My 2008-2009 NBA Predictions

[CelticBalla32]

*Note: Some changes were made following the completion of my “30 Teams In 30 Days” feature, hence the slight differences in some teams’ records.

[SportsCapNative]

Nice, TP. I agree with most of those predictions. However, I would go out on a limb and say that Atlanta will enter higher than 8th seed this year. Actually, I wouldn't be surprised if they entered at 5 or 6, leaving Washington or possibly Philly to enter 8th. For many reasons, I have a feeling they're going to be a real threat in the East this year. And the Cavs will probably be better than the Pistons this year.

I agree with the Western Con. standings and the honor predictions (MVP, DPOY, etc.). Although, I do think the chances of both the Celts and Lakers ending up in the finals again are slim to none. The league in it's entirety looks stacked this year, so, the Finals are up for grabs.

[KevinGamble]

Awesome post!  Good looking, and getting me totally pumped up for Tuesday!  How awesome would it be to repeat against Kobe?  Couldn't dream of a better story!

[celticmaestro]

Nice CB32, I disagree with a few, here are my predictions.

East:

Boston 62-20
Orlando 55-27
Detroit 54-28
Philadelphia 50-32
Washington 45-37
Toronto 44-38
Miami 41-41
Milwaukee 40-42

West:

New Orleans 60-22
LA Lakers 58-24
Utah 57-25
San Antonio 55-27
Houston 52-30
Phoenix 51-31
Portland 48-34
Dallas 46-36

MVP - Chris Paul
MIP - Jameer Nelson
ROY - Greg Oden
6th - Ben Gordon
DPOY - Kevin Garnett
COY - Stan van Gundy
EOY - Ed Stefanski

Can't call the finals, my gut is telling me Celtics-Lakers again.

[Kwhit10]

I think the Heat and Pacers could slip into the 7th and 8th slots leaving Atlanta and Washington out.

[Steve Weinman]

Wow, CB32 - I think we're identical on the top 12 out West, as you'll see from today's Babble.  Pretty crazy stuff...although agreeing with me tends to be bad for one's predictive success rate. 

-sw

[Donoghus]

Nice work, CB32. 

No glaring disagreements with you in regards to conference standings.  High hopes for Artest with defensive player of the year, huh?

[CelticBalla32]

Thanks for the comments, guys.

I agree with the Western Con. standings and the honor predictions (MVP, DPOY, etc.). Although, I do think the chances of both the Celts and Lakers ending up in the finals again are slim to none. The league in it's entirety looks stacked this year, so, the Finals are up for grabs.

Yeah, I think me putting that down was more wishful thinking than anything, and also playing it safe. There's no way I, a die-hard Celtics fan, is going to leave Boston out; and I also don't want to be the lonely idiot who predicts LA to fall and is eventually proven wrong.

I do think that Boston/LA are still the top two teams in the league, though.

I think the Heat and Pacers could slip into the 7th and 8th slots leaving Atlanta and Washington out.

I agree. I really like Indiana for some reason, if Ford and Dunleavy can keep healthy. Ford is absolutely perfect for a Jim O'Brien system and should run that team to perfection.

Miami is a wild card. They have the tools to make the Eastern Conference playoffs, but those center/PG holes scare me, as does their relatively unproven and weak bench (especially with Jones out).

Wow, CB32 - I think we're identical on the top 12 out West, as you'll see from today's Babble.  Pretty crazy stuff...although agreeing with me tends to be bad for one's predictive success rate. 

-sw

Hmmm, maybe I'll pass these off as my rough draft predictions and then make my real ones after you make yours.

Nice work, CB32. 

No glaring disagreements with you in regards to conference standings.  High hopes for Artest with defensive player of the year, huh?

I just think that he's still that good when motivated. KG is still the best and most complete defensive player in the NBA, but if Houston has some success this year I could see Artest winning yet another Defensive Player of the Year trophy.

[cordobes]

Well done, TP. I have a hard time predicting which teams will make the last two play-off spots in the East - I can see 7 teams, those ranked 7th to 13th achieving the goal. It's going to be a dog-fight. And if JO can't play anymore, Toronto will be there as well.

Btw CB32, I'd like to commend your "30 teams in 30 days" work, although I have yet to read the last 3 reviews. Very enjoyable reading.

[Who]

Excellent work CetlicBalla32. Nice graphics

I'd put the top team in each conference higher in the W-L column. I think LA will be up around 65 wins and Boston close by. I think Detroit will be better in the W-L column too.

The 8th seed in the East could go to any of 6 teams so you're stuck between a rock and hard place there. This is how I see those teams:

• I was disappointed with the lack of progress Atlanta's top players showed in preseason, although they're definitely deeper, but without Smith/Horford/Williams taking steps forward I'm doubtful over their playoff hopes.
• Charlotte's postseason bid is going to depend on Sean May's health. They can't make the playoffs without Emeka Okafor getting more help in the paint. He has the worst help on the interior in the league, it's painful, I'd love to see Emeka get some help. Right now May isn't healthy so that's not a good sign. Also their perimeter play looks as bad as ever under Larry Brown (so far), no team play, all individuals. Because of all of these doubts I'm going to leave them outside of the playoffs and in 11th or 12th place
• I don't think Chicago can make it. They're still the same team they were last year. Offensively all the same problems are there, lack of post scoring, lack of shooting, lack of players that can score 18-20ppg a night, lack of players that set their teammates up at a high level. Defensively I look at their big men and small backcourt and I don't think they can get back to their former defensive glory. Derrick Rose will be very good but I doubt he's a franchise changer his first season out .... next season is a different story.
• Milwaukee is another, but their defense is awful and I'm not convinced they'll good enough offensively to make up for it.

Which brings us to the two teams I have the most confidence in at this point (Atlanta third)

• Miami because they have the best trio and are the only team with an MVP candidate on their roster. The rest of their roster is very weak though, you'd think Riley would have learned his lesson after the past two seasons? If their supporting cast was anywhere close to average they'd be a lock for the eight seed, but it's very poor so they're hit or miss.
• Indiana - the single most dependable team out of the six. Only missed the playoffs by one game last year and they've now upgraded Diener to a top 12 point in TJ Ford. That's a huge boost. TJ has never missed the playoffs either and I'm very reluctant to bet against him. Then add Jarrett Jack, Brandon Rush and Roy Hibbert as improvements over last season and you have a much improved squad. Indiana have 3 very good perimeter players in Dunleavy, Granger and Ford ... then a bunch of quality rebounders and decent-solid defenders at PF-C ... and then have a superb bench giving them one of the deepest teams in the league. This team will be around .500. It's just a question if one of the others, like Miami, that have more top tier talent to rise to the occasion.

[kw10]

Thanks, great work. TP!

Just a couple things, I don't see Ron Artest getting DPOY ever again.
And I think the Lakers will actually have a better REGULAR season record, but obviously still losing in the Finals.

I also see Cleveland having a slightly better record than Detroit this year.

[fairweatherfan]

Great list!  My picks, just so I have em down to check later:


East:

Boston 61-21
Detroit 54-28
Cleveland 54-28
Orlando 51-31
Philadelphia 49-33
Toronto 46-36
Washington 41-41
Atlanta 39-43


West:

LAL 60-22
New Orleans 58-24
Utah 55-27
Houston 52-30
San Antonio 51-31
Phoenix 50-32
Dallas 49-33
Portland 44-38 (wins tiebreak against Denver)


MVP - LeBron James
Improved - Jameer Nelson
Rookie - Greg Oden
6th - Barbosa (Ginobili if he comes back early and stays healthy)
Defense - Kevin Garnett
Coach - Nate McMillan
Executive - No clue

8 o'clock can't come soon enough!