For those of you who don't know, Basketball-reference.com has a pretty accurate formula for Hall of Fame Probability based on height, career averages in points, rebounds and assists, All Star Game selections, MVP awards and titles. Right now, Pierce's probability is 0.9512, 9th among active players.
According to the site, using 50% as the dividing line, 640 players from their sample of 668 were correctly classified. 72 players were above 50% probability, 596 were below. Of the 72 players with above 50% probability, 61 were in the Hall, 11 were not (some example - DJ, Chet Walker, Bob Dandridge). There were also 17 players with probabilities below 50% who were in the Hall (some example - Joe Dumars, K.C. Jones, Earl Monroe, Calvin Murphy).
It seems from looking at it, though, that 65% is the better cutoff mark to pretty much guarantee the Hall. Only 2 Hall-eligible players with probabilities above 65% aren't in the Hall of Fame - Mitch Richmond, who is at 0.7362 but just became eligible last year, and Jo Jo White, by far the highest snub, with an 85.71% probability. Guy played 11 full seasons, averaged 17.2 points, 4 rebounds and 4.9 assists, made 7 All Star teams, won 2 titles and a Finals MVP. I just hope Pierce doesn't follow the footsteps of his fellow Jayhawk-turned-Celtic.
There are 22 guys with probabilities of 100%. In order: Russell, Kareem, Jordan, Wilt, Magic, Larry, Pettit, Cousy, Shaq, Duncan, Karl Malone, Oscar, Moses, Kobe, Havlicek, Iverson, Hakeem, Barkley, KG, West, Dr. J and David Robinson.
Back to the current list - here's the order of active players above .500 probability. Only players who have played more than 5 seasons are on the list. The top of the list pretty much concurs with the lists of locks, with one huge exception:
1. Shaq 1.0000
2. Duncan 1.0000
3. Kobe 1.0000
4. Iverson 1.0000
5. Garnett 1.0000
6. Dirk 0.9993
7. Nash 0.9991
8. Carter 0.95289. Pierce 0.9512
10. Ray 0.9316
11. T-Mac 0.8780
12. Kidd 0.8702
13. Webber 0.6972
14. G Hill 0.6831
15. Arenas 0.6078
For the record, Lebron would be at 0.9727, ahead of Carter and Pierce.
I simply cannot understand, though, how Vince Carter has 95% probability of making the Hall of Fame. It just seems incorrect to me. Rest of it looks good. 5 surefire locks - Shaq, Duncan, Kobe, KG, AI. Next two being Dirk and Nash makes sense, they've both won MVPs, I'm actually surprised they're not locks already. Then having Pierce and Ray - great careers capped off by titles - makes sense. But Vince Carter?
For the record, I think the first 7 will all make it, as will Pierce. Ray I think has a good chance but 93% does seem a bit high to me. I don't think Carter should make it but I do think McGrady and Kidd belong in the Hall. I don't think Webber and Grant Hill should be Hall of Famers based on their pro careers but combining in college, maybe. And Arenas I don't think should be there at all. I'm pretty surprised he's ahead of Tony Parker (who's currently at 0.3858), Mourning (0.3362), Chauncey (0.0514) and Manu (0.0510). The list obviously has problems since Marbury (0.2819) and Francis (0.2308) are way ahead of Chauncey, Manu and Sheed (0.0283). For the record, Cassell is at 25%.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/leaders/hof_prob_active.html