Bucking Conventional Wisdom

[Brickowski]

Let me make a couple of predictions that are contrary to the "conventional wisdom" I've been hearing in the media and reading on-line.

First, let me agree with a couple of things the pundits have been saying:

The Sixers will be stronger.
The Knicks will be stronger, if only because D'Antoni will have no qualms about putting fat Eddie and Z-bo on the bench and leaving them there.
San Antonio is still good.

Now let me disagree with a few things:

1. The Wizards are finished.  Talented as he is, Arenas has ripped the soul out of that team. If they had any sense they would trade him.
2. The Lakers are overrated.  Bynum will help, but they have no frontcourt off the bench. They have no one to defend the other team's best scorer other than Kobe.
3. New Orleans will win the West.
4. Portland will win 50+ games if Oden stays healthy.  Yes, he's that good, and scoring has nothing to do with it.
5. The Timberwolves will finish around .500.  You heard it here first.
6. Dallas will be a major disappointment.  Carlisle is just as much of a martinet as Avery Johnson. He and Kidd won't get along.
7. The first coach to be fired next year will be Lawrence Frank-- undeservedly.
8. Houston will self-destruct in the playoffs.
9. As Ilgauskas goes, so go the Cavaliers.  Instead of bolstering their backcourt, which was fine, they should have added frontcourt scoring.  Neither Wallace nor Varejao can score.
9. Detroit is in a death spiral.


 
 

[cordobes]

1. I don't think so, but I'm not into esoteric stuff. But the injuries are definitely worrying.
2. They have the same frontcourt that carried them to the NBA finals, minus Turiaf plus Bynum. That's a big improvement itself. They don't need more than minor contributions from minute-fillers like Powell and Mihm. 
3. Maybe. I think the Rockets, the Spurs and the Lakers have better play-offs teams.
4. I doubt it. Pryz is not that bad either. 
5. Only if Big Al learns to play defense, Foye learns to go left, Brewer gets some sort of offensive game and one of theirs backup big men drinks the youth elixir. And if they get a new coach. Love will deliver them a few more wins by himself, but not that many.
6. Carlisle is an intelligent man. What do you call a major disappointment? Missing the play-offs? 
7. Perhaps not and that sounds like conventional wisdom. I'm going with Karl, Theus or Woodson.
8. Why?
9. If Ilgauskas stays healthy, that won't be much of a problem. JJ Hickson will give them some offensive energy from the bench. They still have millions in expirings to address it, anyway.
10. I wouldn't go that far, but I'm skeptical about their chances.