Tony is going to have his ups and downs like most players, but I think the real issue was with the PROBABILITY of Tony producing at his current level this season based off the preponderance of evidence we had...
While its in-arguable that TA has been inconsistent throughout his tenure, the nature of that inconsistency seems pretty clear - confidence...TA's game ebbs-and-flows with his belief in his success, when he's riding high, he is a force, when he is filled with doubt, he is terrible...
Now, TA had shown twice that post-injury, his confidence was extremely low and that he'd take a significant amount of time to recover. Last season he showed that physically he was 100% by season's end, but lacked confidence to consistently trust himself...
It was my belief, as well as some others, that getting the insurance of an extension - something TA admitted weighed on his mind - would help instill some of that confidence back into his game. I also surmised that the possibility for an expanded role, the fact that he had played will with more minutes, and the presence of young up-and-coming competition would further stoke his competitive nature and bring out the confident, competitive TA that plays his best bball...
So, I think it was reasonable to expect a solid probability of TA performing at a quality level based on his personality and past history...it wasn't a "slam dunk" but it seemed likely given how his performance has ebbed-and-flowed, not just because it did...