Author Topic: Why Are Boston Fans Obsessed with Young Players?  (Read 9168 times)

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Re: Why Are Boston Fans Obsessed with Young Players?
« Reply #15 on: July 30, 2008, 10:48:22 AM »

Offline guava_wrench

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Because people are poor at statistics and expect best case scenarios to end up reality. This happens among some fans of all teams.

You can see this poor thinking among those who try to blame people for not developing Gerald and fans of teams who want to trade their player picked #5 one year for the #10 pick the next year when they see the reality of their earlier pick's ceiling.

Re: Why Are Boston Fans Obsessed with Young Players?
« Reply #16 on: July 30, 2008, 11:38:43 AM »

Offline jay_jay54

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You missed several threads, then.
I agree with you 100%,there were some posts,that sounded like it was a relief or we are better off now without Posey.I couldn't and still don't understand it.

Re: Why Are Boston Fans Obsessed with Young Players?
« Reply #17 on: July 30, 2008, 12:03:49 PM »

Offline crownsy

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Reading the Manny to Dodgers thread was just the straw that broke the camel's back. Fans posting that Matt Kemp and some other prospects I've never heard of would be appropriate replacements for Manny.

Another thread regarding the Tejada to Sox rumor included a post by a fan saying something similar like "oh Tejada is old..why would we want him?"
In other words, because Tejada isn't young with potential, the fan trashed Tejada.

Are you kidding me?  People, just because someone is young with potential doesn't make them a great player.

My five year old niece is young and has potential..doesn't mean she's going to be a great sports player.

I read alot of other threads on this site (and other websites) and I just scratch my head. Alot of times I get the feeling that most Boston sport fans care moe about having a PG-13 sports team than a team that wins.

TP for an excellent topic, Gpap. Relatively new to this board, but the fascination with unproven and unaccomplished youth isn't unique to this board at all. It's on EVERY Celtics board out there. There's one - Celtic Nation - where you can still get into an argument about whether "all our promising youth" should have been dealt for Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen. Unbelievable.

The Celtics developed one player with who can accurately be characterized with great potential - Al Jefferson, although he can't defend a chair right now. They grew a couple of players who will be solid NBA role players - West and Gomes.

Beyond that ... nothing. I think you've seen the phenomenon in the hyperbole surrounding Tony Allen - Roy Hobbs' description of him as a "savant" is CB HOF material - and the scramble for excuses to defend the signing of Patrick O'Bryant, a massive college underachiever who couldn't make a team that doesn't require anyone to play defense.

Danny appears to be a card-carrying member of the club, and right now his obsession scares me to death - because our bench looks like the bare late 1980s benches that accelerated the minutes - and thus the decline - of Bird and McHale.

The danger in this approach falls when you begin believing that you're such an astute judge of "potential" that you can start sweeping out proven veterans and replacing them with the soup du jour off the scrap heap, ostensibly to save money. It's a very dangerous game.

its with every board of every sport. not to plug our hated rivals, but head over to lakersground, they have a ton of threads on thier new rookies/younger players. also, if you want to see a fan base die a little in side, read the game 6 and game 4 game threads. thier epic.

(i check them once a day, just to see if they have any "OMG CELTICS WON CAUSE LEAGUE HATES US!!! threads up, those are always good for a laugh. been doing it ever since roy pointed me over there during the playoffs for one of the kookier rants.)

Young players are fun to follow, thier like books you haven't read yet. I love our vets, but i know what there going to bring me, these new kids, i have zero idea, it could be either walker, giddens, powe, davis, what have you will go on to hall of fame careers, it could be that they'll flame out.

Either way, its fun to watch and speculate about.

as to the, several threads about how were better off without posey, those mostly came up after he left, and i think of those like theropy. Like, when you break up with a cute girlfriend, you rationalize why she wasen't REALLY that hot to your budies, even though you know and they know she was smoking hot, to make yourself feel better about the future. thats how i took those threads.
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Re: Why Are Boston Fans Obsessed with Young Players?
« Reply #18 on: July 30, 2008, 12:35:23 PM »

Offline jay_jay54

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Reading the Manny to Dodgers thread was just the straw that broke the camel's back. Fans posting that Matt Kemp and some other prospects I've never heard of would be appropriate replacements for Manny.

Another thread regarding the Tejada to Sox rumor included a post by a fan saying something similar like "oh Tejada is old..why would we want him?"
In other words, because Tejada isn't young with potential, the fan trashed Tejada.

Are you kidding me?  People, just because someone is young with potential doesn't make them a great player.

My five year old niece is young and has potential..doesn't mean she's going to be a great sports player.

I read alot of other threads on this site (and other websites) and I just scratch my head. Alot of times I get the feeling that most Boston sport fans care moe about having a PG-13 sports team than a team that wins.

TP for an excellent topic, Gpap. Relatively new to this board, but the fascination with unproven and unaccomplished youth isn't unique to this board at all. It's on EVERY Celtics board out there. There's one - Celtic Nation - where you can still get into an argument about whether "all our promising youth" should have been dealt for Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen. Unbelievable.

The Celtics developed one player with who can accurately be characterized with great potential - Al Jefferson, although he can't defend a chair right now. They grew a couple of players who will be solid NBA role players - West and Gomes.

Beyond that ... nothing. I think you've seen the phenomenon in the hyperbole surrounding Tony Allen - Roy Hobbs' description of him as a "savant" is CB HOF material - and the scramble for excuses to defend the signing of Patrick O'Bryant, a massive college underachiever who couldn't make a team that doesn't require anyone to play defense.

Danny appears to be a card-carrying member of the club, and right now his obsession scares me to death - because our bench looks like the bare late 1980s benches that accelerated the minutes - and thus the decline - of Bird and McHale.

The danger in this approach falls when you begin believing that you're such an astute judge of "potential" that you can start sweeping out proven veterans and replacing them with the soup du jour off the scrap heap, ostensibly to save money. It's a very dangerous game.

its with every board of every sport. not to plug our hated rivals, but head over to lakersground, they have a ton of threads on thier new rookies/younger players. also, if you want to see a fan base die a little in side, read the game 6 and game 4 game threads. thier epic.

(i check them once a day, just to see if they have any "OMG CELTICS WON CAUSE LEAGUE HATES US!!! threads up, those are always good for a laugh. been doing it ever since roy pointed me over there during the playoffs for one of the kookier rants.)

Young players are fun to follow, thier like books you haven't read yet. I love our vets, but i know what there going to bring me, these new kids, i have zero idea, it could be either walker, giddens, powe, davis, what have you will go on to hall of fame careers, it could be that they'll flame out.

Either way, its fun to watch and speculate about.

as to the, several threads about how were better off without posey, those mostly came up after he left, and i think of those like theropy. Like, when you break up with a cute girlfriend, you rationalize why she wasen't REALLY that hot to your budies, even though you know and they know she was smoking hot, to make yourself feel better about the future. thats how i took those threads.
Crownsy,i like how you view things,but the Posey loss was like losing a starter in a sense, a big part of our teams' success this past season... if anyone thinks he can be replaced that simple,why haven't we seen any major improvements happen yet?I was watching "The Best [dang] Sports Show"last night,with Pierce,the Glove,Sally,and C.Webb.In the final minutes of the show,the Glove asked Paul about the Pose loss,and went on to say,he was a big part of their success,etc.,etc,but Pierce didn't really have much to say in the matter,but  he agreed with the Glove about Pose being a main part of the team winning.The point  the Glove was getting at(imo),you lost a huge piece to your road to being a champion next season.
« Last Edit: July 30, 2008, 12:47:17 PM by jay_jay54 »

Re: Why Are Boston Fans Obsessed with Young Players?
« Reply #19 on: July 30, 2008, 12:37:18 PM »

Offline guava_wrench

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there is something about Theo et al that i'm not crazy about......they are heading this team towards one with almost NO personality. they want guys that fit their statistical goals but IMO don't have qualities that go above and beyond averages, etc...anything unpredictable bothers them....i think they would be happy with a team of robots.

Papelbon?

Re: Why Are Boston Fans Obsessed with Young Players?
« Reply #20 on: July 30, 2008, 01:32:10 PM »

Offline BballTim

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Yeah, as I recall, polls (on Celticsblog and boston.com) showed that most fans were against the KG trade prior to us getting Ray, when it was reported that we'd be giving up Big Al and the #5. 

When we traded for Ray, I think reaction was mixed; some people thought it was pointless, and others thought we got good value.  Most people seemed to think Ray himself wasn't enough, and wanted a follow-up move.

Once the KG trade happened, I'd say people were close to uniformly positive on it.  There were still a very few anti-trade holdouts, but for the most part, reaction was very positive.

As for the question of the thread, I think people like the "next big thing" phenomenon.  They enjoy day-dreaming and thinking about how dominant a team centered around Patrick O'Bryant and Bill Walker is going to be in the future (while, strangely, ignoring the question of whether that youth actually helps the team win now).

I agree, Roy. Perhaps some are satisfied with the one title and willing to move on beyond Ray, KG and Pierce already- although I can't see a future with some of these bargain-basement acquisitions.

Interesting, though, the enthusiasm that surrounds a totally unproven and unaccomplished commodity such as the players you name - contrasted against all the negativity surrounding James Posey. You would have thought Posey was a hanger-on who contributed little to last year's club from reading this board pre-signing with N.O.

That's the hard thing to understand: How people fall in love with a player like the Savant or O'Blount who've done absolutely nothing at ANY level while working so hard to depricate a proven winner like Posey.

  Speaking for myself, I'm not satisfied with one title. I'm not ready to move beyond the big three. I just don't have your sky is falling mentality when I look at this team. They still have at least as good a chance to win the title as any team in the league.

  You're basically doing the same thing that you're accusing everyone else of, only instead of Tony Allen or O'Bryant you choose Posey and PJ. Brown didn't perform well in the playoffs and won't do any better (or even as well) when he's 39. And Posey played pretty well but it's not like he was taking over games for us. A lot of what he brought to the team (like championship experience and proven performance in the playoffs) are now shared by more members of the team. If we had Posey next year we'd be better than we will be without him, but the team could easily be better next year than they were last year.

Re: Why Are Boston Fans Obsessed with Young Players?
« Reply #21 on: July 30, 2008, 02:47:01 PM »

Offline crownsy

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I don't think that's always the case.  I think in general the younger you are the more hopeful you are with young players and the older you are the more you realize many talented young players don't pan out like Todd Benzinger and Kevin Morton of the Sox and Michael Smith and Kedrick Brown of the Celts.   

I think with Manny the Sox are thinking do they really want to pay  37 year old next year 20 million who is an unhappy camper and there were reports debating Tejeda's real age and some think he was a former steroids user.   I think every situation is different whether you want an older player or a young player with talent.   I think most Sox fans were happy when we got Schilling several years back, happy the sox re-signed Mike Lowell, and with the Celts we are obviously happy with KG and Ray on the wrong side of 30. 

With all due respect, I'd like to correct you. Originally, most Celtics fans were very tepid in their reaction to Ray Allen and KG being dealt here.

I remember after the draft night Ray Allen deal...alot of fans actually had the audacity to say that Ray Allen was washed-up, a has-been and that we were better off with Delonte, our 1st round-draft pick and Wally Sczerbiak (I can't believe that last part.)

And...if that wasn't bad enough...originally fans were split 50/50 on how they felt about Jefferson and Gomes being dealt for KG. 

Now maybe fans are happy we dealt for both players because KG and Ray proved all these fans wrong and won a championship.

But originally it wasn't like that.

I agree on the Ray Allen trade but as soon as KG trade went through I would say most Celtic fans were ecstatic right after that trade. Sure it was a little bittersweet because Big Al was a great guy and player. 

Yeah, as I recall, polls (on Celticsblog and boston.com) showed that most fans were against the KG trade prior to us getting Ray, when it was reported that we'd be giving up Big Al and the #5. 

When we traded for Ray, I think reaction was mixed; some people thought it was pointless, and others thought we got good value.  Most people seemed to think Ray himself wasn't enough, and wanted a follow-up move.

Once the KG trade happened, I'd say people were close to uniformly positive on it.  There were still a very few anti-trade holdouts, but for the most part, reaction was very positive.

As for the question of the thread, I think people like the "next big thing" phenomenon.  They enjoy day-dreaming and thinking about how dominant a team centered around Patrick O'Bryant and Bill Walker is going to be in the future (while, strangely, ignoring the question of whether that youth actually helps the team win now).

I agree, Roy. Perhaps some are satisfied with the one title and willing to move on beyond Ray, KG and Pierce already- although I can't see a future with some of these bargain-basement acquisitions.

Interesting, though, the enthusiasm that surrounds a totally unproven and unaccomplished commodity such as the players you name - contrasted against all the negativity surrounding James Posey. You would have thought Posey was a hanger-on who contributed little to last year's club from reading this board pre-signing with N.O.

That's the hard thing to understand: How people fall in love with a player like the Savant or O'Blount who've done absolutely nothing at ANY level while working so hard to depricate a proven winner like Posey.


I don't recall people on this board depricating James Posey or insinuating that he was  a "hanger-on who contributed little to last year's club".  I think the majority of the people here were devastated about losing Posey and the ones who were not were only concerned about paying him for a fourth year. James Posey was obviously a very important cog in the wheel that was the Championship Celtics Team and he will be dearly missed.



I for one, second this. I don't remeber it that way, pre or post posey. Sure, some posters put up out there posts claiming he wasen't as big a part as most of us thought (there was one thread in particular on this) but i dont think a majority of people felt or feel that way. Just because one person starts a thread doesnt mean "all the negitivity"

sure, people tried to brace themselves for life without posey, but most wanted him back, just as he wanted to be back. but what are we supposed to do? make emo posts about how the new guys can't hold posey's jock? that won't change the fact that he's a hornet now.

I for one, like to think positivly until proven wrong, if that makes my posts that say i hope to replace some of what posey borught "negitivity" so be it. rather that than be ruthlessly hell bent on lamenting not signing james.

I loved james, wanted him back, but he's gone now, and its time to look ahead.

this idea that there's some sort of backlash against james posey is a huge over generalzation IMO.
« Last Edit: July 30, 2008, 02:58:33 PM by crownsy »
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Re: Why Are Boston Fans Obsessed with Young Players?
« Reply #22 on: July 30, 2008, 07:48:09 PM »

Offline paintitgreen

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I tend to agree with crownsy. I was one of the people who wanted to keep Posey at pretty much any cost, because I loved everything he brought to the team. But I don't think people were "ripping" him. People were arguing that it's better for the team to avoid huge longterm contracts for 31 year old guys who come off the bench. I can understand that even if I don't agree in this specific instance. I don't think it really crossed the line into "Posey was worthless to this team."

Bball Tim I think is going to far with this one, since (a) I think Posey's and Brown's contributions were substantially more than you're giving credit for and (b) I don't see the comparison you're referring to when you say "You're basically doing the same thing that you're accusing everyone else of, only instead of Tony Allen or O'Bryant you choose Posey and PJ."

On the first point, even if what Posey brought was just "championship experience and proven performance in the playoffs," what's so wrong with that? Neither Allen nor O'Bryant has brought that or can bring that. (And spare me comments on Allen's 67 outstanding minutes of work in 26 playoff games.) And while Pierce, Garnett, Ray, Rajon, Perk, Powe and House can now add those items to their resumes, what's the problem with having another guy who has that? Beyond that, Posey added a lot more than just those two elements, he brought leadership, toughness, energy, intensity and an uncanny ability to make clutch plays whenever the occasion called for it. That's a lot of things we could use, whether other guys have it as well or not. And PJ didn't play well in the playoffs? Was he an All Star? No. Did he do everything we could have asked of him? Yes. Nobody's saying he's a starter or necessary, but I'd be a lot happier with PJ Brown next year than Patrick O'Bryant, 39 years old or not.

On the second point, Roy and Coach are not doing the same thing at all. Their point is people are blowing up the value of Tony Allen and Patrick O'Bryant based on the potential they have, even though neither has done anything to indicate they will fulfill their potential. That's completely different from valuing players like Posey and PJ Brown, guys who were essential to us winning a title less than two months ago.

Granted, perhaps they're overestimating the value of PJ and Posey. Assuming for argument's sake that is true, they're overestimating the value of players they like just like others are overestimating the value of players they like in Allen and O'Bryant. While that is a similarity, you're ignoring the crux of the argument. If Coach and Roy are overvaluing, they're doing so on the basis of things PJ and Posey have actually accomplished, while in Celtics uniforms; their criticism of Allen and O'Bryant supporters is that those people are overestimating on the basis of things those guys have never accomplished. It's a vastly different argument.

This is not to say that I hate the O'Bryant or Allen signings. I'm fine with both, with this one caveat. I think we overpaid for both of them. And I really don't see why you refuse to overpay a guy who was an integral part of a championship but are okay with overpaying guys who did not make any (O'Bryant) or even large (Allen) contributions to that championship team.
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Re: Why Are Boston Fans Obsessed with Young Players?
« Reply #23 on: July 31, 2008, 12:45:47 PM »

Offline BballTim

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I tend to agree with crownsy. I was one of the people who wanted to keep Posey at pretty much any cost, because I loved everything he brought to the team. But I don't think people were "ripping" him. People were arguing that it's better for the team to avoid huge longterm contracts for 31 year old guys who come off the bench. I can understand that even if I don't agree in this specific instance. I don't think it really crossed the line into "Posey was worthless to this team."

Bball Tim I think is going to far with this one, since (a) I think Posey's and Brown's contributions were substantially more than you're giving credit for and (b) I don't see the comparison you're referring to when you say "You're basically doing the same thing that you're accusing everyone else of, only instead of Tony Allen or O'Bryant you choose Posey and PJ."

On the first point, even if what Posey brought was just "championship experience and proven performance in the playoffs," what's so wrong with that? Neither Allen nor O'Bryant has brought that or can bring that. (And spare me comments on Allen's 67 outstanding minutes of work in 26 playoff games.) And while Pierce, Garnett, Ray, Rajon, Perk, Powe and House can now add those items to their resumes, what's the problem with having another guy who has that? Beyond that, Posey added a lot more than just those two elements, he brought leadership, toughness, energy, intensity and an uncanny ability to make clutch plays whenever the occasion called for it. That's a lot of things we could use, whether other guys have it as well or not. And PJ didn't play well in the playoffs? Was he an All Star? No. Did he do everything we could have asked of him? Yes. Nobody's saying he's a starter or necessary, but I'd be a lot happier with PJ Brown next year than Patrick O'Bryant, 39 years old or not.

  If you want to say that we got everything from PJ that we could expect from a 38 year old who came out of retirement I'll agree. He wasn't awful, but he wasn't very good. Did he play a key role for us? Yes, because he kept us from playing backup centers who are barely taller than Paul Pierce. Could other tall players have played a similar role? Likely.

  Did Posey play pretty well? Yes. Could we have won the title without him? Probably not. Was he a better than average 6th man for an NBA champion? Probably not. Could we win the title without him next year? Yes. Not being part of the "do whatever it takes to bring back Posey" crowd doesn't mean that you're "satisfied with the one title and willing to move on beyond Ray, KG and Pierce already".

On the second point, Roy and Coach are not doing the same thing at all. Their point is people are blowing up the value of Tony Allen and Patrick O'Bryant based on the potential they have, even though neither has done anything to indicate they will fulfill their potential. That's completely different from valuing players like Posey and PJ Brown, guys who were essential to us winning a title less than two months ago.

  The Tony Allen fans pretty much expect him to play as well as he has in the past before he was injured. That's completely different from Patrick O'Bryant. And Gerald Henderson was essential to us winning the title in 1984. He made a play that was more clutch than anything you'll see from Posey or PJ. Did that mean that we'd drop from the ranks of serious contenders when  he left? Does it mean that if we had another player of similar ability to Henderson who made different key plays than Gerald did that we'd have lost in 1984? Who knows? People twist "we couldn't have won that game without PJ playing like he did" to "we couldn't have won that game (or another  game we lost) with a different player making different contributions".

Granted, perhaps they're overestimating the value of PJ and Posey. Assuming for argument's sake that is true, they're overestimating the value of players they like just like others are overestimating the value of players they like in Allen and O'Bryant. While that is a similarity, you're ignoring the crux of the argument. If Coach and Roy are overvaluing, they're doing so on the basis of things PJ and Posey have actually accomplished, while in Celtics uniforms; their criticism of Allen and O'Bryant supporters is that those people are overestimating on the basis of things those guys have never accomplished. It's a vastly different argument.

  I'm not sure how to respond to this. Are you saying that it's ok for people who overrate players to post about how other people overrate different players because their reason for overrating players is different? It seems like fair game to me.

This is not to say that I hate the O'Bryant or Allen signings. I'm fine with both, with this one caveat. I think we overpaid for both of them. And I really don't see why you refuse to overpay a guy who was an integral part of a championship but are okay with overpaying guys who did not make any (O'Bryant) or even large (Allen) contributions to that championship team.

  You have to consider the magnitude. Posey's deal was longer and larger than Allen or O'Bryant's deals so it would restrict future transactions. And, frankly, Ainge was going to overpay Posey (3 years of the MLE), there was just a limit to how much he'd overpay him.

Re: Why Are Boston Fans Obsessed with Young Players?
« Reply #24 on: July 31, 2008, 03:00:58 PM »

Offline paintitgreen

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  If you want to say that we got everything from PJ that we could expect from a 38 year old who came out of retirement I'll agree. He wasn't awful, but he wasn't very good. Did he play a key role for us? Yes, because he kept us from playing backup centers who are barely taller than Paul Pierce. Could other tall players have played a similar role? Likely.

We don't really disagree much here. The only thing I argued against was your statement that "Brown didn't perform well in the playoffs." I know there are other guys who could have done what PJ did. But PJ did it. I thought Brown played better than Perk did in most of the Cleveland series, albeit very subtly. He provided better offense away from the basket (something not every "tall" player can do), and played smart on the glass (something not every "tall" player, even good rebounders, can do). He worked because we were going against two good veteran rebounders in Z and Wallace. They were giving little pushes every time they went for a board, and Perk was getting frustrated. Instead of getting frustrated, PJ just tapped the ball forward a little and accepted the contact, but put the ball in the position he was going to be in after the little push from behind. He just played smart, the way Perk doesn't always do and the way O'Bryant has never shown he can do.

I did not intend to imply that no other center could do what PJ did, or that we cannot win without PJ Brown. Besides, Brown is gone because he's retiring, I won't linger on him too much. Obviously, we have to get somebody to replace him, and I'm not saying O'Bryant won't work out. I have some concerns, but I think we'll get past it and win anyway.

My PJ discussion was only to give him a little defense after your statement. I like him, that's all, and I appreciate what he did and wanted to write that. And me saying that doesn't mean I am accusing you of not liking or appreciating him, so please don't take it that way. It also doesn't mean that I don't think we can find adequate replacements for PJ. I know we can and I am also hopeful (if somewhat doubtful) O'Bryant works out in that role.

  Did Posey play pretty well? Yes. Could we have won the title without him? Probably not. Was he a better than average 6th man for an NBA champion? Probably not. Could we win the title without him next year? Yes. Not being part of the "do whatever it takes to bring back Posey" crowd doesn't mean that you're "satisfied with the one title and willing to move on beyond Ray, KG and Pierce already".

I never said that you were "satisfied with the one title and willing to move on..." I never said anybody was that way. If other people have said it, other people have said it, but I didn't. I actually specifically said "People were arguing that it's better for the team to avoid huge longterm contracts for 31 year old guys who come off the bench. I can understand that even if I don't agree in this specific instance. I don't think it really crossed the line into 'Posey was worthless to this team.'"

Now, I said that statement to stick up for your side of the argument. To me, you believing Posey was and is replaceable doesn't mean you don't like him as a player or that you don't care about the Celtics winning in the next couple of seasons. It just means you disagree with me on whether Posey is worth that specific amount of money (4 years of the full MLE). It's perfectly reasonable  to think it was and is in our best interest as a team and as a franchise, in the short term (next 2 years) and long term (3-5 years down the road) not to give Posey that contract. I understand the argument, and am not making any accusations toward people, like you, who think that way.

Maybe we can cover the loss of Posey and remain a championship contender in the short term more easily than we can cover the bad consequences of having Posey at $7 million, maybe 14 with the luxury tax, in three years. I don't agree with it, like I said, but I understand it and accept the argument and accept that people who hold that view still want to win as much as possible at all times. Know that I did not accuse you of giving up on the next two years.
 
I also never said, and will never say, that we can't win without Posey. I think letting him go weakened us severely, to the point that I would have gone to 4 years, provided Posey left us enough room to sign a guy like Walker with the rest of the MLE. I think we could have covered the problems three years down the line more easily than any problems that emerge from not having Posey. However, I believe we can cover that loss in the short term, even if it will be difficult, and I fully believe we can and will come away with another title or two in the next 4 seasons even without Posey.

  The Tony Allen fans pretty much expect him to play as well as he has in the past before he was injured. That's completely different from Patrick O'Bryant. And Gerald Henderson was essential to us winning the title in 1984. He made a play that was more clutch than anything you'll see from Posey or PJ. Did that mean that we'd drop from the ranks of serious contenders when he left? Does it mean that if we had another player of similar ability to Henderson who made different key plays than Gerald did that we'd have lost in 1984? Who knows? People twist "we couldn't have won that game without PJ playing like he did" to "we couldn't have won that game (or another  game we lost) with a different player making different contributions".

Okay, there's one part where we disagree - Tony Allen. You expect him to return to what he used to be before injuries. I have a lot of hope for him, but first, I don't expect him to return to that, not with some explosiveness lost. And second, I don't really want him just to return to what he was before. His turnover tendencies, which were fully on display before he was ever hurt, bug me and make me doubt his ability to be an above average player.

I want him to get better than he was and hope he can. But I personally don't think he's done anything to warrant a belief that he'll live up to his potential. You obviously do. We disagree on that, but I see the reason on your side. I'm sure we both hope he does turn into the player he had potential to be a couple of years ago, not just the player he was a couple of years ago - I want him to be better than he's ever been and have hope, even if I also have doubt, he can do it, at least well enough to help us toward another title.
 
The overall reason Tony Allen and O'Bryant got lumped in together is because this entire thread is dedicated to obsession with young players. Those are two young players, for whom we paid a combined $4+ million for this year and next. I admit Tony Allen has done more for the Celtics to be deserving of a contract than O'Bryant, and they're completely different signings. I lump them together because they're both young and symptomatic of the point brought up in the original post.

I also don't see the reason for the Henderson argument. Henderson was replaceable, and Posey is too. I'm with you on that, if I didn't make clear before. I just don't see where it fits into this discussion. If we could have traded Posey for the #2 pick in the draft in a couple of years, I would've signed up for that in a heartbeat. 

Now, your last point may be true. If we hadn't gotten James Posey, maybe we'd have somebody else in there who could have done different great things and we would've won anyway. Maybe Allen could have gotten that big steal Posey got toward the end of Game 6 against Detroit. But I'll say this. When Posey hit a 3 in the fourth quarter of Game 4 to cut it to a 1 point game, then when he hit another with the shot clock running down and a minute left to extend it to a 5 point lead - I don't think Tony Allen makes either, much less both, of those shots. Allen can do some of the things Posey can do, but Posey can also make big shots when we need them. He can be replaced, and we can win without him, but I just think it was worth his asking price to keep him, a guy we know can help us win now, in green.

Hopefully, Allen can give bigger contributions this year with good perimeter defense and slashing like he used to, with fewer turnovers and better shooting. And hopefully Giddens and Walker can both provide some more of those things off the bench as well. I think they can do enough to compensate for the loss of Posey. Plus, I think our team will improve from the full year together and put us in fewer dire situations where we need a big shot from Posey to bail us out. I think it can and will happen, I just would have preferred knowing Posey was there for us.

Granted, perhaps they're overestimating the value of PJ and Posey. Assuming for argument's sake that is true, they're overestimating the value of players they like just like others are overestimating the value of players they like in Allen and O'Bryant. While that is a similarity, you're ignoring the crux of the argument. If Coach and Roy are overvaluing, they're doing so on the basis of things PJ and Posey have actually accomplished, while in Celtics uniforms; their criticism of Allen and O'Bryant supporters is that those people are overestimating on the basis of things those guys have never accomplished. It's a vastly different argument.

  I'm not sure how to respond to this. Are you saying that it's ok for people who overrate players to post about how other people overrate different players because their reason for overrating players is different? It seems like fair game to me.

The more I think about it, you're probably right on this. It was an unnecessary point to pick out. I was responding more to you saying it was "essentially the same thing." You're right, it is essentially the same thing, because at it's core the essence of the argument is about overrating players for one reason or another. They think it's wrong to overrate players just because they have potential that's never been proven. You think it's just as wrong, and you're probably right, to overrate players just because of something they did in the past, even the recent past. But you are exactly correct, if you are overrating, you are overrating and the reasons for it really don't matter.

I guess I argued it because I don't think Posey and PJ's values were overrated, I think they were underrated. But that's different from the actual, and incorrect, argument I made. Thanks for pointing out my faulty logic. I stand corrected. We think Allen and O'Bryant are overvalued; you think Posey is overvalued (at least at that price). It's really the same thing and you were correct to make the comparison - the arguments are "essentially the same" and it was pointless and off-topic for me to argue the arguments aren't exactly the same, which may be true but was entirely irrelevant. Sorry about that.

This is not to say that I hate the O'Bryant or Allen signings. I'm fine with both, with this one caveat. I think we overpaid for both of them. And I really don't see why you refuse to overpay a guy who was an integral part of a championship but are okay with overpaying guys who did not make any (O'Bryant) or even large (Allen) contributions to that championship team.

  You have to consider the magnitude. Posey's deal was longer and larger than Allen or O'Bryant's deals so it would restrict future transactions. And, frankly, Ainge was going to overpay Posey (3 years of the MLE), there was just a limit to how much he'd overpay him.

Again, you might be right. I was glad Danny took the money made available when Posey went elsewhere and spent it on House and Allen - I think the O'Bryant signing was already done at that point. And Posey's deal was two years longer. Part of me is frustrated because I feel that we could have gotten Posey for a 3 year MLE deal if we offered it sooner, but hey, that's how negotiations work. It worked out for Posey, he got overpaid by New Orleans, I fully admit that. Hopefully it works out for us, too, and not paying that money to Posey benefits us more than paying it would have. And if it was overpaying (I'm not as convinced we would have been overpaying Posey with the same deal, since I think he has more value to us than to New Orleans), then yes, it would probably be significantly more overpaying than the O'Bryant and Allen deals.

I hope, and believe, the Celtics will overcome the loss of their Sixth Man, and that the youth will work out. I wish we had kept Posey so I would have to rely less on that. But I understand why people disagree, and also understand that if you're on this site, you want the Celtics to win (visitors excepted). In no way did I mean to disparage your fanhood, Tim, I disagree with you on several things, but know that you are making your evaluations on the basis of what makes the best team, and I thank you for calling me out on my lesser arguments.
Go Celtics.

Re: Why Are Boston Fans Obsessed with Young Players?
« Reply #25 on: July 31, 2008, 03:38:03 PM »

Offline BballTim

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  If you want to say that we got everything from PJ that we could expect from a 38 year old who came out of retirement I'll agree. He wasn't awful, but he wasn't very good. Did he play a key role for us? Yes, because he kept us from playing backup centers who are barely taller than Paul Pierce. Could other tall players have played a similar role? Likely.

We don't really disagree much here. The only thing I argued against was your statement that "Brown didn't perform well in the playoffs." I know there are other guys who could have done what PJ did. But PJ did it. I thought Brown played better than Perk did in most of the Cleveland series, albeit very subtly. He provided better offense away from the basket (something not every "tall" player can do), and played smart on the glass (something not every "tall" player, even good rebounders, can do). He worked because we were going against two good veteran rebounders in Z and Wallace. They were giving little pushes every time they went for a board, and Perk was getting frustrated. Instead of getting frustrated, PJ just tapped the ball forward a little and accepted the contact, but put the ball in the position he was going to be in after the little push from behind. He just played smart, the way Perk doesn't always do and the way O'Bryant has never shown he can do.

I did not intend to imply that no other center could do what PJ did, or that we cannot win without PJ Brown. Besides, Brown is gone because he's retiring, I won't linger on him too much. Obviously, we have to get somebody to replace him, and I'm not saying O'Bryant won't work out. I have some concerns, but I think we'll get past it and win anyway.

My PJ discussion was only to give him a little defense after your statement. I like him, that's all, and I appreciate what he did and wanted to write that. And me saying that doesn't mean I am accusing you of not liking or appreciating him, so please don't take it that way. It also doesn't mean that I don't think we can find adequate replacements for PJ. I know we can and I am also hopeful (if somewhat doubtful) O'Bryant works out in that role.

  Honestly I was fine with the contribution we got from PJ. I didn't have high expectations and I was glad that Doc could put him in instead of Davis or Powe, especially against Cleveland. But I don't think that overall his play was good. He was fine against Cleveland but struggled in the other 3 series. I will disagree with him playing better than Perk against Cleveland because of Perk's defense, both against his man and helping out on LeBron. I'd like to see a stat of LeBron's play with and without Perk on the court. I think the results might surprise some people.

  Did Posey play pretty well? Yes. Could we have won the title without him? Probably not. Was he a better than average 6th man for an NBA champion? Probably not. Could we win the title without him next year? Yes. Not being part of the "do whatever it takes to bring back Posey" crowd doesn't mean that you're "satisfied with the one title and willing to move on beyond Ray, KG and Pierce already".

I never said that you were "satisfied with the one title and willing to move on..." I never said anybody was that way. If other people have said it, other people have said it, but I didn't. I actually specifically said "People were arguing that it's better for the team to avoid huge longterm contracts for 31 year old guys who come off the bench. I can understand that even if I don't agree in this specific instance. I don't think it really crossed the line into 'Posey was worthless to this team.'"

  I'll let this drop. I responded to a post that wasn't yours, you responded to me, I defended my post while responding to you. I don't want to go through this and separate my comments that refer to what I originally responded to from those that are directed at you. Suffice to say I wasn't trying to put words in your mouth.

  The Tony Allen fans pretty much expect him to play as well as he has in the past before he was injured. That's completely different from Patrick O'Bryant. And Gerald Henderson was essential to us winning the title in 1984. He made a play that was more clutch than anything you'll see from Posey or PJ. Did that mean that we'd drop from the ranks of serious contenders when he left? Does it mean that if we had another player of similar ability to Henderson who made different key plays than Gerald did that we'd have lost in 1984? Who knows? People twist "we couldn't have won that game without PJ playing like he did" to "we couldn't have won that game (or another  game we lost) with a different player making different contributions".

Okay, there's one part where we disagree - Tony Allen. You expect him to return to what he used to be before injuries. I have a lot of hope for him, but first, I don't expect him to return to that, not with some explosiveness lost. And second, I don't really want him just to return to what he was before. His turnover tendencies, which were fully on display before he was ever hurt, bug me and make me doubt his ability to be an above average player.
 
The overall reason Tony Allen and O'Bryant got lumped in together is because this entire thread is dedicated to obsession with young players. Those are two young players, for whom we paid a combined $4+ million for this year and next. I admit Tony Allen has done more for the Celtics to be deserving of a contract than O'Bryant, and they're completely different signings. I lump them together because they're both young and symptomatic of the point brought up in the original post.


  Two things here: I didn't say that I expected TA to play the way he has in the past, I said others do. But I do expect him to play better than he did last year. Also, TA has averaged 19 minutes a game for 236 games for the Celts. O'Bryant's averaged 5 minutes a game for 40 games for the Warriors. Opinions on TA are based on seeing him play, opinions on POB are based more on hope.