2009 ROY will be O J Mayo. Why? Because of where he will play and who he will play with.
Greg Oden will be playing on a team that has Brandon Roy, LaMarcus Aldredge, Travis Outlaw and Jerryd Bayless. He will be learning a new game and not be getting the calls a lot, considering he plays in the Western Conference with a lot of star bigs that will be getting the calls while he racks up the fouls. An Al Horford rookie year like 10 pts and 9 rebs is what I think is likely and anything more is just expecting to much from a guy that hasn't played ball in a year and has never played against guys that are as big, strong and talented as he is. An adjustment will be necessary for him.
Beasley in Miami, if that is where he ends up, will be the third option behind Wade and Marion. He will also have Haslam playing in front of him until he displaces him. I expect a lot from Beasley eventually but how much scoring he will do with Wade and Marion throwing up 60% of that teams shots is just a big question mark. Again an 11 pt and 7 reb year will be a year well done.
Rose stands zero chance of being ROY. There's decent talent in Chicago and with an unproven coach and the possible return of Gordon and Deng, I don't see a ton of scoring out of Rose either. He'll need to be a facilitator and if he doesn't end up with some ungodly assist numbers, he stands little chance of winning the award.
That leaves Mayo who will be playing alongside Rudy Gay and no one else. Mayo will be jacking up tons of shots as will Gay. They will have no one underneath rebounding so Mayo just might pick up a surprising amount of rebounds simply because no one else will be doing it. Mayo could very well go 20/4/4 and with those numbers he's ROY. And it's only because he will be option 1 or 1A and, like last year with Seattle, he will put up numbers because that is what Memphis will be all about. Putting up numbers not wins.