Author Topic: Bogut gets 5 yr/72.5 million contract  (Read 13770 times)

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Re: Bogut gets 5 yr/72.5 million contract
« Reply #30 on: July 10, 2008, 12:05:10 AM »

Offline cordobes

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I see nothing wrong with the contract.  He will most definately be worth it if he can stay healthy

Bogut's February numbers 14.5 ppg, 10 rpg, 2.2 apg, 1.8 bpg, 43% shooting
Bogut's March numbers 15.7 ppg, 11.4 rpg, 3.6 apg, 2.1 bpg, 49% shooting
Bogut's April numbers 17.6 ppg, 11.4 rpg, 2.5 apg, 1.5 bpg, 57% shooting

Bogut had some early season rust and it took the whole Bucks team to realize just how good he could be.  I fully expect Bogut to be a double double man over the life of the extension as well as an excellent shot blocker and passer. 

You could consider that a rusty start... but you could just as easily call that sudden increase of production a contract year.

In the last two months of the 2007-2008 season, the only two Bucks that played like they cared were Andrew Bogut and Ramon Sessions. Bogut played like he cared because he wanted to cash in (which he did), while Sessions was trying to prove that he can play (which he can).

I saw a lot of Bucks games last season and it wasn't rustiness nor because he started caring. He's been the only guy playing hard in that team for a long time. He increased the production simply because he started getting more touches and closer to the basket. If used properly, he can easily be a 20/11/3/2 center who can defend next season. Who has that kind of production for a smaller contract?

Re: Bogut gets 5 yr/72.5 million contract
« Reply #31 on: July 10, 2008, 12:08:24 AM »

Offline Timbaland7

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So Andrew Bogut is 91% as good as Elton Brand?  Because that's what the contract $$$ math says.  

Of course stats don't tell the whole story, but Bogut only has to average 18/9 to be "equal" to Brand's contract.  I still think that's a stretch, but not out of the realm of possibilities.  I think he is more likely to put up 16.5/9.5.  If Elton Brand is the contract comparison, that would be worth an extension of 5yr/$65m.

So by my math... Yes Andrew Bogut just got overpaid by about $7.5m.

Re: Bogut gets 5 yr/72.5 million contract
« Reply #32 on: July 10, 2008, 12:13:56 AM »

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So Andrew Bogut is 91% as good as Elton Brand?  Because that's what the contract $$$ math says.  

Of course stats don't tell the whole story, but Bogut only has to average 18/9 to be "equal" to Brand's contract.  I still think that's a stretch, but not out of the realm of possibilities.  I think he is more likely to put up 16.5/9.5.  If Elton Brand is the contract comparison, that would be worth an extension of 5yr/$65m.

So by my math... Yes Andrew Bogut just got overpaid by about $7.5m.
I'll say it a different way

If Elton Brand was on the Bucks they'd be one of the leading contenders to win East.

With Andrew Bogut on the Bucks they're not even a certainty for a playoff spot.

That's how large the difference is between the two.

Re: Bogut gets 5 yr/72.5 million contract
« Reply #33 on: July 10, 2008, 12:18:37 AM »

Offline cordobes

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So Andrew Bogut is 91% as good as Elton Brand?  Because that's what the contract $$$ math says. 

Of course stats don't tell the whole story, but Bogut only has to average 18/9 to be "equal" to Brand's contract.  I still think that's a stretch, but not out of the realm of possibilities.  I think he is more likely to put up 16.5/9.5.  If Elton Brand is the contract comparison, that would be worth an extension of 5yr/$65m.

So by my math... Yes Andrew Bogut just got overpaid by about $7.5m.

Elton Brand signed a $82M/5 years contract.

Bogut signed a $60M/5 years contract.

Bogut is entering his prime (23 years old, 3 NBA seasons), Brand has already peaked and comes from a serious injury.


Re: Bogut gets 5 yr/72.5 million contract
« Reply #34 on: July 10, 2008, 12:19:46 AM »

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Chris Kaman is a similar player to Bogut. He signed for $52.5mil over 5 years. Yes, Bogut is ridiculously overpaid.

Bogut was a 14ppg/10rpg/2.6apg/1.7bpg with 51%FG in his 3rd season and his stats improved drastically when the team started using him.

Kaman was a 12/10/.5/1.4 at the same time after being a 9/7 and 6/6 center in his first two seasons.

Bogut is a far better passer and has more upside, IMO, including a reliable jumper. The numbers Kaman put last season, in his 5th year, were similar to those Bogut had when they started playing Sessions.

It's worth the additional $1.5M/year, I think. If anything, perhaps Kaman is underpaid. But even if you consider that Kaman is fairly payed, I have troubles seeing how a $1.5M gap qualifies as ridiculous.
Chris Kaman put up his numbers on a 50+win team that came within minutes of the Western Conference Finals. While also playing next to Elton Brand and equally ball happy guards in Sam Cassell and Cuttino Mobley plus Maggette on the wings and Wilcox/Radmanovic.

Andrew Bogut put his numbers on a miserable mid 20's win ball club that had zero inside presence and hardly any scoring options in the frontcourt.

The difference in the contracts between Kaman and Bogut is $20 million over 5 years so $4mil per season.
« Last Edit: July 10, 2008, 12:29:01 AM by Who »

Re: Bogut gets 5 yr/72.5 million contract
« Reply #35 on: July 10, 2008, 12:22:48 AM »

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So Andrew Bogut is 91% as good as Elton Brand?  Because that's what the contract $$$ math says. 

Of course stats don't tell the whole story, but Bogut only has to average 18/9 to be "equal" to Brand's contract.  I still think that's a stretch, but not out of the realm of possibilities.  I think he is more likely to put up 16.5/9.5.  If Elton Brand is the contract comparison, that would be worth an extension of 5yr/$65m.

So by my math... Yes Andrew Bogut just got overpaid by about $7.5m.

Elton Brand signed a $82M/5 years contract.

Bogut signed a $60M/5 years contract.

Bogut is entering his prime (23 years old, 3 NBA seasons), Brand has already peaked and comes from a serious injury.


Bogut signed for $72.5mil.

Re: Bogut gets 5 yr/72.5 million contract
« Reply #36 on: July 10, 2008, 12:47:35 AM »

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I feel like if the Bucks didn't pay that much, somebody would've.  It's a tough decision...
It's only his third year. He's not even a free agent this summer. Let him play another season and find out more about him. Find out whether he's worth the extra money or not. He'll be a restricted free agent in 12 months time. Then if you're still unsure make someone else sign him to that offer sheet. Don't go out of your way to sign him to an overpriced contract and don't go out of your way to give him and overpriced guaranteed contract 12 months before he ever hits the market.

There's no rush here. Offer him a fair guaranteed contract (the Kaman one being a good ballpark figure). If he accepts great, you might get a little bargain by giving him guaranteed money 12 months earlier than he would otherwise. If he doesn't, let him play out the season and he's still a restricted free agent who'll you'll retain all the options in the world to keeping.

Re: Bogut gets 5 yr/72.5 million contract
« Reply #37 on: July 10, 2008, 12:48:03 AM »

Offline cordobes

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So Andrew Bogut is 91% as good as Elton Brand?  Because that's what the contract $$$ math says. 

Of course stats don't tell the whole story, but Bogut only has to average 18/9 to be "equal" to Brand's contract.  I still think that's a stretch, but not out of the realm of possibilities.  I think he is more likely to put up 16.5/9.5.  If Elton Brand is the contract comparison, that would be worth an extension of 5yr/$65m.

So by my math... Yes Andrew Bogut just got overpaid by about $7.5m.

Elton Brand signed a $82M/5 years contract.

Bogut signed a $60M/5 years contract.

Bogut is entering his prime (23 years old, 3 NBA seasons), Brand has already peaked and comes from a serious injury.


Bogut signed for $72.5mil.

Nope, the title of the thread is misleading. It's $60M in guaranteed money, the remaining are incentives:
http://www.celticsblog.com/index.php?option=com_smf&Itemid=64&topic=21002.msg327657#msg327657
http://blogs.jsonline.com/bucks/archive/2008/07/09/bogut-bucks-agree-on-5-year-extension.aspx


If he becomes a 24/14 player that carries them to the Finals every year, he'll make the bonuses, but in that case, he's not being overpaid as well.

Also, there's no trade kicker and Milwakee is not a very attractive destination to FAs.

Re: Bogut gets 5 yr/72.5 million contract
« Reply #38 on: July 10, 2008, 12:57:01 AM »

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So Andrew Bogut is 91% as good as Elton Brand?  Because that's what the contract $$$ math says. 

Of course stats don't tell the whole story, but Bogut only has to average 18/9 to be "equal" to Brand's contract.  I still think that's a stretch, but not out of the realm of possibilities.  I think he is more likely to put up 16.5/9.5.  If Elton Brand is the contract comparison, that would be worth an extension of 5yr/$65m.

So by my math... Yes Andrew Bogut just got overpaid by about $7.5m.

Elton Brand signed a $82M/5 years contract.

Bogut signed a $60M/5 years contract.

Bogut is entering his prime (23 years old, 3 NBA seasons), Brand has already peaked and comes from a serious injury.


Bogut signed for $72.5mil.

Nope, the title of the thread is misleading. It's $60M in guaranteed money, the remaining are incentives:
http://www.celticsblog.com/index.php?option=com_smf&Itemid=64&topic=21002.msg327657#msg327657
http://blogs.jsonline.com/bucks/archive/2008/07/09/bogut-bucks-agree-on-5-year-extension.aspx


If he becomes a 24/14 player that carries them to the Finals every year, he'll make the bonuses, but in that case, he's not being overpaid as well.

Also, there's no trade kicker and Milwakee is not a very attractive destination to FAs.
Any word on what the incentives are specifically or how achievable they are?

They're usually very easy to achieve on NBA contracts. Agents don't like high bars on those deals, they avoid them.

Re: Bogut gets 5 yr/72.5 million contract
« Reply #39 on: July 10, 2008, 01:12:48 AM »

Offline cordobes

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So Andrew Bogut is 91% as good as Elton Brand?  Because that's what the contract $$$ math says. 

Of course stats don't tell the whole story, but Bogut only has to average 18/9 to be "equal" to Brand's contract.  I still think that's a stretch, but not out of the realm of possibilities.  I think he is more likely to put up 16.5/9.5.  If Elton Brand is the contract comparison, that would be worth an extension of 5yr/$65m.

So by my math... Yes Andrew Bogut just got overpaid by about $7.5m.

Elton Brand signed a $82M/5 years contract.

Bogut signed a $60M/5 years contract.

Bogut is entering his prime (23 years old, 3 NBA seasons), Brand has already peaked and comes from a serious injury.


Bogut signed for $72.5mil.

Nope, the title of the thread is misleading. It's $60M in guaranteed money, the remaining are incentives:
http://www.celticsblog.com/index.php?option=com_smf&Itemid=64&topic=21002.msg327657#msg327657
http://blogs.jsonline.com/bucks/archive/2008/07/09/bogut-bucks-agree-on-5-year-extension.aspx


If he becomes a 24/14 player that carries them to the Finals every year, he'll make the bonuses, but in that case, he's not being overpaid as well.

Also, there's no trade kicker and Milwakee is not a very attractive destination to FAs.
Any word on what the incentives are specifically or how achievable they are?

They're usually very easy to achieve on NBA contracts. Agents don't like high bars on those deals, they avoid them.

If they were likely to be achieved, they'd count as guaranteed money. I think it's pretty much the standard 25% of the player's salary in unlikely bonus that teams are allowed to offer without counting against the cap.

Also, the salary is structured flat.

Re: Bogut gets 5 yr/72.5 million contract
« Reply #40 on: July 10, 2008, 01:30:16 AM »

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Nope, the title of the thread is misleading. It's $60M in guaranteed money, the remaining are incentives:
http://www.celticsblog.com/index.php?option=com_smf&Itemid=64&topic=21002.msg327657#msg327657
http://blogs.jsonline.com/bucks/archive/2008/07/09/bogut-bucks-agree-on-5-year-extension.aspx


If he becomes a 24/14 player that carries them to the Finals every year, he'll make the bonuses, but in that case, he's not being overpaid as well.

Also, there's no trade kicker and Milwakee is not a very attractive destination to FAs.
Any word on what the incentives are specifically or how achievable they are?

They're usually very easy to achieve on NBA contracts. Agents don't like high bars on those deals, they avoid them.

If they were likely to be achieved, they'd count as guaranteed money. I think it's pretty much the standard 25% of the player's salary in unlikely bonus that teams are allowed to offer without counting against the cap.

Also, the salary is structured flat.
The highest team based incentive I've heard reported in the past has been 50 wins. Generally lower than 50 like 45 wins or a playoff spot.

Not the Finals. Not 60 games. Not 55 games.

They're achievable targets, especially the team based targets.

Considering where Milwaukee are and have been for Bogut's career I find it hard to believe his agent is going to let that team based incentive even get as high as 50 wins, it's most likely lower than that.

Individual incentives could be anything. I've never heard of anything higher than being named to an All-Star spot. Which if Bogut has that, it would be a solid target that's no easy thing to achieve.

Most individual incentives I've heard reported are health related for injury prone players like Marcus Camby .... and the one's that are statistics related are normally low because they don't want the player (1) Thinking about his financials when asked to give up some touches for the good of his team team (2) Gunning for his numbers. Statistics related incentives are normally achievable.

Just think that Larry Hughes has achieved a good chunk of incentives over the past couple seasons since signing that deal with Cleveland. They're normally easy to achieve, agents don't allow the bar to be set too high.

Hopefully all the information will come out over the next few days. I'm really interested to see what it shakes out too. I've been looking over that Bucks paper and BrewHoop.com but there doesn't seem to be any more details out there.

Re: Bogut gets 5 yr/72.5 million contract
« Reply #41 on: July 10, 2008, 01:33:01 AM »

Offline cordobes

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I feel like if the Bucks didn't pay that much, somebody would've.  It's a tough decision...
It's only his third year. He's not even a free agent this summer. Let him play another season and find out more about him. Find out whether he's worth the extra money or not. He'll be a restricted free agent in 12 months time. Then if you're still unsure make someone else sign him to that offer sheet. Don't go out of your way to sign him to an overpriced contract and don't go out of your way to give him and overpriced guaranteed contract 12 months before he ever hits the market.

There's no rush here. Offer him a fair guaranteed contract (the Kaman one being a good ballpark figure). If he accepts great, you might get a little bargain by giving him guaranteed money 12 months earlier than he would otherwise. If he doesn't, let him play out the season and he's still a restricted free agent who'll you'll retain all the options in the world to keeping.

If I was Hammond, I'd hate to allow a player like Bogut deciding to play the 09-10 season on his respectably sized QO. With so many teams clearing cap space, a couple of them will eventually miss the LeBrons&Co, and make a run at Bogut. Then I'd have to let my 25 years old and pick #1 walk for nothing or offer him a contract starting with a $14M 1st year salary and get another Redd-like contract the year before I could get under the cap. 

Re: Bogut gets 5 yr/72.5 million contract
« Reply #42 on: July 10, 2008, 01:54:33 AM »

Offline cordobes

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I don't think we'll know much more than this:

Quote
By signing Bogut now, the Bucks will not have to worry about him becoming a restricted free agent next season or an unrestricted free agent the year after that.

"The team gets a slight discount over what the market will bear," Bauman said. "It's not out of the realm that he could have gotten an Elton Brand deal next year. But Andrew gets security for a bit of a discount."

Brand left the Los Angeles Clippers for a five-year deal with the Philadelphia 76ers worth a reported $82 million in one of the major free-agent moves thus far this summer.

Bogut's contract will have a "flat" salary structure, with $12 million guaranteed in each year of the deal, rather than starting lower and increasing each year. That should allow the Bucks some salary cap flexibility in the later years of the contract.

The contract also includes team-based and individual incentives, with money to be earned for all-star appearances and other accomplishments.

But the point is that I'm pretty sure that, for example, Kaman's contract also has incentives and, probably more important, a trade kicker clause, so the comparison is unfair. And a Milwakee based team doesn't have many chances of finding a decent center unless they draft him.

Re: Bogut gets 5 yr/72.5 million contract
« Reply #43 on: July 10, 2008, 02:04:29 AM »

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But the point is that I'm pretty sure that, for example, Kaman's contract also has incentives and, probably more important, a trade kicker clause, so the comparison is unfair. And a Milwakee based team doesn't have many chances of finding a decent center unless they draft him.
Kaman's contract does have both incentives and a trade kicker. The incentives were worth 2.5mil total for 5 years so 500k per annum. His trade kicker was large, 15%.

Re: Bogut gets 5 yr/72.5 million contract
« Reply #44 on: July 10, 2008, 02:09:21 AM »

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good chunk of change for someone who hasn't done jack in the league........

No wonder the Bucks stink year after year