Author Topic: Proper business management vs win at all costs.  (Read 7143 times)

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Re: Proper business management vs win at all costs.
« Reply #15 on: July 12, 2008, 04:27:18 PM »

Offline cordobes

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People (and writers) were claiming that the only way to keep Posey was to offer him the full MLE at 5 years

Can you provide any evidence to sustain that assertion? IMO it's quite clear that what's in play is a 3year vs. a 4year deal.

  There were IMO a fair amount of articles about how Posey could get the full mid-level for 5 years, as well as a lot of posts on this blog. Are you saying that you never heard anything like that? And where's your proof that what's in play for Posey is a 3 year vs 4 year full MLE deal?

There were also lots of posts about the possibility of Posey picking up his option. Neither of them are realistic scenarios.

Of course I don't have proof, but it's what's is being disclosed in every newspaper article for the last week.

Quote
Unless someone steps up with the magic numbers for James Posey, it appears the process to sign the free agent will drag out for a while.

The Celtics [team stats] are still very much interested in retaining the top reserve, but they may need to be concerned about another club offering the contract Posey is requesting, said to be at least four years at the mid-level exception.
http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/basketball/celtics/view.bg?articleid=1106371&format=text

Re: Proper business management vs win at all costs.
« Reply #16 on: July 12, 2008, 04:44:52 PM »

Offline BballTim

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People (and writers) were claiming that the only way to keep Posey was to offer him the full MLE at 5 years

Can you provide any evidence to sustain that assertion? IMO it's quite clear that what's in play is a 3year vs. a 4year deal.

  There were IMO a fair amount of articles about how Posey could get the full mid-level for 5 years, as well as a lot of posts on this blog. Are you saying that you never heard anything like that? And where's your proof that what's in play for Posey is a 3 year vs 4 year full MLE deal?

There were also lots of posts about the possibility of Posey picking up his option. Neither of them are realistic scenarios.

Of course I don't have proof, but it's what's is being disclosed in every newspaper article for the last week.

Quote
Unless someone steps up with the magic numbers for James Posey, it appears the process to sign the free agent will drag out for a while.

The Celtics [team stats] are still very much interested in retaining the top reserve, but they may need to be concerned about another club offering the contract Posey is requesting, said to be at least four years at the mid-level exception.
http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/basketball/celtics/view.bg?articleid=1106371&format=text

  I said articles and posts, not just posts. And you just backed up your assertion about 3 year vs 4 year full MLE with an article that states that nobody's offered him the full MLE for 4 years. The only offer for him I've seen discussed is the 3 year deal the Celts offered him at $12M or so.

Re: Proper business management vs win at all costs.
« Reply #17 on: July 12, 2008, 05:18:10 PM »

Offline timepiece33

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Posey's presence is irrelevant to our flexibility under the unlikely scenario that Ainge has no budget constraints.

Please show me any scenario without a MASSIVE INCREASE in salary to players 7 through 15 on the roster where the signing of James Posey creates a financial issue in years 3 and 4?

It sounds nice to say, but it is a myth. 

Re: Proper business management vs win at all costs.
« Reply #18 on: July 12, 2008, 05:26:52 PM »

Offline cordobes

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  I said articles and posts, not just posts. And you just backed up your assertion about 3 year vs 4 year full MLE with an article that states that nobody's offered him the full MLE for 4 years. The only offer for him I've seen discussed is the 3 year deal the Celts offered him at $12M or so.

If you really want, I can find articles speculating on the possibility of Posey picking up his option.

Of course nobody offered him the full MLE for 4 years yet, if that was the case, he wouldn't be a free-agent anymore.

There are lots of reports about the Celtics (and other teams) offering him a 3 year MLE deal.

Quote
Posey, 31, is expected to get the full mid-level exception - starting with $5.6 million in 2008-09 - for three years. Sources say the Cavs might have to extend it out four years in order to land Posey.  And, therein lies the problem. Most teams don't want to give him a four-year contract, including Boston.

http://www.celticsblog.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=3590&Itemid=189

Re: Proper business management vs win at all costs.
« Reply #19 on: July 12, 2008, 05:38:03 PM »

Offline BballTim

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Posey's presence is irrelevant to our flexibility under the unlikely scenario that Ainge has no budget constraints.

Please show me any scenario without a MASSIVE INCREASE in salary to players 7 through 15 on the roster where the signing of James Posey creates a financial issue in years 3 and 4?

It sounds nice to say, but it is a myth. 

  How about financial issues in years 1 and 2?

  Nice use of the caps key, by the way.

Re: Proper business management vs win at all costs.
« Reply #20 on: July 12, 2008, 05:43:49 PM »

Online nickagneta

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Posey's presence is irrelevant to our flexibility under the unlikely scenario that Ainge has no budget constraints.

Please show me any scenario without a MASSIVE INCREASE in salary to players 7 through 15 on the roster where the signing of James Posey creates a financial issue in years 3 and 4?

It sounds nice to say, but it is a myth. 
It is not a myth an could happen. I could, if I felt like doing so by spending hours investigating the proper scenarios and checking the salaries and contracts to make sure all the numbers add up and are legal under the CBA, wite up quite more than one example showing exactly how it could affect it.

Most who don't believe in my stance, will of course, being staunch in their position, then do everything they can within 1 minute to shoot down all of my hard work and not actually look at it reasonably and objectively or with enough of an open mind to learn anything or admit they might not be right.

Unfortunately most who will make the claim of something not being possible will not spend that amount of time to disprove my claim they will only ask for proof and then when provided it shoot it down by breaking things down to the ridiculous and moving away from the original premise in the firt place.

I've attempted my part here and in other places and the above is usually what I get in return. So I'm not going to do it again and just agree to nicely disgree with you.

Re: Proper business management vs win at all costs.
« Reply #21 on: July 12, 2008, 05:49:38 PM »

Offline cordobes

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Posey's presence is irrelevant to our flexibility under the unlikely scenario that Ainge has no budget constraints.

Please show me any scenario without a MASSIVE INCREASE in salary to players 7 through 15 on the roster where the signing of James Posey creates a financial issue in years 3 and 4?

It sounds nice to say, but it is a myth. 

  How about financial issues in years 1 and 2?

 

So your position is that we shouldn't spend the MLE at all during the next 2 seasons. It's respectable, but the management and the ownership don't seem to agree with you.

Re: Proper business management vs win at all costs.
« Reply #22 on: July 12, 2008, 05:53:49 PM »

Offline cordobes

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Posey's presence is irrelevant to our flexibility under the unlikely scenario that Ainge has no budget constraints.

Please show me any scenario without a MASSIVE INCREASE in salary to players 7 through 15 on the roster where the signing of James Posey creates a financial issue in years 3 and 4?

It sounds nice to say, but it is a myth. 
It is not a myth an could happen. I could, if I felt like doing so by spending hours investigating the proper scenarios and checking the salaries and contracts to make sure all the numbers add up and are legal under the CBA, wite up quite more than one example showing exactly how it could affect it.

Most who don't believe in my stance, will of course, being staunch in their position, then do everything they can within 1 minute to shoot down all of my hard work and not actually look at it reasonably and objectively or with enough of an open mind to learn anything or admit they might not be right.

Unfortunately most who will make the claim of something not being possible will not spend that amount of time to disprove my claim they will only ask for proof and then when provided it shoot it down by breaking things down to the ridiculous and moving away from the original premise in the firt place.

I've attempted my part here and in other places and the above is usually what I get in return. So I'm not going to do it again and just agree to nicely disgree with you.

There's something very clear to me: offering Posey (or any other player) a 2/3/4 year MLE contract means that we won't be spending the MLE in the next 1/2/3 years.

I prefer the first scenario because I don't believe that we will be more competitive in 10/11 and 11/12 than in 08/09 and 09/10.

If things go wrong quickly than we expect, the only viable option will be to trade Pierce and Garnett for contracts with less length. In that case, Posey's MLE contract will not be a factor. 

Re: Proper business management vs win at all costs.
« Reply #23 on: July 12, 2008, 06:00:47 PM »

Offline timepiece33

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It is not a myth an could happen. I could, if I felt like doing so by spending hours investigating the proper scenarios and checking the salaries and contracts to make sure all the numbers add up and are legal under the CBA, wite up quite more than one example showing exactly how it could affect it.

Or you could spend minutes using this thread

http://www.celticsblog.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=3578&Itemid=189

Without drastically increasing the salaries of 7 through 15, I'm not that worried about years 3 and 4. 

If Wyc was as worried about the salary cap as some of you are, we could go with a bench of O'Bryant/Powe/Walker/Giddens/Pruitt.   

Re: Proper business management vs win at all costs.
« Reply #24 on: July 12, 2008, 06:01:31 PM »

Offline BballTim

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  I said articles and posts, not just posts. And you just backed up your assertion about 3 year vs 4 year full MLE with an article that states that nobody's offered him the full MLE for 4 years. The only offer for him I've seen discussed is the 3 year deal the Celts offered him at $12M or so.

If you really want, I can find articles speculating on the possibility of Posey picking up his option.

Of course nobody offered him the full MLE for 4 years yet, if that was the case, he wouldn't be a free-agent anymore.

There are lots of reports about the Celtics (and other teams) offering him a 3 year MLE deal.

Quote
Posey, 31, is expected to get the full mid-level exception - starting with $5.6 million in 2008-09 - for three years. Sources say the Cavs might have to extend it out four years in order to land Posey.  And, therein lies the problem. Most teams don't want to give him a four-year contract, including Boston.

http://www.celticsblog.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=3590&Itemid=189

  Fine. Have it your way. Since you don't seem to be familiar enough with the situation  to know that Posey was expected by some writers to get the full MLE for 5 years, I found you a link:

  "Posey, a key reserve for the Celtics, is expected to draw the full mid-level exception of five years and about $30 million, though the Celtics have said they consider signing him an off-season priority."

  It's from the LA times: http://www.latimes.com/sports/basketball/nba/lakers/la-sp-lakers2-2008jul02,0,4362357.story

  You'll notice, by the way, that the wording ", is expected to draw the full mid-level exception of five years and about $30 million" is remarkably similar to "is expected to get the full mid-level exception - starting with $5.6 million in 2008-09 - for three years" in your article.

  So we know that he hasn't gotten an offer of the full MLE for 5 years and we know that it's highly unlikely that he's gotten an offer for the full MLE for 4 years. We seem to know that the contract he's expected to get has dropped from 5 years to 3 years since free agency started. I'd say that so far the market seems to be agreeing with the people that were against giving him a full MLE offer for 5 years, and those who thought that 4 years was a lot are looking fairly good.

  In terms of what he'll get, it's pretty clear that he'll take a full MLE 4 year deal. If someone wants him at that price, why wouldn't they offer it? If they wait until someone else offers him that deal they'll be out of luck. The longer this drags on the less likely it is he'll get the 4 year offer.

Re: Proper business management vs win at all costs.
« Reply #25 on: July 12, 2008, 06:02:46 PM »

Offline timepiece33

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There's something very clear to me: offering Posey (or any other player) a 2/3/4 year MLE contract means that we won't be spending the MLE in the next 1/2/3 years.

That's not clear to me.  If we resign Ray Allen after year 2 or trade him, I buy that statement.  If we don't, I expect the MLE to be exercised after year 2. 

Re: Proper business management vs win at all costs.
« Reply #26 on: July 12, 2008, 06:10:02 PM »

Offline BballTim

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Posey's presence is irrelevant to our flexibility under the unlikely scenario that Ainge has no budget constraints.

Please show me any scenario without a MASSIVE INCREASE in salary to players 7 through 15 on the roster where the signing of James Posey creates a financial issue in years 3 and 4?

It sounds nice to say, but it is a myth. 

  How about financial issues in years 1 and 2?

 

So your position is that we shouldn't spend the MLE at all during the next 2 seasons. It's respectable, but the management and the ownership don't seem to agree with you.

  I'll state that A) even if we were to spend the full MLE this year we might not want to spend it all on Posey and that B) Giving all that money to Posey could preclude our using the MLE next year. You might say that management and the ownership don't seem to agree with you, but you seem to:


There's something very clear to me: offering Posey (or any other player) a 2/3/4 year MLE contract means that we won't be spending the MLE in the next 1/2/3 years.

  What if Ainge expects better FAs next year than we got this year? What if Perk has more shoulder problems and we need to spend the MLE on a center? What if we also want to extend Powe or Davis?

Re: Proper business management vs win at all costs.
« Reply #27 on: July 12, 2008, 06:16:28 PM »

Offline cordobes

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  I'll state that A) even if we were to spend the full MLE this year we might not want to spend it all on Posey and that B) Giving all that money to Posey could preclude our using the MLE next year. You might say that management and the ownership don't seem to agree with you, but you seem to:


There's something very clear to me: offering Posey (or any other player) a 2/3/4 year MLE contract means that we won't be spending the MLE in the next 1/2/3 years.

  What if Ainge expects better FAs next year than we got this year? What if Perk has more shoulder problems and we need to spend the MLE on a center? What if we also want to extend Powe or Davis?

A) The problem is that I don't see any other use of the MLE this season than can provide equal value to Posey.
B) Of course. What I'm saying is that I'd rather spend the MLE this year then next off-season, for reasons abundantly explained.

Quote
What if Ainge expects better FAs next year than we got this year?

It would be a drastic miscalculation. Next season the GPA will be 1 year older.

Quote
What if we also want to extend Powe or Davis?

Why would the spending of the MLE on Posey or any other player, this season or in the next one, have any impact in this?

Quote
What if Perk has more shoulder problems and we need to spend the MLE on a center?

Who's that center? There is no free-agent center that it's worthy the LLE, let alone the MLE.

Re: Proper business management vs win at all costs.
« Reply #28 on: July 12, 2008, 06:34:58 PM »

Offline sns0274

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I am not sure anyone is saying we shouldn't use the MLE at any point. I believe what Nick is trying to say (correct me if I am wrong Nick) The problem isn't as much spending the MLE as much as it is, what you spend it on. In a sports business model, age is just as important as the amount of money you spend. Committing the full MLE to Posey for example, in reality is a risky proposition. In sports (the business model we are all referring to) the older you get, the higher risk for injuries and rapidly declining skills. There is a chance that we could end up tying up 15-20 million for a guy that can't play. Where if you sign someone that is 25 or 26 that risk is diminished greatly, thus stabilizing your business model, improving your value, longevity and productivity.

Add to all this the fact that we have no idea that someone, anyone can't come in and have the same season this year that Posey had last. Thus freeing up more cap space and improving our flexibility at delivering a longer term and more stable product line. 

While I agree that this year, you have a very good idea what you are getting with Posey (this basically can't be argued) You can't say with any honesty what his health and skills will be years 2-4 or 2-5.(Edit)33-36 years old
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Re: Proper business management vs win at all costs.
« Reply #29 on: July 12, 2008, 06:47:38 PM »

Offline rondofan1255

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There may not be big men worth the MLE this year, but I think people are overlooking the fact that next year, or the year after that, that money that we don't lock up on Posey could be very beneficial for signings. There will probably be people we can go after, that might very well suit our needs.

However, it's a win-now situation, so it's really to me completely the management's call.. If they think the window can be longer the other way around, then so be it =P We might be able to sign someone next year, that opens our window even longer.