I briefly interrupt this free agent love fest for the following: We spend a lot of time talking about defensive capabilities and intangibles and the like, but rarely have I seen a full on discussion about who the best offensive player in the NBA is. Let that discussion begin. This graph is a eFG% vs. PPG graph for prolific scorers in the NBA. Average values are denoted by the red lines. The data was pulled from Basketball-Reference and the players to appear were selected by me (there is selection bias). I tried to pick a balance of players from teams. I picked only players with PPG over 17 (with one exception, Steve Nash). For most of these players, it cannot be argued that they do not have the ability to create their own shot. Teams rely on each of these players for major offensive production.
I feel that an offensive player should be able to produce big time points but should do it effectively. Although eFG% is an excellent way to measure a player's offensive efficiency, it is not perfect. One problem is that it misrepresents players who are intentionally fouled due to low FT %. For example, Dwight Howard's eFG% would probably be a heck of a lot higher if he could hit 85% from the line as teams would be more willing to let him get a shot close to the basket. Currently, teams do anything in their power to foul him before his extremely high % shots. Same thing with Shaq throughout his career. Many Shaq dunks were avoided by fouling. eFG% does not do favor to these guys. However, one can argue that poor FT% should also be included in any measure of offensive efficiency, and so I have tried to include that in the concept of "Posessions" (as you'll see). Another problem with eFG% is that players who turn the ball over a ton on the way to effective offensive production (step forward, D. Wade) are overrated.
To rectify this and other similar problems, I pulled something out of my ass that I like to call "Possessions." This is basically FGA + FTA/2 + TOV (all numbers per game). In my mind, it represents possessions used by each player in order to generate his production. I know there are some problems with this. First, point guards (and others) who have as a major part of their duty distributing the ball will have higher TOV. Second, players who get many And-1's will actually be using fewer possessions than this number indicates. Furthermore, players shooting many technical freethrows will not be rated appropriately. However, it does provide some interesting information (ex. although Jefferson/Yao seem to be more effective in the post than Duncan, they also use more possessions to get their work done).
Alright, so here's what I think I learned after making this:
Our own big 3 are very effective with respect to both eFG% and "Possessions." Furthermore, Ray Allen and KG had two of the lowest TOV/game of any of the players I looked at.
Using this, I believe a stronger case can be made for Amare as the premier offensive player in the NBA than for any other player. Amare's possessions were exactly on the border of yellow/red but I put the cutoff after him due to the And-1 bias I discussed earlier.
In the case of Iverson/Anthony, it seems very obvious that shots should be transferred to Anthony--he has a much higher eFG% than Iverson and can create his own shot.
Despite all the talk about how Al Jefferson was not enough to be the centerpiece of a trade for Garnett, his offensive production seems to be almost exactly the same as that of Yao. I don't know how far apart they are defensively but do know that both have a reputation for poor defense. Given that, would anyone protest if Yao was the focal point of a trade platter for KG?? So why do people argue about Big Al?
This graph makes Mike Dunleavy look great. It seems he may be severely underrated with respect to his offensive abilities.
Steve Nash is absolutely ridiculously amazing. Despite his reputation as a high-turnover PG, he is extremely effective offensively. I was so shocked by this that I looked up his career eFG%. Guess what? This is not an outlier. I think the Sixers may have been much better off making him the first pick of the 96 draft.
Kobe is below average with respect to eFG% (no excuses this year for poor teammates, please). He also used a high number of possessions, for what its worth.
Bosh is a yellow dot among a sea of red ones. If you subscribe to "Possessions," this means he is much more effective at scoring than his eFG% would have us believe.
Gordon seems better than Deng offensively, despite accusations that he's just another undependable jump shooter.
Both Deng and Josh Smith (highly touted RFA) are poor in terms of offensive production.
This adds another exhibit to the "Kevin Durant Sucks" stack of evidence. I was quite tempted to promptly break all the above guidelines of player selection in order to add Al Horford.
Another interesting tidbit: Mr. Vinsanity and R-Jeff had nearly the same eFG%. Now I'm pretty sure this wasn't due to planning, but it seems that major offensive players on the same team should reallocate shots until they have the same eFG% in order to gain maximum effectiveness (you listening, George Karl? How about you, SVG?)
Alright, one last note: I'm very open to criticism and promise I'll try my best to not get defensive unnecessarily. Let me know if you have any suggestions, questions, would like to see the raw numbers, want me to add a player or think I should remove a player, etc. Also I enjoy doing stuff like this so let me know if there's some other data you'd like to see. Right now, I'm thinking of doing something with the idea of consistency (which players vary the most from game to game and which are more dependable) and would appreciate any ideas or thoughts with regard to this.
Topic: Who is the best offensive player in the NBA? (Read 7184 times)