'08 Expiring Contracts and Potential Stars on the Block

[Vicirus]

I had a few hours of spare time today so I put together a list of teams that would have in excess of $9 million in expiring contracts next season.

Atlanta:

Tyronn Lue            3.50M

Lorenzen Wright           3.24M

Anthony Johnson           2.86M

Boston:

Ratliff                    11.66M

Charlotte:

Brevin Knight      4.20M team option

Primoz Brezec      2.75M player option

Othella Harrington   2.38M

Jake Voskuhl      2.05M

Detroit:

McDyess              6.37M

Lindsey Hunter           2.25M

Miami:

Jason Williams           8.94M

Michael Doleac           3.12M player option

Mourning            2.76M

Goldenstate:

Jasikevicius      4.00M

Pietrus               3.50M

Cabarkapa       3.00M

LA Clippers:

Cassell               6.15M

Rebraca              3.48M

Aaron Williams           1.75M

LA Lakers:

Kwame Brown           9.08M

Maurice Evans           1.50M

Minnesota:

Ricky Davis      6.82M

Eddie Griffin      2.90M

Phoenix:

Kurt Thomas      8.09M

Piatkowski      1.22M

San Antonio:

Brent Barry      5.55M

Bruce Bowen      4.13M

Robert Horry      3.63M

Fransisco Elson           3.00M

Here is a list of teams with potential stars/impact players that could be targeted with those contracts.

Team       Player            Yrs Left          Avg. Salary

Boston           Pierce                4                  19.0M

NJ                Kidd                2                  20.0M

Indiana     O’Neal               3                   21.5M

Wizards    Antawn Jamison   1           16.4M

Memphis    Pau Gasol          4               15.75M

Minnesota Kevin Garnett      2            23.0M

Portland   Zach Randolph      4            14.5M

Seattle    Ray Allen                3                 17.5M

Utah      Andrei Kirilenko    4            15.75M

GS         Baron Davis          2            16.75M

Jason Richardson     4            12.75M

LAC        Elton Brand         2            15.50M

Sam Cassell         1            6.15M

Corey Maggette       2            8.10M

Phoenix     Amare Stoudemire 4            15.15M

Shawn Marion          2            16.75M

SAC       Mike Bibby          2                14.00M

Ron Artest          2                8.13M

Now what I can gather from this list is that Theo Ratliff's contract is perhaps the most valuable of any in the entire NBA next season. Since it is so large, and paid by insurance (we assume) it will be the most cuveted by teams looking to move players in that last group. Kwame Brown's contract would most likely be the second most valuable, and after that Kurt Thomas (Phoenix is well run isn't it?), but after those there is a large drop off because most teams would have to put a package of three or four players together. There are teams out there with better young talent, as well as with veteran players with better "value" contracts (ie Ricky Davis, Cassell), but no one can offer a contract like Ratliff's along with young, cheap players at multiple positions like the Celtics can. We can offer PGs (West-Telfair-Rondo), SGs (TA-West), SFs (GG-Gomes), PFs (Gomes-Al), or Cs (Perkins-Al). We also have all our draft picks, including a very valuable future first (Minni '09 or later).

Basically, if any major trades go down next year, the Celtics will have the potential to be in the middle of it. Teams will look to the Celtics like they did the Bulls this year. Fortunately, the Bulls won't have any large contracts to offer next year. So don't freak out about not landing Gasol or AI, we will be able to get an impact veteran this summer or before next years trade deadline at the latest.

P.S. I gathered this information from hoopshype.com, so it should be pretty accurate. There are a few players that have player options that may or may not be exercised (ie Artest, Brand, Maggette, or KG). If anyone wants me to add any other teams/players, post them and I'll edit the list. It may be a good idea to pin this as a future reference for people dreaming up trades.

[Edgar]

We can use Bowen 

[ManUp]

Which one of the expiring contracts do you think could be had for Wally and a future pick?

[Roy Hobbs]

Interesting list; thanks for posting it. 

I agree with your assessment on Ratliff's contract; it has the potential to be a huge asset.  Other teams that I can see being very active with their contracts are the Lakers (who you mentioned) and the Heat.

The team that isn't on that list is Chicago.  I wonder what their flexibility is going to be in terms of adding additional players.  Yes, they'll be under the cap, but Nocioni is a free agent, and Deng and Gordon are going to need extensions.  I think Chicago blew it's chance to be a true contender by 1) signing Ben Wallace, and 2) not trading for Gasol.

[Vicirus]

Which one of the expiring contracts do you think could be had for Wally and a future pick?

I think that really depends on whether Wally plays again this year, along with what teams do this summer. If he returns and finishes the year well with a PER around 17, he could be a good asset to another team. He'll also only have 2 years left on his deal, so his contract becomes exponentially more valuable as the '08 season goes on.

I think the best case scenario for the Celtics is that he gets on the court for the last 30 games, plays well, then does the same next year and we can dump him at the '08 trade deadline. In that case, teams would be offering us an expiring with a draft pick. I could see maybe the Lakers going for Kwame, Evans, and a first if they don't resign Walton or need a shooter at next years deadline. A lot of teams could be in that same boat.

[jimmyt]

nice work here

say the celtics get the number 2 pick and draft Durant...
Jermaine O'Neil wants out of Indy everybody knows it he has basically said he wants out any way he can. unfortunatly for him hes a pretty timid guy and probably almost feels bad demanding a trade. Anyways, I think the Celtics should pursue him in the offseason. We could easily package a deal that Indy would take for him.

Rondo, Pierce, Durant, Jefferson, O'Neil

that would be an awesome starting lineup.

I'm not sure what they would ask for O'Neil but id say O'Neil for Minnesotas first rounder, Theo, Delonte West, Tony Allen, Ryan Gomes... I would try to make it so we dont have to give up Gerald or Al obviously, but if we could somehow do a trade like this id do it easily

[Vicirus]

The team that isn't on that list is Chicago.  I wonder what their flexibility is going to be in terms of adding additional players.  Yes, they'll be under the cap, but Nocioni is a free agent, and Deng and Gordon are going to need extensions.  I think Chicago blew it's chance to be a true contender by 1) signing Ben Wallace, and 2) not trading for Gasol.

I expect Chicago to extend Nocioni and that will most likely eat up their cap space. I could see him getting 8-10M a year. If the Bulls won't give it to him, I'm sure some other team will. The good thing about doing that for Chicago is that it gives them a large contract to make trades with. It would be a 5 year deal, but him coupled with say Gordon would be the same as Brown, Gordon, and Nocioni this year. They could potentially still be players for a Gasol/KG caliber player. Thats before even getting into possible extensions for Gordon, Deng or Duhon.

One big deal that I had been eyeing was sending KG to Chicago, while also shedding Hassel, James, and Jaric. I won't get into specifics, but it basically would've left Chicago with Hinrich, Duhon, Nocioni, KG and Wallace. Minnesota would've wound up with a starting five of Foye/Gordon/Deng/Tyrus/Blount.

I think the biggest mistake made at the deadline was McHale not shedding some of those horrible contracts today (Nazr-Jaric, James-Sura). I did hear something about AL Jefferson for KG, but didn't catch all of it. I think both Minnesota and the Bulls could have made out well today, but didn't.

[kuberski]

Which one of the expiring contracts do you think could be had for Wally and a future pick?

That's for the year after next.

It will be valuable.  You can stomach Wally's deal next year because he'll likely be one of their top 5 players but they year after that he'll be prime moving material.

[Vicirus]

I'm not sure what they would ask for O'Neil but id say O'Neil for Minnesotas first rounder, Theo, Delonte West, Tony Allen, Ryan Gomes... I would try to make it so we dont have to give up Gerald or Al obviously, but if we could somehow do a trade like this id do it easily

The main problem with Indiana is that inorder for them to truely rebuild, which would be the point of moving O'Neal in the first place, they need to somehow rid themselves of Dunleavy, Murphy, and even Daniels and Tinsley. I could see them forcing the acquiring team to take one or more of those players while also giving up picks/prospects. I think a trade with the Celtics would go something like this:

Indiana acquires:
Gerald Green
Delonte West
Kendrick Perkins
Theo Ratliff
Wally Szczerbiak
Minnesota's future pick

Boston acquires:
Jermaine O'Neal
Mike Dunleavy
Jamaal Tinsley

This is a quick and dirty trade I came up with, but it actually does work. I know your specific fondness for GG so I can't see you doing it. I'm not sure anyone really would want to do the above trade regardless though. Taking Dunleavy and Tinsley just isn't worth it.

[Cman]

Vicirus,

First off, a tommy point to you for starting this topic.  I was thinking of doing something like this after the trade deadline.  BTW, it is amazing there were no bigger deals than Fred Jones for Juan Dixon... what gives?

Second, I think a logical starting place is to look at the list of teams with star players and think about which teams will need to enter rebuilding mode, which you have done, but also think more about the current young players on those teams who will need to be extended.  A couple people raised Chicago -- true, Chi will need to extend Noc, Deng, etc... 

Along these lines, one team that really sticks out to me on the list is Golden State Warriors.  Their salary is already at $61M next year, and that is before they even think about extending Pietrus, Biedrins, Ellis, let alone trying to keep Matt Barnes (btw, he will probably walk for nothing, when they could have easily traded him for a 2nd rounder at the deadline).  Add to the fact that GSW will probably miss the playoffs again.... and I think that you will see a big shakeup with them in the offseason.  My guess is they will try to package Baron with one of their bigger contracts (J-Rich or Adonal Foyle) for an expiring contract and draft pick.

In any case, I like the possibilities that the Celtics have.  I could see a Theo + pick(s) + players for JO/Pau/KG, and am excited about any of those guys paired with Big Al and PP.

[Scotty]

Which one of the expiring contracts do you think could be had for Wally and a future pick?

I think that really depends on whether Wally plays again this year, along with what teams do this summer. If he returns and finishes the year well with a PER around 17, he could be a good asset to another team. He'll also only have 2 years left on his deal, so his contract becomes exponentially more valuable as the '08 season goes on.

I think the best case scenario for the Celtics is that he gets on the court for the last 30 games, plays well, then does the same next year and we can dump him at the '08 trade deadline. In that case, teams would be offering us an expiring with a draft pick. I could see maybe the Lakers going for Kwame, Evans, and a first if they don't resign Walton or need a shooter at next years deadline. A lot of teams could be in that same boat.

If the other team is giving up the expirering deal and they're not getting a player whose not an overpaid hack back, they're getting the pick.  

Wally for contracts won't happen.  Wally and a pick for Contracts might.

[Vicirus]

Wally for contracts won't happen.  Wally and a pick for Contracts might.

I think you may have missed my point. I think if Wally were to get on the court for the last part of this season and be productive, he goes from "overpaid hack" to "overpaid player with limitations." Then if he were to be totally healthy for the entire first half of '08, put up a PER around his career avg of 17, and show that he is a capable second scoring option once again, he would have value to a contending team.

You also have to consider that his contract would be just as valuable to an acquiring team as Ratliffs is at this exact moment. Whether Ratliff gets on the court next year or not, he is an extremely valuable player. The same would go for Wally in that last season. I think that most teams would agree that 30+ games of a healthy Wally Szczerbiak is worth an expiring contract and a late first round pick. He could be the difference between a second round exit and a run to the finals. Again, the key here is that when he steps back on the court for the Celtics he has to be healthy and productive up until next years deadline. That's how we get a draft pick instead of giving up one. I do agree that if he never gets healthy, we would be the ones giving up the pick.

[Brickowski]

So you didn't put Pierce on your list of potential stars on the block?

I believe that he will ask for a trade after the team gets off to a slow start next season, which it will if Rivers is still the coach. 

[Vicirus]

Thanks for the appreciation Cman.

I think a logical starting place is to look at the list of teams with star players and think about which teams will need to enter rebuilding mode, which you have done, but also think more about the current young players on those teams who will need to be extended.

Good thought there.

One of the reasons I listed Baron Davis and Jason Richardson as being available is that I did take that into consideration somewhat. I know Richardson was shopped at the deadline, but Baron is someone who would be moved in order to resign those young guys. I think the Bulls, Charlotte, and Atlanta are also teams that may be faced with the same problems eventually.

I could start another catagory like: Teams with Young Players in line for Extensions. Maybe that would work? If anyone wants to help me out, just submit a team, the young players, and the years left on their deal and I will add them. Maybe a guess at what type of extention they'd get too. It'd be something to take our mind off this constant losing.

[Vicirus]

So you didn't put Pierce on your list of potential stars on the block?

I believe that he will ask for a trade after the team gets off to a slow start next season, which it will if Rivers is still the coach. 

Thanks. I added him, although I'm pointing any negative comments about it your way.