Darn it.
Could be the cavs. They could afford to with the 4th year since they have no long term contract.
Here's why i don't think it's the Cavs --- I truly believe its Boston (a) vs. New Orleans (f) for Posey.
It kind of boggles my mind that teams like Cleveland and Houston continue to be listed as destinations for Posey. The question not addresses by sportswriters -- or that i haven't seen -- is what is the effect of signing Posey on the teams supposedly interested in Posey. Here's my calculations (based on posted salary data at HH & SS):
A. Boston -- Signing posey to an MLE deal (along with resigning HOuse and some vet. min additions) puts us about $7.5M over the luxury tax level -- a $1M less than last year. We start next summer about $1M under the lux tax limit.
B. Cleveland --- this never gets written about --- signing Posey to an MLE deal puts them $17-20M over the luxury tax limit .... is there really any reason to think (a) they'd go that far over the lux tax limit (that's more than New York paid last year) and (b) they'd sign Posey for 4 years?
C. LA Fakers -- Signing Posey would mean paying $11M in luxury tax this year and assuming they sign Bynum for $9M (a bargain?) and Vujacic for $3M it puts them over for next summer already.
D. Houston -- Signing Big Games James takes them from being under the Lux Tax to over... a big jump for a team that has Shane Battier doing much of what Posey does.
E. Detroit --- I didn't calculate for them since (a) they have the room but (b) they're looking to reshape their roster in trades (McGrady?) so it's hard to imagine they'd sign Posey *before* doing that.
F. New Orleans --- IMO the only legitimate offer can come from N.O. Because Chris Paul's extension doesn't kick in till next year signing Posey leaves them well under the Lux Tax limit. However.... I think they'd be more reluctant than us to give a 4th year as it would cut into the pretty sizeable cap room they have when both Peja and Tyson Chandler come off the books in 2011.