Draft Tomic!

[winsomme]

okay, i think i have my draft strategy figured out.

the question is how to maximize the value of the #30 pick.

the first way is to actually draft a player that you like and/or can use. so for me, if a Courtney Lee or a Walker or a Batum is on the table at 30, then i think you just take them.

if not, you have to figure out how to increase the value, and one way to do that is to target someone that another team might have its sights on.

Chad Ford is reporting that Portland covets both Batum and Tomic and may have grabbed the #27 to take Batum and then use #33 to take Tomic. so if there is nobody on the table at #30 that we want outright, i say take Tomic.

Portland is loaded with talent and picks. so if they really do want Tomic, Danny could leverage him to go after one of Portlands wings (Outlaw, Fernandez, Webster, Batum (if they took him), etc....or a combo of picks (maybe the #33 this year and another next year, etc..).  this way we could grab one of the other wings in the early second round where it would make more sense to take them (a Giddens, a Weems, a Mbah a Moute, etc) and we also get another asset for the future.

worst case scenario (if POR is not that interested in Tomic), we get an INTL prospect that is a legit 7-footer that we can let develop oversees for a couple of years and see if he turns into the player many think he is capable of  being.

and best case scenario, we get a prospect at the right price plus another future asset or we get a player that is already further along in development like a Rudy Fernandez...

[Chris]

I think this is absolutely a best case scenario. 

If this were to happen, I wonder if they could even find a way to turn Scalabrine into Steve Blake.

Perhaps it would be #30, Scalabrine and Davis (or Powe) for #33 and Steve Blake.

[winsomme]

I think this is absolutely a best case scenario. 

If this were to happen, I wonder if they could even find a way to turn Scalabrine into Steve Blake.

Perhaps it would be #30, Scalabrine and Davis (or Powe) for #33 and Steve Blake.

yeah, moving Scalabrine's contract could definitely also be a benefit of a pick like this. not that i don't like Scals or that he is hugely overpaid, but freeing up money has its advantages.

and the biggest thing for me is that Portland is loaded with stuff and is not going to be able to use it all. i mean there is no way that they can use three second round picks...especially after taking two first rounders...

maybe we could target their higher first rounder that they are apparently shopping...

[cordobes]

I don't know... I personally don't think much of Tomic as a player. And he's in conversations with some Greek and Israelis clubs. If he signs a 5-year contract with no buyout clause, it'll be a fairly useless asset. I doubt that Tomic is that interested in playing for less than a $1M/year. 

[Chris]

I don't know... I personally don't think much of Tomic as a player. And he's in conversations with some Greek and Israelis clubs. If he signs a 5-year contract with no buyout clause, it'll be a fairly useless asset. I doubt that Tomic is that interested in playing for less than a $1M/year. 

reread the OP.  He didn't want Tomic for the C's, he wanted to poach him so that they could get assets from Portland who reportedly want him.

[cordobes]

I don't know... I personally don't think much of Tomic as a player. And he's in conversations with some Greek and Israelis clubs. If he signs a 5-year contract with no buyout clause, it'll be a fairly useless asset. I doubt that Tomic is that interested in playing for less than a $1M/year. 

reread the OP.  He didn't want Tomic for the C's, he wanted to poach him so that they could get assets from Portland who reportedly want him.

Yeah, I understood, but why would Portland want the rights for a player who won't join them in, say, the next 5 years? That's why they want to draft him with the #33.

[Chris]

I don't know... I personally don't think much of Tomic as a player. And he's in conversations with some Greek and Israelis clubs. If he signs a 5-year contract with no buyout clause, it'll be a fairly useless asset. I doubt that Tomic is that interested in playing for less than a $1M/year. 

reread the OP.  He didn't want Tomic for the C's, he wanted to poach him so that they could get assets from Portland who reportedly want him.

Yeah, I understood, but why would Portland want the rights for a player who won't join them in, say, the next 5 years? That's why they want to draft him with the #33.

Its a fair point.

[winsomme]

I don't know... I personally don't think much of Tomic as a player. And he's in conversations with some Greek and Israelis clubs. If he signs a 5-year contract with no buyout clause, it'll be a fairly useless asset. I doubt that Tomic is that interested in playing for less than a $1M/year. 

reread the OP.  He didn't want Tomic for the C's, he wanted to poach him so that they could get assets from Portland who reportedly want him.

Yeah, I understood, but why would Portland want the rights for a player who won't join them in, say, the next 5 years? That's why they want to draft him with the #33.

depends on what kind of buyout he would have....right now it (his contract situation) is not that bad.

[Chris]

I don't know... I personally don't think much of Tomic as a player. And he's in conversations with some Greek and Israelis clubs. If he signs a 5-year contract with no buyout clause, it'll be a fairly useless asset. I doubt that Tomic is that interested in playing for less than a $1M/year. 

reread the OP.  He didn't want Tomic for the C's, he wanted to poach him so that they could get assets from Portland who reportedly want him.

Yeah, I understood, but why would Portland want the rights for a player who won't join them in, say, the next 5 years? That's why they want to draft him with the #33.

depends on what kind of buyout he would have....right now it's not that bad.

I suppose it also depends on whether he wants to actually play in the NBA. 

Lately there have been a lot of guys who have chosen to stay in Europe for lots of reasons.  It's not just money.  Some of them want to be "the man" rather than just another guy in the NBA.  Some of them want to be closer to home and their family.  And yes, some like the money they make in Europe.

But at the same time, some of them dream of playing in the NBA, and will take the lower salary (at least at first) in order to try to prove themselves on the biggest stage.

I have no idea what Tomic wants...but I think we need to be careful not to assume that all European players are the same and want the same thing.

[cordobes]

I don't know... I personally don't think much of Tomic as a player. And he's in conversations with some Greek and Israelis clubs. If he signs a 5-year contract with no buyout clause, it'll be a fairly useless asset. I doubt that Tomic is that interested in playing for less than a $1M/year. 

reread the OP.  He didn't want Tomic for the C's, he wanted to poach him so that they could get assets from Portland who reportedly want him.

Yeah, I understood, but why would Portland want the rights for a player who won't join them in, say, the next 5 years? That's why they want to draft him with the #33.

depends on what kind of buyout he would have....right now it's not that bad.

My point is not about the buyout, but the salary. Why hasn't Splitter joined the Spurs this off-season? Anyway, this is just speculation, maybe Tomic really wants to play in the NBA and he doesn't mind to take a paycut (not a paycut on his current salary, but the one he can be making next season in a rich club).

[winsomme]

I don't know... I personally don't think much of Tomic as a player. And he's in conversations with some Greek and Israelis clubs. If he signs a 5-year contract with no buyout clause, it'll be a fairly useless asset. I doubt that Tomic is that interested in playing for less than a $1M/year. 

reread the OP.  He didn't want Tomic for the C's, he wanted to poach him so that they could get assets from Portland who reportedly want him.

Yeah, I understood, but why would Portland want the rights for a player who won't join them in, say, the next 5 years? That's why they want to draft him with the #33.

depends on what kind of buyout he would have....right now it's not that bad.

My point is not about the buyout, but the salary. Why hasn't Splitter joined the Spurs this off-season? Anyway, this is just speculation, maybe Tomic really wants to play in the NBA and he doesn't mind to take a paycut (not a paycut on his current salary, but the one he can be making next season in a rich club).

right because he could have opted out of the draft if he really didn't want to play here...

[Andy Jick]

i think danny is becoming a much feared GM in the league...i like the scenario laid out by the original poster and believe danny might be able to make something happen here.

[cordobes]

I don't know... I personally don't think much of Tomic as a player. And he's in conversations with some Greek and Israelis clubs. If he signs a 5-year contract with no buyout clause, it'll be a fairly useless asset. I doubt that Tomic is that interested in playing for less than a $1M/year. 

reread the OP.  He didn't want Tomic for the C's, he wanted to poach him so that they could get assets from Portland who reportedly want him.

Yeah, I understood, but why would Portland want the rights for a player who won't join them in, say, the next 5 years? That's why they want to draft him with the #33.

depends on what kind of buyout he would have....right now it's not that bad.

My point is not about the buyout, but the salary. Why hasn't Splitter joined the Spurs this off-season? Anyway, this is just speculation, maybe Tomic really wants to play in the NBA and he doesn't mind to take a paycut (not a paycut on his current salary, but the one he can be making next season in a rich club).

right because he could have opted out of the draft if he really didn't want to play here...

Humm... I think it's possible he wants to play in the NBA, but I won't read much in the decision to stay in the draft. Financially, it makes sense to him, as it keeps his options open, because it's his last year in Zagreb. By staying in the draft, he can choose between joining the NBA immediately, not having to pay for a buyout, or stay in Europe playing for a bigger club with a more attractive contract.

[winsomme]

I don't know... I personally don't think much of Tomic as a player. And he's in conversations with some Greek and Israelis clubs. If he signs a 5-year contract with no buyout clause, it'll be a fairly useless asset. I doubt that Tomic is that interested in playing for less than a $1M/year. 

reread the OP.  He didn't want Tomic for the C's, he wanted to poach him so that they could get assets from Portland who reportedly want him.

Yeah, I understood, but why would Portland want the rights for a player who won't join them in, say, the next 5 years? That's why they want to draft him with the #33.

depends on what kind of buyout he would have....right now it's not that bad.

My point is not about the buyout, but the salary. Why hasn't Splitter joined the Spurs this off-season? Anyway, this is just speculation, maybe Tomic really wants to play in the NBA and he doesn't mind to take a paycut (not a paycut on his current salary, but the one he can be making next season in a rich club).

right because he could have opted out of the draft if he really didn't want to play here...

Humm... I think it's possible he wants to play in the NBA, but I won't read much in the decision to stay in the draft. Financially, it makes sense to him, as it keeps his options open, because it's his last year in Zagreb. By staying in the draft, he can choose between joining the NBA immediately, not having to pay for a buyout, or stay in Europe playing for a bigger club with a more attractive contract.

the thing is not taking a prospect because he might pull a Splitter is a concern, but it's one that you have to worry about with basically all INTL prospects - especially one's taken low in the first round due to the salar structure.....but unless you are going to not draft any INTL guys there, i don't think you can worry about it too much.

i mean, one of the strategies mentioned in a couple articles recently (including the Spears column) was picking and INTL player to let him develop oversees for a couple of years. so unless that strategy has somehow become unfeasible across the board, i don't think it should be the deciding factor to not take Tomic (for example).

you could apply the same concern to Portland taking Batum with the #27 pick. i mean, that is not going to be a very lucrative contract. i'm sure he could make much more money playing oversees. why is Batum any more likely to come to the NBA than Tomic?

so for me, the deciding factor -  if there isn't someone at 30 that Danny really likes or that may have slid - would not be worrying about him staying oversees (that is possible with just about any INLT prospect), but how much he thinks a GM like Pritchard really covets him...

otherwise, you are just going to end up with a prospect that you don't really need, you don't really like and you are going to give a long contract to....is that really worse than taking an INTL player that might not come to the States?

[cordobes]

i mean, one of the strategies mentioned in a couple articles recently (including the Spears column) was picking and INTL player to let him develop oversees for a couple of years. so unless that strategy has somehow become unfeasible across the board, i don't think it should be the deciding factor to not take Tomic (for example).

you could apply the same concern to Portland taking Batum with the #27 pick. i mean, that is not going to be a very lucrative contract. i'm sure he could make much more money playing oversees. why is Batum any more likely to come to the NBA than Tomic?

I think this is the point winsomme: the strategy is still feasible but not with every pick - especially not with late 1st picks.

Via DX:

Ibaka Wants to Go Second Round

An email from Serge Ibaka’s agent Justin Zanik to every NBA team circulated on Wednesday evening, which may drop his client’s stock into the 2nd round. Ibaka reportedly has an attractive four year contract offer from two separate ACB teams in Spain, which would provide him with a great deal of financial security, and also allow him to develop in a very comfortable environment. The contracts would have an NBA out after two seasons, but with a considerable buyout. Should Ibaka be drafted in the late first round, according to Zanik, “it would be a great burden to him to make the transition to the NBA if he is locked into the first round salary scale.”

I can perfectly see the same happening with Tomic agent. He may well be saying the teams: "you draft the kid in the 1st round and the next thing I'm on the phone with Maccabi/Oly/Telekom to talk about that 5year no-buyout clause contract. You draft him in the second round, and we can talk... he really wants to prove himself here.."

(I'm not sure Batum could make much more money. He certainly can't do as much money as Tomic in Europe. Batum is still very young and raw, big european teams don't like to give many minutes to this kind of players; Tomic is a ready player - the only reason he's unready to the NBA is the lack of body strength).