Author Topic: 2010 = the Assist = Paul Pierce Restructures  (Read 3860 times)

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2010 = the Assist = Paul Pierce Restructures
« on: July 15, 2008, 01:50:35 PM »

KGamblePreBigContract

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Player 2010-2011
Kevin Garnett $21,200,000
Paul Pierce $21,515,521  
Kendrick Perkins $4,390,208   
Rajon Rondo $3,018,783
J.R. Giddens* $917,200

Team options are in red and qualifying offers are in green.  Player options are listed in blue. 

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I believe I have 'cracked the code', i.e. why Ainge allegedly only offered Posey 2 years.

1)Players cannot, like the NFL, restructure their contract.
2)But, players can opt out of their option years.
3)Pierce wants to win.  He has tasted winning, he is righfully gloating in his victory.  And he is smart enough to understand legacy, and to understand history, and to understand how winning here, with the Celtics, is different than winning almost anywhere else. 
4)I believe, if one carefully looks at things, especially Anige's alleged hesitancy with even a three year contract with Posey, there may be something to this.  A prior post locked onto this and asked, is Anige gearing up for 2010? 
5)In that post, it was concluded by some that the math didn't add up.  Just b/w Peirce and Garnett and Perkins, the three commited contracts, at best with a nice raise in salary cap to 65mil, we maybe have 11 mil cap space free.  That is without ANYONE ELSE signed.
6)But, there is a way out of this, if Bird rights are renounced for any free agents - then for example, we would only be able to sign Ray Allen back at the veteran minimum (if I understand it correctly); in renouncing all bird rights, we have only two players who are under contract: Garnett and Perkins.  We have 1 qualifying (Rondo) and 1 team option (Giddens), that are both reasonable (4 mil and 1 mil respectively).
7)That's right, only two people under contract (Garnett, Perkins), and two more with reasonable cap figures (Rondo, Giddens [if he pans out])
That's right - Pierce is not under contract, if he opts out!!!
8)Thus, best case scenario, and my purpose for this post: I speculate that Pierce and Ainge have a verbal agreement, that if Ainge and ownership continue to proove to Pierce that they want to win, and are willing to spend responsibly towards that goal, including luxury tax cash - then based on my understanding of Paul Pierce's desire to win, and how they lived up to Pierce's plea this year, and will continue over the next two years, then Pierce has a gentleman's agreement with Danny Ainge to opt out of his contract and take a much lower salary, so that Ainge can go after one of the BIG TYME free agents on the market in 2010.  Part of this 'verbal agreement' might include ownerships willingness to pay some luxury tax to make this happen (so that Pierce isn't the only one 'giving back' for the good of the team), and Wyck is smart enought to know - God can only imagine how off the charts a team would be if they ponied up the money to have a Lebron James along with a Pierce and a Garnett - and how LUCRATIVE that would be.
9)The bestest best case scenario has Ray Allen also agreeing to return to the team for the veteran minimum.  Though I'm not suggesting Ainge has the Ray Allen returning for veteran minimum worked out with Ray now, I could forsee it happening IF something as amazing as the Celtics pulling Lebron James happens and Ray felt in the 'spirit' of Pierce's money sacrifice in the name of Ubuntu.

So in summary, my thesis is: Paul Pierce and Danny Ainge have a gentleman's agreement that as long as both sides remain happy over the next few years (barring injury or team ownership loosing it's willingness to pay to earn), then Pierce will opt out of his contract and resign at a price that will allow the Celtics to score a BIG TYME free agent in 2010.

There ya have it!  Case solved.
« Last Edit: July 15, 2008, 04:37:34 PM by KGamblePreBigContract »

Re: 2010 = the Assist = Paul Pierce Restructures
« Reply #1 on: July 15, 2008, 01:58:11 PM »

Offline Big Ticket

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For some reason I highly doubt that there is already some agreement or Pierce to opt out.  That is too far into the future to be considered at this point, but you may very well be correct about them not wanting to give Posey more than 2 years because of where their current big contracts pan out.  You clearly put a lot of thought into this though... so nice work.


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Re: 2010 = the Assist = Paul Pierce Restructures
« Reply #2 on: July 15, 2008, 02:05:55 PM »

Offline Roy Hobbs

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As explained later in the FAQ, it's unclear if Pierce actually has an opt out.  Hoopshype says he doesn't, Shamsports says he does.

Still, working from your hypothetical, assuming Pierce *does* have an opt out, for him to create any serious cap room for us he'd have to leave between $10 and $12 million on the table (and this is assuming we don't pick up any long-term contracts in the mean time).  It's certainly possible, but is winning a championship worth $12 million (plus limiting your future earnings due to restrictions on annual raises)?

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Re: 2010 = the Assist = Paul Pierce Restructures
« Reply #3 on: July 15, 2008, 02:06:07 PM »

KGamblePreBigContract

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Admittedly hugely conspiratorial - my point really is that, if Pierce does option out, the Celtics are in incredibly great cap shape to make a run at a top free agent.  Of course I am just guessing (and with a little wink wink action) that they have an agreement now.  But weirder things happen, you have to have foresight and plan ahead.  Maybe it's more realistic to think that Ainge KNOWS that Pierce can option out, and Ainge might have a gut feeling if he proposed this to Pierce that Pierce would go along with it.  Likewise, Pierce is from comments he makes (be it Posey or Marbury) clearly aware of his own teams salary cap, and aware of other players situations - so I wouldn't be surprised if Pierce has it in the back of his own mind, that if it came down to winning - he could always opt out to make a Top tier free agent aquisition happen, that he could suggest to Ainge and ownership he'd be willing to do this with some stipulations (i.e. if they don't get a top tier free agent they will give him a new contract equal to what he opted out of; and possibly the owners will have to take a bit of a luxury tax so it's not totally coming out of Pierces pocket).

Re: 2010 = the Assist = Paul Pierce Restructures
« Reply #4 on: July 15, 2008, 02:11:32 PM »

Offline Roy Hobbs

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Nice thread, by the way.  It's not what I was expecting, reading the thread title.  It's always nice to see somebody who has tried to delve into the CBA.

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Re: 2010 = the Assist = Paul Pierce Restructures
« Reply #5 on: July 15, 2008, 02:13:59 PM »

KGamblePreBigContract

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You make some key points:
1)We don't know for sure it is an opt out year.
2)League rules about annual raise limits come into play

and I'd add

3)Are there League rules that limit how much of a pay cut someone can take.  I doubt it, since for example, a player might go from a superstar to a minimum contract player due to injury (Darius Miles) or substance abuse (Birdman Anderson).


Finally I'd just add, I know money is a huge part of all this, and players righfully want to earn it, but I also know that some players who really want to win take less, sometimes much less, to go to teams to win late in their careers.  So it wouldn't surprise me, if Paul Pierce would take a cut TO STAY ON TOP with the team he's always been with.  He'll be coming off of multiple almost 20 million a year contracts - I can see him saying - 'money isn't everything - I've made enough of it', in the same way that you have heard quotes from Ray Allen, Pierce, and Garnett that they all knew they would have to sacrifice some of their being THE MAN (and stats) to work together as a team.

Re: 2010 = the Assist = Paul Pierce Restructures
« Reply #6 on: July 15, 2008, 02:16:40 PM »

Offline Big Ticket

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3)Are there League rules that limit how much of a pay cut someone can take.  I doubt it, since for example, a player might go from a superstar to a minimum contract player due to injury (Darius Miles) or substance abuse (Birdman Anderson).

Outside of the minimum salary allowed to a player based on his tenure in the NBA, I don't think there are any 'minimum' rules. 


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Re: 2010 = the Assist = Paul Pierce Restructures
« Reply #7 on: July 15, 2008, 02:17:59 PM »

Offline Roy Hobbs

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Quote
3)Are there League rules that limit how much of a pay cut someone can take.  I doubt it, since for example, a player might go from a superstar to a minimum contract player due to injury (Darius Miles) or substance abuse (Birdman Anderson).

Not on a new contract.  I believe that annual decreases within a contract are limited to 8%, but once Pierce hits free agency, we can re-sign him for a substantial decrease in salary.  I *believe* the same applies to extensions, which explains how KG's salary decreased so substantially (by right around 25%).

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Re: 2010 = the Assist = Paul Pierce Restructures
« Reply #8 on: July 15, 2008, 02:31:01 PM »

Offline BballTim

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So in summary, my thesis is: Paul Pierce and Danny Ainge have a gentleman's agreement that as long as both sides remain happy over the next few years (barring injury or team ownership loosing it's willingness to pay to earn), then Pierce will opt out of his contract and resign at a price that will allow the Celtics to score a BIG TYME free agent in 2010.

There ya have it!  Case solved.


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Re: 2010 = the Assist = Paul Pierce Restructures
« Reply #9 on: July 15, 2008, 02:33:00 PM »

KGamblePreBigContract

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I'd just add, all of the new 'Big 3' are aware of there being a 'window' for them as players at their peak, and as players good enough to be in the NBA, and I can tell you, as you start getting into your 30's, you start recognizing your body doesn't respond as great as it used to.  Pierce knows today that he has a window to win more championships - Pierce knows he won't be able to remain at the top of his game indefinitely.  He may just be willing to sacrifice money if it means one more honest run at a banner with an assist from a top tier free agent with a tab bit fresher legs (can you say Lebron - Lebron has multiple times (I've heard him state it two separate occassions) stated that besides Kobe, Pierce is next in line for who he has 'idolized' offensively).  Based on how he and Pierce squared off in the playoffs, I'm sure Lebron has plenty of respect for Pierce.  Now it's a huge leap to think he'd come here over everone whose going to be after him, but it's nice to dream team once and a while.

Re: 2010 = the Assist = Paul Pierce Restructures
« Reply #10 on: July 15, 2008, 02:37:50 PM »

KGamblePreBigContract

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Haha, "Elton Brand, Corey Magette Say Goodbye to Clippers" and Hello to me and my theory!!!

Re: 2010 = the Assist = Paul Pierce Restructures
« Reply #11 on: July 15, 2008, 03:07:50 PM »

Offline Bankshot

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As explained later in the FAQ, it's unclear if Pierce actually has an opt out.  Hoopshype says he doesn't, Shamsports says he does.

Still, working from your hypothetical, assuming Pierce *does* have an opt out, for him to create any serious cap room for us he'd have to leave between $10 and $12 million on the table (and this is assuming we don't pick up any long-term contracts in the mean time).  It's certainly possible, but is winning a championship worth $12 million (plus limiting your future earnings due to restrictions on annual raises)?

If Pierce feels he's already made more money than he can ever spend, then he might leave the money on the table to win more championships.   
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Re: 2010 = the Assist = Paul Pierce Restructures
« Reply #12 on: July 15, 2008, 03:11:43 PM »

Offline Gainesville Celtic

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FWIW --- i think the more likely scenario than Pierce opting out and leaving money on the table in 2010, is trying to resign a then 34-year-old FA Pierce to a MLE-sized (we wouldn't have the MLE, but could sign Pierce for whatever we want) deal of $5-7M/yr in 2011.

Doing so* would allow us to make a max offer to a FA in the summer 2011.

(*this assumes (a) extending Rondo at around $10M/yr and (b) the only contract longer than 2011 we add is our 2010 #1 pick)
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Re: 2010 = the Assist = Paul Pierce Restructures
« Reply #13 on: July 15, 2008, 04:06:35 PM »

Offline makaveli

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As funny as it is since we won a championship 4 weeks ago, Danny has to develop a 3-4 year plan is such thing is possible. If everybody makes smart moves that will benefit the tam and the team only, the Celtics could stay on top for years.
But it's hard to say what will happen. You never know when someone will get injured, will we pick up a all-star in a draft, how well will Rondo and Perk turn to be, how much does The Big Three got left, who will be a free agent etc.
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