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61
Patriots / Football / Re: 2024 NFL Draft
« Last post by Celtics2021 on Yesterday at 11:26:37 AM »
Does there seem to be a consensus about who the first nine players that will be drafted are?

In some order:  Williams, Daniels, Maye, McCarthy, Harrison, Odunze, Nabers, Alt, Turner

The presumption seems to be that one of Minnesota, Denver or Vegas will trade up into the top nine for McCarthy.

Do others agree?

I understand that those seem to be the top 9 people are coalescing around, but I find it very difficult to believe that when draft day rolls around, 7 of the first 9 picks will be QBs and WRs, and 8 of the top 9 coming on offense.

I also think McCarthy goes in the top 3, and one of Maye or Daniels slides down to QB4.

From a historic perspective you're right about the oddity of such much offensive focus, but is there a defender worthy of being picked in the top-9 outside of Turner?

The only other guy I feel really good about from a skill perspective is Latu.  The guy is a beast.  But, he's also had severe neck issues in the past.

But yeah, I guess the smart money would be that somebody unexpected gets picked, just because these things never go according to chalk.

I could see Mitchell cracking the top 9, because teams are always after a CB1.  Perhaps Jared Verse from Florida State could jump up there as well, given the value of Edges.
62
Patriots / Football / Re: 2024 NFL Draft
« Last post by Roy H. on Yesterday at 11:14:18 AM »
Does there seem to be a consensus about who the first nine players that will be drafted are?

In some order:  Williams, Daniels, Maye, McCarthy, Harrison, Odunze, Nabers, Alt, Turner

The presumption seems to be that one of Minnesota, Denver or Vegas will trade up into the top nine for McCarthy.

Do others agree?

I understand that those seem to be the top 9 people are coalescing around, but I find it very difficult to believe that when draft day rolls around, 7 of the first 9 picks will be QBs and WRs, and 8 of the top 9 coming on offense.

I also think McCarthy goes in the top 3, and one of Maye or Daniels slides down to QB4.

From a historic perspective you're right about the oddity of such much offensive focus, but is there a defender worthy of being picked in the top-9 outside of Turner?

The only other guy I feel really good about from a skill perspective is Latu.  The guy is a beast.  But, he's also had severe neck issues in the past.

But yeah, I guess the smart money would be that somebody unexpected gets picked, just because these things never go according to chalk. 
63
Patriots / Football / Re: 2024 NFL Draft
« Last post by Celtics2021 on Yesterday at 10:56:20 AM »
Does there seem to be a consensus about who the first nine players that will be drafted are?

In some order:  Williams, Daniels, Maye, McCarthy, Harrison, Odunze, Nabers, Alt, Turner

The presumption seems to be that one of Minnesota, Denver or Vegas will trade up into the top nine for McCarthy.

Do others agree?

I understand that those seem to be the top 9 people are coalescing around, but I find it very difficult to believe that when draft day rolls around, 7 of the first 9 picks will be QBs and WRs, and 8 of the top 9 coming on offense.

I also think McCarthy goes in the top 3, and one of Maye or Daniels slides down to QB4.
64
Patriots / Football / Re: 2024 NFL Draft
« Last post by Roy H. on Yesterday at 10:45:39 AM »
Does there seem to be a consensus about who the first nine players that will be drafted are?

In some order:  Williams, Daniels, Maye, McCarthy, Harrison, Odunze, Nabers, Alt, Turner

The presumption seems to be that one of Minnesota, Denver or Vegas will trade up into the top nine for McCarthy.

Do others agree?

65
Patriots / Football / Re: NFL 2023-24 Off-Season
« Last post by Celtics2021 on Yesterday at 10:32:56 AM »
They need to do something about the QBs. You breathe on a QB and that's a 15-yard penalty. Everyone scared of tackling Patrick Mahomes. We need guys who aren't afraid to dive on Mahomes' knees the same way TJ Ward dove on Gronk.

I don't want people trying to injure QBs, but I would love roughing the passer calls to be reviewable and a rule against the "pretend to duck out of bounds but then take another few steps and reach for the first down" crap that some QBs do. Get rid of some of the loopholes.

Honestly I think pretending to go out of bounds and then not doing so should be a 5-yard penalty, similar to that for an invalid fair catch signal.
66
Patriots / Football / Re: NFL 2023-24 Off-Season
« Last post by BitterJim on Yesterday at 10:15:47 AM »
They need to do something about the QBs. You breathe on a QB and that's a 15-yard penalty. Everyone scared of tackling Patrick Mahomes. We need guys who aren't afraid to dive on Mahomes' knees the same way TJ Ward dove on Gronk.

I don't want people trying to injure QBs, but I would love roughing the passer calls to be reviewable and a rule against the "pretend to duck out of bounds but then take another few steps and reach for the first down" crap that some QBs do. Get rid of some of the loopholes.
67
Celtics Talk / Re: Blown leads
« Last post by Celtics2021 on Yesterday at 10:03:14 AM »
https://twitter.com/TA1297/status/1772621938579357969

This is interesting.

It is, although I think they misstated the data about 10-point blown leads.

https://champsorchumps.us/records/most-nba-blown-leads-in-2024

Overall info on "blown leads" doesn't tell us much, because leading 1-0 and then losing counts as a blown lead.  (Interestingly, if we've blown 13 leads, that means that we've had two games where we didn't lead at all.)  But, the 10 point leads stat is interesting to me.  I'd like to see even more broken down:  15 point leads, 20 point leads, 15 point leads in the second half, etc.

I think ultimately (hopefully?) we see this as a concern simply because these losses are 1) memorable and 2) self-inflicted.  They feed into all the negative narratives of this team not having the right mentality, of not being tough, of losing to lesser teams, etc.

Provided I'm reading correctly and you are only interested in blown leads, +15  etc. is pretty easy to parse for the Celtics because we've lost so few games this season - shouldn't be too difficult to chart this via available BBR details if anyone has an afternoon.

To be meaningful, we'd probably have to have league-wide data, and then do it as a percentage.

For instance:  the Celtics blew six 15+ point leads, but held a 15+ point lead in 50 games, etc.

And then compare that to all teams, to see if we're in any way an outlier.  Then, if so, somebody could determine if there were certain personnel groups more likely to contribute to those blown leads, whether coaching factors played in, etc.

I'm assuming that the NBA teams have the ability to look at that data, whether it's a computer or intern compiling the data. 

================================================================

One thing I'd like to see in particular: is there a pattern in which blown leads are correlated with a lot of 3PT misses?  Do teams that shoot the most 3PTs / teams with the lowest 3PT% suffer more blown leads?  If so, does the "diversify the offense / attack the basket" strategy change these negative streaks?  I know the timeout issue as a means of breaking momentum has been studied a bit, too, which is something I have interest in.  Basically, what are the factors that mitigate negative momentum?

Earlier in the thread I gave the 10-point blown lead stats.  The Celtics have an .864 winning percentage in games they lead by 10, so they lost 13.6% of such games (did those calculations myself if people want to double-check).  An ESPN article published after the game on Monday said the leaguewide percentage was 22.9% of 10-point leads wound up in losses.  So this year the Celtics don’t appear to blow leads at any kind of irregular rate, if anything it’s below average, and have just blown more because they’ve had such a lead in 82% of their games.  You’d probably see the same thing with 15-point leads, except that because there are fewer 10-point leads than 15-point leads you’d have a smaller sample to draw conclusions from (and so on with 20-point leads, etc).
68
Patriots / Football / Re: NFL 2023-24 Off-Season
« Last post by BitterJim on Yesterday at 09:59:18 AM »
So now I guess the new kickoff rules is there are no more fair catches and more attempts at returning for TD. And only the kicker and returner can move before the ball lands or is caught by the R, while the rest of the players remain lined up or frozen until it happens.

Copied the XFL on this. I'll miss the days of Devin Hester doing those iconic tough return TDs. NFL wants to promote more scoring. Would be interesting to see how those line of players being trained to react once the ball is caught or landed.

What about onside kicks? Waiting for the ball to  hit the ground or hit a player changes that play significantly.  And who is the returner in that case — if the ball is kicked between two players and both move to the ball

You can alert the referee and line up for an on sides kick. Kind of like lining up for a 2 point conversion.

With the fun caveat that lining up for an inside kick and doing a normal kick instead results in the other team getting the ball at the kicking team's 20 (which is probably the biggest penalty rule I've ever seen). So there's no surprise squib kicks allowed either, and I guess the receiving team will be able to have 11 players up to field the inside try instead on needing to leave a returner back.
69
Game Threads / Re: Celtics (57-14) at Hawks (31-39) Game #72 3/25/24
« Last post by celticinorlando on Yesterday at 09:26:55 AM »
Wait. The Bucks just blew a 19 point 4th quarter lead to a LeBron-less Lakers team. I guess the Bucks don’t have what it takes and Giannis and Dame are frauds too. 🤔

No no no, don't you see. That was a fantastic loss for the Bucks. Orchestrated by the genius of Doc Rivers getting his team ready for adversity!

It wasn't even a loss for the Bucks and their superior roster to the Celtics. It was an exercise in character building that will only make them better. The regular season does not matter for the Bucks or any other team (but Boston) and the poor Celtics have no chance to win anything because of what happened in the past. Remember, if the Cs play the Heat or Bucks it is a coin flip who will win and if the Celtics don't sweep every team in the playoffs and win each game by double digits, it is not good enough...
70
Red Sox / MLB / Re: 2023-24 MLB Offseason
« Last post by Phantom255x on Yesterday at 09:20:10 AM »
Quote
Left-hander Jordan Montgomery and the Arizona Diamondbacks are in agreement on a one-year, $25 million contract that includes a vesting player option for a second season, sources told ESPN on Tuesday night, bolstering the National League champions' rotation with the postseason standout from the team that beat them in the World Series.

I've got to say, I'm shocked that he got such a minimal contract.  The Red Sox should have beaten that, but really about 25 teams should have.

Red Sox aren't even trying. Hell, I'd argue they should have just signed both Snell + Montgomery this offseason if this was the going rates (2/62M Snell, 2/50M Montgomery). No joke, that alone could have made them an automatic playoff team IMO. And it's not really risky because it's only 2-year deals.
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