Owe alot of thanks to Seattle for #17- Ainge wanted Swift instead of Jefferson

[Roy Hobbs]

I love that we won a title. That doesn't mean that Ray Allen at this stage of his career and with his contract probably wasn't worth a #5 pick

I don't know, man.  When Chris Wallace is thinking of trading the #5 for David Lee, it makes the value we got last year look that much better.

[winsomme]

yeah, i don't think people fully take into account how desperate teams are to move salary these days. i mean, it is happening ALL over the place. the Kurt Thomas one has to be the most absurd example. they had to GIVE picks to Seattle for them to take Kurt Thomas who actually is a decent player...

look at the scramble of teams to unload payroll to get in on the 2010 FA sweepstakes....

expiring contracts is a HUGE commodity in today's NBA.

If all expiring contracts were huge commodities, the Suns would of gotten something good for Kurt Thomas. They got nothing. In fact they had to give up 2 first rounders to have someone take him. So they actually got negative value for the expiring contract. Expiring contracts CAN be valuable. For example if Memphis had been willing to trade Gasol a yr earlier, PJ Brown's expiring contract would have paid off. If Minny decides to keep KG one yr longer than maybe Raef's contract is better than Ratliff. Who knows. Marbury's contact this yr? is it valuable? maybe. Maybe not.

also, expiring contract have dual advantages. for the Celtics, it was to get a guy like KG. but for Minny, it was LETTING the deal expire....that was the value for them.

[johnnyrondo]

I love that we won a title. That doesn't mean that Ray Allen at this stage of his career and with his contract probably wasn't worth a #5 pick

I don't know, man.  When Chris Wallace is thinking of trading the #5 for David Lee, it makes the value we got last year look that much better.

Yeah, but Chris Wallace would trade the #1 pick for Sara Lee, so that's not saying much

[Chris]

I love that we won a title. That doesn't mean that Ray Allen at this stage of his career and with his contract probably wasn't worth a #5 pick

I don't know, man.  When Chris Wallace is thinking of trading the #5 for David Lee, it makes the value we got last year look that much better.

Well, that is kind of like saying that Danny traded the #6 pick for Sebastian Telfair.

It is a cap trade (well, actually, it is a "save cash for our cheap owner" trade...but still the same idea).

[cdif911]

I've always thought Danny was overrated on draft day. To change course now, because we won the championship, would be hypocritical and fickle.

gotta respectfully disagree on that one, Danny gets ridiculous value out of his picks, smokescreen or not, look at where the guys he picks are drafted related to the rest of their respective drafts and 9 times out of 10, he got guys who have stuck on drafted behind guys who are out of the league

[BballTim]

The fact that Ratliff's contract expired a yr earlier was an added bonus. Expiring contracts are hit or miss. All depends about timing. Raef's contract is expiring now. See how that works.

  But the timing was there were players like Garnett and Gasol rumored to be on the market last summer, so the timing for Ratliff's contract expiring was probably better than Raef's.

 

And you use the Seattle/Phoenix trade to show that expiring contracts are valuable? Phoenix had to trade two first rounders for Seattle to agree to take the expiring contract. Did you think it was the other way around? And Kurt Thomas was a much better player/asset than Ratliff. Most teams get nothing for their expiring contract.

  You misunderstood what I said. Expiring contracts assets when they are used to trade for longer contracts. Theo for Raef netted Portland a pick, Theo for KG netted us KG. Phoenix wasn't willing to trade Thomas's contract for longer contracts, so it was not an asset for them. Since they weren't going to take back contracts in a trade, almost no teams had the means to trade for him. Seattle traded a trade exception for him so they were getting Thomas for free and the Suns were losing a good player in order to save money. But in order to get Seattle to take Thomas's $8M contract off their hands they had to surrender 2 1st round draft picks. See?

  We didn't save $8M when we traded Raef for Theo, we saved $14M. In addition to saving $14M in salary we got Theo's contract, which we could turn around and trade for  a max contract player. So we made out on both ends of the deal. Now do you see why it was a good trade?

Ainge was willing to trade Al Jefferson. No other team was offering a young player close to his level for KG or anybody for that matter. Trust me ROY Brandon Roy and expiring contract in 1 yr Raef had more value than Telfair and Ratliff.

  First of all, there was no way of knowing that whoever was available in the draft at #6 would be the ROY. And Brandon's a little injury prone so there was that risk too. And I don't think it's a given that Raef and Roy had as much value as Theo. Again, if $8M is worth Kurt Thomas and 2 1st round picks, what's $14M worth? How do you know that the owner would even agree to a trade that would bring back that much more in salary?

I love that we won a title. That doesn't mean that Ray Allen at this stage of his career and with his contract probably wasn't worth a #5 pick. But I stand by my point that we didn't get Allen based on Ainge's drafting, but based on our record last season. Delonte West wasn't a deal breaker and neither was Gomes. West was a first rounder. If we had offered a future first instead of Delonte I'm thinking Presti would have preferred that.

  If we'd have offered a future 1st instead of West we might not have had enough to get Garnett because we can only trade so many picks. And, as a matter of fact, Gomes was a deal breaker. Minny wouldn't do the deal without him being added to the package. Since you're wrong about Gomes, how do you know you're right about West?

[winsomme]

No, this one is pretty much confirmed as true.  Not only did Danny want Swift on draft night, but it's been reported that he contacted Seattle numerous times about him, including after we drafted Gerald Green, and in last year's discussions involving Ray Allen.

Danny really liked Swift, and would have taken him.  Of course, we have no idea if Danny's faith in Swift was founded, because he can't stay healthy.

what exactly is confirmed as "true"?

Danny liking Swift doesn't mean he would have taken him over Big Al because Big Al ALSO was not supposed to be there when we picked....

Danny wanting to draft Swift also doesn't confirm anything because we have no idea of how they viewed the relative value of either.

i have never seen a report that stacked up Swift vs Big Al. in fact, the surprise was that Big Al slipped to us....

The rumors pre-draft were that we loved Swift first, and Big Al second.  Everyone knew this.  It wasn't a shock when we chose Big Al, but it was clear to pundits at the time that he was the second choice.

Conveniently, now, people want to act like the Swift choice was a "smoke screen", despite Danny's purported second choice (Big Al) being the player we actually took.  It's not much of a "smoke screen" when you take one of the players everyone had been linking you to for weeks (much like happened the year before, where Ainge's desire for Marcus Banks was well known by everyone).

Why all the revisionist history?  Danny liked a player better than Big Al.  Who knows -- maybe Swift justified Danny's infatuation, and only hasn't reached his potential due to injuries.  It's no way a slight against Danny, but it certainly does show that sometimes luck plays a big factor in successful drafting.

Anyway, here's how Steve Bulpett described it immediately after the draft:

Yeah, the Celtics got one of the guys they'd targeted with the 15th pick.

But that didn't stop Danny Ainge from spending much of yesterday trying to move up to assure himself of his fondest wish.

The Celts offered No. 15 and either 24 or 25 to get up for high school 7-footer Robert Swift. Managing partner Wyc Grousbeck was even willing to part with cash to sweeten the deal. But all of that wasn't enough to get it done.

When clubs ahead asked for 15 and Jiri Welsch, the conversations ended.

So the Celtics opened their arms and took 19-year-old power forward Al Jefferson at 15.
...
`There were deal possibilities,'' said Ainge, ``but as it unfolded and it looked like we were going to get Jefferson or Swift - those were the two guys we targeted as the top big guys - then we didn't really want to pay the price to do anything different.

``We felt like we had to get one of those two guys, Swift or Jefferson, and that's where the contingencies were built. But just a combination of picks wasn't going to do it. It would have had to be a player. Teams had interest in Jiri, and we didn't want to make that sacrifice. We think Jiri is better than a lot of the guys that were being drafted from 5-10.''

so you're saying that Danny doesn't use smokescreens....or that GMs in general don't use smoke screens.....?

i think you are the one engaging in revisionist history here....

the fact is that Big Al was supposed to be off the board at 15. ironically, the rumors were that SEATTLE was the team that wanted him.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/draft2004/news/story?id=1826621

as you reported, Danny liked both players and seemed comfortable taking either. what he would have done if they were both on the board at #15 is total speculation on your part.

Um... if seattle wanted jefferson, then they would have picked him instead of swift. so that doesn't make any sense.
also, He quoted a reliable source saying that the celtics were willing to trade up to get swift.
End of story. You fail.

first, that's my whole point....the fact that Seattle DIDN'T take Jefferson even though they were "reported" to love him....hello!! They must not have wanted him, even though that was what was being "reported"...at least not relative to Swift.

second, are you really saying that ESPN is not a reliable source?

[BballTim]

yeah, i don't think people fully take into account how desperate teams are to move salary these days. i mean, it is happening ALL over the place. the Kurt Thomas one has to be the most absurd example. they had to GIVE picks to Seattle for them to take Kurt Thomas who actually is a decent player...

look at the scramble of teams to unload payroll to get in on the 2010 FA sweepstakes....

expiring contracts is a HUGE commodity in today's NBA.

If all expiring contracts were huge commodities, the Suns would of gotten something good for Kurt Thomas. They got nothing. In fact they had to give up 2 first rounders to have someone take him. So they actually got negative value for the expiring contract. Expiring contracts CAN be valuable. For example if Memphis had been willing to trade Gasol a yr earlier, PJ Brown's expiring contract would have paid off. If Minny decides to keep KG one yr longer than maybe Raef's contract is better than Ratliff. Who knows. Marbury's contact this yr? is it valuable? maybe. Maybe not.

  Generally, when you trade an expiring contract for a player you're absorbing future salary. That has value, either in the player you take (like KG or Gasol) or in what you're given to absorb the salary (usually draft picks). This was actually a reverse situation. Seattle traded a trade exception for the expiring contract, so the team with the expiring contract was dumping salary, not absorbing it. It's the same concept though. And, as you mention with PJ, if you want to trade an expiring salary timing is everything. If Ainge hadn't gotten KG he would have gotten Gasol, or he might have gotten Marion.

[Birdbrain]

I think Danny has even admitted to getting lucky. I seem to recal him talking about "best player available" drafting and mentioning how Portland passed on Al Jefferson, b/c they had Zach Randolph and drafted Telfair instead. Then when they had the opportunity to draft Chris Paul, b/c they had Telfair they traded that pick for M. Webster. I believe Danny would of drafted either Swift or Telfair over Jefferson, but got lucky that both were off the board.

Personally if not for that bit of luck, Ainge's drafting ability has been pretty eh. I know that Ratliff's contract expired one yr earlier than Raef's but Telfair was never worth a high lottery pick (Brandon Roy). Who were we bidding against? No one wanted Telfair. Ainge thought Telfair was going to be the next Chris Paul (with the rule changes).People credit Ainge's drafting with getting us Ray Allen and KG, but to be honest we got Allen by sucking last year and overpaying a little with a top 5 pick. Al Jefferson was the only player that Ainge drafted that helped us get either of those two(and he was because of luck). Between all those years of us sucking, us having two high lottery picks the past two yrs, and future first rounders we traded, we should of had enough to get KG and Allen. It wasn't because Danny was picking all these diamonds year after year. He's missed more than he's hit imo. Obviously there are much worse GM's out there, but that's not the point. Getting a bench for this past year, I do give Danny credit for, but Danny isn't a great on draft day. Throw in a Monta Ellis or a Josh Howard or a Brandon Roy and I'd feel a little differently. I just think Ainge is overrated on draft day.

If Seattle had agreed to give us Swift if we gave them Rondo, that would have been awful.

I couldn't disagree with you more and I sense an anti-Danny bias. Seriously. Why would anyone be anti-Danny these days? Geez. I guess there is always someone you can't please.   

I've always thought Danny was overrated on draft day. To change course now, because we won the championship, would be hypocritical and fickle.

Yeah you continue right along with this type of thinking.  Eventually he'll make a bad pick and then you can say you were right.  Of course you were wrong every other time.  Oh and Telfair trade for 1,000,000,000,0000 time was done to get ride of Raef's contract.  Ainge thought he would be the next Chris Paul?  You actually typed that and believe that?  Is there a quote to back this up or are you just making things up as you go?

And no matter how times you tell yourself that Danny wanted Swift over Al won't make it come true.  You don't believe there are just a few GMs that are made to look stupid (Seattle's GM for example) that might leak a story about Danny getting lucky and that he really wanted Swift.. blah blah..  Danny is the master and you guys would do yourself a great service admitting that and moving on.  We'll except late party crashers but, please hold the revisionism unless you have facts to support it.

[oldmanspeaks]

Be fair to both Danny and Swift. Swift had the potential to be that rare quality-an elite center. In between his injuries he showed some amazing skill. It is just unlucky that his body self-destructed. That sometimes happens to big men. Even with all his injuries, I won't mind him on the Celtics today.

[johnnyrondo]

I think Danny has even admitted to getting lucky. I seem to recal him talking about "best player available" drafting and mentioning how Portland passed on Al Jefferson, b/c they had Zach Randolph and drafted Telfair instead. Then when they had the opportunity to draft Chris Paul, b/c they had Telfair they traded that pick for M. Webster. I believe Danny would of drafted either Swift or Telfair over Jefferson, but got lucky that both were off the board.

Personally if not for that bit of luck, Ainge's drafting ability has been pretty eh. I know that Ratliff's contract expired one yr earlier than Raef's but Telfair was never worth a high lottery pick (Brandon Roy). Who were we bidding against? No one wanted Telfair. Ainge thought Telfair was going to be the next Chris Paul (with the rule changes).People credit Ainge's drafting with getting us Ray Allen and KG, but to be honest we got Allen by sucking last year and overpaying a little with a top 5 pick. Al Jefferson was the only player that Ainge drafted that helped us get either of those two(and he was because of luck). Between all those years of us sucking, us having two high lottery picks the past two yrs, and future first rounders we traded, we should of had enough to get KG and Allen. It wasn't because Danny was picking all these diamonds year after year. He's missed more than he's hit imo. Obviously there are much worse GM's out there, but that's not the point. Getting a bench for this past year, I do give Danny credit for, but Danny isn't a great on draft day. Throw in a Monta Ellis or a Josh Howard or a Brandon Roy and I'd feel a little differently. I just think Ainge is overrated on draft day.

If Seattle had agreed to give us Swift if we gave them Rondo, that would have been awful.

I couldn't disagree with you more and I sense an anti-Danny bias. Seriously. Why would anyone be anti-Danny these days? Geez. I guess there is always someone you can't please.   

I've always thought Danny was overrated on draft day. To change course now, because we won the championship, would be hypocritical and fickle.

Yeah you continue right along with this type of thinking.  Eventually he'll make a bad pick and then you can say you were right.  Of course you were wrong every other time.  Oh and Telfair trade for 1,000,000,000,0000 time was done to get ride of Raef's contract.  Ainge thought he would be the next Chris Paul?  You actually typed that and believe that?  Is there a quote to back this up or are you just making things up as you go?

And no matter how times you tell yourself that Danny wanted Swift over Al won't make it come true.  You don't believe there are just a few GMs that are made to look stupid (Seattle's GM for example) that might leak a story about Danny getting lucky and that he really wanted Swift.. blah blah..  Danny is the master and you guys would do yourself a great service admitting that and moving on.  We'll except late party crashers but, please hold the revisionism unless you have facts to support it.

What are you 12? Can you be hanging any harder from Danny's jock? Danny was wrong with his evaluation of Telfair and Swift (though w/out the injuries who knows is Swift is a bust or not). Danny was lucky to settle for Jefferson, but smart on his part not to pass on him. If you want to say that "Danny is the master." That's fine. You are entitled to your opinion. Imo, Red was a master. Danny is so so. That's my opinion and I'm entitled to it.

[Timdawgg]

If we are going with all hypothetical, who is to say if We drafted Swift and resides in Boston, he doesnt get injured. Maybe the strength & condition coach has a different effect on Swift or he doesn't end up in the wrong place at the wrong time and get hurt. When healthy, Swift seems to show flashes that he could be pretty solid and could be putting up Big Al type numbers. You could even vouch that a legit 7 footer he could have been more valuable and we could have kept someone like gomes in the big trade still...it is all speculation.

[winsomme]

I think Danny has even admitted to getting lucky. I seem to recal him talking about "best player available" drafting and mentioning how Portland passed on Al Jefferson, b/c they had Zach Randolph and drafted Telfair instead. Then when they had the opportunity to draft Chris Paul, b/c they had Telfair they traded that pick for M. Webster. I believe Danny would of drafted either Swift or Telfair over Jefferson, but got lucky that both were off the board.

Personally if not for that bit of luck, Ainge's drafting ability has been pretty eh. I know that Ratliff's contract expired one yr earlier than Raef's but Telfair was never worth a high lottery pick (Brandon Roy). Who were we bidding against? No one wanted Telfair. Ainge thought Telfair was going to be the next Chris Paul (with the rule changes).People credit Ainge's drafting with getting us Ray Allen and KG, but to be honest we got Allen by sucking last year and overpaying a little with a top 5 pick. Al Jefferson was the only player that Ainge drafted that helped us get either of those two(and he was because of luck). Between all those years of us sucking, us having two high lottery picks the past two yrs, and future first rounders we traded, we should of had enough to get KG and Allen. It wasn't because Danny was picking all these diamonds year after year. He's missed more than he's hit imo. Obviously there are much worse GM's out there, but that's not the point. Getting a bench for this past year, I do give Danny credit for, but Danny isn't a great on draft day. Throw in a Monta Ellis or a Josh Howard or a Brandon Roy and I'd feel a little differently. I just think Ainge is overrated on draft day.

If Seattle had agreed to give us Swift if we gave them Rondo, that would have been awful.

I couldn't disagree with you more and I sense an anti-Danny bias. Seriously. Why would anyone be anti-Danny these days? Geez. I guess there is always someone you can't please.   

I've always thought Danny was overrated on draft day. To change course now, because we won the championship, would be hypocritical and fickle.

Yeah you continue right along with this type of thinking.  Eventually he'll make a bad pick and then you can say you were right.  Of course you were wrong every other time.  Oh and Telfair trade for 1,000,000,000,0000 time was done to get ride of Raef's contract.  Ainge thought he would be the next Chris Paul?  You actually typed that and believe that?  Is there a quote to back this up or are you just making things up as you go?

And no matter how times you tell yourself that Danny wanted Swift over Al won't make it come true.  You don't believe there are just a few GMs that are made to look stupid (Seattle's GM for example) that might leak a story about Danny getting lucky and that he really wanted Swift.. blah blah..  Danny is the master and you guys would do yourself a great service admitting that and moving on.  We'll except late party crashers but, please hold the revisionism unless you have facts to support it.

What are you 12? Can you be hanging any harder from Danny's jock? Danny was wrong with his evaluation of Telfair and Swift (though w/out the injuries who knows is Swift is a bust or not). Danny was lucky to settle for Jefferson, but smart on his part not to pass on him. If you want to say that "Danny is the master." That's fine. You are entitled to your opinion. Imo, Red was a master. Danny is so so. That's my opinion and I'm entitled to it.

Danny just got a couple of trophies that say otherwise.

[Birdbrain]

I think Danny has even admitted to getting lucky. I seem to recal him talking about "best player available" drafting and mentioning how Portland passed on Al Jefferson, b/c they had Zach Randolph and drafted Telfair instead. Then when they had the opportunity to draft Chris Paul, b/c they had Telfair they traded that pick for M. Webster. I believe Danny would of drafted either Swift or Telfair over Jefferson, but got lucky that both were off the board.

Personally if not for that bit of luck, Ainge's drafting ability has been pretty eh. I know that Ratliff's contract expired one yr earlier than Raef's but Telfair was never worth a high lottery pick (Brandon Roy). Who were we bidding against? No one wanted Telfair. Ainge thought Telfair was going to be the next Chris Paul (with the rule changes).People credit Ainge's drafting with getting us Ray Allen and KG, but to be honest we got Allen by sucking last year and overpaying a little with a top 5 pick. Al Jefferson was the only player that Ainge drafted that helped us get either of those two(and he was because of luck). Between all those years of us sucking, us having two high lottery picks the past two yrs, and future first rounders we traded, we should of had enough to get KG and Allen. It wasn't because Danny was picking all these diamonds year after year. He's missed more than he's hit imo. Obviously there are much worse GM's out there, but that's not the point. Getting a bench for this past year, I do give Danny credit for, but Danny isn't a great on draft day. Throw in a Monta Ellis or a Josh Howard or a Brandon Roy and I'd feel a little differently. I just think Ainge is overrated on draft day.

If Seattle had agreed to give us Swift if we gave them Rondo, that would have been awful.

I couldn't disagree with you more and I sense an anti-Danny bias. Seriously. Why would anyone be anti-Danny these days? Geez. I guess there is always someone you can't please.   

I've always thought Danny was overrated on draft day. To change course now, because we won the championship, would be hypocritical and fickle.

Yeah you continue right along with this type of thinking.  Eventually he'll make a bad pick and then you can say you were right.  Of course you were wrong every other time.  Oh and Telfair trade for 1,000,000,000,0000 time was done to get ride of Raef's contract.  Ainge thought he would be the next Chris Paul?  You actually typed that and believe that?  Is there a quote to back this up or are you just making things up as you go?

And no matter how times you tell yourself that Danny wanted Swift over Al won't make it come true.  You don't believe there are just a few GMs that are made to look stupid (Seattle's GM for example) that might leak a story about Danny getting lucky and that he really wanted Swift.. blah blah..  Danny is the master and you guys would do yourself a great service admitting that and moving on.  We'll except late party crashers but, please hold the revisionism unless you have facts to support it.

What are you 12? Can you be hanging any harder from Danny's jock? Danny was wrong with his evaluation of Telfair and Swift (though w/out the injuries who knows is Swift is a bust or not). Danny was lucky to settle for Jefferson, but smart on his part not to pass on him. If you want to say that "Danny is the master." That's fine. You are entitled to your opinion. Imo, Red was a master. Danny is so so. That's my opinion and I'm entitled to it.

I see I'm 12 but, I'm hanging from Danny's Jock?  Interesting so the C's don't draft Swift and they got lucky?  How does this makes sense?  You have no proof of what you are saying and the fact that you said Danny thought Telfair would be Chris Paul when Chris Paul wasn't even Chris Paul yet has me questioning your 'opinions'. I tend to base my 'opinions' on actual facts.  But you can use idle speculation and be proven wrong if you wish. 

You would think these type of 'opinions' would have finally disappeared but, I guess there is always one in crowd. 

I sure would like to compare your posts with mine circa 2006/2007 concerning Danny.

[JSD]

I’m not sure if this was mentioned but who’s to say Al Jefferson isn’t a product of superb development and coaching? Maybe Swift would have developed sooner under Doc Rivers system and been equally as marketable as Jefferson as a centerpiece for a trade of that magnitude. Who knows?

I do know The Celtics have done a tremendous job of developing and marketing players to the point we thought Gerald Green was going to be the next Tracy Mcgrady and the same type of development and hype could have applied to Swift… It’s all revisionist history at this point anyway.