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Celtics Basketball => Celtics Talk => Topic started by: CFAN38 on August 07, 2018, 12:05:21 PM

Title: Predicting Early rotation
Post by: CFAN38 on August 07, 2018, 12:05:21 PM
The rotation is going to be a tough puzzle for BS this season.

Assuming 100% health this is my prediction to start the year.

Starters

Irving 32mpg

Brown 31mpg

Tatum 34mpg

Hayward 32mpg

Horford 30mpg

Bench

Smart 28mpg

Rozier 20mpg

Morris 18mpg

Baynes 15mpg

Notes:

Morris will likely have to play some minutes as a small ball 5 in order to get on the court.

Baynes will see his min fluctuate based on match-ups

Against most teams I suspect we will see Tatum as the first player subbed out likely for Smart. It will make sense for the Cs to stagger Irving, Tatum and Hayward in a way that one of the 3 is always on the court.
Title: Re: Predicting Early rotation
Post by: bellerephon on August 07, 2018, 01:13:07 PM
I think Theis gets regular minutes, and I doubt there are as many guys over 30 mpg as suggested here, but otherwise itís the most likely lineup.
Title: Re: Predicting Early rotation
Post by: Evantime34 on August 07, 2018, 01:45:32 PM
The rotation is going to be a tough puzzle for BS this season.

Assuming 100% health this is my prediction to start the year.

Starters

Irving 32mpg

Brown 31mpg

Tatum 34mpg

Hayward 32mpg

Horford 30mpg

Bench

Smart 28mpg

Rozier 20mpg

Morris 18mpg

Baynes 15mpg

Notes:

Morris will likely have to play some minutes as a small ball 5 in order to get on the court.

Baynes will see his min fluctuate based on match-ups

Against most teams I suspect we will see Tatum as the first player subbed out likely for Smart. It will make sense for the Cs to stagger Irving, Tatum and Hayward in a way that one of the 3 is always on the court.
If the team is as good as I expect I think the starters minutes will be pushed down due to blowing bad teams out.
Title: Re: Predicting Early rotation
Post by: Rosco917 on August 07, 2018, 01:56:38 PM
Hayward will play less than 32 minutes a game, especially for the first half of the season, and also Irving. Due to both players coming off surgery. 

It's going to be a while before Hayward gains confidence in that foot. He may start games but will be the first player to be substituted for IMO.

Lucky for him and the team that the C's are so deep at SF.
Title: Re: Predicting Early rotation
Post by: Silas on August 07, 2018, 02:30:05 PM
I just checked the minutes for the 85/86 Celts.  I've put my guess and corresponding player next to each old timer (some numbers are rounded)...

Bird - 38 min   --      Hayward - 30
McHale - 35    --       Tatum - 32
DJ - 35        --          Irving - 35
Parish - 32   --         Horford -  28
Danny - 30   --         Brown -  32
  sub total - 170      sub total - 157
Sichting - 20   --       Rozier - 22
Walton - 19     --       Baynes - 15
Wedman - 18  --       Morris  - 15
Carlisle - 10    --       Smart -  25
  sub total -  67       sub total -  77
Williams - 9       --      Theis  -  6
Thirdkill - 8
Vincent - 8
Kite - 7

My guess is that Irving, Tatum, and Brown get the most minutes and finish a tight game with Hayward and Horford. 
Title: Re: Predicting Early rotation
Post by: Chris22 on August 07, 2018, 04:02:11 PM
Baynes will start against some centers.
Title: Re: Predicting Early rotation
Post by: bellerephon on August 07, 2018, 04:08:38 PM
Yes, Baynes will likely get a few starts depending on match ups. I also doubt that Brad will have a nine or ten man rotation during the regular season. I think Semi, Bird, and maybe even Yabu will get some minutes here and there. They won't get down to the ten man rotation until it gets closer to playoff time.
Title: Re: Predicting Early rotation
Post by: mgent on August 07, 2018, 04:43:01 PM
Kyrie 32 / Rozier 16
Brown 32 / Smart 16
Hayward 32 / Smart 16
Tatum 32 / Morris 16
Horford 32 / Baynes 16
Title: Re: Predicting Early rotation
Post by: ImShakHeIsShaq on August 07, 2018, 05:52:37 PM
Healthy-ish team, CBS is going to try his hardest to keep starters around 32 mins, it's what he does. I hope blowouts force us into playing them 30. We will be as fresh as a team can be if it works out. Our bench is potentially better than any bench GSW has ever had!
Title: Re: Predicting Early rotation
Post by: gouki88 on August 07, 2018, 08:17:30 PM
Kyrie 32 / Rozier 16
Brown 32 / Smart 16
Hayward 32 / Smart 16
Tatum 32 / Morris 16
Horford 32 / Baynes 16
There is simply no way Smart plays doubles the minutes that Rozier and Morris do
Title: Re: Predicting Early rotation
Post by: Csfan1984 on August 07, 2018, 10:15:20 PM
All healthy I'd want to plan for everyone under 30 minutes unless they are having a hot night. Minutes per position avg for the main rotation I list below. There is a balance of unclaimed minutes that would go to the best playing guys that night or to the end of the bench guys

PG- Irving 28, Rozier 12, Smart 6
SG- Brown 26, Smart 12, Rozier 6
SF- Hayward 26, Morris 7, Tatum 7, Semi 5
PF- Tatum 20, Horford 10, Morris 12, Theis 5
C- Horford 15, Baynes 15, Theis 10

That's an 11 man nightly rotation.
Guards-Irving 28, Smart 18, Rozier 18
Wings-Hayward 26, Brown 26, Tatum 27, Morris 19, Semi 5
Bigs-Horford 25, Baynes 15, Theis 15
Title: Re: Predicting Early rotation
Post by: KGs Knee on August 07, 2018, 10:58:55 PM
Irving - 32
Tatum - 32
Brown - 32
Horford - 30
Hayward - 28
Smart - 23
Rozier - 23
Morris - 15
Baynes - 15
Theis - 10
Title: Re: Predicting Early rotation
Post by: CELTICSofBOSTON on August 07, 2018, 11:28:31 PM
POINT GUARD:
30 Kyrie Irving
10 Marcus Smart
8  Terry Rozier

TWO GUARD:
12 Jaylen Brown
18 Marcus Smart
18 Terry Rozier

SMALL FORWARD:
20 Gordon Hayward
18 Jaylen Brown
10 Jayson Tatum

POWER FORWARD:
20 Jayson Tatum
16 Marcus Morris
8  Gordon Hayward
4  Al Horford

CENTER:
24 Al Horford
14 Aron Baynes
10 Daniel Theis

Keeps everyone at or under 30 total minutes which will hopefully keep everyone fresh for the playoffs especially our vets and players coming off injury.  Unfortunately Semi Ojeleye and Robert Williams wonít play much.  Also, Daniel Theis and Aaron Baynes wonít play nearly as much as they should.  Theyíre both so good.  Ideally Marcus Morris would be left out of the rotation which would leave more minutes for Al at the 4 and more minutes for Baynes and Theis who are more valuable players.  Unfortunately, I donít see that happening. Semi Ojeleye or Robert Williams could also take some of those 16 minutes.  Brad Wanamaker, Jabari Bird, and Guerschon Yabusele will be the deep reserves.
Title: Re: Predicting Early rotation
Post by: iadera on August 08, 2018, 04:22:40 AM
I truly believe Robert Williams is gonna have some minutes, at least against lottery teams.
Title: Re: Predicting Early rotation
Post by: RockinRyA on August 08, 2018, 06:14:32 AM
Starters will average 20 mins a game. Each game will be over at the half. Robert Williams will lead the Celtics in mpg. 82-0 baby!
Title: Re: Predicting Early rotation
Post by: Vermont Green on August 08, 2018, 08:54:28 AM
In my thinking, the uncertainty is with the bigs.  You need to cover 96 minutes and I don't think Tatum is going to play all that many of them:

Bigs
Horford      30
Baynes      18
Morris       20
Theis        18
(Tatum      10)

Wings
Brown       32
Tatum       22 (32 Total)
Hayward    28
Rozier       14

PG
Irving      26
Smart     18
Rozier      4 (18 Total)

This accounts for the expectation that Hayward and Irving will miss games for rest and is based on the average over 82 games, not the average in the games they play in.  Smart and Rozier get short-changed because of the need to play Morris and Theis more.  There will probably be trades or injuries that allow the roster to balance out.
Title: Re: Predicting Early rotation
Post by: Boston Garden Leprechaun on August 08, 2018, 09:37:51 AM
sure:

liam

chief

bring toughness back

boston garden leprechaun

c's fan since 60's


we will see who wants to come off bench later

Title: Re: Predicting Early rotation
Post by: mgent on August 08, 2018, 05:38:56 PM
Kyrie 32 / Rozier 16
Brown 32 / Smart 16
Hayward 32 / Smart 16
Tatum 32 / Morris 16
Horford 32 / Baynes 16
There is simply no way Smart plays doubles the minutes that Rozier and Morris do

Why not?
Title: Re: Predicting Early rotation
Post by: gouki88 on August 08, 2018, 08:06:04 PM
Kyrie 32 / Rozier 16
Brown 32 / Smart 16
Hayward 32 / Smart 16
Tatum 32 / Morris 16
Horford 32 / Baynes 16
There is simply no way Smart plays doubles the minutes that Rozier and Morris do

Why not?
Because Smart isn't nearly good enough to warrant that. And he only played 3mpg more than Morris, and 4mpg more than Rozier last year.