, UH HUH, UH HUH!

Me: actually, he isn't. At all. and he makes a basket for one of his teammates once for every fifty six times he MAKES a shot. Not takes, makes. Since his FG% is roughly 50%, that means for every 100 times he shoots, he passes the ball once. In other words his teams mates have a little less than a 1% chance of ever getting the ball back from Kobe after they pass it to him.
Grab a few boards, keep the TO's under 14, close out on shooters and we'll win.

Re: Kobe Bryant Game Winning Shots - Myth of Myths
« Reply #12 on: February 07, 2009, 04:24:53 PM »

Offline LarBrd33

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Got to hand it to Roland Beech of 82games.com.  I completely agree with most intelligent fans - stats cannot tell you who the best player is, who the best defender is, or even who the best team is.  Some things just come down to watching the game and getting that feeling in your gut.  Even then, the chances of everybody agreeing on these topics is is about as good as Perkins nailing a game winning 3 pointer.

But some things can be proven with stats.  One of those, is shooting ability on game winners.  Here, Roland Beech studies game winning shots from the past 5 full regular seasons and playoffs, plus this year so far.  His most noticeable findings?  Ray Allen is clutch.  Like, really clutch.  And Kobe Bryant.... well.... isn't.

http://82games.com/gamewinningshots.htm

Some excerpts:

Quote
Game Winning Shot Opportunity = 24 seconds or less left in the game, team with the ball is either tied or down by 1 to 2 points.

Way to go Ray...

Quote
Ray Allen is in third overall but also leads in most 3's made under our game winning defined situation specifics, with eight three pointers. Long live the NBA's arguably best pure shooter (Ray also currently leads the NBA in Midrange 2pt FG%).


Keep shooting Kobe...

Quote
...and then we get to Kobe Bryant. Kobe fans don't like to hear it, but while their man is #4 in the league in total game winners hit, he holds the top spot in a less glamorous category: most game winning opportunity missed shots!

    42 - Kobe
    35 - Vince Carter
    33 - Joe Johnson, LeBron
    32 - Crawford
    31 - Billups

Now we're not Kobe haters by any means and I will readily give him his due as one of the best NBA players (note however, I didn't say the best) but he certainly has an overblown reputation when it comes to the clutch shot: people remember the ones he hits, but not the ones he misses, and heck you think a 56 FGA to 1 assist ratio might be part of the problem?




I've been saying this over and over and over for the last 2 years.  I really don't understand how Kobe gets this reputation of being extremely clutch.   Everyone always says, "if I need to have the ball in someone's hand at the end of a game... i go with Kobe every single time".   But I can't think of any examples where this guy has come through clutch.   Every single time I've turned on a game when it's down to the final shot... Kobe has bricked it.  Every single time.   Where has he got this reputation from?

Re: Kobe Bryant Game Winning Shots - Myth of Myths
« Reply #13 on: February 07, 2009, 04:31:04 PM »

Offline LarBrd33

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Myth BUSTED

Re: Kobe Bryant Game Winning Shots - Myth of Myths
« Reply #14 on: February 07, 2009, 04:50:27 PM »

Offline Finkelskyhook

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The hate Kobe threads are beginning to catch up to the trade Scal threads.