CelticsStrong
Celtics Basketball => Celtics Talk => Topic started by: otherdave on June 13, 2018, 03:28:14 PM
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M Smart
A Baynes
M Morris
unless Smart agrees to play for the qualifying offer of $6,053,719 (unlikely).
This assumes that T Rozier will at least start the year in Boston, and that G Monroe is gone.
Of the three, I would like to see Mook get dealt for a future draft pick with little or no money coming back.
The resolution of Smart's RFA status is going to really have a domino effect on the composition of the 2nd unit.
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I think Morris is gone.
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I wonder if the sixers are willing to pay baynes more than we can afford
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This is most likely the case, although there’s an outside shot that the free agent market completely craters for the mid-level guys this summer. Including the Celtics, about 15 teams are in the tax or very well could be if they use their MLE. In one scenario, Smart might sign for $10 million, and Baynes might not even get the MLE because no one wants to use it, allowing the Celtics to sign him back for about what he got paid last season. (They would likely need to pay cash to someone to take on Nader in February, but that’s not likely to be difficult regardless of what happens this summer).
I don’t think this is likely — I’d put th odds no higher than 10% — but with the luxury tax concerns, and also a number of teams trying to keep their books clean for next summer’s free agency, it isn’t completely impossible.
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This is most likely the case, although there’s an outside shot that the free agent market completely craters for the mid-level guys this summer. Including the Celtics, about 15 teams are in the tax or very well could be if they use their MLE. In one scenario, Smart might sign for $10 million, and Baynes might not even get the MLE because no one wants to use it, allowing the Celtics to sign him back for about what he got paid last season. (They would likely need to pay cash to someone to take on Nader in February, but that’s not likely to be difficult regardless of what happens this summer).
I don’t think this is likely — I’d put th odds no higher than 10% — but with the luxury tax concerns, and also a number of teams trying to keep their books clean for next summer’s free agency, it isn’t completely impossible.
How close are we to the projected tax line? How much would selling our pick help?
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This is most likely the case, although there’s an outside shot that the free agent market completely craters for the mid-level guys this summer. Including the Celtics, about 15 teams are in the tax or very well could be if they use their MLE. In one scenario, Smart might sign for $10 million, and Baynes might not even get the MLE because no one wants to use it, allowing the Celtics to sign him back for about what he got paid last season. (They would likely need to pay cash to someone to take on Nader in February, but that’s not likely to be difficult regardless of what happens this summer).
I don’t think this is likely — I’d put th odds no higher than 10% — but with the luxury tax concerns, and also a number of teams trying to keep their books clean for next summer’s free agency, it isn’t completely impossible.
How close are we to the projected tax line? How much would selling our pick help?
Selling the pick wouldn’t likely help too much, although moving back from late round 1 to early round 2 would be interesting. Assuming we keep it, and sign Bird to the rookie minimum, we’d be a shade over $13 million from the line with 13 players under contract. So Smart at $10 million and Baynes at $4.4 would put us about Nader’s salary over the tax with 15 players, and we’d have until the trade deadline to dump him (or Yabusele if he doesn’t show enough in year 2).
I don’t think it likely that this scenario will occur — it’s not worth moving #27 to save a few hundred thousand (assuming you want someone else on the roster).
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How is Morris even an option? He has guaranteed salary next season.
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How is Morris even an option? He has guaranteed salary next season.
As the OP says, he’s hoping for a trade, which is not unrealistic.
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How is Morris even an option? He has guaranteed salary next season.
As the OP says, he’s hoping for a trade, which is not unrealistic.
Yeah, I would expect that he’d be easy to move, especially if we weren’t seeking a return.
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I'm thinking ~
We let Baynes walk ~ ):
We sign and trade Smart for $14,000 million and package him with the #27 for the Center in Orlando and a future 1st round pick.
Kyrie Rozier
Hayward Brown
Tatum Semi
AL Yabba daba do
N. V Thesis
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I'm thinking ~
We let Baynes walk ~ ):
We sign and trade Smart for $14,000 million and package him with the #27 for the Center in Orlando and a future 1st round pick.
Kyrie Rozier
Hayward Brown
Tatum Semi
AL Yabba daba do
N. V Thesis
I don't get why people like Nikola so much. I get that he's a great offensive center that can rebound, and has averaged 3.4 APG, and hit 64 of his 3's this year... But he's still a defensive liability who would get absolutely lost on PnR. Super slow footed too, would get torn up in transition defense.
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Smart = gone! buh bye!
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I'm thinking ~
We let Baynes walk ~ ):
We sign and trade Smart for $14,000 million and package him with the #27 for the Center in Orlando and a future 1st round pick.
Kyrie Rozier
Hayward Brown
Tatum Semi
AL Yabba daba do
N. V Thesis
I don't get why people like Nikola so much. I get that he's a great offensive center that can rebound, and has averaged 3.4 APG, and hit 64 of his 3's this year... But he's still a defensive liability who would get absolutely lost on PnR. Super slow footed too, would get torn up in transition defense.
It’s moot because Smart isn’t going to get signed to the $24 million a year contract it would take to get Vucevic in this deal. We save the Vucevic debates for next year when he’s a free agent.
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Smart = gone! buh bye!
We need Baynes, or someone to replace him, as we'll likely have to deal with Embiid again. Baynes for 120% of this year's salary or less is worth it for his D on Embiid alone, plus other bigs who don't have Giannis-like arms. He also fit nicely in a constantly changing starting lineup.
We could still use Smart. He's proven to be valuable, he's still quite young, and I thought his offense took a bit of a step up toward the end of the season. I wouldn't pay him $13+ million, but I'd pay him up to a number where we'd have no problem trading him later and getting something of value.
Morris is the odd man out to me. We have Hayward, Tatum and Brown as wings, plus Smart plays wing in some lineups and Al takes up most of the minutes at big that Morris might get. In a year, Morris is gone anyway after his bargain $5m per year deal ends.
I'd try to flip Morris for two 2nds, since teams like to protect them, but I might take one.
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Seems we have more room than I thought (around 13 mil). I actually think the most likely scenario is smart signing the qualifying offer (or whatever it's called). If that happens, seems like we would/might have room for all three guys.
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Seems we have more room than I thought (around 13 mil). I actually think the most likely scenario is smart signing the qualifying offer (or whatever it's called). If that happens, seems like we would/might have room for all three guys.
If that happens, doesn't he then become an UFA after that, and we relinquish his Bird rights?
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Seems we have more room than I thought (around 13 mil). I actually think the most likely scenario is smart signing the qualifying offer (or whatever it's called). If that happens, seems like we would/might have room for all three guys.
If that happens, doesn't he then become an UFA after that, and we relinquish his Bird rights?
UFA but we have Bird rights.
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Seems we have more room than I thought (around 13 mil). I actually think the most likely scenario is smart signing the qualifying offer (or whatever it's called). If that happens, seems like we would/might have room for all three guys.
If that happens, doesn't he then become an UFA after that, and we relinquish his Bird rights?
EDIT: UFA but still, if we think it’s headed in that direction, with the apparent value at guard at #27, we should consider drafting a guy who might be able to play 10-15 mpg the year after next, if we keep #27.
I think the excellent draft workout thread reflects the value at guard, based on who has worked out. Lots of guards and some wings as well, with a select few bigs.
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Seems we have more room than I thought (around 13 mil). I actually think the most likely scenario is smart signing the qualifying offer (or whatever it's called). If that happens, seems like we would/might have room for all three guys.
While it is possible Smart takes the QO, it would be somewhat surprising if Baynes were still on the market by the time he made that decision.
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Seems we have more room than I thought (around 13 mil). I actually think the most likely scenario is smart signing the qualifying offer (or whatever it's called). If that happens, seems like we would/might have room for all three guys.
While it is possible Smart takes the QO, it would be somewhat surprising if Baynes were still on the market by the time he made that decision.
Exactly Salty - the timing of all of this July/August activity is going to be tricky. Let's say C's sign J Bird early on and Barnes decides fairly early that he will come back for a reasonable amount. If C's know the financial parameters of moving Morris (but deal is on hold), then they also know the max amount they can afford to pay Smart (assuming that they don't what to pay tax). The challenge/concern is that other teams will be able to calculate this theoretical amount as well, and some may offer just a little more, beyond what C's can offer.
Although probably no fireworks this summer, it will be an intriguing one none the less. :)
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Seems we have more room than I thought (around 13 mil). I actually think the most likely scenario is smart signing the qualifying offer (or whatever it's called). If that happens, seems like we would/might have room for all three guys.
While it is possible Smart takes the QO, it would be somewhat surprising if Baynes were still on the market by the time he made that decision.
Not Sure why Smart would preclude them from signing Baynes. Cs are limited to what they can offer Baynes. They can basiclly offer him around 5.3 mil or the MLE basically. Realistically, how much do you think teams are going to spend on someone who plays like 20 mins a gane and is 32? Unless some dumb team like Philly strikes out on all its FA targets and decides to give a contract like they did to Reddick.
Also, you have to figure there has to be some sort of general malaise until LeBron makes a decision.
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M Smart
A Baynes
M Morris
unless Smart agrees to play for the qualifying offer of $6,053,719 (unlikely).
This assumes that T Rozier will at least start the year in Boston, and that G Monroe is gone.
Of the three, I would like to see Mook get dealt for a future draft pick with little or no money coming back.
The resolution of Smart's RFA status is going to really have a domino effect on the composition of the 2nd unit.
Not necessarily.
Next season Rozier has a cap hold of $3,050,389.
#13 (Clippers) has a cap hold of $3,020,280.
If we trade Rozier straight up for #13 (or lower) we 'll be saving money.
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Easily I want Marcus Morris gone.
Loved his high-scoring offense, but sometimes makes a lot of boneheaded plays. Still won't forget how he left Jodie Meeks wide open for that corner 3 to send a game to OT, and he went to go defend a meaningless dunk instead.
Also, if LeBron goes west no need for the "LeBron stopper" anymore.
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Morris. His talent level is pretty high for the price, but he's just not a great fit with Hayward + Tatum + Brown + Smart on the roster. His defense on LeBron was commendable at times but it's also not clear how much it would benefit us with all of those guys available (+ Semi?).
In addition, he won't be happy with a smaller role, is the only real ball-stopper on our roster, and is a bit of a head case.
In a vacuum he's still a pretty good player for $5M/year coming off the bench, but I think the Cs would have no problem moving on.
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Easily I want Marcus Morris gone.
Loved his high-scoring offense, but sometimes makes a lot of boneheaded plays. Still won't forget how he left Jodie Meeks wide open for that corner 3 to send a game to OT, and he went to go defend a meaningless dunk instead.
Also, if LeBron goes west no need for the "LeBron stopper" anymore.
Dang, I’d forgotten about that horrible defensive play
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M Smart
A Baynes
M Morris
unless Smart agrees to play for the qualifying offer of $6,053,719 (unlikely).
This assumes that T Rozier will at least start the year in Boston, and that G Monroe is gone.
Of the three, I would like to see Mook get dealt for a future draft pick with little or no money coming back.
The resolution of Smart's RFA status is going to really have a domino effect on the composition of the 2nd unit.
If anything I think Smart coming back on the QO is the most likely scenario there is for his summer. There just isn't a lot of money floating around out there and there are a number of other players who are bigger headline guys/do more for a bad team. I think Smart's going to have a very hard time getting an offer sheet for more than the non-tax mid-level, which isn't what he's looking for at all, and Ainge isn't going to start him at $14-15 million just because. I wouldn't be surprised to see all three of those guys back on the roster next season all making basically between $5-6 million per.
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I already have Morris being moved in my mind. Question is do you get a high 2nd or low first?
I also expect Yab and Nader to be moved. They are too limited and their ceilings are 10th men off the bench. I'd try to get future 2nd rounders for them.
That would create some nice wiggle room with the cap.