Author Topic: UFC 84 Ill Will - Preview and Predictions  (Read 4926 times)

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UFC 84 Ill Will - Preview and Predictions
« on: May 18, 2008, 02:21:15 PM »

Online Moranis

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Sorry I haven't done one of these in awhile, but with UFC 84 on Saturday May 24 I thought I would come and do my normal preview and prediction.  Also, a word of note on Saturday May 31 during primetime, CBS is airing the Elite XC live.

Main Card
BJ Penn Vs. Sean Sherk - LW Title Fight
Wanderlei Silva Vs. Keith Jardine - LHW
Wilson Gouveia Vs. Goran Reljic - LHW (swing bout)
Tito Ortiz Vs. Lyoto Machida - LHW
Thiago Silva Vs. Antonio Mendes - LHW
 
Under Card
Ivan Salaverry Vs. Rousimar Palhares - MW
Rameau Sokoudjou Vs. Kazuhiro Nakamura - LHW
Rich Clementi Vs. Terry Etim - LW
Jon Koppenhaver Vs. Yoshiyuki Yoshida - WW
Jason Tan Vs. Dong Hyun Kim - WW
Christian Wellisch Vs. Shane Carwin - HW

Preview and Predictions
Main Card
Penn Vs. Sherk
The two best LW's in the UFC and two of the best in the world.  Sherk is the much more powerful wrestler, but Penn holds the edge everywhere else.  Penn will try to keep it standing and outstrike Sherk, but he certainly won't be afraid on the ground as his BJJ is among the best in the world.  Sherk will try to use his incredible conditioning and his power wrestling to just wear Penn down and either win a decision or ground and pound him out.  Should be a solid championship fight.
Predcition: Sherk UD

W. Silva Vs. Jardine
Wanderlei is coming off a loss to Liddell, Jardine is coming off a win over Liddell.  Wanderlei is aging but he still has incredible skills.  Jardine is the much bigger fighter and will have a reach advantage.  He uses kicks well and will try to do that and keep Silva on the outside.  Silva has to get inside where his knees and elbows will be huge weapons for him.  Neither guy is a great ground fighter, though Silva should have the slight edge in technique while Jardine will have the size and strength advantage.
Prediction: Silva KO round 2

Gouveia Vs. Reljic
Gouveia is on a solid win streak.  Reljic is unbeaten and making his UFC debut.  He is a very dangerous striker.  Gouveia utilizes the kicks well and has solid KO power.  Reljic is probably the more dangerous striker, but UFC debuts often overwhelm people especially on the main card against a guy that is 4-1 in the UFC and winning his last 4.  Reljic does have a purple belt in BJJ and Gouveia is a black belt, but both men are known more as strikers.
Prediction: Gouveia KO round 2

Ortiz Vs. Machida
This will be Ortiz's last fight in the UFC as him and Dana White just can't work together.  Ortiz says he is finally 100% healthy and he will show the explosive wrestling and ground and pound he was known for early in his career.  Machida is still unbeaten and is coming off a dominating victory of Sokoudjou last December.  A win over Ortiz will significantly boost Machida's drawing power and you know that is why the UFC made this fight believing that Machida's strong overall game and inate counter attacking style will frustrate Ortiz and lead to a Machida victory.
Prediction: Machida UD

T. Silva Vs. Mendes
Thiago was initially supposed to fight Rashad Evans, who was then moved to the next PPV against Liddell (though now Liddell is injured and Evans is fighting Irvin).  The Thiago/Evans matchup was supposed to help shake out the division, instead Silva gets UFC newcomer Mendes.  Mendes is a fellow Brasilian and should matchup well with the unbeaten Silva.  Like Reljic though, debuting against a top UFC competitor on the main card (and opening the television portion) will likely be way too much for Mendes to handle.
Prediction: Silva TKO round 1
 
Under Card
Salaverry Vs. Palhares
Palhares is making his UFC debut, but unlike the two main card debutants he has not been thrown to the wolves so to speak.  He is generally known as a rising star.  Salaverry is a cagey veteran, but he doesn't have big dog skills, especially at this point in his career.  Palhares makes no qualms about being a BJJ fighter and he will want this fight on the ground.  Salaverry should have been striking, but I can't see him keeping it standing and his BJJ skills are no where near Palhares.
Prediction: Palhares Sub round 2

Sokoudjou Vs. Nakamura
Each man lost his UFC debut to Machida in their one and only UFC fight.  Sokoudjou grew to instantaneous fame when he knocked out Arona and Little Nog in Pride, which overshadowed his bad loss to Glover Teixiera.  As Machida showed Sokoudjou's ground game has a long way to go and when he can't just overwhelm someone striking he can be exposed striking.  He is young and has a lot of years left.  On the other side is Nakamura who is a cagey veteran with a lot of fights against quality competition in Pride.  Machida dominated the fight with Nakamura, but Machida couldn't finish him showing his toughness.  Sokoudjou will start off strong and try to get a quick finish, if Nakamura weathers the storm it should be a solid fight.
Prediction: Nakamura UD

Clementi Vs. Etim
Clementi stepping up on short notice to fight Etim.  Clementi looked to be on his last legs before dropping down to LW where he has looked impressive his last couple of fights.  If Clementi is to have any hope of staying in the UFC long term he has to beat Etim.  Etim is still young and a loss to Clementi won't be career threatening though it may put him out of the UFC for the time being.  Both men are solid overall fighters though neither really excels at any particular area.
Prediction: Clementi TKO round 2

Koppenhaver Vs. Yoshida
Yoshida making his UFC debut.  Like Palhares this kid could be a star.  Koppenhaver is not a huge draw for Yoshida so it could be a good debut.  Koppenhaver has shown solid striking on the ultimate fighter and his UFC fights.  Yoshida is a very solid Judoka so that could pose problems for Koppenhaver.
Prediction: Yoshida UD

Tan Vs. Kim
Kim another foreign fighter making his UFC debut.  Like Yoshida, Kim is a solid Judoka (actually majoring in Judo in college) and the UFC has high hopes for him.  Tan should be a solid test.  Tan lost to Marcus Davis in his only UFC fight, but showed strong striking ability before being KOed by Davis.  Kim will try to take it to the mat while Tan will try to keep it standing.
Prediction: Kim sub Round 1

Wellisch Vs. Carwin
Carwin is a physical specimen.  He is 8-0 and fought a total of 7 minutes 20 seconds.  He is the new breed of HW along the likes of Velasquez and Lesnar.  His last fight he beat Sherman Pendergrast who has fought in the UFC, but otherwise no one of note is on his record.  Wellisch will be a strong test for Carwin, but if Carwin is as good as advertised he should be able to overpower Wellisch and win the fight with powerful wrestling and ground and pound.  At 3-1 in the UFC Wellisch has been there and down that, but he hasn't faced anyone with the size or wrestling ability of Carwin.  This will be the classic wrestler vs. BJJ practioner fight, similar to Lesnar vs. Mir in that regard.
Prediction: Carwin TKO round 1
2023 Historical Draft - Brooklyn Nets - 9th pick

Bigs - Pau, Amar'e, Issel, McGinnis, Roundfield
Wings - Dantley, Bowen, J. Jackson
Guards - Cheeks, Petrovic, Buse, Rip

Re: UFC 84 Ill Will - Preview and Predictions
« Reply #1 on: May 25, 2008, 01:57:28 AM »

Offline earl

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Very impressive showing by BJ. I was surprised that this never went to the ground, Sherk being a wrestler and BJ being the BJJ master. He really picked Sherk apart the entire fight. BJ vs. GSP? :o

Nice to see Wandy get a win, Jardine seems so inconsistent fight to fight. At times he looks like a title contender (knocking around Liddell), and then getting pummeled like that tonight just tosses him back into the mix of fighters looking to set themselves apart.

Pretty much what I expected from Tito. Personally, I think Dana White is spot on with his attitude. He wants to be a big shot, get the attention, and doesn't have the fire anymore to really maximize his skill.

Anyways, I'm really looking forward to the Faber/Pulver matchup.. :)

Re: UFC 84 Ill Will - Preview and Predictions
« Reply #2 on: May 25, 2008, 10:21:57 AM »

Online Moranis

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Quick Results:
Shane Carwin def. Christian Wellisch by TKO (Strikes on the ground) at :44 seconds, R1
Dong-Hyun Kim def. Jason Tan by TKO (Strikes on the ground) at :25 seconds, R3
Yoshiyuki Yoshida def. Jon Koppenhaver by submission (Anaconda choke) at 0:56 seconds, R1
Rich Clementi def. Terry Etim by unanimous decision (29-28 on all 3 judges' cards) R3
Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou def. Kazuhiro Nakamura by TKO (referee's stoppage between rounds) at 5:00,
Rousimar Palhares def. Ivan Salaverry by submission (armbar) at 2:36, R1
Thiago Silva def. Antonio Mendes by TKO (Strikes on the ground) at 2:24, R1
Lyoto Machida def. Tito Ortiz by unanimous decision (30-27 on all judges' scorecards) R3
Goran Reljic def. Wilson Gouveia by TKO (Strikes on the ground) at 3:15, R2
Wanderlei Silva def. Keith Jardine by KO (Strikes on the ground) at :36 seconds, R1
B.J. Penn def. Sean Sherk by TKO (referee's stoppage) at 5:00, R3
2023 Historical Draft - Brooklyn Nets - 9th pick

Bigs - Pau, Amar'e, Issel, McGinnis, Roundfield
Wings - Dantley, Bowen, J. Jackson
Guards - Cheeks, Petrovic, Buse, Rip

Re: UFC 84 Ill Will - Preview and Predictions
« Reply #3 on: May 26, 2008, 04:28:26 PM »

Offline ChampKind

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Reljic looked like a smaller, younger Cro Cop.  Not entirely comfortable in the UFC ring, but great striking and a suspect ground game.  I'll be keeping an eye on him, since he's both my countryman and an exciting young fighter in the organization's deepest division.

Great card all around, from Jardine getting rocked to the undercard KO of the night in the heavyweight bout.
CB Draft Bucks: Chris Paul, Dwight Howard, Tobias Harris, Zach LaVine, Aaron Afflalo, Jeff Green, Donatas Motiejunas, Jarrett Jack, Frank Kaminsky, Lance Stephenson, JaVale McGee, Shane Larkin, Nick Young

DKC Bucks. Also terrible.

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