Possible Posey replacement...how about our old gem?...

[soap07]

The guy is a tweener PF who lacks the footspeed to defend a good SF.  He is not that far defensively from Ricky Davis and most people on this board view Davis a sieve. Truthfully, if I am going to take someone of Barnes's defensive skill set, I'd rather go after Davis.  He brings more to the table offensively.


I agree here. Davis, for the LLE, would be a bargain and when he wants to play defense, he can. He's much better offensively than Posey too.

[johnnyrondo]

The guy is a tweener PF who lacks the footspeed to defend a good SF.  He is not that far defensively from Ricky Davis and most people on this board view Davis a sieve. Truthfully, if I am going to take someone of Barnes's defensive skill set, I'd rather go after Davis.  He brings more to the table offensively.


I agree here. Davis, for the LLE, would be a bargain and when he wants to play defense, he can. He's much better offensively than Posey too.

How successful was Miami last year replacing Posey with Davis?

[soap07]

How successful was Miami last year replacing Posey with Davis?

Gee, because clearly, last year's Heat team was the exact same team as the championship team, except Davis for Posey. Their franchise player wasn't injured for a majority of a season or anything, and when he was playing, he wasn't playing hurt clearly. Repeat process for franchise big man Shaquille O'Neal. In fact, what would the Heat team have done with Posey instead of Davis last year? Or Antoine Walker instead of Davis?

That doesn't even include injuries to Alonzo Mourning, Jason Williams, Udonis Haslem...and the big free agent signing of Smush Parker!

How can anyone blame Ricky Davis for last year?

[Fan from VT]

If Posey does leave, here's some statistical encouragement:


http://www.82games.com/0708/07BOS8D.HTM


surprisingly, both our offense and defense were better last year when posey was on the bench. hopefully he's replaceable.

in fact, he had the 3rd worse adjusted +/- differential on the team.

All of our starters were in the positive which makes sense: our team performs better with all starters in than any other squad. However, our team still produced better with powe, bbd, house, or TA on the floor.

FYI #3 behind KG and PP was rondo then #4 was Perk with Ray being the lowest starter (makes sense- the dropoff at point and center from rondo/perk is more significant than the drop from Ray to the bench).

[Roy Hobbs]

If Posey does leave, here's some statistical encouragement:


http://www.82games.com/0708/07BOS8D.HTM


surprisingly, both our offense and defense were better last year when posey was on the bench. hopefully he's replaceable.

Well, it shouldn't be *too* much of a surprise.  Keep in mind that Posey is subbing in for either KG or Paul; neither is a slouch on either end of the court.  Posey is a good player, but when compared to our starters, I think it's natural that his production will be lacking.

[Jr_Bremer1988]

Posey' value goes beyond statistics. I think everyone here knows that. How can you quantify hustle?

[bucknersrevenge]

If Posey does leave, here's some statistical encouragement:


http://www.82games.com/0708/07BOS8D.HTM


surprisingly, both our offense and defense were better last year when posey was on the bench. hopefully he's replaceable.

Well, it shouldn't be *too* much of a surprise.  Keep in mind that Posey is subbing in for either KG or Paul; neither is a slouch on either end of the court.  Posey is a good player, but when compared to our starters, I think it's natural that his production will be lacking.

i thought posey spent half of his time at the 4 with kg at the 5. posey i thought spent most of his time subbing for perk actually, not paul or kg. when posey guarded 4's opponents PER was over 18. when guarding 3's it was around 12.

[jdub1660]

I don't want to call it, but I can't see Posey staying unless he decides he wants to be remembered in Celtics history more than he wants to get paid as he ages. So being real and watching him sign for more money and years, I say Matt Barnes would be an awesome fit. High energy, nice offense and he will play D. Someone said he doesn't show up in big games, but he was a HUGE part a year before last when GS knocked out Dallas in the 1st round. Huge upset led by a young inspired high octane offense team. Stephen Jackson(Whom I'd love to see in green but no chance this year unless they sign and trade Posey with Scalabrine) hit crucial back to back 3's, and I specifically remember Barnes getting a nasty dunk on a fast break, along with a couples 3's. Barnes would be nice, House has to come back, and Pruitt just needs to step up and grow. Even though we picked up OBryant, we still should sign the Birdman for a PJBrown/Pollard replacement.

[timepiece33]

The 82 games stat line is lineup dependent and considers the offensive efficiency of the players around you as well.  Don't particularly care for it and don't believe you get much from it.  For example, I can point to the individual lineups (http://www.82games.com/0708/07BOS8B.HTM) and say that Posey was on the 3 of the top 4 lineups available.

IMO, defensive rating (Opponent's Points Allowed/ Opponent's Possessions) x 100) is a more reflective measure of one's effectiveness on that side of the ball, because it isolates defensive measurements as opposed to throwing out offensive effectiveness in a total rating.  You can look at an individual's TS% and turnover statistics as a measure offensive efficiency.  It doesn't punish a player for playing with Glen Davis or Tony Allen like the 82 games stat. 

On a side note ... suggesting Matt Barnes is a good defender is laughable.  The guy rates closer to the bottom quarter in almost every defensive statistic that normalizes individual play.   How exactly is he a good defender?  Defensively, he's been well below average on every team he's been on ... so you can stop blaming Don Nelson for Matt Barnes poor defensive stats.

I have no qualms saying he had a good series against Dallas.  Good for him.  Doesn't change his play on the defensive side of the ball. The guy is a similar defender from an effectiveness standpoint to Ricky Davis, who is a sieve.   Even with the Dallas series in his wallet, he also struggled down the stretch this year when Golden State needed him.

There are better options than Matt Barnes.  I'd rather have Maurice Evans than Barnes.  He doesn't struggle defensively and provides the same type of outside shooting.   I'd rather have Ricky Davis.   He offers more offensively than Barnes for the poor defensive play you are likely to see for both AND he probably takes a 1 year contract.   

On a positive note, atleast Barnes has made his turnover ratio just mediocre as opposed to awful. 

Barnes is better than Tony Allen, but a poor replacement to Posey.  He offers an outside shot, but is a downgrade in almost every other attribute.

[Fan from VT]

The 82 games stat line is lineup dependent and considers the offensive efficiency of the players around you as well.  Don't particularly care for it and don't believe you get much from it.  For example, I can point to the individual lineups (http://www.82games.com/0708/07BOS8B.HTM) and say that Posey was on the 3 of the top 4 lineups available.

IMO, defensive rating (Opponent's Points Allowed/ Opponent's Possessions) x 100) is a more reflective measure of one's effectiveness on that side of the ball, because it isolates defensive measurements as opposed to throwing out offensive effectiveness in a total rating.  You can look at an individual's TS% and turnover statistics as a measure offensive efficiency.  It doesn't punish a player for playing with Glen Davis or Tony Allen like the 82 games stat. 

On a side note ... suggesting Matt Barnes is a good defender is laughable.  The guy rates closer to the bottom quarter in almost every defensive statistic that normalizes individual play.   How exactly is he a good defender?  Defensively, he's been well below average on every team he's been on ... so you can stop blaming Don Nelson for Matt Barnes poor defensive stats.

I have no qualms saying he had a good series against Dallas.  Good for him.  Doesn't change his play on the defensive side of the ball. The guy is a similar defender from an effectiveness standpoint to Ricky Davis, who is a sieve.   Even with the Dallas series in his wallet, he also struggled down the stretch this year when Golden State needed him.

There are better options than Matt Barnes.  I'd rather have Maurice Evans than Barnes.  He doesn't struggle defensively and provides the same type of outside shooting.   I'd rather have Ricky Davis.   He offers more offensively than Barnes for the poor defensive play you are likely to see for both AND he probably takes a 1 year contract.   

On a positive note, atleast Barnes has made his turnover ratio just mediocre as opposed to awful. 

Barnes is better than Tony Allen, but a poor replacement to Posey.  He offers an outside shot, but is a downgrade in almost every other attribute.

It's true that adj. +/- is lineup dependent, so we do have to be careful.

Again, I like Posey, but I was surprised by what I found with a few clicks.

I was surprised that his +/- was worse than everyone's but Brown and Pruitt. This may have to do with who he was coming in for, but Powe, TA, BBD and House were all spelling good players as well.

I was surprised that, besides Perk and BBD, he was the only major player to be outperformed by his competition at his position. Some of this has to do with the fact that when he's in, he's guarding the opponent's best player and he's not expected to score, but it was still surprising

Most surprising was that the Celtics' defensive rating that you mention was better with Posey off the floor than on it:

With Posey: 101.9 points allowed per 100 possessions
Without Posey: 98.1 points allowed per 100 possessions

Again, I would prefer for Posey to stick around, but I don't think he's completely irreplaceable. I am wary of any player who is riding "intangibles" to the bank. I think that "intangibles" is mostly code for "older player who's a good teammate that got significant playing time on a successful team."


*our defense was 3 points per 100 possessions better with TA on the court than off the court. I wouldn't mind seeing him back with a full year's recovery from his injury.

[Jon]

The 82 games stat line is lineup dependent and considers the offensive efficiency of the players around you as well.  Don't particularly care for it and don't believe you get much from it.  For example, I can point to the individual lineups (http://www.82games.com/0708/07BOS8B.HTM) and say that Posey was on the 3 of the top 4 lineups available.

IMO, defensive rating (Opponent's Points Allowed/ Opponent's Possessions) x 100) is a more reflective measure of one's effectiveness on that side of the ball, because it isolates defensive measurements as opposed to throwing out offensive effectiveness in a total rating.  You can look at an individual's TS% and turnover statistics as a measure offensive efficiency.  It doesn't punish a player for playing with Glen Davis or Tony Allen like the 82 games stat. 

On a side note ... suggesting Matt Barnes is a good defender is laughable.  The guy rates closer to the bottom quarter in almost every defensive statistic that normalizes individual play.   How exactly is he a good defender?  Defensively, he's been well below average on every team he's been on ... so you can stop blaming Don Nelson for Matt Barnes poor defensive stats.

I have no qualms saying he had a good series against Dallas.  Good for him.  Doesn't change his play on the defensive side of the ball. The guy is a similar defender from an effectiveness standpoint to Ricky Davis, who is a sieve.   Even with the Dallas series in his wallet, he also struggled down the stretch this year when Golden State needed him.

There are better options than Matt Barnes.  I'd rather have Maurice Evans than Barnes.  He doesn't struggle defensively and provides the same type of outside shooting.   I'd rather have Ricky Davis.   He offers more offensively than Barnes for the poor defensive play you are likely to see for both AND he probably takes a 1 year contract.   

On a positive note, atleast Barnes has made his turnover ratio just mediocre as opposed to awful. 

Barnes is better than Tony Allen, but a poor replacement to Posey.  He offers an outside shot, but is a downgrade in almost every other attribute.

It's true that adj. +/- is lineup dependent, so we do have to be careful.

Again, I like Posey, but I was surprised by what I found with a few clicks.

I was surprised that his +/- was worse than everyone's but Brown and Pruitt. This may have to do with who he was coming in for, but Powe, TA, BBD and House were all spelling good players as well.

I was surprised that, besides Perk and BBD, he was the only major player to be outperformed by his competition at his position. Some of this has to do with the fact that when he's in, he's guarding the opponent's best player and he's not expected to score, but it was still surprising

Most surprising was that the Celtics' defensive rating that you mention was better with Posey off the floor than on it:

With Posey: 101.9 points allowed per 100 possessions
Without Posey: 98.1 points allowed per 100 possessions

Again, I would prefer for Posey to stick around, but I don't think he's completely irreplaceable. I am wary of any player who is riding "intangibles" to the bank. I think that "intangibles" is mostly code for "older player who's a good teammate that got significant playing time on a successful team."


*our defense was 3 points per 100 possessions better with TA on the court than off the court. I wouldn't mind seeing him back with a full year's recovery from his injury.

I think part of it was that he spent more time playing on those crappy "Green Teams" that Doc trotted out there than anyone else.  As Roy already pointed out, Posey was almost always replacing one of the Big Three whereas guys like House, Cassell, Powe, Baby, and even Allen, often played alongside the Big Three. 

[timepiece33]

I think part of it was that he spent more time playing on those crappy "Green Teams" that Doc trotted out there than anyone else.  As Roy already pointed out, Posey was almost always replacing one of the Big Three whereas guys like House, Cassell, Powe, Baby, and even Allen, often played alongside the Big Three. 

If you go down a level, you'll realize that 3 of the top 4 lineups that we had in terms of WS% were with Posey in the lineup.  The issue I have is one lineup can have a drastic impact on WS% AND Posey doesn't control that point. 

If you look at individually adjusted defensive statistics, you can point to the problems being other players in that rotation from a defensive statistics standpoint.   

FYI ... Posey was in the top 5 in defensive rating in the league and the #2 player on the Celtics.  He might have been the top wing.