Thought experiment: Pierce and Allen for LeBron

[drza44]

Once again, I've been hanging out on other boards and saw a topic that caught my eye.  The topic was started by someone questioning whether LeBron would win a title next to another superstar, but it is especially relevant on a Celts board in the wake of many debating whether Pierce's playoff performance puts him on par with the LeBrons and Kobes of the world.  The question:

If the Celtics last year had traded Paul Pierce and Ray Allen to the Cavs for Lebron James, what would have been the 3-year prognosis for both teams (assuming the rest of the team stays exactly the same)?

Celtics:
Starters - Rondo, Tony Allen (?), LeBron, KG, Perk
Bench - House, Posey, Powe, Baby, eventually Sam and PJ

Cavs:
Starters - West, Ray Allen, Pierce, Wallace, Big Z
Bench - Gibson, Wally, Varejao, Joe Smith

I saw this question raised on two different boards, and I was surprised (shocked, even) at the diversity of the responses that I saw on what I thought was a fairly easy question.  Several responses on the order of "not even close" to a win for the Cs due to lack of quality depth and outside shooting, then on the other extreme I've seen several responses that a LeBron/KG combo would be a dynasty regardless of those other potential weaknesses.

So, divorcing yourself from team loyalty, which team do you think would have made out better in that deal in the short term?  Do the Cs still win last year's title?  With Pierce in LeBron's role plus Allen moving back into a primary scoring role, are the Cavs better and more rounded after this deal?  Who would have been representing the East in the Finals last year, and who would be the favorites this year?

[Birdbrain]

Cavs would get exponentially better in the short term.

The C's might have still won it but, they would be sorely lacking outside shooting.  And any injury to KG or Lebron would have been the deathblow.  They wouldn't have even made it out of the East.

Of course this hypothetical but, there is probably less than a 0% chance of Cleveland doing this deal.  I do believe at this point in LJ's and Pierce's careers that Paul can do more things on the court to be successful.

[wdleehi]

If the Celtics could pull off that trade, then yes.


I like Pierce.  I like Allen.



But Lebron is a force.  He is still the future of this league.  


This is how it could work number wise.

http://games.espn.go.com/nba/features/traderesult?players=9~662~1021~1966~831~885&teams=5~5~5~2~2~2&te=&cash=






But there is almost no chance Cleveland would make such a trade.

[Redz]

If the Celtics could pull off that trade, then yes.


I like Pierce.  I like Allen.



But Lebron is a force.  He is still the future of this league.  


This is how it could work number wise.

http://games.espn.go.com/nba/features/traderesult?players=9~662~1021~1966~831~885&teams=5~5~5~2~2~2&te=&cash=






But there is almost no chance Cleveland would make such a trade.

It just pains to me see how much money Wally is making.  Talent wise relative to the like salaried guys in the league it is insane.  Just nuts.

Anyhow...Emotions aside you'd have to do that deal if you were the Celtics.

[screwedupmaniac]

GAH! don't do this to my brain! i don't want to...but at the same time, i would totally do that trade. lebron's a freak, and he's so young. and the very thought on KG and lebron on the same team...MAN!

[Roy Hobbs]

If the Celtics last year had traded Paul Pierce and Ray Allen to the Cavs for Lebron James, what would have been the 3-year prognosis for both teams (assuming the rest of the team stays exactly the same)?
...
So, divorcing yourself from team loyalty, which team do you think would have made out better in that deal in the short term?

In the short term?  Well, the team won 66 games and a championship last year, so I certainly don't think it would have made the Celtics results appreciably better.

In terms of roster construction last year, I don't think it would have made either team better than the actual 2007-08 team each field.  The Celtics needed Paul's leadership, defense, and toughness (as well as his deference to others) and Ray's outside shooting; the Cavs needed one guy to totally dominate all aspects of the game.  The rest of the roster revolved around those three guys being there, so again, in the immediate short term, it wouldn't have made sense for either club.

Going forward, it's a deal the Celts would and should do.  In terms of last season, though (which is how the question is phrased) I'm quite happy with the championship.

[Who]

Short Term

- Same Same Just Different. Both teams look different but they stay exactly were they were prior to the trade. Cavs would have been the second best team in the East and a lot more successful in the regular season. Celtics would still be the best team in the East and won the Championship.

Long Term

- Huge gains for Celtics. LeBron gives his team the possibility to contend year in year out for the next dozen years, you just need to give him a solid supporting cast. Give him a good-great supporting cast and you have an opportunity for a dynasty.

Edit: I missed the three year prognosis line the first time around. I was thinking short term as only one year. For three years I think the trade would overwhelming favour Boston. Even if the performance were equal (and I'd rather have LeBron), the cap flexibility swings it (winner of trade) clearly to whatever team LeBron is on.

[nickagneta]

Interesting question.

Assuming the trade did go down, I think you then have to assume that the additions later in the year would not have been Sam and PJ for the Celtics as the real need would have been at outside shooting and specifically at the 2.

Also, does Cleveland make the trade to bring in Wally and West if they then have two excellent ball handlers the likes of Paul and Ray? I don't know.

Obviously, as Roy stated, the Celtics couldn't have done better than last year's championship. But, they very well could have suffered the same fate Cleveland did in the playoffs of having someone play tight man defense on LeBron and pack it in inside with a lot of help defense and they could have lost. Sounds like something Detroit would have been able to do quite well. Without the extra shooters or if House and Posey were cold, Celtics may not have gotten to the Finals.

Long term, assuming LeBron would resign to stay in a big market city like Boston, it would of course have been a steal for Boston and may well have generated more championships eventually as KG and LeBron are a building block few teams could match going forward.

Last thing. Do you think LeBron showing up at a Red Sox game wearing Yankee gear would have gone over well in this city if he was playing for the Celtics?

[Edgar]

I love our team as is but yes.

With one condition

If they give us Delonte West BACK!!! Hes My Boy
Se any thread can be converted into a DW thread !! YES!!


Pierce Allen  KG   Sicko
LeBron  KG    DW   Sicko Wacko

[drza44]

If the Celtics last year had traded Paul Pierce and Ray Allen to the Cavs for Lebron James, what would have been the 3-year prognosis for both teams (assuming the rest of the team stays exactly the same)?
...
So, divorcing yourself from team loyalty, which team do you think would have made out better in that deal in the short term?

In the short term?  Well, the team won 66 games and a championship last year, so I certainly don't think it would have made the Celtics results appreciably better.

In terms of roster construction last year, I don't think it would have made either team better than the actual 2007-08 team each field.  The Celtics needed Paul's leadership, defense, and toughness (as well as his deference to others) and Ray's outside shooting; the Cavs needed one guy to totally dominate all aspects of the game.  The rest of the roster revolved around those three guys being there, so again, in the immediate short term, it wouldn't have made sense for either club.

Going forward, it's a deal the Celts would and should do.  In terms of last season, though (which is how the question is phrased) I'm quite happy with the championship.

Well, the question is actually phrased for a 3-year period beginning last year, not just last year.  That's what I meant by "short term".

My opinion is that a team led by LeBron and KG would be utterly ridiculous.  LeBron provides all of the leadership, defense and toughness that Pierce brings to the table while also improving on the scoring, passing, and floor generalship portions of the game.   In recent years I can only recall two players leading extremely poor supporting casts to 50+ win seasons, and those two players are LeBron and KG.  LeBron is still young enough to have the energy to provide the daily heavy lifting through the grind of the year (another area that Pierce helped fill for the Cs last year, that LeBron would IMO do better), so I wouldn't be surprised if the Cs would have actually improved on their 66 wins last season.  And I certainly don't think they would have had as much trouble in the the playoffs, as a LeBron/Posey/Tony rotation negates the size/athleticism advantage on the wings that the Hawks used to keep things close; I think the Cs would have plowed through the Cavs in much fewer than 7 games (assuming even that the Cavs would have even been there in the second round); and we've seen what LeBron has done to the Pistons the last two seasons and what KG did to the Pistons in last season's ECF.  On the whole, I don't see them having trouble making it to the Finals, where LeBron has a history of owning Kobe's teams even more than Pierce does.

Neither KG nor LeBron have ever played with an offensive force like the other that would open up the floor and prevent them from getting doubled ever (last season Garnett was the one that was doubled more often than Pierce or Allen, and can you imagine how the defense the Cs played against LeBron last year would have broken down with KG on his side instead of Ben Wallace).  LeBron's better ball-handling would allow him and KG to play 2-man/pick-and-roll more effectively than Pierce and KG, and with LeBron's ridiculous athleticism/driving ability and KG's highly efficient scoring (especially when open) I don't see any way a defense could respond to that.  And I would imagine that House and Posey (and eventually Sam) would have been utilized as zone busters to keep opposing teams from packing the middle.  Plus, KG is a pretty high-percentage shooter out to about 20 feet as well.

And defensively, I think the Cs would have been even better.  IMO the most important parts of the defense last year were KG (the leader), Rondo (the disruptor), and Perk (helping anchor the paint) with Pierce and Allen both doing a great job of filling their roles of staying up on their man and funneling them to the help.  But this is another place where LeBron duplicates all of Pierce's strengths, then betters them.  And with Posey and Tony Allen getting many of the minutes that Ray played, that improves the perimeter defense even more. 

All told, I think the Cs would be scarily good if built around LeBron and KG.  I think the current real-life team is a favorite to win the title each year in that 3-year stretch (and they already have one in the books), so it is hard to improve much on that.  But with LeBron I think they'd be even better, and I have trouble seeing any way outside of injury that this team wouldn't be a historic-level dynasty.

[Roy Hobbs]

LeBron provides all of the leadership, defense and toughness that Pierce brings to the table while also improving on the scoring, passing, and floor generalship portions of the game.

See, I'm just not sure that I buy that.  Pierce plays better defense, and I wonder if Lebron could have shut down Kobe to the extent that Paul did.  How would he have handled deferring to other players at times?  I'm not sure that he's matured enough as a player to lead like Paul did last year.  Throw is the fact that we'd be missing Ray Allen, and I don't think it's conclusive *at all* that we'd be better last year, or over the next two years.

Analyzing this over the defined time frame of last year (when we already know the results) and the next two years, and assuming all other things to be equal, I wouldn't make the trade.  Three stars is better than two, and one guaranteed championship is better than a hypothetical one.

Of course, as I said, going forward you make the trade, because Lebron alone is enough to keep any team in contention for the next decade.

And defensively, I think the Cs would have been even better.  IMO the most important parts of the defense last year were KG (the leader), Rondo (the disruptor), and Perk (helping anchor the paint) with Pierce and Allen both doing a great job of filling their roles of staying up on their man and funneling them to the help.  But this is another place where LeBron duplicates all of Pierce's strengths, then betters them.

If you're saying that Lebron is a better defender than Pierce, and would have played better defense in the playoffs, I think you're way off base.  I find it hard to imagine our defense improving last year under any circumstances (both Paul's and Ray's defensive numbers were tremendous), and I certainly don't see it improving with Lebron James.  Lebron has improved his defense, but he's got a long ways to go before being considered good.

I'm a huge Lebron fan, but there's nothing wrong with admitting that Paul Pierce does some things better than him.

[Edgar]

Neither KG nor LeBron have ever played with an offensive force like the other that would open up the floor and prevent them from getting doubled ever (last season Garnett was the one that was doubled more often than Pierce or Allen

I have to disagree .
Paul is just as good as Bron or at least as close as bron as youre going to get in this world
And from games i watch  , like 90 last year, Pierce was doubled more.

[Goldstar88]

I would not want to see lebron in Green. Offensively hes not a very good shooter. He rarely hits three's, and is avg from the free throw line. Hes a good passer/rebounder but is not clutch. Im not a big fan of his game, but I will say that he is the best player in the NBA in getting to the rim.I would not make this trade.

[Emperor Young]

Why do this trade? Lebron will leave to NJ(Brooklyn)

[Redz]

Why do this trade? Lebron will leave to NJ(Brooklyn)

So we could get mad at him for wearing a Yankees hat