Ajinca is exactly the kind of player they should be looking at. He can be stashed in Europe while he bulks up.
I agree with this point, but I don't understand why people see him and assume he can bulk up, but they see Tomic (who is supposedly more skilled), and assume he can't. From what I have seen of Tomic and Ajinka, I think Tomic actually has the better frame to add weight to.
Good question, Chris. I'd say there are a couple of reasons:
1. For starters, and probably the most important reason, Tomic is one year and a half older than Ajinca. If in the next 18 months Ajinca doesn't add some bulk to his body, the hype surrounding him will fade drastically.
2. Tomic has been playing pro basketball for 3 years. He hasn't showed much improvement in his body. Ajinca basically played his 1st season last year and his physical strength clearly improved (though mostly his upper body, I reckon).
3. Ajinca has showed his ability to be dominant in the paint when playing against his peers in youth tournaments, especially in the defensive side. Tomic not so much.
4. Overall, Ajinca is more gifted physically. He is quicker, faster running the floor, jumps higher, has a longer wingspan. Also, I don't agree with your judgment about their frames.
5. Ajinca averages a shot-block every 8 minutes; Tomic every 46 minutes. Ajinca averages a rebound every 3.5 minutes; Tomic every 4 minutes. Ajinca has a FTA for 7 minutes, making 30% of his points from there; Tomic has a FTA for 11 minutes and only 14% of his total points were from the line. Ajinca tried hard to play in the paint and attack the rim this season and his kind of game is more aggressive and physical.
6. Tomic improved during this season, as expected; but Ajinca was more impressive. In the last 11 games of the season, he averaged 16mpg; in the first 11 games, 7.5 mpg. Of course that he started from a lower floor - Tomic is already a very good player for European standards.
7. Skill-wise, you are right. But Tomic is a low-post player, that needs to gain position to execute his repertoire of fancy plays. Without the body strength, he will never be able to hold position in the paint in the NBA. Ajinca looks more versatile, he goes for dunks every time he has the chance... he's not as good as Tomic right now, it's not even close, but, and perhaps I'm being unfair (in all honesty, I've only watched one game from Tomic this last season), Tomic is more the prototypical hyper-soft Euro big, while Ajinca at least displays flashes of toughness, despite of his lack of strength.
So, and while I'm not sold on the idea of drafting an european big (far from it), I'd give a slight advantage to Ajinca, essentially because he's 2 years younger. But I definitely share your doubts and I'm also worried about his chances of ever playing in the NBA. As I've said before, I'd rather see Ainge pick a college winger in the 1st round and then try to get a middle 2nd round pick and draft some other guy (Semir, Asik, Casspi, De Colo, etc.).
Side note: if an athletic European big is the goal, then the priority will be Ibaka, the Congolese Garnett:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-pOqfoxfeOQ&feature=related