Author Topic: We should draft with the future in mind  (Read 14714 times)

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We should draft with the future in mind
« on: June 01, 2008, 02:09:10 AM »

Offline 2008champs

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*Edit* I changed the title cause I realized it was causing negative vibes.
 In this draft, there's no one we can take at 30 who will contribute next seasson (unless Jason Maxiel and Rodney Stuckey are re-entering this year's draft).  Actually, there is a chance that college upperclassmen like David Padget and Sasha Kaun could find time on the court, since we lack depth in the frontcourt, but they aren't going to be used meaningfully.

So rather than going with the "go with the most ready player" route, Ainge should do what he does best and take the player with the best overall talent--regardless if it'll take time for him to develop.

As we are currently constructed, we have areas to fill.

PG
I think our depth here is at least adequate.  Rajon absolutely needs to develop a nose for offense.  He's got 15 ppg in his pocket if he looks to finish his penetrations in the lane and take open jumpers.  With all the attention paid to Pierce, Garnett, and Allen, Rajon gets a lot of opportunities that he doesn't capitalize on.  By looking for his shot, he'll find his teammates open for easier shots near the basket.  Doc doesn't incorporate an offense that stresses the PG creating shots for the team, but Rajon has had some big assist games, which shows his keen eye for passing the ball.  His quick hands translates well to fastbreak points.
Right now, Cassell and House are our backups, but in time, Gabe Pruitt stands to inherit the role.  He's nothing more than a backup PG, but he can find more value as a shooting/scoring threat.  He's a good shooter, and if he develops aggressiveness at this level (the type he showed in the D-League), he'll get a good share of minutes on the floor.

Draft I'm not in any rush to grab a PG, but at 30 I may look at Mario Chalmers (whom I have liked since high school).  I'd rather see him taken in the 2nd round, but his pesky defense and solid scoring ability doesn't make him such a stretch with the last pick of the 1st round.

SG and SF
Once Pierce and Ray Allen are gone, we are thin at the wing positions.  I am a fan who thinks Tony Allen is a keeper, and if he commits himself to 500 jumpers a day and countless ball dribbling exercises in the offseason, will be our starting 2 when Pierce and Allen are gone.  Tony holds himself back from being a force.  Confidence and focus are his stumbling blocks.  Getting over those hurdles will set Tony free to be an incredible player.
I'm open to give Gerald Green another shot.  I think he was hit with 3 huge wake up calls this past season.  1) Ainge traded him away (he was Gerald's biggest supporter), 2) the Wolves traded him away (never got his feet set in MIN), and 3) the Rockets released him (though it was because of limited roster space).  After being selected 18th in the 2005 draft, and showing glimpses of tremendous upside, Gerald is unemployed after just a couple of seasons, and questions about his attitude has surfaced. That must be alarming to him and his family.  This should be the kick in the pants that a young player needs to dedicate himself to whatever it takes to succeed in the NBA.  He's still got tremendous upside--he's got terrific touch and range on his jumper and he's got athleticism.  His weak points are his dribbling, footwork, and shot selection.  Very correctible areas.  If Gerald is ready to kill himself in offseason workouts and be willing to do whatever Ainge and Co. tells him to do, his young career can still be rectified.  A future wing combo of Tony Allen and Gerald Green (both developed, of course) has some promise.

Draft  At 30, choice talents are slim pickings, but if Brandon Rush happens to fall, I'd take him.  He's got parts of Paul Pierce and Ray Allen in him.  He's got Pierce's body style (not as much meat, but has room to pack on some muscles on his broad shoulders) and Allen's smooth game.  He's got a jumper (needs more consistency) and he can drive to the basket (but must show more toughness).  He seems to have fully recoverd from his ACL injury and shows absolutely no ill effects from it. 
One player I absolutely want falling to 30 is Nicolas Batum.  He's the type of pivitol player who helps a team's versatility.  He's the european version of Tayshaun Prince.

PF and C   
Right now, we have Garnett, Perk, PJ, Baby, and Powe.  Take away Garnett and PJ, and what we are left with in the future are Perk, Baby, and Powe....not exactly the pillar of dominance in the paint we'd like to have.  Perk does have his value.  He's a defensive presence with occasional spurts of offense.  But he is not going to make the All-NBA Defensive 1st or 2nd team (maybe 3rd team one day) and he isn't a big time rebounder (his hands aren't good and he can't get off the ground more than once when leaping for rebounds out of his comfort zone).  On this team, with 3 star players, Perk can excel by focusing on his limited role.  On a team with lesser talent, Perk must offer more--and I think he can, just not that much more.  As for Baby and Powe, I think if we could join the two, we'd have our PF of the future.  Baby has the quick feet and brute strength, but his short arms and lack of vertical make him a candidate for the player who gets blocked the most in the NBA.  Powe has freakishly long arms and excellent post moves, but he doesn't have the lower body strength to control his area in the post.  Both have flaws that will keep them from being big time players.

Draft   No big name PF or C will fall to 30, but sleepers may be found.  Nikola Pekovic could be a scrappy big man who adds a touch more offense than Perk (but we sacrifice some shot blocking), and both Richard Hendrix and DJ White can come in and battle Baby and Powe for playing time right off the bat.  Another sleeper is Devon Hardin--an athletic and muscular 6'10" big man who can get up and down the court well.  He's got the goods--but just hasn't delivered them.  Nathan Jawai looks like he can be molded into a formidable player.     

We can't expect much with the 30th pick.  If Ainge can move either Powe or Baby and the 30th pick to move up into the late teens, early 20's, we could get lucky with a player who slides that far.  Otherwise, we're probably looking at getting a supplemental player who won't really impact the team, now or in the future.
« Last Edit: June 02, 2008, 06:24:27 PM by 2008champs »

Re: We must retool
« Reply #1 on: June 01, 2008, 11:12:14 AM »

Offline CoachBo

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While I agree with the basic concept of retooling the bottom third of the roster, I do not share many of your points. The retooling, I would submit, should improve the basketball intellect of the club and does not necessarily have to involve using draft picks.

For instance, I have zero interest in Gerald Green and I would not make a qualifying offer to Tony Allen. Neither can help us win a title, not next year, not in five years, not ever. We need smarter players, not unintelligent projects.

I disagree as well at the point. We need a younger vet to back Rondo. Sam should retire. I suspect House will sign a deal elsewhere.

At the wing, should we use the pick then Brandon Rush has the basketball intellect to be useful to us as a young project. However, the resign of James Posey is an absolute must. He should get a healthy multi-year deal to remain.

Inside, I'm looking at free agents or some related deal to trade out of the draft, and looking to clear out some room at the end of the current roster. Resigning Brown would be fine if he wans to play again.
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Re: We must retool
« Reply #2 on: June 01, 2008, 09:55:04 PM »

Offline 2008champs

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I'm not looking at what the roster should be in the next 2-3 years.  I'm going beyond this current era of Celtics basketball and looking into the next era where there won't be the Big 3, James Posey, and Eddie House.  I'm looking at retooling for the future.

While I agree that both Tony and Gerald aren't smart/intellectual basketball players, they do have abilities that can compensate some for their lack of smarts.  They aren't going to be star level players without a lot of basketball IQ, but they can be useful players with their knack for scoring.  But yeah, I agree that we won't win championships if we don't have better players at the wings.

Currently, I think every spot aside from PG is up for grabs once we enter the new era. 

Re: We must retool
« Reply #3 on: June 01, 2008, 10:32:01 PM »

Offline Barnabas

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I'm hoping for Hardin to be available that late.  I don't expect Danny to re-sign Scott Pollard, so we will need another big man.  An athletic big man like Hardin just might be answer we need should we play the Hawks again in the playoffs.  We should re-sign PJ Brown, if he's willing.  And then pursue an experienced, back up PG.  Maybe Davis, Tony, and Eddie are not in the Celtics' future plans, and rightly so.

But yeah, I believe Hardin would be a good choice.  We've got a short, small team.  Additional size would be helpful.

Re: We must retool
« Reply #4 on: June 01, 2008, 10:51:28 PM »

Offline BrickJames

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sorry, not a fan of your name, nor the topic of this thread pre-the finals even beginning.

besides
Quote
I am a fan who thinks Tony Allen is a keeper

I saw this and stopped reading.  Sorry to trivialize your post.

Well, not really.

God bless and good night.
God bless and good night!


Re: We must retool
« Reply #5 on: June 01, 2008, 10:55:13 PM »

Offline Cman

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Rush, CDR, Walker, Hardin may be available at #30 and could contribute next year in stretches.
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Re: We must retool
« Reply #6 on: June 01, 2008, 11:10:03 PM »

Offline 2008champs

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sorry, not a fan of your name, nor the topic of this thread pre-the finals even beginning.

besides
Quote
I am a fan who thinks Tony Allen is a keeper

I saw this and stopped reading.  Sorry to trivialize your post.

Well, not really.

God bless and good night.

No problem, BrickJames.  There aren't many Tony Allen fans left  :)  I think he's flying under everyone's radar right now because he's been buried behind of Pierce, Ray, Posey and House (and now Cassell).  Think back to last year before his tragic knee injury--remember how he was making believers out of his naysayers?  He's still got that type of game.  He does need to sharpen his ball handling and rework his form on his jumper, and with a good offseason workout regimen, I think we'll see Tony Allen turn heads again.


Re: We must retool
« Reply #7 on: June 02, 2008, 12:02:44 AM »

Offline guava_wrench

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I really don't care what happens 5 years from now. All moves should aim for keeping our team competitive for championships in the near future.

Just leave the draft to DA. He's done a great job evaluating talent for us, especially for late picks.

Re: We must retool
« Reply #8 on: June 02, 2008, 12:25:53 AM »

Offline Bahku

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I really don't care what happens 5 years from now. All moves should aim for keeping our team competitive for championships in the near future.

Just leave the draft to DA. He's done a great job evaluating talent for us, especially for late picks.


I agree, GW (TP) ... there's just way too much that's uncertain in this league, and we need to do all we can to make this team as strong as it can be now, (and next year), not worry about five years from now. This is actually one area where Danny has done pretty well, and I think our management has some strong scouting talent and capabilities to do a decent job with it.
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Re: We must retool
« Reply #9 on: June 02, 2008, 12:40:29 AM »

Offline Sketch

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Nathan Jawai? Having seen a fair bit of him play I can't say I'm convinced. The Australian league is notoriously thin for big man talent (The infamous Ben Pepper has carved out quite a career here), and Jawai still hasn't asserted himself to be any kind of force; despite being in the top few big men in the league he has scant few plays called for him and seems happy to live on putbacks and finding himself on the right end of poor defensive rotations. He's got good hands, reasonable athleticism for a guy of his size and pretty quick feet but is so far away from making any sort of contribution at a higher level.
We are in the right division. It's an amazing division. If you have three or four days off, you probably move up to first place. The key in our division is not playing right now.
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Re: We must retool
« Reply #10 on: June 02, 2008, 12:40:54 AM »

Offline Steve Weinman

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sorry, not a fan of your name, nor the topic of this thread pre-the finals even beginning.

besides
Quote
I am a fan who thinks Tony Allen is a keeper

I saw this and stopped reading.  Sorry to trivialize your post.

Well, not really.

God bless and good night.

No problem, BrickJames.  There aren't many Tony Allen fans left  :)  I think he's flying under everyone's radar right now because he's been buried behind of Pierce, Ray, Posey and House (and now Cassell).  Think back to last year before his tragic knee injury--remember how he was making believers out of his naysayers?  He's still got that type of game.  He does need to sharpen his ball handling and rework his form on his jumper, and with a good offseason workout regimen, I think we'll see Tony Allen turn heads again.



2008champs -- since you mention being a TA fan, I'd recommend taking a look back in the thread archives for a thread Bahku started called "Tony Allen...What's the answer?"  Got a lot of good discussion, both on your pro-TA side and the somewhat more pessimistic view that Brick, CoachBo and many others (self included) espouse.  I believe this also stemmed from the back end of the comments section of my column after Game 2 of the Detroit series entitled "A Truly Thoughtless Loss" in which I got into it toward the end of the comments section with an admissions evaluator from OK State.  Just thought it would be discussion that might interest you.

Brick, I'm absolutely with you about not being thrilled to see the retool discussion at the forefront before we've even got to the most exciting part of this go-around...but that said, I'll mention that CDR, Chalmers and Rush would all be at or near the top of my list at 30.  The last two are particularly odd given my Mizzou background, but I was a Celts diehard long before my Mizzou days, and they've always come well ahead in my heart than the Tigers.  We're headed to the finals largely on the back of a Jayhawk, and while I'll never root for them while at Kansas, guys like Chalmers and Rush are solid ball players who could become contributors sooner rather than later.

-sw


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Re: We must retool
« Reply #11 on: June 02, 2008, 12:57:51 AM »

Offline Steve Weinman

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sorry, not a fan of your name, nor the topic of this thread pre-the finals even beginning.

besides
Quote
I am a fan who thinks Tony Allen is a keeper

I saw this and stopped reading.  Sorry to trivialize your post.

Well, not really.

God bless and good night.

No problem, BrickJames.  There aren't many Tony Allen fans left  :)  I think he's flying under everyone's radar right now because he's been buried behind of Pierce, Ray, Posey and House (and now Cassell).  Think back to last year before his tragic knee injury--remember how he was making believers out of his naysayers?  He's still got that type of game.  He does need to sharpen his ball handling and rework his form on his jumper, and with a good offseason workout regimen, I think we'll see Tony Allen turn heads again.



2008champs -- since you mention being a TA fan, I'd recommend taking a look back in the thread archives for a thread Bahku started called "Tony Allen...What's the answer?"  Got a lot of good discussion, both on your pro-TA side and the somewhat more pessimistic view that Brick, CoachBo and many others (self included) espouse.  I believe this also stemmed from the back end of the comments section of my column after Game 2 of the Detroit series entitled "A Truly Thoughtless Loss" in which I got into it toward the end of the comments section with an admissions evaluator from OK State.  Just thought it would be discussion that might interest you.

Brick, I'm absolutely with you about not being thrilled to see the retool discussion at the forefront before we've even got to the most exciting part of this go-around...but that said, I'll mention that CDR, Chalmers and Rush would all be at or near the top of my list at 30.  The last two are particularly odd given my Mizzou background, but I was a Celts diehard long before my Mizzou days, and they've always come well ahead in my heart than the Tigers.  We're headed to the finals largely on the back of a Jayhawk, and while I'll never root for them while at Kansas, guys like Chalmers and Rush are solid ball players who could become contributors sooner rather than later.

-sw

Links to the above references...

Daily Babble: "A Truly Thoughtless Loss" (see comments): http://www.celticsblog.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=3171&Itemid=260

Bahku's eloquently initiated thread, "Tony Allen: What's the answer?": http://www.celticsblog.com/index.php?option=com_smf&Itemid=64&topic=18291.0

-sw


Reggies Ghost: Where artistic genius happens.  Thank you, sir.

Re: We should draft with the future in mind
« Reply #12 on: June 02, 2008, 06:30:32 PM »

Offline 2008champs

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Ok guys.  I changed the title cause it was getting people off on the wrong foot.  My intention was not to take away from the Finals and what we are trying to accomplish right now, but to get us looking over the horizon, at the team after the days of the Big 3.

The way I see it, these are the pieces we have for the future:

Perk
Powe
Baby
Tony
Rajon
Pruitt

Of these guys, only Rajon has a shot to be special.

Like I mentioned in the original post, we aren't likely to find a guy at 30 who will be a contributor next season.  Rather, we should draft the best player available, even if its a younger guy who may take some time to develop.

Re: We should draft with the future in mind
« Reply #13 on: June 02, 2008, 06:58:03 PM »

Offline cordobes

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Three really huge contracts expiring is a piece for the future that we have to consider. It's really hard to believe we can get someone "special" with the #30, even with Ainge drafting. And he's almost certainly more worried about adding value to this team now. I would.

Re: We should draft with the future in mind
« Reply #14 on: June 02, 2008, 07:19:28 PM »

Offline 2008champs

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If we are looking to add value "now", we're better off taking a guy like Chris Douglass-Roberts.  His body and game are close to be at his ceiling, IMO.  He could be our 4th wing man next season if he beats out Tony Allen.

But say a guy like Nikolas Batum falls to us at 30.  He may not be as near ready as Douglass-Roberts, but his overall potential is greater.  Taking Batum instead may not pay off immediately, but in the long run he becomes the smarter choice. 

Now the argument becomes we should take the player who is going to help "this" team now, not some future team.  And that's what I'm trying to point out.  I don't think we are going to get a player at 30 who is going to immediately help out "this" team.  Guys like DJ White and Richard Hendrix (whom I would like to get if we didn't have Powe and Baby already) may be near ready to play in a small role in their rookie season, but is that really going to help us?  Not much.

The only type of help that will pay immediate dividends is a proven player who can push Rondo and Perkins.  Right now, PJ and Cassell are trying to be those guys, but I think we can do better.  But we won't get any of those guys in the draft--not with the 30th pick.
« Last Edit: June 02, 2008, 07:21:59 PM by Edgar »