CelticsStrong
Celtics Basketball => Celtics Talk => Topic started by: Birdman on July 21, 2018, 03:11:11 PM
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Danny Ainge since 2003 has more misses than hits:
Hits:
Jatson Tatum
Jaylen Brown
Terry Rozier
Marcus Smart
Avery Bradley
Tony Allen
Jeff Green-traded for Allen
Al Jefferson-traded for KG
Kendrick Perkins
So-So:
Ryan Gomes
Delonte West
Gerald Green
Glen Davis
Kelly Olynk
Jury still out:
Guershon Yasbele
Semi Ojeleye
Jabari Bird
Misses:
Kadeem Allen
Demetrius Jackson
Ben Bentill
Abdel Nader
RJ Hunter
Jordan Mickey
James Young
Jared Sullinger
Fab Melo
Luke Haragody
Lester Hudson
JR Giddens
Semih Ersan
Gabe Pruitt
Randy Foye
Orien Greene
Kris Joseph
Marshon Brooks
ETwaun Moore
Justin Reed
Troy Bell
Dahntay Jones
Brandon Hunter
Geez, Danny has no luck after middle of 1st round..lot of misses in late and no luck in 2nd rounds..
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Try doing the same list for other GMs and I'll thank you later.
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Presented devoid of any context at all.
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Where's Glen Davis, Olynyk and Perk, and how on Earth is E'Twaun Moore a miss at #55 when he's going into his 8th season and making $9 million a year?
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Danny Ainge since 2003 has more misses than hits:
Hits:
Jatson Tatum
Jaylen Brown
Terry Rozier
Marcus Smart
Avery Bradley
Tony Allen
Jeff Green-traded for Allen
Al Jefferson-traded for KG
So-So:
Ryan Gomes
Delonte West
Gerald Green
Jury still out:
Guershon Yasbele
Semi Ojeleye
Jabari Bird
Misses:
Kadeem Allen
Demetrius Jackson
Ben Bentill
Abdel Nader
RJ Hunter
Jordan Mickey
James Young
Jared Sullinger
Fab Melo
Luke Haragody
Lester Hudson
JR Giddens
Semih Ersan
Gabe Pruitt
Randy Foye
Orien Greene
Kris Joseph
Marshon Brooks
ETwaun Moore
Justin Reed
Troy Bell
Dahntay Jones
Brandon Hunter
Geez, Danny has no luck after middle of 1st round..lot of misses in late and no luck in 2nd rounds..
try to place these within the context of other GMs in the nba. what percentage of players from each part of the draft make it to the nba as bench, starter, star players? then compare ainge's picks from the same range.
when ever that is done, ainge does pretty well.
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Where's Glen Davis, Olynyk and Perk, and how on Earth is E'Twaun Moore a miss at #55 when he's going into his 8th season and making $9 million a year?
miss with us..oops forgot those 3..thanks
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You left out Leon Powe as a hit
Troy Bell needs to be removed. He never played a game for us and was a selection made for the grizzlies as part of a trade.
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https://www.reddit.com/r/bostonceltics/comments/6f0ymx/mythbusters_redux_dannys_drafting_record/
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https://www.reddit.com/r/bostonceltics/comments/6f0ymx/mythbusters_redux_dannys_drafting_record/
TP
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Danny is much better than he used to be.
Gabe Pruitt and JR Giddens are the two that killed me.
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You left out Leon Powe as a hit
Troy Bell needs to be removed. He never played a game for us and was a selection made for the grizzlies as part of a trade.
Powe was drafted by Denver then traded to Boston..i just putting who Ainge pick in draft
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Marshon Brooks, Randy Foye, Dahntay Jones were all part of draft day trades and were selected for other teams as well.
Also whats your definition of success for a 2nd round pick? Lots of people would say that if a late second round pick makes the roster and plays meaningful minutes in games, especially if your team is contending, thats a success.
Semih Erden had a short NBA career, but he was picked at #60 and came off the bench and contributed for us as a back up center in a year that we were contending. I would consider that a success, and you can make this same argument for some of the other players on that Miss list
Etwaun Moore should not be on the Miss list
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You left out Leon Powe as a hit
Troy Bell needs to be removed. He never played a game for us and was a selection made for the grizzlies as part of a trade.
Powe was drafted by Denver then traded to Boston..i just putting who Ainge pick in draft
yeah but on draft day trades more often than not the GM selecting the player is making that pick for the other team
shows how much thought went into this list
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shows how much thought went into this list
I think that the OP has more misses than hits ;D
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You really Hol against him , that he had a lot of "misses" late in the first and in the second round? ::)
Late firsts and second rounders are misses most of the time...
Besides Sully and Etwaun are no "misses"...
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This guy on reddit did a ranking of all GM's based on drafting ability. His evaluation process and methodology is much more well thought out than yours. https://www.reddit.com/r/nba/comments/8v1awu/oc_a_new_statistic_evaluating_every_draft_pick/
It's a cool post, with lots of ins and outs, but the upshot of it re the Celtics is that Danny Ainge is a top 5 Drafter in NBA HISTORY (or at least top 10).
(https://i.imgur.com/313GfDv.png)
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Where's Rondo? 4 time All-Star, multiple time All-Defense player and World Champion. Where's Rondo?
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Where's Rondo? 4 time All-Star, multiple time All-Defense player and World Champion. Where's Rondo?
Yeah. Rondo has a good case for being the best player ever selected in his draft spot.
http://www.basketballinsiders.com/history-of-the-nba-draft-by-pick/history-of-the-nba-draft-pick-number-21/
This “Ainge can’t draft” thing is one of the all time great Celticsblog zombie threads. Every few years it shambles back onto the board and people shotgun it into pieces...but it ALWAYS COMES BACK.
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Where's Rondo? 4 time All-Star, multiple time All-Defense player and World Champion. Where's Rondo?
Yeah. Rondo has a good case for being the best player ever selected in his draft spot.
http://www.basketballinsiders.com/history-of-the-nba-draft-by-pick/history-of-the-nba-draft-pick-number-21/
This “Ainge can’t draft” thing is one of the all time great Celticsblog zombie threads. Every few years it shambles back onto the board and people shotgun it into pieces...but it ALWAYS COMES BACK.
Bring back Antoine Walker threads used to be the same way. Thank god those threads became extinct.
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Ainge gets better every year at drafting. He has not found a diamond in the the rough but Rondo and Rozier are rubies.
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You left out Leon Powe as a hit
Troy Bell needs to be removed. He never played a game for us and was a selection made for the grizzlies as part of a trade.
Powe was drafted by Denver then traded to Boston..i just putting who Ainge pick in draft
yeah but on draft day trades more often than not the GM selecting the player is making that pick for the other team
shows how much thought went into this list
My favorite part is that Olynyk is still on the list, even though by OP's logic he was selected by the Mavs
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Danny is much better than he used to be.
Gabe Pruitt and JR Giddens are the two that killed me.
A college quasi gf (more like dated for 4 months never fb official but we werent w/ other people either) cheated on me with him in summer 2009. Does this go in the "hit" category now?
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Redo your list. Here's how it should look like.
1st rounders
Hit
Kendrick Perkins (2003)
Al Jefferson (2004)
Tony Allen (2004)
Delonte West (2004)
Gerald Green (2005)
Rajon Rondo (2006)
Avery Bradley (2010)
Jared Sullinger (2012)
Kelly Olynyk (2013)
Marcus Smart (2014)
Terry Rozier (2015)
Jaylen Brown (2016)
Jayson Tatum (2017)
Miss
Marcus Banks (2003)
JR Giddens (2008)
Jajuan Johnson (2011)
Fab Melo (2012)
James Young (2014)
RJ Hunter (2015)
Guerschon Yabusele and Robert Williams are TBD at the moment.
Note that Jeff Green, Marshon Brooks, Randy Foye and Lucas Noguiera don't count because they were traded in the draft day.
2nd rounders
hit
Ryan Gomes (2005)
Leon Powe (2006)
Glen Davis (2007)
E'twaun Moore (2011)
Semi Ojeleye (2017)
Jabari Bird (2017)
miss
Justin Reed (2004)
Orien Greene (2005)
Gabe Pruitt (2007)
Bill Walker (2008)
Semih Erden (2008)
Lester Hudson (2009)
Luke Harangody (2010)
Kris Joseph (2012)
Colton Iverson (2013)
Ben Bentil (2016)
Demitrius Jackson (2016)
Abdel Nader (2016)
Kadeem Allen (2017)
I'll reserve my judgement about Jordan Mickey since he's still in the league.
Ainge have more miss in the 2nd than in the 1st, but so does all the GMs. I can list many players that Spurs and OKC have missed too. 2nd round is a great place to gamble because you don't lose much with them.
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Redo your list. Here's how it should look like.
1st rounders
Hit
Kendrick Perkins (2003)
Al Jefferson (2004)
Tony Allen (2004)
Delonte West (2004)
Gerald Green (2005)
Rajon Rondo (2006)
Avery Bradley (2010)
Jared Sullinger (2012)
Kelly Olynyk (2013)
Marcus Smart (2014)
Terry Rozier (2015)
Jaylen Brown (2016)
Jayson Tatum (2017)
2nd Rounders
Miss
Marcus Banks (2003)
JR Giddens (2008)
Jajuan Johnson (2011)
Fab Melo (2012)
James Young (2014)
RJ Hunter (2015)
Guerschon Yabusele and Robert Williams are TBA at the moment.
Note that Jeff Green, Marshon Brooks, Randy Foye and Lucas Noguiera don't count because they were traded in the draft day.
2nd rounders
hit
Ryan Gomes (2005)
Leon Powe (2006)
Glen Davis (2007)
E'twaun Moore (2011)
Semi Ojeleye (2017)
Jabari Bird (2017)
miss
Justin Reed (2004)
Orien Greene (2005)
Gabe Pruitt (2007)
Bill Walker (2008)
Semih Erden (2008)
Lester Hudson (2009)
Luke Harangody (2010)
Kris Joseph (2012)
Colton Iverson (2013)
Ben Bentil (2016)
Demitrius Jackson (2016)
Abdel Nader (2016)
Kadeem Allen (2017)
I'll reserve my judgement about Jordan Mickey since he's still in the league.
Ainge have more miss in the 2nd than in the 1st, but so does all the GMs. I can list many players that Spurs and OKC have missed too. 2nd round is a great place to gamble because you don't lose much with them.
Very well done. TP
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I keep seeing people make the claim that Ainge has become a much better drafter in recent years. I'm not saying he hasn't improved but how much of this perception is a result of high draft picks and having Brad Stevens?
Ainge looks bulletproof because of the success Brown and Tatum had last season. Smart is also a "hit" within the context of our team. The things we love about Smart wouldn't be relevant on a loser franchise. The reality is that Ainge's track record has always been strong on draft picks within the top 20 (21 including Rondo and Sully).
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I keep seeing people make the claim that Ainge has become a much better drafter in recent years. I'm not saying he hasn't improved but how much of this perception is a result of high draft picks and having Brad Stevens?
Ainge looks bulletproof because of the success Brown and Tatum had last season. Smart is also a "hit" within the context of our team. The things we love about Smart wouldn't be relevant on a loser franchise. The reality is that Ainge's track record has always been strong on draft picks within the top 20 (21 including Rondo and Sully).
You could also say that he wasn't as good because of low draft picks.
He could obviously have drafted better (take a risk with giannis for example) but he didn't completely messed it up like drafting Bennet 1st or Bender 4th or even Papagannis 13th. We avoided that kind of criminally bad picks and by just looking around the league that is not so easy
Like every gable you lose miss more often than you hit
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Danny Ainge since 2003 has more misses than hits:
Hits:
Jatson Tatum
Jaylen Brown
Terry Rozier
Marcus Smart
Avery Bradley
Tony Allen
Jeff Green-traded for Allen
Al Jefferson-traded for KG
Kendrick Perkins
So-So:
Ryan Gomes
Delonte West
Gerald Green
Glen Davis
Kelly Olynk
Jury still out:
Guershon Yasbele
Semi Ojeleye
Jabari Bird
Misses:
Kadeem Allen
Demetrius Jackson
Ben Bentill
Abdel Nader
RJ Hunter
Jordan Mickey
James Young
Jared Sullinger
Fab Melo
Luke Haragody
Lester Hudson
JR Giddens
Semih Ersan
Gabe Pruitt
Randy Foye
Orien Greene
Kris Joseph
Marshon Brooks
ETwaun Moore
Justin Reed
Troy Bell
Dahntay Jones
Brandon Hunter
Geez, Danny has no luck after middle of 1st round..lot of misses in late and no luck in 2nd rounds..
Kelly Olynyk is definitely a hit. He's signed through 2021 (player option in the last year and has a 5% trade kicker). Played high rotation minutes on a playoff team last season, and starter's minutes in the playoffs.
Dahntay Jones was drafted for Memphis. In any case, he had a good career as a role player. I'd call him a hit, but Danny doesn't get credit.
Similar situation with Randy Foye, drafted for Portland, and who by the way played eleven seasons.
E'Twaun Moore - definitely a hit. Played starter's minutes for a playoff team last year.
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Danny Ainge since 2003 has more misses than hits:
Hits:
Jatson Tatum
Jaylen Brown
Terry Rozier
Marcus Smart
Avery Bradley
Tony Allen
Jeff Green-traded for Allen
Al Jefferson-traded for KG
Kendrick Perkins
So-So:
Ryan Gomes
Delonte West
Gerald Green
Glen Davis
Kelly Olynk
Jury still out:
Guershon Yasbele
Semi Ojeleye
Jabari Bird
Misses:
Kadeem Allen
Demetrius Jackson
Ben Bentill
Abdel Nader
RJ Hunter
Jordan Mickey
James Young
Jared Sullinger
Fab Melo
Luke Haragody
Lester Hudson
JR Giddens
Semih Ersan
Gabe Pruitt
Randy Foye
Orien Greene
Kris Joseph
Marshon Brooks
ETwaun Moore
Justin Reed
Troy Bell
Dahntay Jones
Brandon Hunter
Geez, Danny has no luck after middle of 1st round..lot of misses in late and no luck in 2nd rounds..
Kelly Olynyk is definitely a hit. He's signed through 2021 (player option in the last year and has a 5% trade kicker). Played high rotation minutes on a playoff team last season, and starter's minutes in the playoffs.
Dahntay Jones was drafted for Memphis. In any case, he had a good career as a role player. I'd call him a hit, but Danny doesn't get credit.
Similar situation with Randy Foye, drafted for Portland, and who by the way played eleven seasons.
E'Twaun Moore - definitely a hit. Played starter's minutes for a playoff team last year.
Moore and gomes are giant hits. Gomes was drafted 50th
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Dumb threads like this one are probably the reason a lot of people stop coming here. Thankfully the majority of the comments were intelligent and informed the OP that he is quite foolish and doesn't seem to understand the NBA or how it works.
Let's do better Celticsblog.
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Ante Zizic ? Conspicuously absent. 8)
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Dumb threads like this one are probably the reason a lot of people stop coming here. Thankfully the majority of the comments were intelligent and informed the OP that he is quite foolish and doesn't seem to understand the NBA or how it works.
Let's do better Celticsblog.
thanks for calling me a fool which im not..if u known me, trust me, u wouldnt...also just putting on here my opinion..if ppl like it or not, its there opinion also..thats why its call a blog..just like me, i hire lot of ppl who were hit and misses
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This guy on reddit did a ranking of all GM's based on drafting ability. His evaluation process and methodology is much more well thought out than yours. https://www.reddit.com/r/nba/comments/8v1awu/oc_a_new_statistic_evaluating_every_draft_pick/
It's a cool post, with lots of ins and outs, but the upshot of it re the Celtics is that Danny Ainge is a top 5 Drafter in NBA HISTORY (or at least top 10).
(https://i.imgur.com/313GfDv.png)
So Red Auerbach, Larry Bird, R.C. Buford, Jerry Krause, and Jerry West aren't even in this dude's top five? Come on. ::)
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This guy on reddit did a ranking of all GM's based on drafting ability. His evaluation process and methodology is much more well thought out than yours. https://www.reddit.com/r/nba/comments/8v1awu/oc_a_new_statistic_evaluating_every_draft_pick/
It's a cool post, with lots of ins and outs, but the upshot of it re the Celtics is that Danny Ainge is a top 5 Drafter in NBA HISTORY (or at least top 10).
(https://i.imgur.com/313GfDv.png)
So Red Auerbach, Larry Bird, R.C. Buford, Jerry Krause, and Jerry West aren't even in this dude's top five? Come on. ::)
My bad. Apparently, it uses stats that weren't being recorded pre-2000.
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Have to wonder what would have become of James Young if he stayed another year at Kentucky. Sorry to see him miss the boat in such a big way. He had his chances but lacked desire.
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Have to wonder what would have become of James Young if he stayed another year at Kentucky. Sorry to see him miss the boat in such a big way. He had his chances but lacked desire.
his sophomore year would have been when Kentucky went undefeated until the Final Four game
https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/schools/kentucky/2015.html
That roster was stacked. Devin Booker and Tyler Ulis were backups...Starters were the Harrison twins, Trey Lyles, Cauley-Stein and KAT.
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here's another chart analyzing Danny's drafting performance
https://www.reddit.com/r/bostonceltics/comments/96ozjf/draftbusters_iii_updating_dannys_record/
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CBS will make him a better drafter
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Redo your list. Here's how it should look like.
1st rounders
Hit
Kendrick Perkins (2003)
Al Jefferson (2004)
Tony Allen (2004)
Delonte West (2004)
Gerald Green (2005)
Rajon Rondo (2006)
Avery Bradley (2010)
Jared Sullinger (2012)
Kelly Olynyk (2013)
Marcus Smart (2014)
Terry Rozier (2015)
Jaylen Brown (2016)
Jayson Tatum (2017)
Miss
Marcus Banks (2003)
JR Giddens (2008)
Jajuan Johnson (2011)
Fab Melo (2012)
James Young (2014)
RJ Hunter (2015)
Guerschon Yabusele and Robert Williams are TBD at the moment.
Note that Jeff Green, Marshon Brooks, Randy Foye and Lucas Noguiera don't count because they were traded in the draft day.
2nd rounders
hit
Ryan Gomes (2005)
Leon Powe (2006)
Glen Davis (2007)
E'twaun Moore (2011)
Semi Ojeleye (2017)
Jabari Bird (2017)
miss
Justin Reed (2004)
Orien Greene (2005)
Gabe Pruitt (2007)
Bill Walker (2008)
Semih Erden (2008)
Lester Hudson (2009)
Luke Harangody (2010)
Kris Joseph (2012)
Colton Iverson (2013)
Ben Bentil (2016)
Demitrius Jackson (2016)
Abdel Nader (2016)
Kadeem Allen (2017)
I'll reserve my judgement about Jordan Mickey since he's still in the league.
Ainge have more miss in the 2nd than in the 1st, but so does all the GMs. I can list many players that Spurs and OKC have missed too. 2nd round is a great place to gamble because you don't lose much with them.
A very nice list there.
Wonder if Bill Walker's couple of years gunning on the Knicks qualifies him as a non-bust. Never played one possession of competent defense, but played a few years and had some high scoring games in there as a regular rotation player on a crappy roster.
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Redo your list. Here's how it should look like.
1st rounders
Hit
Kendrick Perkins (2003)
Al Jefferson (2004)
Tony Allen (2004)
Delonte West (2004)
Gerald Green (2005)
Rajon Rondo (2006)
Avery Bradley (2010)
Jared Sullinger (2012)
Kelly Olynyk (2013)
Marcus Smart (2014)
Terry Rozier (2015)
Jaylen Brown (2016)
Jayson Tatum (2017)
Miss
Marcus Banks (2003)
JR Giddens (2008)
Jajuan Johnson (2011)
Fab Melo (2012)
James Young (2014)
RJ Hunter (2015)
Guerschon Yabusele and Robert Williams are TBD at the moment.
Note that Jeff Green, Marshon Brooks, Randy Foye and Lucas Noguiera don't count because they were traded in the draft day.
2nd rounders
hit
Ryan Gomes (2005)
Leon Powe (2006)
Glen Davis (2007)
E'twaun Moore (2011)
Semi Ojeleye (2017)
Jabari Bird (2017)
miss
Justin Reed (2004)
Orien Greene (2005)
Gabe Pruitt (2007)
Bill Walker (2008)
Semih Erden (2008)
Lester Hudson (2009)
Luke Harangody (2010)
Kris Joseph (2012)
Colton Iverson (2013)
Ben Bentil (2016)
Demitrius Jackson (2016)
Abdel Nader (2016)
Kadeem Allen (2017)
I'll reserve my judgement about Jordan Mickey since he's still in the league.
Ainge have more miss in the 2nd than in the 1st, but so does all the GMs. I can list many players that Spurs and OKC have missed too. 2nd round is a great place to gamble because you don't lose much with them.
A very nice list there.
Wonder if Bill Walker's couple of years gunning on the Knicks qualifies him as a non-bust. Never played one possession of competent defense, but played a few years and had some high scoring games in there as a regular rotation player on a crappy roster.
I just had the worst time trying to look up Bill Walker's stats on basketball-reference and finally figured out that he's listed there as Henry Walker. But I'm certain he was Bill when he was playing in Boston.
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Danny Ainge since 2003 has more misses than hits:
Hits:
Jatson Tatum
Jaylen Brown
Terry Rozier
Marcus Smart
Avery Bradley
Tony Allen
Jeff Green-traded for Allen
Al Jefferson-traded for KG
Kendrick Perkins
So-So:
Ryan Gomes
Delonte West
Gerald Green
Glen Davis
Kelly Olynk
Jury still out:
Guershon Yasbele
Semi Ojeleye
Jabari Bird
Misses:
Kadeem Allen
Demetrius Jackson
Ben Bentill
Abdel Nader
RJ Hunter
Jordan Mickey
James Young
Jared Sullinger
Fab Melo
Luke Haragody
Lester Hudson
JR Giddens
Semih Ersan
Gabe Pruitt
Randy Foye
Orien Greene
Kris Joseph
Marshon Brooks
ETwaun Moore
Justin Reed
Troy Bell
Dahntay Jones
Brandon Hunter
Geez, Danny has no luck after middle of 1st round..lot of misses in late and no luck in 2nd rounds..
Wow that's a long list of poo under misses.
His complete inability to find any value in the second round is somewhat baffling. You'd think just random chance would cause him to hit at least once.
Looking at the list it's pretty clear if he's drafting anything other than a guard outside the top 10 it's going to be a pretty suspect return.
TP. Nice data collection.
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A lot of people listing second rounders as misses. It seems that people don't realize the likelihood of a hit in the second round.
If a player is selected in the second round and there were no NBA players drafted after him I wouldn't count that as a miss because there were no better alternatives.
Id say Danny is batting above league average on second rounders.
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Danny Ainge since 2003 has more misses than hits:
Hits:
Jatson Tatum
Jaylen Brown
Terry Rozier
Marcus Smart
Avery Bradley
Tony Allen
Jeff Green-traded for Allen
Al Jefferson-traded for KG
Kendrick Perkins
So-So:
Ryan Gomes
Delonte West
Gerald Green
Glen Davis
Kelly Olynk
Jury still out:
Guershon Yasbele
Semi Ojeleye
Jabari Bird
Misses:
Kadeem Allen
Demetrius Jackson
Ben Bentill
Abdel Nader
RJ Hunter
Jordan Mickey
James Young
Jared Sullinger
Fab Melo
Luke Haragody
Lester Hudson
JR Giddens
Semih Ersan
Gabe Pruitt
Randy Foye
Orien Greene
Kris Joseph
Marshon Brooks
ETwaun Moore
Justin Reed
Troy Bell
Dahntay Jones
Brandon Hunter
Geez, Danny has no luck after middle of 1st round..lot of misses in late and no luck in 2nd rounds..
Wow that's a long list of poo under misses.
His complete inability to find any value in the second round is somewhat baffling. You'd think just random chance would cause him to hit at least once.
Looking at the list it's pretty clear if he's drafting anything other than a guard outside the top 10 it's going to be a pretty suspect return.
TP. Nice data collection.
"complete inability to find any value" in the second round? please read the list above more carefully and you will see the following second rounders all of whom made their way onto an nba team and received credible playing time:
ryan gomes
glen davis
semi ojeleye
etwuan moore
jabari bird
next, when assessing drafting abilities, we really need to ask how does ainge's picking stack up against other GMs with similar locations in the draft? that is, look at nba averages to find that out. you cannot understand ainge's drafts without that context. when put in to that context, ainge consistently comes out ahead of most other GMs.