Hornets Regret Signing Posey Already?

[Roy Hobbs]

That's the interesting thing about an analogy Roy. They usually are about 2 different things otherwise it would be the same and not an analogy... 

Shouldn't analogies be apt?

[BballTim]

Of course it isn't a risk.

It's a bigger risk to pinch pennies the way Danny and Wyc did this summer, then throw a few of them away on people like Paddy O'Blount.

If Ainge is thinking more about 2011 than winning a title this year, he needs to move on. That's idiotic.

  Spending all that money on Posey would have been idiotic.

  Is there a limit to how much money Posey's worth? Would you pay him $10 million a year? $12 million? $15 million? At what point does it become sound budgetary philosophy? At what point does it cease to become pinching pennies?

  Car salesmen must love seeing you. I don't care how much it costs! I don't care if I'll be paying for it after it ceases to be useful! I just have to have it! Where do I sign?

Don't apologize for this statement BBALL TIM, even the car salesman part, you were 100% dead on with this comment. That's what these guys aren't understanding. You can't just pay someone whatever they are asking for just because the guy was a good part of the team. Your analogy is perfect. Getting that car even if you have to pay an affordable 300 dollars a month isn't the brightest idea when they tell you that you only have to make payments for 15 years! Sure the first year or so you are happy, but you are definitely going to regret it down the road. Just like we would have in years 4 and maybe even 3. Everyone on here complains about how Scal's salary somehow has handcuffed us from signing someone else, which really isn't true, but try doubling that and see what people are saying a few years down the road when we don't have all the big three and there is a legit star we want to sign and can't.... TP for your perfect analogy!

who is arguing that we should have paid Pose "whatever he wanted"? Nobody is arguing that. I think that is why CB called it a "strawman".

plus, why would we be doubling Posey's salary in 2010 and 2011. We are currently under the luxury tax for those seasons, so the salaries that would be doubled are the ones added to push over that tax threshold.

  We're under the tax for those seasons with 2-3 players under contract. They might want to re-sign or replace those guys. They might want to re-sign Rondo. They might want to have a bench.

  Maybe he called it a strawman because he just didn't want to answer the question. You can, or anyone else that wanted Posey can. What is the most money and the longest contract you'd give him? If Ainge and Wyc are so cheap, I'm just trying to get a sense of HOW cheap people think they are. If you'd have given Posey double what he got then you think Ainge is really cheap. If you'd give Posey what he got and not a dime more than you're living on hindsight. It's a fair question.

  Also, would we be undefeated with Posey? Better than we are now? We didn't sign Eddie or Tony until afterwards. What if we had Posey and not those two? Does Posey with a backcourt bench of Pruitt, Sam and Giddens make us better?

[BballTim]

That's the interesting thing about an analogy Roy. They usually are about 2 different things otherwise it would be the same and not an analogy... 

Shouldn't analogies be apt?

  What if you need a car? I was assuming that was understood, since we needed to sign a player.

[Roy Hobbs]

That's the interesting thing about an analogy Roy. They usually are about 2 different things otherwise it would be the same and not an analogy... 

Shouldn't analogies be apt?

  What if you need a car? I was assuming that was understood, since we needed to sign a player.

Not all cars are created equal, just like not all NBA teams are in an equal position to win.  NBA championships are fairly unique; there have been what, 59 of them in history?

Bidding on a player as the "final piece" to an NBA championship puzzle is more akin to bidding on a 1939 Mercedes Silver Arrow.  If you're lucky enough in a position to win one, it doesn't necessarily make sense to quibble over price.

[BillfromBoston]

Um...  isn't there a difference between buying a car and winning an NBA championship?  You can buy a car any time you want.  The chance at an NBA championship is a rare thing, and teams should maximize their chances to win when given the opportunity.

Paying Posey another $7 million wasn't going to kill this team.  Barring that, the team could have reinvested that money wisely into upgrading the team at other positions.  The Celtics did neither, which is why people are upset.  The Celtics have a good chance at a championship, but not as good of a chance as they should.

I continue to point out that the available players in LAST off-season's market were not the only thing factoring into the teams decisions...THIS year's off-season crop - namely the wealth of veteran bigs worthy of an MLE expenditure, factored heavily into their decision making process...

Also important to keep in mind - the team made offers and received interest from a multitude of vets: Barry, Lue, Finley, Barnes, Smith - all these players made known their interest in Boston, but Boston did not deem any worth more than minimal offers for one year...you can disagree with that decision, but you cannot deny that it PROVES that Ainge clearly had a plan and set a value on these available players accordingly..

For all our "mistakes" this past off-season, the team is still looking at 65+ wins and has as good a chance of repeating as anyhone - though losses to Cle and LAL clearly have the "i told you so's" out in full force claiming otherwise..

Ainge added Cassell and Brown last year by playing the waiver wire - don't see how that wasn't a good option for this year when there were no significan FA vets available that Ainge wanted to spend on...

...this off-season, Boston will open up the purse strings and party hard on the FA front...don't be surprised if a big man or two suddenly become available - Marcus Camby may very well be bought out after the trade deadline if LAC can't strike a deal and Joe Smith is sure to be set loose as well...

The time for moves is not at an end yet my friends and this contiued shopping season was anticipated by Ainge...until we lose in the playoffs specifically because our bench does nothing or opposing bigs kill us, this past off-season can't be judged...it ain't over...

[Jon]

I'd make a deal for him a heartbeat, the 4th years be [dang]ed.  The C's need help this year and there might not be anything worth playing for 3 years from now. 

And this is why I'm glad Danny is the GM and not any of us.  Exhibit 1.

And what exactly is the risk of having Posey on the books in 2011-2012 season?  Allen will be going on 37, KG 36, and Pierce 35.  Is there a chance we're still contending?  Sure.  But not nearly as good of a one as we have now. 

If Ainge has another way to add a piece without taking up room in 2011-2012, I'm all for it.  But with every year he lets slip by, the chance of one of the Big Three getting a serious, career-ending injury grows.  If the C's lose a close game 7 this year, I think we have Ainge to blame for kidding himself that the C's will be good enough for financial flexibility to matter in 2011-2012.   

Singing Posey decreases the Celtics flexibility to sign FA in 2009, 2010 and 2011 (or flip some expiring 2010 deals next year to a team looking to dump a quality player)

off the top of my head example: Scal, TA, House for Chris Kaman

Currently the Celtics are poised to do some retooling in the next year or two to either go for another run with Pierce and Garnett, or make moves for the future.

Heck with out Posey's 4th year in 2011, the C's are poised to go after 1-2 max level free agents.

The point is that without Posey's long deal, the C's have flexibility.

I'm going to reserve my judgement on the Posey decision until 2 years from now.

Whose to say we are going to be going after max level free agents in 2011?  That's not accounting for potentially resigning any players on the current team.  

Furthermore, whose to say two max players is going to yield another championship?  With all the talk about Webber's number being retired yesterday, it further goes to show that you can build a team the right way, and still never even make it to the Finals (or even the Conference Finals except for one year).

I get how Posey hurts the team's salary structure; however, I view the Celtics' future on a sliding scale of sorts.  With each passing year, the chance of this team winning a title goes down.  Thus, if it comes down to something helping us this year vs. something helping us next year or the year after, I value what could help this year much more.  

[BballTim]

That's the interesting thing about an analogy Roy. They usually are about 2 different things otherwise it would be the same and not an analogy... 

Shouldn't analogies be apt?

  What if you need a car? I was assuming that was understood, since we needed to sign a player.

Not all cars are created equal, just like not all NBA teams are in an equal position to win.  NBA championships are fairly unique; there have been what, 59 of them in history?

Bidding on a player as the "final piece" to an NBA championship puzzle is more akin to bidding on a 1939 Mercedes Silver Arrow.  If you're lucky enough in a position to win one, it doesn't necessarily make sense to quibble over price.

  If you're going to complain about analogies not being apt, then it shouldn't seem like if we get Posey we get the title and if we don't get him we don't. If you can say that we can't win the title without Posey and we can't lose it with him then your analogy is apt.

[Vermont Green]

I started this thread knowing full well that it would stir the pot some.  I want to try and sum up some points after finally reading all of this:

First, there is a blanket assumption by many that if we had signed Posey, that with out a doubt, we would either win the championship for sure or at a minumum, be in a much better position to win than we are now.  This is pure conjecture.  It might be true but one of the points is that it has not been true for NO.  There are other factors and they may still pull it together and maybe even win the West or even the championship but I think the current evidence points to Posey not making that much difference for them.

Second, there is always the criticism that this team or that team did not pay just a little more to get this player or that player (the Sox and Tex is another example).  Every team needs to put a value on a player.  The value that the Celtics put on Posey was higher than 28 of the other 29 teams but Danny is still a knucklehead for not outbidding all 29 other teams, hmmmmm.

And finally, we all want championships, the fans, the players, the team management, and the owners, but we are not all going to agree on how best to put the team together.  The margin is so fine here.  For example, say we sign Bonzi Wells, he plays well and help us to a title.  Based on this small move, Danny would go from a goat for not signing Posey and costing us a title to being a genious for coming up with a way to win another title without overspending on future years.  The point is that this could go either way because it is a very fine line between a title and almost.

I think DA did the smart thing to pass on Posey at that cost.  He does still owe us one good move to help the team.  What he did was start the season with what we had to see where we stand and then based on that, he can now make the move.  There is nothing wrong with that.  Had he signed Posey, that would have been largely playing all our cards in the off season without the benefit of seeing how the team is coming together for 2/3 of the season.

One small move can change everything but he needs to make the move.

[BballTim]

James Posey is what you call a "final piece". He is the guy you add to an elite team to push them over the top and get them a ring. He does the little things that you need someone to do if you want to get a ring. However, you need to have the proper core players as well. Your team must already be excellent for James Posey to make an important difference. The Hornets are not excellent; they are not elite. That's why Posey hasn't helped them. I would regret signing him to such a long deal too if I felt like my team wasn't good enough to compete for a ring.

excellent analysis of the value of a unique player like posey.  i believe he put the Celtics over the top last season. think about it - this Celtic team is not that gifted offensively ........ they can struggle to score at times ....... just think how easy points came to the Bird teams and even the Cowens' teams.

the current team's genius is their team defense, which to me is beautiful to watch. but they are missing a scoring punch off the bench ........ and i'm with Coach Bo - what Ainge was thinking worrying about 2011 is beyond me.

  Maybe Ainge was thinking that Posey's nearing the end of his usefulness and he's not worth the money over the next few years.

or maybe he just misjudged the market on Pose (as with almost everybody else for that matter)...

i mean, why would he have targeted Pose so deep into FA and offered the full MLE for 3 years if he thought Pose's usefullness was in such a decline?

if money was the biggest issue, then why didn't he just pick up a guy like Barnes who signed for one year at 1.2 mil?

  He said that he offered Posey 2 years because that was how long he'd be worth the money but was willing to overpay him for a 3rd year. You don't think he expected Posey to decline?

[BballTim]

As for the Posey situation in NO. I don't think the Hornets regret signing him at all. The Hornets aren't as good because Chandler and West having been playing nearly as well as last year and that they miss Pargo off the bench.

  I don't think that's the case. When they signed Posey they thought they were close to a title contending team. That doesn't appear to be the case. Why wouldn't the regret overpaying for a role player? After this year (which isn't going in NO's favor) he'll basically be a 33 year old declining player on a 3 year $20M contract.

[footey]

Posey is the most interesting choice because there won't be any chemistry issues. He is pretty much plug and play. He knows, and thrived in, our system, and was a great team-mate.  He did all the little things that others have tried to duplicate (Davis with the hustle, Scal with the 3) but just is not the same thing.  I would say we should swallow the 4th year, as we were prepared to go 3 with him.  While it is no guaranty that we will repeat with him, our chances improve dramatically, while not getting him (and assuming no other significant roster move is made), we are very likely NOT to repeat.

[Fafnir]

Posey is the most interesting choice because there won't be any chemistry issues. He is pretty much plug and play. He knows, and thrived in, our system, and was a great team-mate.  He did all the little things that others have tried to duplicate (Davis with the hustle, Scal with the 3) but just is not the same thing.  I would say we should swallow the 4th year, as we were prepared to go 3 with him.  While it is no guaranty that we will repeat with him, our chances improve dramatically, while not getting him (and assuming no other significant roster move is made), we are very likely NOT to repeat.

Really you think Posey alone would either:

A) improve our record enough to get home court advantage where it we are now in a dog fight for it.

B) puts us over the top of the Cavs and Lakers?

I think Posey is a nice role player who I'd love to have back. But to say we'd go from very likely to not repeat to very likely to repeat based on him is silly.


Rondo's improved play has a much bigger impact. Injuries will way in much more heavily as well.

[winsomme]

The contract Posey got WAS "whatever he wanted" and we were smart enough not to do it and NO wasn't. I am happy for Posey that he got paid, because once again I really like the guy and know the difference he made in our team last year, however he chose money over another championship. He had a couple, so fine.

This is kind of an unsolvable discussion right now though because in 2010 and 2011 you will be able to be certain of the cost to NO and not until then. My opinion is they won't have a championship, and will have a harder time picking up that extra piece and instead will be losing Chris Paul. Then they REALLY will be regretting giving that old of a role player all that cash. I think DA made the right choice at the time, but only time will tell.

first off, BBall was talking 10-12 mil a year....as for Pose, who knows what exactly he wanted. certainly he would have taken more if offered.

the point i think most people are making here is that we should have at least matched what the market was for Pose and the market turned out to be 4 yrs full MLE.

as for being able to come to conclusions about this, i agree. we will have to wait and see down the road how it all plays out.

One team overpaying doesn't make that "the market" for a guy. NO thought they were one guy away from a championship team and they made the decision to give him more than he was worth. You didn't see other teams out there willing to hand Posey that contract, now did you?!

BBALL TIM's example was an exaggeration to make a point and you know it...

the market for any player is based on what teams are willing to pay. In this case the market for Posey turned out to be a 4 year deal at the MLE. Danny felt like the maket for him was lower and that IMO is why he lost him.

i do know that Bball was exaggerated to make his point. the problem is that his argument is based on the exaggeration not what Posey actually signed for....

the question that he posed was: where would you stop? what was the limit?

the fact is there was a limit. it was 4years at the MLE.  we have hard numbers on what it would have taken to sign Posey. So all exaggerating to make a point does in this situation is create a "strawman" argument.

nobody was saying that we should sign Pose to some unlimited contract. the argument is specifically related to what he actually signed for.

[winsomme]

James Posey is what you call a "final piece". He is the guy you add to an elite team to push them over the top and get them a ring. He does the little things that you need someone to do if you want to get a ring. However, you need to have the proper core players as well. Your team must already be excellent for James Posey to make an important difference. The Hornets are not excellent; they are not elite. That's why Posey hasn't helped them. I would regret signing him to such a long deal too if I felt like my team wasn't good enough to compete for a ring.

excellent analysis of the value of a unique player like posey.  i believe he put the Celtics over the top last season. think about it - this Celtic team is not that gifted offensively ........ they can struggle to score at times ....... just think how easy points came to the Bird teams and even the Cowens' teams.

the current team's genius is their team defense, which to me is beautiful to watch. but they are missing a scoring punch off the bench ........ and i'm with Coach Bo - what Ainge was thinking worrying about 2011 is beyond me.

  Maybe Ainge was thinking that Posey's nearing the end of his usefulness and he's not worth the money over the next few years.

or maybe he just misjudged the market on Pose (as with almost everybody else for that matter)...

i mean, why would he have targeted Pose so deep into FA and offered the full MLE for 3 years if he thought Pose's usefullness was in such a decline?

if money was the biggest issue, then why didn't he just pick up a guy like Barnes who signed for one year at 1.2 mil?

  He said that he offered Posey 2 years because that was how long he'd be worth the money but was willing to overpay him for a 3rd year. You don't think he expected Posey to decline?

I think he wanted Posey, but he didn't want to pay over the market for him. He clearly wanted him or he would have just gone out and picked up someone else.

[BballTim]

The contract Posey got WAS "whatever he wanted" and we were smart enough not to do it and NO wasn't. I am happy for Posey that he got paid, because once again I really like the guy and know the difference he made in our team last year, however he chose money over another championship. He had a couple, so fine.

This is kind of an unsolvable discussion right now though because in 2010 and 2011 you will be able to be certain of the cost to NO and not until then. My opinion is they won't have a championship, and will have a harder time picking up that extra piece and instead will be losing Chris Paul. Then they REALLY will be regretting giving that old of a role player all that cash. I think DA made the right choice at the time, but only time will tell.

first off, BBall was talking 10-12 mil a year....as for Pose, who knows what exactly he wanted. certainly he would have taken more if offered.

the point i think most people are making here is that we should have at least matched what the market was for Pose and the market turned out to be 4 yrs full MLE.

as for being able to come to conclusions about this, i agree. we will have to wait and see down the road how it all plays out.

One team overpaying doesn't make that "the market" for a guy. NO thought they were one guy away from a championship team and they made the decision to give him more than he was worth. You didn't see other teams out there willing to hand Posey that contract, now did you?!

BBALL TIM's example was an exaggeration to make a point and you know it...

the market for any player is based on what teams are willing to pay. In this case the market for Posey turned out to be a 4 year deal at the MLE. Danny felt like the maket for him was lower and that IMO is why he lost him.

i do know that Bball was exaggerated to make his point. the problem is that his argument is based on the exaggeration not what Posey actually signed for....

the question that he posed was: where would you stop? what was the limit?

the fact is there was a limit. it was 4years at the MLE.  we have hard numbers on what it would have taken to sign Posey. So all exaggerating to make a point does in this situation is create a "strawman" argument.

nobody was saying that we should sign Pose to some unlimited contract. the argument is specifically related to what he actually signed for.

  Ainge didn't think the market for Posey was lower, he felt the value of Posey was lower. And it's not true that we have hard numbers on what it would have taken to sign Posey. Do you know for a fact that the Hornets wouldn't have paid more if we'd have offered 4 years?

  You're just calling my argument a strawman because you don't want to answer it. If you think Posey was worth $25M a year you think Ainge was crazy not to have signed Posey for a 4-5 year MLE. If you'd have given him the 4th year but not a 5th then you  draw the same line he did but at a slightly different spot.