Tony Allen, Under-appreciated?

[Vermont Green]

Danny Ainge said:

He’s shown over his career that with 20-plus minutes, he’s a very, very effective player on the plus-minus of his time on the court. I think that he plays well with minutes.

When I say this, I said, Hmmmmm.  But then I checked last years numbers and sure enough, TA's plus minus was pretty good, better even than Posey.http://www.nba.com/statistics/lenovo/lenovo_sort.jsp?pcomb=1&season=22007&split=9&team=Celtics
I know plus minus is only one measure and that it has a contextual element that is hard to filter but if I had been asked to guess, I would not have guessed that TA was +6.3 per 40 min and that Posey was +4.2 per 40 min.  Last year was actually a down year for him personally albeit on a very good team.

Is Tony going to be a big surprised this year?

[Roy Hobbs]

Well, Danny sort of has to spin things.  Keep in mind, he initially chose Posey over Tony, and was perfectly happy to let leave Tony leave as a free agent (for a relative pittance).  The fact that he's talking him up should surprise nobody.

[Chris]

Honestly, I think that quote is telling, and supports what I have been saying (selective reading, I know).  Tony Allen plays well WITH MINUTES.  The fact that Danny needed to add that "with minutes" part tells me that he was also trying to say that Tony has been less than effective when he is not playing major minutes.  That is a problem when you are on a team like this, and may not be getting 20 minutes every game.

[nickagneta]

I know Tony has been monstrous over the last two preseason games and people who support Tony are jumping all over this as proof that he is back to the 15 game period before his injury where he was putting up numbers like crazy, but let's take a reality check.

- He played huge minutes versus two of the worst teams in the league and played a majority of those minutes versus players that are role players on two of the worst teams in the league.

- Generally, he won't be getting the type of minutes that he usually needs to put up those numbers.

- He is still the same high-dribbling, bad-passing, over-dribbling, mediocre-shooting, out-of-control guy he has always been. In many, many of the drives he took over the last two games he forced a ton of stuff and had people wide open on drop downs when double teamed.

- He is still only 6'4" and if Doc thinks he is going to get away with playing Pruitt, House, and Tony Allen together for long stretches while maintaining a lead, he's crazy. Opponents will post either House with a big 2 or Allen with a big 3 and goodbye lead and hello foul trouble for the bench.

- He never comes back after an offseason with a new wrinkle in his game. He just rehabs his health and works on the stuff he does. Never does he come back a better dribbler, a better passer, with more range, a more consistent mid range game. Anything new, nothing. That to me is the sign of an unintelligent player.


I might be all wrong about Tony Allen and what he could mean for this team. I have never liked his game, probably never will. His game is steeped in his athleticism and lacks fundamentals and smarts. I hope I'm wrong and he somehow wins a Sixth Man Award for averaging 15 PPG off the bench this year. Hopefully his ability to take it to the hole will open up things for Pruitt and House on the outside and lead to a ton of offensive rebounds and points for POB, BBD, and Leon. I really do hope that.

But please don't jump all over me if I don't convert to a huge Tony Allen fan even if he does do well. The realities I listed above will always apply to him and I am just not a fan of those parts of his game. Sorry people, I just don't think he's that good and am glad he's on a two year contract because when his athleticism wanes, we know what will happen.

[dark_lord]

tony turnover drives me nuts.  he makes constant mental mistakes and has yet to learn to stay on his feet on defense.  he is athletic and is able to recover occasionally, but i feel he is overrated in this town as a defender.

he pounds the ball into the ground to hard, thus he looses control of it too easily.  the notion of him playing minutes as a point guard is laughable.

what he is good at is taking the ball to the rack, as well as drawing a foul.  he should never set up or attempt to run an offense.  i have said for some time, he should never dribble more than 4 times each time he touches the ball.  four dribbles would eliminate potential turnovers.  4 dribbles is enough to beat his defender and get to the hoop.

[Greg]

Honestly, I think that quote is telling, and supports what I have been saying (selective reading, I know).  Tony Allen plays well WITH MINUTES.  The fact that Danny needed to add that "with minutes" part tells me that he was also trying to say that Tony has been less than effective when he is not playing major minutes.  That is a problem when you are on a team like this, and may not be getting 20 minutes every game.

Exactly.  Summer league, preseason, rookie year, 06-07... all season where he got minutes.  Last year, as his minutes declined, his effectiveness declined as well.

Hopefully he can get more consistent minutes this season, and he can step into the 6th man role.

[Chris]

Honestly, I think that quote is telling, and supports what I have been saying (selective reading, I know).  Tony Allen plays well WITH MINUTES.  The fact that Danny needed to add that "with minutes" part tells me that he was also trying to say that Tony has been less than effective when he is not playing major minutes.  That is a problem when you are on a team like this, and may not be getting 20 minutes every game.

Exactly.  Summer league, preseason, rookie year, 06-07... all season where he got minutes.  Last year, as his minutes declined, his effectiveness declined as well.

Hopefully he can get more consistent minutes this season, and he can step into the 6th man role.

Not quite what I meant.  As a bench player, he has to learn to be effective in shorter minutes.  He needs to learn to be efficient without the ball in his hands.

This team needs a guy who can be effective whether he is playing 10 minutes or 30.  Until he can do that, he is going to struggle earning the extra minutes.

[shookones99]

- He never comes back after an offseason with a new wrinkle in his game. He just rehabs his health and works on the stuff he does. Never does he come back a better dribbler, a better passer, with more range, a more consistent mid range game. Anything new, nothing. That to me is the sign of an unintelligent player.

I dont really think it's fair to call him an unintelligent player for that reason.  He has had some devestating injuries in his career that didn't allow him to work on other aspects of his game.  He hasn't really had a full offseason where he has been healthy enough to work on the weaker parts of his game (such as his shooting and ball-handling).  If anything I think he should get props for putting in the work that he did in order to come back as healthy and explosive as he is now.

[billysan]

- He never comes back after an offseason with a new wrinkle in his game. He just rehabs his health and works on the stuff he does. Never does he come back a better dribbler, a better passer, with more range, a more consistent mid range game. Anything new, nothing. That to me is the sign of an unintelligent player.

I dont really think it's fair to call him an unintelligent player for that reason.  He has had some devestating injuries in his career that didn't allow him to work on other aspects of his game.  He hasn't really had a full offseason where he has been healthy enough to work on the weaker parts of his game (such as his shooting and ball-handling).  If anything I think he should get props for putting in the work that he did in order to come back as healthy and explosive as he is now.

I could replace the unintelligent comment with lacking good judgement.

The fact remains, while rehabbing well, Tony has not significantly improved any of the weaker aspects of his game as Nick pointed out. He still needs to work on his ball handling and shooting. The addition of a midrange game or 15 foot pullup jumper would be a huge improvement in Tony's game.

Call it what you like, Tony has chosen not to add to or improve the weapons in his arsenal by all accounts. That is a mistake that even many NBA rookies recognize and attempt to correct. Why doesnt Tony?

[cordobes]

He got a $5 million/2 years contract. That's a very fair deal for him, I think; no under-appreciation at all.

The "he produces given minutes" is a fallacy and Ainge is well aware of that. When playing more than 28 minutes per game last season, Toronto's Bargnani put on 19 points/6 rebounds/2 assists. Of course, the sample is only of 25 games. His season averages are 10/4/1. This happens with lots of players. Powe is a 15/8 guy when he plays more than 20mpg. Twenty one games though. The thing is that these players generally don't produce when given minutes, they are given minutes when they are producing. Coaches keep them on the floor when they are playing well. This is almost a rule for guys in their first years in the league. The ability to produce consistently every game (or almost every game), therefore playing big minutes every game, is what separates good players from so-so players. 

That said, in my view Tony is the kind of player whose style is better served when he can play on the ball, in the strongside. Doc's biggest challenge is to transform Allen in a better player off-the-ball. This is very important for the team coming the playoffs, when our most talented players are going to be on the floor for long minutes. It's not exactly a matter of being productive with minutes, I disagree with Chris here, but of being productive with less shot attempts, less touches, less dribble penetrations, etc. Let's hope he can do that, or we are basically screwed. As pointed before in this thread, taking (and making) dozens of contested shots in pre-season games is not indicative of what he can do in that role; although I think it's going to be a precious asset in the regular season.

He is still only 6'4" and if Doc thinks he is going to get away with playing Pruitt, House, and Tony Allen together for long stretches while maintaining a lead, he's crazy. Opponents will post either House with a big 2 or Allen with a big 3 and goodbye lead and hello foul trouble for the bench.

I'm going to go a little bit off-topic here. I don't know about that particular backcourt, that, has you said, is severely undersized. However, Doc is using a lot "2 guard front" offenses, so I wouldn't be surprised to see a combination of House and another point guard in the floor with some frequency. We're also running more 1-4 high (the post players at the elbow on each side of the lane) sets this pre-season, especially with mixed unities/2 unity on the floor, an initial positioning that disrupts the 2-3 zone. In my view, this clearly indicates Doc is preparing the team to face lots of zones and quasi-zones when he starts making substitutions, as well as increased ball pressure over House if he's our only pg on the floor. This is a by-product of the lack of long-range shooting in our bench (very much concentrated on the guards) adding to the fact that Rondo is a, by historical standards, a terrible shooting pg, in spite of his improvement. Last season, Doc was able to use some gimmicks, like playing Rondo as a de facto 5 in our offense, something possible because of Posey's combination of size and shooting. However, now we have Tony Allen to play at the wings and Leon Powe to play at the 4. Imagine both of them on the floor together with Rondo and a center/PF and it's not a very nice picture - teams will crowd the strongside like crazy and attack relentlessly the remaining starting wing, be him Pierce or Allen, who is precisely the guy you want with the ball on his hands.

I'm very glad we have an adaptive, creative and clever coach as Doc taking care of things; he's one of the few coaches in the NBA that makes me feel comfortable about this.

[shookones99]

- He never comes back after an offseason with a new wrinkle in his game. He just rehabs his health and works on the stuff he does. Never does he come back a better dribbler, a better passer, with more range, a more consistent mid range game. Anything new, nothing. That to me is the sign of an unintelligent player.

I dont really think it's fair to call him an unintelligent player for that reason.  He has had some devestating injuries in his career that didn't allow him to work on other aspects of his game.  He hasn't really had a full offseason where he has been healthy enough to work on the weaker parts of his game (such as his shooting and ball-handling).  If anything I think he should get props for putting in the work that he did in order to come back as healthy and explosive as he is now.

I could replace the unintelligent comment with lacking good judgement.

The fact remains, while rehabbing well, Tony has not significantly improved any of the weaker aspects of his game as Nick pointed out. He still needs to work on his ball handling and shooting. The addition of a midrange game or 15 foot pullup jumper would be a huge improvement in Tony's game.

Call it what you like, Tony has chosen not to add to or improve the weapons in his arsenal by all accounts. That is a mistake that even many NBA rookies recognize and attempt to correct. Why doesnt Tony?

I would say he has improved those things over the course of his career.  There is definitely still room for improvement but I just don't think he has ever really had a full offseason to dedicate to working on his shot and handles.  I wouldn't say he has chosen not to improve those weapons.  I bet if he had never gotten injured then he would  have a much improved jumper and ball-handling skills.  The amount of work that he put into rehabbing his knee would have gone a long way towards improving his weaknesses had he been able to focus 100% on them.

[SalmonAndMashedPotatoes]

I know Tony has been monstrous over the last two preseason games and people who support Tony are jumping all over this as proof that he is back to the 15 game period before his injury where he was putting up numbers like crazy, but let's take a reality check.

[..........]

- Generally, he won't be getting the type of minutes that he usually needs to put up those numbers.

- He is still the same high-dribbling, bad-passing, over-dribbling, mediocre-shooting, out-of-control guy he has always been. In many, many of the drives he took over the last two games he forced a ton of stuff and had people wide open on drop downs when double teamed.

[.........]

- He never comes back after an offseason with a new wrinkle in his game. He just rehabs his health and works on the stuff he does. Never does he come back a better dribbler, a better passer, with more range, a more consistent mid range game. Anything new, nothing. That to me is the sign of an unintelligent player.

Nick,

It's obvious you're a 'glass half-empty' kinda guy when it comes to Tony Allen, but I think you're making way too many assumptions to attempt to justify your pessimism.

First, I think it's pretty clear from listening to Doc and Danny, and from studying the makeup of this team, that Tony Allen is going to play a big role this season, probably to the tune of 20 plus minutes a night.  Tony is the only pure 2 coming off the bench, and if Doc is serious about limiting minutes for Ray and Paul, Tony is going to have plenty of time to get his game on.  And as Danny has noted, when Tony gets 20 plus minutes, he produces, end of discussion.  He's going to get minutes this season and put up numbers.

Second, you're being completely unfair about the supposed lack of improvement in Tony's game.  As others have noted, he's spent 2 of his 4 offseasons rehabbing major injuries.  That means he was in the gym every day, lifting and doing rehab exercises, but rarely if ever touching the basketball court.  It's pretty hard to improve when your health doesn't allow you to be on the court.  Second, I think it's pretty clear that Tony has improved certain aspects of his game, but that those aspects have been hidden because of the injuries Tony has suffered.  Specifically, I believe that his mid-range game, handle, and vision have noticeably improved since his rookie year.  His jump shot was terribly inconsistent last year because he the confidence in his knee varied from game to game.  Likewise, his handle was also inconsistent because of lingering concerns about his knee.  But, as history has shown, when his knee comes back and he regains his confidence, his jump shot and handle miraculously return as well.  Watch him next game: he's got a consistent release point on his jump shot and he can get pretty much anywhere he wants with the dribble (though he does tend to high-dribble from time to time, as you noted).  So, yes, he has improved, but often those improvements have been masked by injuries.

One last point: you are way out of line to equate supposed lack of improvement in the offseason with a supposed lack of intelligence on Tony's part.  First of all, plenty of supposedly 'intelligent' players add nothing to their games in the offseason: they're called role players.  They just work to refine those parts of their game that relate to the role they play.  Further, I can name one supposedly 'intelligent' player on the Celtics who has actually regressed every offseason he's been here: Brian Scalabrine.  Would you stoop to infer that Scal has a lack of intelligence? 

Bottom line: Tony has always produced very well when healthy and when given minutes.  He has both this year and he will produce.  End of discussion. 

I look forward to how the anti-Tony crowd chooses to minimize that production to fit into their worldview.

[wdleehi]

Until we see him play game after game where he will be playing his actual role this year, we have no clue.



We hope he looks good and is consistent.  But past history is against that. 



We do know that he can look good when he plays a lot of minutes and the ball is in his hands.  With the exceptions of blowouts, when is this going to happen in the season? 


He has to prove he can be productive most nights playing off the ball and not playing the bulk of the minutes. 



And there is no way for us to know how he will do until that situation arrives.  (which should be the begining of the regular season)

[billysan]

Until we see him play game after game where he will be playing his actual role this year, we have no clue.



We hope he looks good and is consistent.  But past history is against that. 



We do know that he can look good when he plays a lot of minutes and the ball is in his hands.  With the exceptions of blowouts, when is this going to happen in the season? 


He has to prove he can be productive most nights playing off the ball and not playing the bulk of the minutes. 



And there is no way for us to know how he will do until that situation arrives.  (which should be the begining of the regular season)

In summation, Tony Allen has shown he is capable of producing on the offensive end when he is allowed to be the man and given sufficient minutes.  We all know he is not going to be in that role on this team for the next few years. Tony's development has not included (to this point) the ability to produce when called upon from the bench.

He will be given that opportunity this year for a few games. If he doesnt or isnt able to take advantage, then the near decision to let him go to OKC becomes much more understandable.

[KJ33]

Until we see him play game after game where he will be playing his actual role this year, we have no clue.



We hope he looks good and is consistent.  But past history is against that. 



We do know that he can look good when he plays a lot of minutes and the ball is in his hands.  With the exceptions of blowouts, when is this going to happen in the season? 


He has to prove he can be productive most nights playing off the ball and not playing the bulk of the minutes. 



And there is no way for us to know how he will do until that situation arrives.  (which should be the begining of the regular season)

In summation, Tony Allen has shown he is capable of producing on the offensive end when he is allowed to be the man and given sufficient minutes.  We all know he is not going to be in that role on this team for the next few years. Tony's development has not included (to this point) the ability to produce when called upon from the bench.

He will be given that opportunity this year for a few games. If he doesnt or isnt able to take advantage, then the near decision to let him go to OKC becomes much more understandable.

But he is going to be that man this year, those who don't see this missed Danny's point.  He was indicating not just that Tony does produce with 20+ minutes, but that he will actually get 20+ minutes this year, therefore his positive outlook.  Doc is already on record as saying that he is looking to give PP and Ray more time off this year, TA is the perfect candidate to pick up the bulk of those extra minutes.  Therefore, you will rarely see Tony out there with all 3 of the Big 3, needing to hang on the weak side away from the ball and thus needing to learn how to play that way.  There may be situations where that is true, but the greater % of his minutes are going to come as the designated scorer of the second unit while most of the starters are out resting. 

So Tony will for sure get the 20+ minutes he needs to be effective AND he will get to be the man, at least for the minutes he plays.  One of the gigantic flaws of last years bench was having nobody to create offense, Posey and House were nothing more than spot up shooters who benefited from others creating their shots.  Doc can now sit Paul and Ray and let Tony be that guy with the second unit, so people who think what we are seeing is an aberration because his minutes and role are going to go down, don't really understand the way the Celtics plan on using him.