Hornets Regret Signing Posey Already?

[TatteredOnMySleeve]

You could see Posey's defense starting to decline toward the end of last season. He played a lot of mind games and definitely was disruptive; but he has already lost a bit of his mobility.

ridicoulous statement...considering Posey actually got better the further along in the playoffs and was huge in the 2 biggest wins in this franchise in the last 20 years..
Who wasnt tired by the end of our season? they played more games than any team in the history of the NBA!!! KG was exhausted in the finals and still doesnt look quite back to from since..
Posey started out this year on fire, and was the reason the hornets won alot of games..he has since cooled off, maybe it has something to do with Byron the idiot Scott running his team to death in training camp?

[BballTim]

James Posey is what you call a "final piece". He is the guy you add to an elite team to push them over the top and get them a ring. He does the little things that you need someone to do if you want to get a ring. However, you need to have the proper core players as well. Your team must already be excellent for James Posey to make an important difference. The Hornets are not excellent; they are not elite. That's why Posey hasn't helped them. I would regret signing him to such a long deal too if I felt like my team wasn't good enough to compete for a ring.

excellent analysis of the value of a unique player like posey.  i believe he put the Celtics over the top last season. think about it - this Celtic team is not that gifted offensively ........ they can struggle to score at times ....... just think how easy points came to the Bird teams and even the Cowens' teams.

the current team's genius is their team defense, which to me is beautiful to watch. but they are missing a scoring punch off the bench ........ and i'm with Coach Bo - what Ainge was thinking worrying about 2011 is beyond me.

  Maybe Ainge was thinking that Posey's nearing the end of his usefulness and he's not worth the money over the next few years. And Posey was far from a scoring punch off the bench. He  scored 7 a game.

[winsomme]

James Posey is what you call a "final piece". He is the guy you add to an elite team to push them over the top and get them a ring. He does the little things that you need someone to do if you want to get a ring. However, you need to have the proper core players as well. Your team must already be excellent for James Posey to make an important difference. The Hornets are not excellent; they are not elite. That's why Posey hasn't helped them. I would regret signing him to such a long deal too if I felt like my team wasn't good enough to compete for a ring.

excellent analysis of the value of a unique player like posey.  i believe he put the Celtics over the top last season. think about it - this Celtic team is not that gifted offensively ........ they can struggle to score at times ....... just think how easy points came to the Bird teams and even the Cowens' teams.

the current team's genius is their team defense, which to me is beautiful to watch. but they are missing a scoring punch off the bench ........ and i'm with Coach Bo - what Ainge was thinking worrying about 2011 is beyond me.

  Maybe Ainge was thinking that Posey's nearing the end of his usefulness and he's not worth the money over the next few years.

or maybe he just misjudged the market on Pose (as with almost everybody else for that matter)...

i mean, why would he have targeted Pose so deep into FA and offered the full MLE for 3 years if he thought Pose's usefullness was in such a decline?

if money was the biggest issue, then why didn't he just pick up a guy like Barnes who signed for one year at 1.2 mil?

[cornbreadsmart]

if anyone has the cajones to admit he was wrong it's danny. i would love this.

[winsomme]

  I always thought the hysteria was on the side of all the hand-wringing and panicking all summer when Danny let Posey go. Weren't we supposed to finish well off last year's pace and have the big three play a ruinous amount of minutes during the regular season?

for me, the "wringing" was about not getting home court advantage in terms of the regular season and overall not having the best shot at winning another Title.

[EJPLAYA]

Of course it isn't a risk.

It's a bigger risk to pinch pennies the way Danny and Wyc did this summer, then throw a few of them away on people like Paddy O'Blount.

If Ainge is thinking more about 2011 than winning a title this year, he needs to move on. That's idiotic.

  Spending all that money on Posey would have been idiotic.

  Is there a limit to how much money Posey's worth? Would you pay him $10 million a year? $12 million? $15 million? At what point does it become sound budgetary philosophy? At what point does it cease to become pinching pennies?

  Car salesmen must love seeing you. I don't care how much it costs! I don't care if I'll be paying for it after it ceases to be useful! I just have to have it! Where do I sign?

Don't apologize for this statement BBALL TIM, even the car salesman part, you were 100% dead on with this comment. That's what these guys aren't understanding. You can't just pay someone whatever they are asking for just because the guy was a good part of the team. Your analogy is perfect. Getting that car even if you have to pay an affordable 300 dollars a month isn't the brightest idea when they tell you that you only have to make payments for 15 years! Sure the first year or so you are happy, but you are definitely going to regret it down the road. Just like we would have in years 4 and maybe even 3. Everyone on here complains about how Scal's salary somehow has handcuffed us from signing someone else, which really isn't true, but try doubling that and see what people are saying a few years down the road when we don't have all the big three and there is a legit star we want to sign and can't.... TP for your perfect analogy!

[winsomme]

Of course it isn't a risk.

It's a bigger risk to pinch pennies the way Danny and Wyc did this summer, then throw a few of them away on people like Paddy O'Blount.

If Ainge is thinking more about 2011 than winning a title this year, he needs to move on. That's idiotic.

  Spending all that money on Posey would have been idiotic.

  Is there a limit to how much money Posey's worth? Would you pay him $10 million a year? $12 million? $15 million? At what point does it become sound budgetary philosophy? At what point does it cease to become pinching pennies?

  Car salesmen must love seeing you. I don't care how much it costs! I don't care if I'll be paying for it after it ceases to be useful! I just have to have it! Where do I sign?

Don't apologize for this statement BBALL TIM, even the car salesman part, you were 100% dead on with this comment. That's what these guys aren't understanding. You can't just pay someone whatever they are asking for just because the guy was a good part of the team. Your analogy is perfect. Getting that car even if you have to pay an affordable 300 dollars a month isn't the brightest idea when they tell you that you only have to make payments for 15 years! Sure the first year or so you are happy, but you are definitely going to regret it down the road. Just like we would have in years 4 and maybe even 3. Everyone on here complains about how Scal's salary somehow has handcuffed us from signing someone else, which really isn't true, but try doubling that and see what people are saying a few years down the road when we don't have all the big three and there is a legit star we want to sign and can't.... TP for your perfect analogy!

who is arguing that we should have paid Pose "whatever he wanted"? Nobody is arguing that. I think that is why CB called it a "strawman".

plus, why would we be doubling Posey's salary in 2010 and 2011. We are currently under the luxury tax for those seasons, so the salaries that would be doubled are the ones added to push over that tax threshold.

[BballTim]

I've yet to see how a 6-7mil contract for a bench player is going to be a huge detriment to our team in 2011...

  That's because you don't have to sign the paychecks. Neither do people who refer to Wyc as cheap even though he has one of the highest payrolls in the league. Consider that if NO is under the luxury tax then Posey's costing them 1/2 what he would cost us and they still don't want to pay him.

So are you saying the Cs are going to be under the luxury tax in 2011 by not signing Pose?

Plus, in 2010 and 2011, Pose would be signed already, so it wouldn't be his salary that you'd be doubling, it would be the players that we signed that season that we would be doubling. Using the other logic would be like arguing that we are paying Scals 7 mil this year...

  No, it wouldn't be quite the same since we're over the tax when we sign Posey. Won't we stay over the tax after we sign him? That would mean we'd be doubling Posey's salary AND whoever we sign later on (assuming that there was room in the budget going forward to sign anyone else...)

Look, I don't think Wyc is cheap. I think they just misread the market on Posey. Does it make good business sense to not pay Pose more than he is worth on the open market? Sure.

I don't fault them for trying to get Posey for less years or money. they just got ambushed by NO at the 11th hour. My basic feeling is that they did not have a chance to match and would have if given that chance.

  There's no evidence of this. Ainge knew when they turned down his offer they wanted more years, he had a chance to offer that and he declined. There were reports all over predicting he'd get more than the 3 year deal Ainge offered.

  Think about it, though. In your scenario, why Ainge was so supremely confident that nobody would offer Posey that deal? The answer would have to be that he thought that it was so far over Posey's value that nobody would be stupid enough to pay it.

you know, the people who keep pushing this "not signing the paychecks" angle never take into consideration the cost of either not winning another Title or not even making it back to the Finals.

there is a huge financial incentive for this team to get another Title.

  And the people who keep pushing this "sign Posey no matter the cost to help us win a title" never take into consideration that having Posey doesn't guarantee a title or finals appearance and not having Posey doesn't guarantee no title or no finals appearance.

I, along with the rest of us, saw that Wyc interview and that IMO is the best evidence that the luxury tax is not the focus of this ownership.

  And yet Ainge has specifically said that any vet player we sign has to play for the vet min due to budgeting issues. File "Danny can spend whatever he wants" right next to "Wyc's cheap as hell because he only outspends 25 teams and not every single team".

[nickagneta]

I happen to think that Danny misjudged the entire off season market last year. He felt that since past champions like San Antonio, LA and Miami became desirable spots for free agents to want to go to that the same would happen with Boston. Problem is all those other places are warm weather environments and have a lot to offer in that regard to these players. Boston was a champion but it's a cold weather city.

Second, he should have had a firm offer and timetable set with Posey. One time take it or leave it boom right now. If Pose took it great, the team is intact. If not move on and restructure the bench to the best form of play that was conducive to winning for this team, that is good half court basketball, played efficiently on both ends with players of height down low.

But instead, Danny misjudged the market, and if the 2yr/$3.1 million figures that a couple of sites have out on the POB contract are correct, then Danny severely overpaid for someone that was in next to no demand. And he then misjudged the entire Posey demand. And after misplaying the Posey situation and letting it linger so long, he compounded the mistake for overpaying for Tony Allen. About the only thing he got right was the House signing.

I am also convinced that Danny felt he would be able to sign an older free agent big during the season or pick up a bought out vet. But again it looks as if he may have misjudged that too as the big man pool dried up(PJ Brown and Mourning retired, Mutombo went to Houston) and the quality of vets being bought out has been awful(Walker) or unattainable(McDyess).

Now Danny might be stuck with going into the post season with the team staying the way it is currently constructed and pray that the development of Rondo, Perk, and Davis this year will be enough to overcome the loss of Posey and allow this team to repeat.

As for the Posey situation in NO. I don't think the Hornets regret signing him at all. The Hornets aren't as good because Chandler and West having been playing nearly as well as last year and that they miss Pargo off the bench. besides when Posey was signed, no one was thinking that the economy in America was going to collapse and that the stock market was going to lose almost 40% of it's value and cause professional sports owners to take significant financial hits that would force them to change their salary management techniques.

[winsomme]

I happen to think that Danny misjudged the entire off season market last year. He felt that since past champions like San Antonio, LA and Miami became desirable spots for free agents to want to go to that the same would happen with Boston. Problem is all those other places are warm weather environments and have a lot to offer in that regard to these players. Boston was a champion but it's a cold weather city.

Second, he should have had a firm offer and timetable set with Posey. One time take it or leave it boom right now. If Pose took it great, the team is intact. If not move on and restructure the bench to the best form of play that was conducive to winning for this team, that is good half court basketball, played efficiently on both ends with players of height down low.

But instead, Danny misjudged the market, and if the 2yr/$3.1 million figures that a couple of sites have out on the POB contract are correct, then Danny severely overpaid for someone that was in next to no demand. And he then misjudged the entire Posey demand. And after misplaying the Posey situation and letting it linger so long, he compounded the mistake for overpaying for Tony Allen. About the only thing he got right was the House signing.

I am also convinced that Danny felt he would be able to sign an older free agent big during the season or pick up a bought out vet. But again it looks as if he may have misjudged that too as the big man pool dried up(PJ Brown and Mourning retired, Mutombo went to Houston) and the quality of vets being bought out has been awful(Walker) or unattainable(McDyess).

Now Danny might be stuck with going into the post season with the team staying the way it is currently constructed and pray that the development of Rondo, Perk, and Davis this year will be enough to overcome the loss of Posey and allow this team to repeat.

As for the Posey situation in NO. I don't think the Hornets regret signing him at all. The Hornets aren't as good because Chandler and West having been playing nearly as well as last year and that they miss Pargo off the bench. besides when Posey was signed, no one was thinking that the economy in America was going to collapse and that the stock market was going to lose almost 40% of it's value and cause professional sports owners to take significant financial hits that would force them to change their salary management techniques.

we've gone back and forth on this before, nick. but i do basically agree with you.

in retrospect DA should have set a timeline on Pose after which he would go in another direction.

the two problems with that are:

A: the other FAs out there were not very attractive.
B: the reasonably assessment was that nobody was going to give Pose 4 years at the Full MLE. So, thinking that Pose would end up taking the Cs 3yr/18 mil offered is IMO hard to really call a huge mistake...

on NO, i completely agree. that team is having lots of other problems. but if they actually just stay the course and people get healthy, I wouldn't want to play them in the playoffs.

[EJPLAYA]

Of course it isn't a risk.

It's a bigger risk to pinch pennies the way Danny and Wyc did this summer, then throw a few of them away on people like Paddy O'Blount.

If Ainge is thinking more about 2011 than winning a title this year, he needs to move on. That's idiotic.

  Spending all that money on Posey would have been idiotic.

  Is there a limit to how much money Posey's worth? Would you pay him $10 million a year? $12 million? $15 million? At what point does it become sound budgetary philosophy? At what point does it cease to become pinching pennies?

  Car salesmen must love seeing you. I don't care how much it costs! I don't care if I'll be paying for it after it ceases to be useful! I just have to have it! Where do I sign?

Don't apologize for this statement BBALL TIM, even the car salesman part, you were 100% dead on with this comment. That's what these guys aren't understanding. You can't just pay someone whatever they are asking for just because the guy was a good part of the team. Your analogy is perfect. Getting that car even if you have to pay an affordable 300 dollars a month isn't the brightest idea when they tell you that you only have to make payments for 15 years! Sure the first year or so you are happy, but you are definitely going to regret it down the road. Just like we would have in years 4 and maybe even 3. Everyone on here complains about how Scal's salary somehow has handcuffed us from signing someone else, which really isn't true, but try doubling that and see what people are saying a few years down the road when we don't have all the big three and there is a legit star we want to sign and can't.... TP for your perfect analogy!

who is arguing that we should have paid Pose "whatever he wanted"? Nobody is arguing that. I think that is why CB called it a "strawman".

plus, why would we be doubling Posey's salary in 2010 and 2011. We are currently under the luxury tax for those seasons, so the salaries that would be doubled are the ones added to push over that tax threshold.

The contract Posey got WAS "whatever he wanted" and we were smart enough not to do it and NO wasn't. I am happy for Posey that he got paid, because once again I really like the guy and know the difference he made in our team last year, however he chose money over another championship. He had a couple, so fine.

This is kind of an unsolvable discussion right now though because in 2010 and 2011 you will be able to be certain of the cost to NO and not until then. My opinion is they won't have a championship, and will have a harder time picking up that extra piece and instead will be losing Chris Paul. Then they REALLY will be regretting giving that old of a role player all that cash. I think DA made the right choice at the time, but only time will tell.

[winsomme]

The contract Posey got WAS "whatever he wanted" and we were smart enough not to do it and NO wasn't. I am happy for Posey that he got paid, because once again I really like the guy and know the difference he made in our team last year, however he chose money over another championship. He had a couple, so fine.

This is kind of an unsolvable discussion right now though because in 2010 and 2011 you will be able to be certain of the cost to NO and not until then. My opinion is they won't have a championship, and will have a harder time picking up that extra piece and instead will be losing Chris Paul. Then they REALLY will be regretting giving that old of a role player all that cash. I think DA made the right choice at the time, but only time will tell.

first off, BBall was talking 10-12 mil a year....as for Pose, who knows what exactly he wanted. certainly he would have taken more if offered.

the point i think most people are making here is that we should have at least matched what the market was for Pose and the market turned out to be 4 yrs full MLE.

as for being able to come to conclusions about this, i agree. we will have to wait and see down the road how it all plays out.

[EJPLAYA]

The contract Posey got WAS "whatever he wanted" and we were smart enough not to do it and NO wasn't. I am happy for Posey that he got paid, because once again I really like the guy and know the difference he made in our team last year, however he chose money over another championship. He had a couple, so fine.

This is kind of an unsolvable discussion right now though because in 2010 and 2011 you will be able to be certain of the cost to NO and not until then. My opinion is they won't have a championship, and will have a harder time picking up that extra piece and instead will be losing Chris Paul. Then they REALLY will be regretting giving that old of a role player all that cash. I think DA made the right choice at the time, but only time will tell.

first off, BBall was talking 10-12 mil a year....as for Pose, who knows what exactly he wanted. certainly he would have taken more if offered.

the point i think most people are making here is that we should have at least matched what the market was for Pose and the market turned out to be 4 yrs full MLE.

as for being able to come to conclusions about this, i agree. we will have to wait and see down the road how it all plays out.

One team overpaying doesn't make that "the market" for a guy. NO thought they were one guy away from a championship team and they made the decision to give him more than he was worth. You didn't see other teams out there willing to hand Posey that contract, now did you?!

BBALL TIM's example was an exaggeration to make a point and you know it...

[Roy Hobbs]

Um...  isn't there a difference between buying a car and winning an NBA championship?  You can buy a car any time you want.  The chance at an NBA championship is a rare thing, and teams should maximize their chances to win when given the opportunity.

Paying Posey another $7 million wasn't going to kill this team.  Barring that, the team could have reinvested that money wisely into upgrading the team at other positions.  The Celtics did neither, which is why people are upset.  The Celtics have a good chance at a championship, but not as good of a chance as they should.

[EJPLAYA]

Um...  isn't there a difference between buying a car and winning an NBA championship?  You can buy a car any time you want.  The chance at an NBA championship is a rare thing, and teams should maximize their chances to win when given the opportunity.

Paying Posey another $7 million wasn't going to kill this team.  Barring that, the team could have reinvested that money wisely into upgrading the team at other positions.  The Celtics did neither, which is why people are upset.  The Celtics have a good chance at a championship, but not as good of a chance as they should.

That's the interesting thing about an analogy Roy. They usually are about 2 different things otherwise it would be the same and not an analogy... 

You get his point, and it was a good one, however you are one hundred percent right that if the free agent market had worked out better and we weren't stuck with TA as the replacement signing we might look at this differently. In hindsight if we knew we would win a championship then I agree it may have made sense, however I am not sure he really would be the difference and a lock to put #18 up there. For a starter then yes I think you overpay even if you end up in a bind later. Not for an oldish role player though.