Hornets Regret Signing Posey Already?

[BballTim]

James Posey is what you call a "final piece". He is the guy you add to an elite team to push them over the top and get them a ring. He does the little things that you need someone to do if you want to get a ring. However, you need to have the proper core players as well. Your team must already be excellent for James Posey to make an important difference. The Hornets are not excellent; they are not elite. That's why Posey hasn't helped them. I would regret signing him to such a long deal too if I felt like my team wasn't good enough to compete for a ring.

excellent analysis of the value of a unique player like posey.  i believe he put the Celtics over the top last season. think about it - this Celtic team is not that gifted offensively ........ they can struggle to score at times ....... just think how easy points came to the Bird teams and even the Cowens' teams.

the current team's genius is their team defense, which to me is beautiful to watch. but they are missing a scoring punch off the bench ........ and i'm with Coach Bo - what Ainge was thinking worrying about 2011 is beyond me.

  Maybe Ainge was thinking that Posey's nearing the end of his usefulness and he's not worth the money over the next few years.

or maybe he just misjudged the market on Pose (as with almost everybody else for that matter)...

i mean, why would he have targeted Pose so deep into FA and offered the full MLE for 3 years if he thought Pose's usefullness was in such a decline?

if money was the biggest issue, then why didn't he just pick up a guy like Barnes who signed for one year at 1.2 mil?

  He said that he offered Posey 2 years because that was how long he'd be worth the money but was willing to overpay him for a 3rd year. You don't think he expected Posey to decline?

I think he wanted Posey, but he didn't want to pay over the market for him. He clearly wanted him or he would have just gone out and picked up someone else.

  Sure he wanted Posey. I wanted Posey. Almost everyone on either side of the argument would rather have Posey on our team this year. Not everyone agrees that having him on the books for a couple of years beyond his usefulness was the way to go.

[Roy Hobbs]

By the way, for those arguing that Posey wasn't as important as some others think, here's the opinion of Celtics co-owner Steve Pagliuca in the off-season:

"James Posey is a huge priority and hopefully we'll get James back. He's is the key to our team," said Pagliuca.

That's one man's opinion, but it's clear to me that at least Pagliuca thought we'd be better with Posey here.  The question is, is it a travesty to pay "the key to our team" an extra $7 million in a 4th year, when the alternative is downgrading our team in the short term (when we are in prime championship contention)? 

[winsomme]

James Posey is what you call a "final piece". He is the guy you add to an elite team to push them over the top and get them a ring. He does the little things that you need someone to do if you want to get a ring. However, you need to have the proper core players as well. Your team must already be excellent for James Posey to make an important difference. The Hornets are not excellent; they are not elite. That's why Posey hasn't helped them. I would regret signing him to such a long deal too if I felt like my team wasn't good enough to compete for a ring.

excellent analysis of the value of a unique player like posey.  i believe he put the Celtics over the top last season. think about it - this Celtic team is not that gifted offensively ........ they can struggle to score at times ....... just think how easy points came to the Bird teams and even the Cowens' teams.

the current team's genius is their team defense, which to me is beautiful to watch. but they are missing a scoring punch off the bench ........ and i'm with Coach Bo - what Ainge was thinking worrying about 2011 is beyond me.

  Maybe Ainge was thinking that Posey's nearing the end of his usefulness and he's not worth the money over the next few years.

or maybe he just misjudged the market on Pose (as with almost everybody else for that matter)...

i mean, why would he have targeted Pose so deep into FA and offered the full MLE for 3 years if he thought Pose's usefullness was in such a decline?

if money was the biggest issue, then why didn't he just pick up a guy like Barnes who signed for one year at 1.2 mil?

  He said that he offered Posey 2 years because that was how long he'd be worth the money but was willing to overpay him for a 3rd year. You don't think he expected Posey to decline?

I think he wanted Posey, but he didn't want to pay over the market for him. He clearly wanted him or he would have just gone out and picked up someone else.

  Sure he wanted Posey. I wanted Posey. Almost everyone on either side of the argument would rather have Posey on our team this year. Not everyone agrees that having him on the books for a couple of years beyond his usefulness was the way to go.

but again, his usefulness in that 3rd and 4th year is also being debated. It is not a given that Posey would decline to the point of not being useful or that his contract would be a huge detriment to this team in the 4th year (which was the only year that they didn't go to).

plus, why couldn't we look at that contract like people are looking at Wally's this season. a expiring contract that could be used as trade bait?

[EJPLAYA]

That's the interesting thing about an analogy Roy. They usually are about 2 different things otherwise it would be the same and not an analogy... 

Shouldn't analogies be apt?

  What if you need a car? I was assuming that was understood, since we needed to sign a player.

Not all cars are created equal, just like not all NBA teams are in an equal position to win.  NBA championships are fairly unique; there have been what, 59 of them in history?

Bidding on a player as the "final piece" to an NBA championship puzzle is more akin to bidding on a 1939 Mercedes Silver Arrow.  If you're lucky enough in a position to win one, it doesn't necessarily make sense to quibble over price.

That's a lot of assumptions Roy. Including the one where Posey is the "final piece". I am not sure that we are THAT much better than we would have been with Posey in the lineup, so your  analogy is just as over the top as BBALL TIM's was labeled. If we had signed Posey we would have likely had him and House. Although we all know I am not a huge TA fan, his numbers are not that much different than Posey's. Yes I think Posey would be able to match up against the bigger SF's in crunch time, but I definitely don't think with Posey we are guaranteed a championship and without him we have no chance... I wish it would have turned out differently, but Posey is no Mercedes Silver Arrow. (beautiful car by the way!)

[EJPLAYA]

The contract Posey got WAS "whatever he wanted" and we were smart enough not to do it and NO wasn't. I am happy for Posey that he got paid, because once again I really like the guy and know the difference he made in our team last year, however he chose money over another championship. He had a couple, so fine.

This is kind of an unsolvable discussion right now though because in 2010 and 2011 you will be able to be certain of the cost to NO and not until then. My opinion is they won't have a championship, and will have a harder time picking up that extra piece and instead will be losing Chris Paul. Then they REALLY will be regretting giving that old of a role player all that cash. I think DA made the right choice at the time, but only time will tell.

first off, BBall was talking 10-12 mil a year....as for Pose, who knows what exactly he wanted. certainly he would have taken more if offered.

the point i think most people are making here is that we should have at least matched what the market was for Pose and the market turned out to be 4 yrs full MLE.

as for being able to come to conclusions about this, i agree. we will have to wait and see down the road how it all plays out.

One team overpaying doesn't make that "the market" for a guy. NO thought they were one guy away from a championship team and they made the decision to give him more than he was worth. You didn't see other teams out there willing to hand Posey that contract, now did you?!

BBALL TIM's example was an exaggeration to make a point and you know it...

the market for any player is based on what teams are willing to pay. In this case the market for Posey turned out to be a 4 year deal at the MLE. Danny felt like the maket for him was lower and that IMO is why he lost him.

i do know that Bball was exaggerated to make his point. the problem is that his argument is based on the exaggeration not what Posey actually signed for....

the question that he posed was: where would you stop? what was the limit?

the fact is there was a limit. it was 4years at the MLE.  we have hard numbers on what it would have taken to sign Posey. So all exaggerating to make a point does in this situation is create a "strawman" argument.

nobody was saying that we should sign Pose to some unlimited contract. the argument is specifically related to what he actually signed for.

TEAMS (plural) is the key there though winsomme. ONE team was dumb and over-payed. That doesn't set the market.

Continuing the car analogy, if someone walks into the dealership and pays full sticker right now for a big Suburban or Expedition because they just had to have it right then, does that mean that they payed market value when the rest of us can walk in there and get it at dealers cost plus incentives?! Even if the color of the one they bought was the only one around in the color they wanted, it still doesn't mean that this was market value. It just means they individually valued something more than the rest of the people did and were willing to over pay for it. I don't fault DA for placing a value on Posey and not overpaying for him. Maybe he would have done it differently had he known how things would play out, but maybe not.

I think the better argument and what we are really all saying here is would you trade a 75% chance at championship #18 and have a 75% chance at having to blow the whole thing up and start over and maybe go another 20+ years without really contending again, or having a 50% chance at #18 and allowing ourselves to not be strapped with his contract and better our chances of remaining in contention. Maybe that should be another thread... 

[winsomme]

That's the interesting thing about an analogy Roy. They usually are about 2 different things otherwise it would be the same and not an analogy... 

Shouldn't analogies be apt?

  What if you need a car? I was assuming that was understood, since we needed to sign a player.

Not all cars are created equal, just like not all NBA teams are in an equal position to win.  NBA championships are fairly unique; there have been what, 59 of them in history?

Bidding on a player as the "final piece" to an NBA championship puzzle is more akin to bidding on a 1939 Mercedes Silver Arrow.  If you're lucky enough in a position to win one, it doesn't necessarily make sense to quibble over price.

That's a lot of assumptions Roy. Including the one where Posey is the "final piece". I am not sure that we are THAT much better than we would have been with Posey in the lineup, so your  analogy is just as over the top as BBALL TIM's was labeled. If we had signed Posey we would have likely had him and House. Although we all know I am not a huge TA fan, his numbers are not that much different than Posey's. Yes I think Posey would be able to match up against the bigger SF's in crunch time, but I definitely don't think with Posey we are guaranteed a championship and without him we have no chance... I wish it would have turned out differently, but Posey is no Mercedes Silver Arrow. (beautiful car by the way!)

this is also a bit of a "strawman". I don't think anybody is saying that Posey guaranteed another Title.

let me ask you this, EJ (and Bball too). Is there any scenario that plays out this season under which you would say that not signing Posey to that 4 year MLE deal was a mistake?

and if so, what is that scenario?

[BballTim]

By the way, for those arguing that Posey wasn't as important as some others think, here's the opinion of Celtics co-owner Steve Pagliuca in the off-season:

"James Posey is a huge priority and hopefully we'll get James back. He's is the key to our team," said Pagliuca.

That's one man's opinion, but it's clear to me that at least Pagliuca thought we'd be better with Posey here.  The question is, is it a travesty to pay "the key to our team" an extra $7 million in a 4th year, when the alternative is downgrading our team in the short term (when we are in prime championship contention)? 

  Either he was talking about our free agents or he's a lost cause. Every game we start 5 players that are more key to our team then Posey. I'll assume that you don't agree with him, but feel free to correct me if I'm wrong.

[winsomme]

By the way, for those arguing that Posey wasn't as important as some others think, here's the opinion of Celtics co-owner Steve Pagliuca in the off-season:

"James Posey is a huge priority and hopefully we'll get James back. He's is the key to our team," said Pagliuca.

That's one man's opinion, but it's clear to me that at least Pagliuca thought we'd be better with Posey here.  The question is, is it a travesty to pay "the key to our team" an extra $7 million in a 4th year, when the alternative is downgrading our team in the short term (when we are in prime championship contention)? 

  Either he was talking about our free agents or he's a lost cause. Every game we start 5 players that are more key to our team then Posey. I'll assume that you don't agree with him, but feel free to correct me if I'm wrong.

i think the point Roy is making there is that Pose was highly valued by the front office and important part of us winning a Title. not that he was literally more important than KG or Paul or Ray....

[BballTim]

let me ask you this, EJ (and Bball too). Is there any scenario that plays out this season under which you would say that not signing Posey to that 4 year MLE deal was a mistake?

and if so, what is that scenario?

  Honestly, no. I'd have to wait the 4 years to say. Here's something of a breakdown, though.

  No Regrets:

  We win a title in the next 2 years.

  We don't win a title in the next 2 years but we win a title in year 3 or 4 aided by someone who we sign with the MLE.

  We lose the title the next 2 years but the series we lose isn't close to a tossup.

  We don't win the title this year and the reason is more the play of our backup pg or c than backup sf.

  We re-sign or replace Ray and Paul with nearly equal players, still contend 3-4 years from now, and have a good player that we signed with the MLE on our roster.

  Regrets:

  We don't win the title and we lose a close series either because TA played really poorly or opposing sfs go off when Paul's not in the game.

  We don't win a title in the next 2-3 years, we don't replace Ray and Paul and drop from the ranks of the contenders.

  I could go on, but you get the picture.

  How would your list go? Do you have more regrets? Do you think that some of my "no regrets" should be "regrets"?

[BballTim]

By the way, for those arguing that Posey wasn't as important as some others think, here's the opinion of Celtics co-owner Steve Pagliuca in the off-season:

"James Posey is a huge priority and hopefully we'll get James back. He's is the key to our team," said Pagliuca.

That's one man's opinion, but it's clear to me that at least Pagliuca thought we'd be better with Posey here.  The question is, is it a travesty to pay "the key to our team" an extra $7 million in a 4th year, when the alternative is downgrading our team in the short term (when we are in prime championship contention)? 

  Either he was talking about our free agents or he's a lost cause. Every game we start 5 players that are more key to our team then Posey. I'll assume that you don't agree with him, but feel free to correct me if I'm wrong.

i think the point Roy is making there is that Pose was highly valued by the front office and important part of us winning a Title. not that he was literally more important than KG or Paul or Ray....

  Hence the statement "I'll assume that you don't agree with him".

[ssspence]

This saves them money in both the long and short term:

http://games.espn.go.com/nba/features/traderesult?players=2367~3019~1021~1709~671&teams=3~3~3~2~2&te=&cash=

Of course, I'm sure that Danny still doesn't want to take on Posey's salary commitment, but it would upgrade us at two positions.  The only player in that deal I'd miss is Scal.

Maybe Danny'd do it as follows (as would i):

http://games.espn.go.com/nba/features/traderesult?players=671~3241~2367~3429~1021&teams=2~2~3~3~3&te=&cash=

Note: POB doesn't work in this so I stuck in Giddens.

[tenn_smoothie]

one other factor for this team without Posey. Paul Pierce has to play more minutes in important games and is not as rested for the 4th quarter.

a perfect example is the the recent loss to LA when Pierce plays 45 minutes, much of them spent chasing Kobe around the perimeter, and is worn down by the 4th and OT and subsequently doesn't quite have the legs to make his offense go - as in the crucial missed FT. that miss was all about being tired - if you ever played you could see it - and a rested Pierce makes those two FT's. (Pierce will deny this btw)

[winsomme]

let me ask you this, EJ (and Bball too). Is there any scenario that plays out this season under which you would say that not signing Posey to that 4 year MLE deal was a mistake?

and if so, what is that scenario?

  Honestly, no. I'd have to wait the 4 years to say. Here's something of a breakdown, though.

  No Regrets:

  We win a title in the next 2 years.

  We don't win a title in the next 2 years but we win a title in year 3 or 4 aided by someone who we sign with the MLE.

  We lose the title the next 2 years but the series we lose isn't close to a tossup.

  We don't win the title this year and the reason is more the play of our backup pg or c than backup sf.

  We re-sign or replace Ray and Paul with nearly equal players, still contend 3-4 years from now, and have a good player that we signed with the MLE on our roster.

  Regrets:

  We don't win the title and we lose a close series either because TA played really poorly or opposing sfs go off when Paul's not in the game.

  We don't win a title in the next 2-3 years, we don't replace Ray and Paul and drop from the ranks of the contenders.

  I could go on, but you get the picture.

  How would your list go? Do you have more regrets? Do you think that some of my "no regrets" should be "regrets"?

these are all pretty fair. I would boil it down more.

If we win a Title in any of the next 3 seasons, then i think it is fair to say that it was not a mistake to pass on Pose. Three Titles would be nice, but two Titles out of KG and Paul IMO should be the bar....

that said, if we don't win this year or next, I'm not holding my breath for 3 or 4 because those are likely to be wildly different teams personnel-wise.

also, if we don't make the Finals this year (and the team is relatively healthy), i'm really gonna heat up on the decision not to sign Posey.

the problem as i see it is that if we win a Title this year, it's pretty much cut and dry. Clearly we did not need Pose.

but if we lose, it's gonna be very difficult to know how much that was due to not having Pose.

[winsomme]

By the way, for those arguing that Posey wasn't as important as some others think, here's the opinion of Celtics co-owner Steve Pagliuca in the off-season:

"James Posey is a huge priority and hopefully we'll get James back. He's is the key to our team," said Pagliuca.

That's one man's opinion, but it's clear to me that at least Pagliuca thought we'd be better with Posey here.  The question is, is it a travesty to pay "the key to our team" an extra $7 million in a 4th year, when the alternative is downgrading our team in the short term (when we are in prime championship contention)? 

  Either he was talking about our free agents or he's a lost cause. Every game we start 5 players that are more key to our team then Posey. I'll assume that you don't agree with him, but feel free to correct me if I'm wrong.

i think the point Roy is making there is that Pose was highly valued by the front office and important part of us winning a Title. not that he was literally more important than KG or Paul or Ray....

  Hence the statement "I'll assume that you don't agree with him".

but i think Roy does agree with him (him being Pagliuca) because i don't think Pags was literally saying that Pose was more important than the KG, Paul, Ray...

[BballTim]

let me ask you this, EJ (and Bball too). Is there any scenario that plays out this season under which you would say that not signing Posey to that 4 year MLE deal was a mistake?

and if so, what is that scenario?

  Honestly, no. I'd have to wait the 4 years to say. Here's something of a breakdown, though.

  No Regrets:

  We win a title in the next 2 years.

  We don't win a title in the next 2 years but we win a title in year 3 or 4 aided by someone who we sign with the MLE.

  We lose the title the next 2 years but the series we lose isn't close to a tossup.

  We don't win the title this year and the reason is more the play of our backup pg or c than backup sf.

  We re-sign or replace Ray and Paul with nearly equal players, still contend 3-4 years from now, and have a good player that we signed with the MLE on our roster.

  Regrets:

  We don't win the title and we lose a close series either because TA played really poorly or opposing sfs go off when Paul's not in the game.

  We don't win a title in the next 2-3 years, we don't replace Ray and Paul and drop from the ranks of the contenders.

  I could go on, but you get the picture.

  How would your list go? Do you have more regrets? Do you think that some of my "no regrets" should be "regrets"?

these are all pretty fair. I would boil it down more.

If we win a Title in any of the next 3 seasons, then i think it is fair to say that it was not a mistake to pass on Pose. Three Titles would be nice, but two Titles out of KG and Paul IMO should be the bar....

that said, if we don't win this year or next, I'm not holding my breath for 3 or 4 because those are likely to be wildly different teams personnel-wise.

also, if we don't make the Finals this year (and the team is relatively healthy), i'm really gonna heat up on the decision not to sign Posey.

the problem as i see it is that if we win a Title this year, it's pretty much cut and dry. Clearly we did not need Pose.

but if we lose, it's gonna be very difficult to know how much that was due to not having Pose.

  So if we lose to the Cavs because Z and Varejao outplay our bigs you're going to heat up the Posey decision? What if we lose a series when Eddie or Sam can't deal with pressure in the backcourt?