Of all the things for John Hollinger to be disappointed with this season...

[CelticsWhat35]

...how exactly can he justify Kevin Garnett making the top 10?


http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/columns/story?columnist=hollinger_john&page=BiggestDisappointments-081121

I think Hollinger knows where he can shove his PER.   

[fairweatherfan]

Well, I disagree that KG has been a major disappointment, but I agree with his major reason why: KG needs to post up more often and draw some fouls.  I know this same argument came up last year, but KG is a good scorer inside and a few more high-percentage shots a game will really free things up for our offense.  It's difficult to win a championship with your most talented big man shooting 80% jump shots.

Let's see how tonight goes though...I have the feeling he's gonna want to post up Big Al a time or two before the night's through.

[NoraG1]

...how exactly can he justify Kevin Garnett making the top 10?


http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/columns/story?columnist=hollinger_john&page=BiggestDisappointments-081121

I think Hollinger knows where he can shove his PER.   

I guess KG might continue to disappoint and be 'un-KG like' the guy is in his 14th season his production is not going to remain the same forever.

[ma11l]

Hollinger's a numbers guy that's all.  He knows that KG isn't a big disappointment it's just that his production is down.

[Hoyo de Monterrey]

John Hollinger just made my "top 10 disappointments of the 2008 season" list.

[TerreHaute]

To put KG on the list of 10 biggest disappointments for the season is pretty bad, but I don't believe he has played nearly as well as last season. Not just on offense, either. Defensive rotations have been far less consistent this year than last, even with the first team. Believe it or not, it looks to me like he and most of the other Celtics are flipping the on/off switch a lot more during games this year. They just don't seem to have same energy. There could be lots of reasons for this, I guess, but it is what I see.

[cornbreadsmart]

i can't stand anything by hollinger.  i hate stat gurus. per 48 minute crap. put down the calculator and enjoy the game with your own eyes/brain.

[moiso]

I actually love hollinger and his numbers insight.  The numbers don't lie.  They don't take reputation and homerism into account.  PER is a very useful tool in my opinion.  It early in the season and most likely KG's PER will improve somewhat.

[Fafnir]

I actually love hollinger and his numbers insight.  The numbers don't lie.  They don't take reputation and homerism into account.  PER is a very useful tool in my opinion.  It early in the season and most likely KG's PER will improve somewhat.

PER overates scoring. I like adjusted +/- better.

His PER will improve because his shooting has been poor. He'll get up to his career norms for eFG% and FT% and his PER will jump back up.

[Roy Hobbs]

Here's what Hollinger said:

Garnett remains just as important to Boston as he was last season in terms of his locker-room leadership, intensity and defensive mettle. That said, his production has been rather un-KG-like thus far.

He's become almost solely a jump shooter, with just 30 free-throw attempts in 12 games, and at 48.6 percent he's been a not-terribly-accurate one by his lofty standards -- most notably when he threw up an air ball from six feet in the first quarter against Detroit on Thursday night.

Most players would be ecstatic to have Garnett's 18.74 PER, but it's nearly a seven-point drop from his standard of a season ago; in fact, he hasn't plumbed these depths since he was a 20-year-old second-year pro in 1996-97.

I think that's fair.  KG *has* been taking more jump shots, and hitting them less frequently.  Last season, 73% of KG's shot attempts were jumpers, and he hit them at an eFG% of .472; the other 27% of shots were inside attempts, on which he shot 72.5%(!!).  This season, 80% of KG's shot attempts have been jumpers, and he has an eFG% of .436 on them (as opposed to 20% inside at 68.6%). 

In other words, so far this season KG is shooting more jump shots, and is shooting them less effectively than last year.  Additionally, his free throw rate has been cut nearly in half (from 5.2 FTs per 36 minutes to 2.7 FTs per 36 minutes).  Additionally, his assists are down significantly, and his turnovers are up. 

In other words, when you look at KG's offensive productivity, there's reason for some early season disappointment.  As Hollinger said, that doesn't negate his "locker-room leadership, intensity and defensive mettle".  However, it does show that there's a lot of room for improvement.