Owe alot of thanks to Seattle for #17- Ainge wanted Swift instead of Jefferson

[winsomme]

so you're saying that Danny doesn't use smokescreens....or that GMs in general don't use smoke screens.....?

i think you are the one engaging in revisionist history here....

the fact is that Big Al was supposed to be off the board at 15. ironically, the rumors were that SEATTLE was the team that wanted him.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/draft2004/news/story?id=1826621

as you reported, Danny liked both players and seemed comfortable taking either. what he would have done if they were both on the board at #15 is total speculation on your part.

Can you name one of these famous Danny Ainge smokescreens?

  For starters, Korolov and Roko Ukic were said to both have received promises from Ainge. But that (smokescreens) doesn't mean that he didn't want Swift, which he did. I don't see why it's a big deal, though. Do teams picking 15th get the top guy on their draft boards? Ainge would have taken plenty of player over Swift, starting with Howard, Okafor and Livingston. And Seattle was pretty high on Swift when he was healthy.

Oh, I agree.  It's not a big deal at all; I can't even say that Robert Swift wouldn't have been worth the 15th pick if healthy, or even that he wouldn't have turned out to be a better player than Big Al.  I don't think the love for Swift is really reason to criticize Danny at all.  (I hadn't heard the rumor of Korolev or Ukic promises, although I know Danny was said to have liked both.  Korolev was picked prior to our selection, though.)

Danny got a bit lucky, maybe, because of how things worked out.  However, that doesn't mean that he didn't properly identify Big Al as a superb player.

The only issue that bugs me is people trying to claim in hindsight that Big Al was Danny's guy all along.  That's just so counter to the facts to border on ridiculous.

i suppose by "people" you are referring to me....and i never said that i thought Big Al was Danny's guy. as you are a stickler for when i misrepresent your positions, i would expect that you would not do the same to me.

what i said was that we don't know what Danny would have done if the draft had played out differently. i never denied that he liked Swift. what i said was that "liking" Swift didn't in and of itself mean that he would have taken Swift if both Big Al and Swift were there when we picked at #15.

like i have pointed out - and by the way you have yet to respond to -  Seattle reportedly "loved" Jefferson, but when it came down to actually making the pick when both players were there, they took Swift.

how can you explain that without at least entertaining the possibility that Danny could have taken Big Al if they were both on the board at our pick?

you have already conceded that he liked both players. yet you rely on reports that he wanted Swift as proof that it is a "confirmed" fact that he would have taken him over Big Al....while the "reports" were that Seattle wanted Jefferson, but took Swift....

[johnnyrondo]

Winsomme and Roy Hobbs are such the Felix and Oscar of this blog. Why don't you two move in with each other already? Whenever the two of you start debating, I know it's going to be good (or long). So whole Felix and who's Oscar?

Btw this was all in good fun. I'm not jabbing at either of you. Just saying you guys tend to battle.

[Roy Hobbs]

... and by the way you have yet to respond to ...

I'm not going to, either. 

[winsomme]

Winsomme and Roy Hobbs are such the Felix and Oscar of this blog. Why don't you two move in with each other already? Whenever the two of you start debating, I know it's going to be good (or long). So whole Felix and who's Oscar?

Btw this was all in good fun. I'm not jabbing at either of you. Just saying you guys tend to battle.

i guess Roy isn't playing tonight 

i just saw that documentary on debating - "Resolved". i guess it got me riled up for a good go 'round

[winsomme]

... and by the way you have yet to respond to ...

I'm not going to, either. 

  like jr suggested, that could save us both a couple of hours...probably better that way.

[BballTim]

The only issue that bugs me is people trying to claim in hindsight that Big Al was Danny's guy all along.  That's just so counter to the facts to border on ridiculous.

  Agreed. But by the same token, people trot out Swift to show that Ainge was "lucky" that Al, a player that he didn't want, fell into his lap (much to his disappointment). Clearly there were plenty of players that he would have taken over Al, but most of them were gone by pick 7. By the "lucky" standard, nobody that picks after #1 or #2 should get any credit for who they choose because the players that they wanted the most were selected before they had a chance to pick a player.

[Roy Hobbs]

The only issue that bugs me is people trying to claim in hindsight that Big Al was Danny's guy all along.  That's just so counter to the facts to border on ridiculous.

  Agreed. But by the same token, people trot out Swift to show that Ainge was "lucky" that Al, a player that he didn't want, fell into his lap (much to his disappointment). Clearly there were plenty of players that he would have taken over Al, but most of them were gone by pick 7. By the "lucky" standard, nobody that picks after #1 or #2 should get any credit for who they choose because the players that they wanted the most were selected before they had a chance to pick a player.

True enough, although in the case of Swift, he was a relative unknown who refused to work out for other teams, purportedly due to a promise from Danny.  If the Celtics plan had worked, Swift would have been in green.

I remember reading somewhere that Danny's absolute ideal scenario was for Swift to be taken at #15, and then for Big Al to slide to #23.  I doubt that was ever overly realistic, but I do think that if we'd gotten swift, Danny would have done everything in his power to package #23 and #24 to move up and grab Big Al.  He clearly liked him.

Going through some of the older news articles, it was pretty interesting to read Doc's take on the draft pick:

"I hate to liken a high school player to any NBA player, because it's always a curse," Rivers said. "But I liken him to [Pistons center] Ben Wallace, except maybe he'll be a better scorer. The kid can rebound right now. You might see him on the floor sooner than we think."

Doc was a little off on that one.   It just goes to show that nobody knew just how great Big Al was.

[winsomme]

The only issue that bugs me is people trying to claim in hindsight that Big Al was Danny's guy all along.  That's just so counter to the facts to border on ridiculous.

  Agreed. But by the same token, people trot out Swift to show that Ainge was "lucky" that Al, a player that he didn't want, fell into his lap (much to his disappointment). Clearly there were plenty of players that he would have taken over Al, but most of them were gone by pick 7. By the "lucky" standard, nobody that picks after #1 or #2 should get any credit for who they choose because the players that they wanted the most were selected before they had a chance to pick a player.

True enough, although in the case of Swift, he was a relative unknown who refused to work out for other teams, purportedly due to a promise from Danny.  If the Celtics plan had worked, Swift would have been in green.

I remember reading somewhere that Danny's absolute ideal scenario was for Swift to be taken at #15, and then for Big Al to slide to #23.  I doubt that was ever overly realistic, but I do think that if we'd gotten swift, Danny would have done everything in his power to package #23 and #24 to move up and grab Big Al.  He clearly liked him.

Going through some of the older news articles, it was pretty interesting to read Doc's take on the draft pick:

"I hate to liken a high school player to any NBA player, because it's always a curse," Rivers said. "But I liken him to [Pistons center] Ben Wallace, except maybe he'll be a better scorer. The kid can rebound right now. You might see him on the floor sooner than we think."

Doc was a little off on that one.   It just goes to show that nobody knew just how great Big Al was.

see now, that "ideal scenario" is complete and total speculation. it could just as easily have gone down that he picked Big Al and traded up to get Swift if they were both there. you are not presenting facts here.

and on Doc on Big Al, as far as rebounding goes, Big Al is a great rebounder...

[BballTim]

I think Danny has even admitted to getting lucky. I seem to recal him talking about "best player available" drafting and mentioning how Portland passed on Al Jefferson, b/c they had Zach Randolph and drafted Telfair instead. Then when they had the opportunity to draft Chris Paul, b/c they had Telfair they traded that pick for M. Webster. I believe Danny would of drafted either Swift or Telfair over Jefferson, but got lucky that both were off the board.

  There were plenty of Ainge liking Swift rumors, but not so much on Telfair. Do you have a link or anything? Roy and winsomme don't seem to have any trouble finding some.

Personally if not for that bit of luck, Ainge's drafting ability has been pretty eh. I know that Ratliff's contract expired one yr earlier than Raef's but Telfair was never worth a high lottery pick (Brandon Roy).

  That's just celticsblog misinformation. Ratliff's contract was very valuable, as we've since seen. Also, Ainge saved about $14M in the deal. Seattle got 2 1st rounders from Phoenix to save the Suns $8M. Describing the deal as Telfair for Roy is ridiculous.

 

People credit Ainge's drafting with getting us Ray Allen and KG, but to be honest we got Allen by sucking last year and overpaying a little with a top 5 pick.

  A top 5 pick is overpaying for a title and the chance to win more? I doubt it.

 

Al Jefferson was the only player that Ainge drafted that helped us get either of those two(and he was because of luck).

  Seattle didn't want West in the deal? Minny didn't want Gomes?

[winsomme]

I think Danny has even admitted to getting lucky. I seem to recal him talking about "best player available" drafting and mentioning how Portland passed on Al Jefferson, b/c they had Zach Randolph and drafted Telfair instead. Then when they had the opportunity to draft Chris Paul, b/c they had Telfair they traded that pick for M. Webster. I believe Danny would of drafted either Swift or Telfair over Jefferson, but got lucky that both were off the board.

  There were plenty of Ainge liking Swift rumors, but not so much on Telfair. Do you have a link or anything? Roy and winsomme don't seem to have any trouble finding some.

Personally if not for that bit of luck, Ainge's drafting ability has been pretty eh. I know that Ratliff's contract expired one yr earlier than Raef's but Telfair was never worth a high lottery pick (Brandon Roy).

  That's just celticsblog misinformation. Ratliff's contract was very valuable, as we've since seen. Also, Ainge saved about $14M in the deal. Seattle got 2 1st rounders from Phoenix to save the Suns $8M. Describing the deal as Telfair for Roy is ridiculous.

 

People credit Ainge's drafting with getting us Ray Allen and KG, but to be honest we got Allen by sucking last year and overpaying a little with a top 5 pick.

  A top 5 pick is overpaying for a title and the chance to win more? I doubt it.

 

Al Jefferson was the only player that Ainge drafted that helped us get either of those two(and he was because of luck).

  Seattle didn't want West in the deal? Minny didn't want Gomes?

yeah, i don't think people fully take into account how desperate teams are to move salary these days. i mean, it is happening ALL over the place. the Kurt Thomas one has to be the most absurd example. they had to GIVE picks to Seattle for them to take Kurt Thomas who actually is a decent player...

look at the scramble of teams to unload payroll to get in on the 2010 FA sweepstakes....

expiring contracts is a HUGE commodity in today's NBA.

[johnnyrondo]

I think Danny has even admitted to getting lucky. I seem to recal him talking about "best player available" drafting and mentioning how Portland passed on Al Jefferson, b/c they had Zach Randolph and drafted Telfair instead. Then when they had the opportunity to draft Chris Paul, b/c they had Telfair they traded that pick for M. Webster. I believe Danny would of drafted either Swift or Telfair over Jefferson, but got lucky that both were off the board.

  There were plenty of Ainge liking Swift rumors, but not so much on Telfair. Do you have a link or anything? Roy and winsomme don't seem to have any trouble finding some.

Personally if not for that bit of luck, Ainge's drafting ability has been pretty eh. I know that Ratliff's contract expired one yr earlier than Raef's but Telfair was never worth a high lottery pick (Brandon Roy).

  That's just celticsblog misinformation. Ratliff's contract was very valuable, as we've since seen. Also, Ainge saved about $14M in the deal. Seattle got 2 1st rounders from Phoenix to save the Suns $8M. Describing the deal as Telfair for Roy is ridiculous.

 

People credit Ainge's drafting with getting us Ray Allen and KG, but to be honest we got Allen by sucking last year and overpaying a little with a top 5 pick.

  A top 5 pick is overpaying for a title and the chance to win more? I doubt it.

 

Al Jefferson was the only player that Ainge drafted that helped us get either of those two(and he was because of luck).

  Seattle didn't want West in the deal? Minny didn't want Gomes?

Ok, I think you are trying to get personal, but I'll try to answer your questions. Don't have a link on the Telfair thing. I believe I heard it from Danny on the radio. I do remember Danny saying when he traded for Telfair that Telfair was better than any point guard in the draft that year (Marcus Williams, Rondo, etc). The fact that Ratliff's contract expired a yr earlier was an added bonus. Expiring contracts are hit or miss. All depends about timing. Raef's contract is expiring now. See how that works. And you use the Seattle/Phoenix trade to show that expiring contracts are valuable? Phoenix had to trade two first rounders for Seattle to agree to take the expiring contract. Did you think it was the other way around? And Kurt Thomas was a much better player/asset than Ratliff. Most teams get nothing for their expiring contract. Ainge was willing to trade Al Jefferson. No other team was offering a young player close to his level for KG or anybody for that matter. Trust me ROY Brandon Roy and expiring contract in 1 yr Raef had more value than Telfair and Ratliff.

I love that we won a title. That doesn't mean that Ray Allen at this stage of his career and with his contract probably wasn't worth a #5 pick. But I stand by my point that we didn't get Allen based on Ainge's drafting, but based on our record last season. Delonte West wasn't a deal breaker and neither was Gomes. West was a first rounder. If we had offered a future first instead of Delonte I'm thinking Presti would have preferred that.  

I'm thinking I don't want to get into a long winsomme/roy hobbs like argument, so I will end this by summarizing my point on the thread topic/title. We got lucky that the Sonics took Ainge's guy. I do give Ainge credit for settling for Jefferson. Many teams passed on him. Ainge didn't. That was a good decision.

[johnnyrondo]

yeah, i don't think people fully take into account how desperate teams are to move salary these days. i mean, it is happening ALL over the place. the Kurt Thomas one has to be the most absurd example. they had to GIVE picks to Seattle for them to take Kurt Thomas who actually is a decent player...

look at the scramble of teams to unload payroll to get in on the 2010 FA sweepstakes....

expiring contracts is a HUGE commodity in today's NBA.

If all expiring contracts were huge commodities, the Suns would of gotten something good for Kurt Thomas. They got nothing. In fact they had to give up 2 first rounders to have someone take him. So they actually got negative value for the expiring contract. Expiring contracts CAN be valuable. For example if Memphis had been willing to trade Gasol a yr earlier, PJ Brown's expiring contract would have paid off. If Minny decides to keep KG one yr longer than maybe Raef's contract is better than Ratliff. Who knows. Marbury's contact this yr? is it valuable? maybe. Maybe not.

[winsomme]

yeah, i don't think people fully take into account how desperate teams are to move salary these days. i mean, it is happening ALL over the place. the Kurt Thomas one has to be the most absurd example. they had to GIVE picks to Seattle for them to take Kurt Thomas who actually is a decent player...

look at the scramble of teams to unload payroll to get in on the 2010 FA sweepstakes....

expiring contracts is a HUGE commodity in today's NBA.

If all expiring contracts were huge commodities, the Suns would of gotten something good for Kurt Thomas. They got nothing. In fact they had to give up 2 first rounders to have someone take him. So they actually got negative value for the expiring contract. Expiring contracts CAN be valuable. For example if Memphis had been willing to trade Gasol a yr earlier, PJ Brown's expiring contract would have paid off. If Minny decides to keep KG one yr longer than maybe Raef's contract is better than Ratliff. Who knows. Marbury's contact this yr? is it valuable? maybe. Maybe not.

but it also helped them financially to be able to take on the Shaq contract later in the season......freeing up money is a really big deal. in the Thomas case, it just happened to be the money created by the trade exception that made the difference.

as far as expiring contracts go, the two teams in the Finals were teams that made key deals that could not have been made if not for having large expiring contracts.

[cooleststan]

No, this one is pretty much confirmed as true.  Not only did Danny want Swift on draft night, but it's been reported that he contacted Seattle numerous times about him, including after we drafted Gerald Green, and in last year's discussions involving Ray Allen.

Danny really liked Swift, and would have taken him.  Of course, we have no idea if Danny's faith in Swift was founded, because he can't stay healthy.

what exactly is confirmed as "true"?

Danny liking Swift doesn't mean he would have taken him over Big Al because Big Al ALSO was not supposed to be there when we picked....

Danny wanting to draft Swift also doesn't confirm anything because we have no idea of how they viewed the relative value of either.

i have never seen a report that stacked up Swift vs Big Al. in fact, the surprise was that Big Al slipped to us....

The rumors pre-draft were that we loved Swift first, and Big Al second.  Everyone knew this.  It wasn't a shock when we chose Big Al, but it was clear to pundits at the time that he was the second choice.

Conveniently, now, people want to act like the Swift choice was a "smoke screen", despite Danny's purported second choice (Big Al) being the player we actually took.  It's not much of a "smoke screen" when you take one of the players everyone had been linking you to for weeks (much like happened the year before, where Ainge's desire for Marcus Banks was well known by everyone).

Why all the revisionist history?  Danny liked a player better than Big Al.  Who knows -- maybe Swift justified Danny's infatuation, and only hasn't reached his potential due to injuries.  It's no way a slight against Danny, but it certainly does show that sometimes luck plays a big factor in successful drafting.

Anyway, here's how Steve Bulpett described it immediately after the draft:

Yeah, the Celtics got one of the guys they'd targeted with the 15th pick.

But that didn't stop Danny Ainge from spending much of yesterday trying to move up to assure himself of his fondest wish.

The Celts offered No. 15 and either 24 or 25 to get up for high school 7-footer Robert Swift. Managing partner Wyc Grousbeck was even willing to part with cash to sweeten the deal. But all of that wasn't enough to get it done.

When clubs ahead asked for 15 and Jiri Welsch, the conversations ended.

So the Celtics opened their arms and took 19-year-old power forward Al Jefferson at 15.
...
`There were deal possibilities,'' said Ainge, ``but as it unfolded and it looked like we were going to get Jefferson or Swift - those were the two guys we targeted as the top big guys - then we didn't really want to pay the price to do anything different.

``We felt like we had to get one of those two guys, Swift or Jefferson, and that's where the contingencies were built. But just a combination of picks wasn't going to do it. It would have had to be a player. Teams had interest in Jiri, and we didn't want to make that sacrifice. We think Jiri is better than a lot of the guys that were being drafted from 5-10.''

so you're saying that Danny doesn't use smokescreens....or that GMs in general don't use smoke screens.....?

i think you are the one engaging in revisionist history here....

the fact is that Big Al was supposed to be off the board at 15. ironically, the rumors were that SEATTLE was the team that wanted him.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/draft2004/news/story?id=1826621

as you reported, Danny liked both players and seemed comfortable taking either. what he would have done if they were both on the board at #15 is total speculation on your part.

Um... if seattle wanted jefferson, then they would have picked him instead of swift. so that doesn't make any sense.
also, He quoted a reliable source saying that the celtics were willing to trade up to get swift.
End of story. You fail.

[cooleststan]

so you're saying that Danny doesn't use smokescreens....or that GMs in general don't use smoke screens.....?

i think you are the one engaging in revisionist history here....

the fact is that Big Al was supposed to be off the board at 15. ironically, the rumors were that SEATTLE was the team that wanted him.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/draft2004/news/story?id=1826621

as you reported, Danny liked both players and seemed comfortable taking either. what he would have done if they were both on the board at #15 is total speculation on your part.

Can you name one of these famous Danny Ainge smokescreens?

We were rumored to be selecting Marcus Banks.  We selected Marcus Banks.

We were rumored to be selecting Robert Swift or Al Jefferson.  We tried to move up to get Swift, and selected Jefferson.

We were rumored to love Rajon Rondo.  Danny traded for Rajon Rondo.

I can't think of a single player we were linked to that Danny passed over.  For all the talk of "master of the smoke screen" that I hear, I can't think of any that actually happened.  There may have been one somewhere, but the pretty clear track record is, if it's reported that Danny is enamored with somebody, he probably is.

Also, what part of that Bulpett report wasn't clear?  We tried to move up to select *Swift*.  Get it?  Not Al Jefferson.  Robert Swift.  I'm sure Danny, if he were being candid, would admit he got a little lucky.  Why can't you?

Anyway, once again, you have proven yourself to be the most unreasonable person on the blog in terms of "debate".  I'm done with you tonight.

seriously, his arguments do not even make any sense. PLease at least know what you are talking about before you post (winsomme)