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While I agree that he'll most likely be back next year, (probably a 90% chance), I don't agree that he should be back next year. I like Doc very much, but have seen enough this year, and especially in these playoffs, to know the he is in way over his head, and does not possess the tools to competently coach an NBA team successfully.
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I'm the first to say Doc has made some questionable decisions (and some good ones, though more questionable than good, it's important to remember this), but what exactly is your standard for "competently coaching an NBA team successfully"? How massive was his margin for error this year if a chronically incompetent coach can win 66 games and (at least) make the Conference Finals? Yes, he makes mistakes, some of which are maddening to many of us, and yes the team has struggled in the playoffs - some of that goes to Doc, but quite a bit goes to a lack of playoff experience between the playoffs, and tentative play overall. And, net result, however we've done it, we've won...
I understand why people don't like Doc or many of his decisions, and I side with them on individual criticisms most of the time, but the idea that he is a horrible coach, or one who is literally incapable of being successful, is a bit ridiculous. Red freaking Auerbach never had a winning % as high as Doc had this year - don't get me wrong, Doc couldn't carry Red's jock as a coach, but if a totally incompetent coach pulled that off, he must have about the best roster in NBA history.
Again, this isn't to say Doc is a Hall of Fame coach or one of the best in the league, but to say he's "incapable of succeeding" with a +.800 regular season and a conference finals trip begs the question of exactly what successful means these days.
I don't see how
anyone can honestly say that we have the record we do this year because of
Doc. C'mon ... check out his record from
last year! The main reason we have the record we
do this season, is because of KG, Ray, and the other personnel adjustments made in the
off-season,
not Doc. Any average coach could have done well with this team that's literally crammed with talent.
If you want a truer assessment of Doc's affect based on
record, then you have to take his
overall record, not just from a year overflowing with basketball ability. Using just this season as a litmus for judging Doc's coaching ability is
highly unrealistic, at best, and his
overall record shows
far more accurately what his coaching ability produces:
.444 = Below Average.