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Around the League => Transaction Ideas and Rumors => Topic started by: CFAN38 on May 31, 2018, 10:12:13 AM

Title: The Pros and Cons of cashing in future Draft pick for a high pick this year
Post by: CFAN38 on May 31, 2018, 10:12:13 AM
Let me just first say that no matter how bad DA wants to move up to land a high pick in this draft it still may not happen. Teams get locked in on prospects and feel they need to feed their fan bases in the moment with youth and potential. There is no better example then the year DA almost traded the farm for Justice Winslow but no one would take it.

This post is based of the rumors that the Cs are high on Bamba and Doncic and have explored moving up in the draft.

I am assuming that at the very minimum a trade up into the 4-7 range  would cost the Cs Rozier, #27, 19 Sac pick, and an additional 2019 1st. With that additional pick likely being the Grizz pick.   


Pros,

The Cs have their established core. Irving, Tatum, Brown, Hayward and Horford as the starts for the foreseeable future. If all works out they will retain Smart and Baynes cementing in their top 7 next season and will fill out the rotation with a vet min, Semi and Theis. Keeping this group together will leave little room to add multiple rookies in 2019

It seems very unlikely that Anthony Davis, the only player I would want to see the Cs make a push for trading is going to hit the open market. His ability to sign a super max and their recent playoff performance has me skeptical we will leave in the next few years. Aside from Davis or maybe KAT its hard to find a trade target who is a big enough roster upgrade to warrant using the cash of picks.

The 2018 draft is deep in big man depth while 2019 appears shallow. If the Cs want to land a high ceiling player to play behind/along side and learn from Horford this might be the Cs best chance. Adding and developing a young big now would start the Cs prep for the post Horford prime years without having to shake up the roster. As a team who is not going to see cap space for a long long time this maybe critical.

This class includes 5 potential all-star level centers in Ayton, Jackson, Bagely, Bamba, and Carter. All 5 could conceivably develop into modern offensive centers. Carter and Ayton are the most refined, Jackson and Bagley showed some perimeter skills in college, and Bamba is remuored to be a better perimeter shooter then he showed in college. On D Jackson, and Bamba could be elite and Carter really good. Ayton and Bagely have the tools to be good but will require work.

Adding an elite center prospect now would allow the Cs to let Baynes go if his contract demands are to high. Then sign a cheaper stop gap big to a one year deal or trust Theis and the Rookie to fill Baynes role. 

Cons,

The Cs tried to go down this road before and rumor has it that trading away a bunch of picks for 1 pick almost cost the Cs the picks that became Tatum and Brown.

The Sac pick could be a top 5 pick next year and at that point a player like Reddish, Zion, Bol or someone else could be a better prospect then the player the Cs trade up for this year.

As good as the 5 bigs I listed are or can be all 5 have blemishes as prospects. Ayton lacks desire and awareness on D, Bagely is one hand dominate, lacks ideal length, and has questionable awareness on D, Bamba needs to get stronger and prove he has an offensive game, Jackson is still raw in a lot of facets of the game and will need time, and Carter as the most well polished and NBA ready lacks the ceiling of the other 4.   

Giving up all those picks can be scaring the the quick changing nature of the NBA. For all we know Giannis, Davis, KAT or another "star" might get upset early next season and demand a trade at the deadline. The Cs are right now prime to jump on any such occurrence.



Conclusion   

With all that being said I say go for it. Ainge has constructed an amazing roster and the potential to add a high end big man is to good to pass on. The question is who makes the trade.

Memphis #4 has been mentioned but they have no need for Rozier and including Brown is a horrible idea

Atlanta #3
seems too high to get to but maybe they look to create a 3 way where they trade down with another team. Something like Bulls #7, Portis and a future pick from the  for #3 (allowing bulls to get Porter). Then they trade away Schroeder for ? (maybe to Pacers for #23 and something else) and make a #7 for Rozier and Sac pick (as long as a center is available)

Magic #6
this makes the most sense Rozier, #27 and the Sac pick is a nice haul for the #6. The magic are likely going to have to clean out their roster and go into a longer rebuild/reload. They have Issac as a potential future piece and Gordon as a RFA. Bringing in Rozier and retaining Gordon while looking to move Vuc and Fournier for youth/pics could be a good start. They would then likely be right back into the lottery next year with their pick and the Kings. At that point they could figure out their Issac and Gordon fit and hopefully add two starters to their team.
Title: Re: The Pros and Cons of cashing in future Draft pick for a high pick this year
Post by: Moranis on May 31, 2018, 10:16:19 AM
I think you are seriously overestimating the value of the Sacramento pick and Rozier.  There is no way those assets, plus some super late 1st rounders, are enough to move into the top 7 of the draft. 
Title: Re: The Pros and Cons of cashing in future Draft pick for a high pick this year
Post by: KungPoweChicken on May 31, 2018, 10:19:31 AM
I think you are seriously overestimating the value of the Sacramento pick and Rozier.  There is no way those assets, plus some super late 1st rounders, are enough to move into the top 7 of the draft.



Agreed.
Title: Re: The Pros and Cons of cashing in future Draft pick for a high pick this year
Post by: footey on May 31, 2018, 10:20:31 AM
I agree with Moranis.

You lay out a great foundation of pros and cons, so TP for that.
Title: Re: The Pros and Cons of cashing in future Draft pick for a high pick this year
Post by: Quetzalcoatl on May 31, 2018, 10:26:32 AM
The Sac and Memphis picks are super valuable, I don't think I'd trade them but maybe would for the 4th pick in the moment.  We're going to have cap issues and those picks are going to be insanely helpful and both will likely be in the lottery.
Title: Re: The Pros and Cons of cashing in future Draft pick for a high pick this year
Post by: tstorey_97 on May 31, 2018, 10:30:01 AM
Good post cfan38.

Ainge behavior suggests a move will be on the table til draft night...it's how he operates. Brown is the only asset that gets Ainge into the top 6 and why should he break up one of the best rosters in the NBA for an unproven 19 year old big?
Title: Re: The Pros and Cons of cashing in future Draft pick for a high pick this year
Post by: wdleehi on May 31, 2018, 10:52:34 AM
I think you are seriously overestimating the value of the Sacramento pick and Rozier.  There is no way those assets, plus some super late 1st rounders, are enough to move into the top 7 of the draft.


I disagree with that.   I think it very well could put the Celtics into the 4-6 range.   
Title: Re: The Pros and Cons of cashing in future Draft pick for a high pick this year
Post by: td450 on May 31, 2018, 10:56:44 AM
These types of exchanges are extremely situational and only a few teams are involved, so almost any value proposition could be seen in a wide variety of ways.

Some relevant trades:
2013 - Jazz get #9
Timberwolves get #14 and #21

2016 - Suns get #8
Sacramento gets Bogdanovic, #13, #28 and a 2nd rounder

The failure to make a deal for Justise Winslow

You just never know.

The gap between perceptions on #4 and picks #8 through 10 is huge. I think the bargain here is Wendell Carter, primarily because he may be had at #8-10, which should be much easier to get.

I would be surprised if Terry Rozier, who as seen as a quality two way player that could start for many of these teams, the Sac pick, and some other lesser resources wouldn't be a good idea for New York or Chicago.

I even think it makes some legitimate sense for the Magic. Getting a young starter now and a real shot at a top wing next year is a pretty good haul. Their best assets are Gordon, Vucevic and Isaac and their best point guard is DJ Augustine. They don't need a big man who needs a few years. If Porter and Doncic are gone they might bite.


Title: Re: The Pros and Cons of cashing in future Draft pick for a high pick this year
Post by: green_bballers13 on May 31, 2018, 10:57:50 AM
I think you are seriously overestimating the value of the Sacramento pick and Rozier.  There is no way those assets, plus some super late 1st rounders, are enough to move into the top 7 of the draft.


I disagree with that.   I think it very well could put the Celtics into the 4-6 range.

It's not what Celtics fans think of Rozier- it depends on what other GMs think. While Rozier had a good year, I think it's hard to pencil him in as an all star (at the deepest position in the game). I'm not trading a top 10 pick for a guy that I think lacks all star potential.
Title: Re: The Pros and Cons of cashing in future Draft pick for a high pick this year
Post by: chilidawg on May 31, 2018, 10:59:53 AM
I think you are seriously overestimating the value of the Sacramento pick and Rozier.  There is no way those assets, plus some super late 1st rounders, are enough to move into the top 7 of the draft.


I disagree with that.   I think it very well could put the Celtics into the 4-6 range.

I'd agree with you.  At very least I wouldn't give up more than that to move up.  Bottom line is that none of us know what it will or won't take to move up, so state your opinions and realize that they are only your opinion.
Title: Re: The Pros and Cons of cashing in future Draft pick for a high pick this year
Post by: Moranis on May 31, 2018, 11:02:36 AM
I think you are seriously overestimating the value of the Sacramento pick and Rozier.  There is no way those assets, plus some super late 1st rounders, are enough to move into the top 7 of the draft.


I disagree with that.   I think it very well could put the Celtics into the 4-6 range.
The Sacramento pick is unlikely to be a top 5 pick and if it lands #1 it turns into Philly's pick (likely in mid to upper 20's).  Rozier is fine, but he is old, has just 1 year left, and there are real concerns that he could be a legit starting PG.  That package isn't landing a top 7 pick.  It just isn't. 
Title: Re: The Pros and Cons of cashing in future Draft pick for a high pick this year
Post by: Fafnir on May 31, 2018, 11:10:08 AM
Twice we've seen teams move to 10 and 11 for two lower picks in that same draft.

Each draft is different but it all depends on the team's draft board. A lot of times teams in the mid lottery only like 4 or 5 guys in a draft and just want to move out if they don't get one of those.

I'm skeptical it happens, but mostly because 4 first round picks didn't get it done for Justice Winslow because people really liked that draft class. I think teams are busy talking themselves into this draft class.
Title: Re: The Pros and Cons of cashing in future Draft pick for a high pick this year
Post by: hwangjini_1 on May 31, 2018, 11:10:56 AM
I think you are seriously overestimating the value of the Sacramento pick and Rozier.  There is no way those assets, plus some super late 1st rounders, are enough to move into the top 7 of the draft.


I disagree with that.   I think it very well could put the Celtics into the 4-6 range.

It's not what Celtics fans think of Rozier- it depends on what other GMs think. While Rozier had a good year, I think it's hard to pencil him in as an all star (at the deepest position in the game). I'm not trading a top 10 pick for a guy that I think lacks all star potential.
that's right, after all, it might even be a boat!!!!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GKZJdaiJF84
Title: Re: The Pros and Cons of cashing in future Draft pick for a high pick this year
Post by: DefenseWinsChamps on May 31, 2018, 11:38:37 AM
I keep hearing different "weaknesses" for Bagley, but it seems more and more like nitpicking.

He's one hand dominate? That may be true, but so are most other big men. We just notice it more with lefties.

He lacks ideal length? It's not like he is undersized. He's just not oversized. His length is the same as Kevin Love and Al Horford, who both play significant minutes at center.

He has questionable defensive awareness? Kind of, but I think he has better awareness than Ayton. He is also highly agile and has the ability to defend on the perimeter, which is a must for NBA bigs in the playoffs.

His shooting isn't reliable? He shot 40% from 3. His free throws were in the low 60s (remind you of Brown?). His form is on balance with a solid release -- and it is highly consistent.

The only guys I'd trade up for in this draft are Bagley and Doncic. Even then, I'm not include are starting 5 in the discussions (Horford, Hayward, Brown, Tatum, Irving).
Title: Re: The Pros and Cons of cashing in future Draft pick for a high pick this year
Post by: wdleehi on May 31, 2018, 11:40:17 AM
I think you are seriously overestimating the value of the Sacramento pick and Rozier.  There is no way those assets, plus some super late 1st rounders, are enough to move into the top 7 of the draft.


I disagree with that.   I think it very well could put the Celtics into the 4-6 range.

It's not what Celtics fans think of Rozier- it depends on what other GMs think. While Rozier had a good year, I think it's hard to pencil him in as an all star (at the deepest position in the game). I'm not trading a top 10 pick for a guy that I think lacks all star potential.


Rozier and a likely top lotto pick from the Kings (plus possible another late draft pick).

Not just Rozier. 

For a pick between 4 and 6.   I could see that happening. 
Title: Re: The Pros and Cons of cashing in future Draft pick for a high pick this year
Post by: wdleehi on May 31, 2018, 11:41:24 AM
I think you are seriously overestimating the value of the Sacramento pick and Rozier.  There is no way those assets, plus some super late 1st rounders, are enough to move into the top 7 of the draft.


I disagree with that.   I think it very well could put the Celtics into the 4-6 range.
The Sacramento pick is unlikely to be a top 5 pick and if it lands #1 it turns into Philly's pick (likely in mid to upper 20's).  Rozier is fine, but he is old, has just 1 year left, and there are real concerns that he could be a legit starting PG.  That package isn't landing a top 7 pick.  It just isn't.


Why?   What are they doing that will allow them to make such a huge jump versus other teams in the same range?
Title: Re: The Pros and Cons of cashing in future Draft pick for a high pick this year
Post by: Fafnir on May 31, 2018, 11:46:21 AM
Why?   What are they doing that will allow them to make such a huge jump versus other teams in the same range?
Not only that but the new lottery odds mean that if they're the 7th pick again they have much better chance of jumping into the top 4 (which is the new number of drawn picks) than they did this year of jumping into the top 3.
Title: Re: The Pros and Cons of cashing in future Draft pick for a high pick this year
Post by: Moranis on May 31, 2018, 11:54:31 AM
I think you are seriously overestimating the value of the Sacramento pick and Rozier.  There is no way those assets, plus some super late 1st rounders, are enough to move into the top 7 of the draft.


I disagree with that.   I think it very well could put the Celtics into the 4-6 range.
The Sacramento pick is unlikely to be a top 5 pick and if it lands #1 it turns into Philly's pick (likely in mid to upper 20's).  Rozier is fine, but he is old, has just 1 year left, and there are real concerns that he could be a legit starting PG.  That package isn't landing a top 7 pick.  It just isn't.


Why?   What are they doing that will allow them to make such a huge jump versus other teams in the same range?
They were the 7th pick this year and just ahead of BKN and NY.  I'll give you Memphis being worse then them is a stretch, but I could certainly see any of the other teams being worse then them again and wouldn't be overly surprised if they move ahead of the Nets or Knicks.  Then you have great unknowns, like the Cavs.  If James leaves, I imagine they would sell off as much as possible and likely won't be very good.  Are the Hornets going to decide to throw in the towel and tank.  What if the Lakers don't land anyone this summer, they could end up worse than the Kings, especially since the Kings are adding the 2nd pick in the draft this year.

If I was projecting where the pick falls in 5 position ranges, then 6-10 is by far the most likely landing spot for the Kings pick at this point.  And even if the pick wins the 1st pick, then it stays in Philly and becomes Philly's pick which is almost certainly going to be in the mid to late 20's.  For those reasons, the Kings picks value just isn't that great, especially when you consider this up coming draft is presumed to be much stronger and deeper then next summer.
Title: Re: The Pros and Cons of cashing in future Draft pick for a high pick this year
Post by: kgwannabe on May 31, 2018, 11:56:58 AM
Been saying the same thing in other threads for two weeks. Ideally, Bamba would be the target, but Carter Jr. might suffice. Now is the time to lock in a core. The biggest reason is that as an asset, Rozier will depreciate, as will the Clippers pick. if we wait we likely lose these as valuable assets. It's not an overpay to give up assets that will have less value in a year. Unless Kyrie get hurt (and if he does we're  in some trouble) Rozier is a one year luxury and we don't need 4 picks next year. Trade now, see if you can get a big and maybe acquire a future second rounder and hope for the best.
Title: Re: The Pros and Cons of cashing in future Draft pick for a high pick this year
Post by: slamtheking on May 31, 2018, 12:04:38 PM
I think you are seriously overestimating the value of the Sacramento pick and Rozier.  There is no way those assets, plus some super late 1st rounders, are enough to move into the top 7 of the draft.


I disagree with that.   I think it very well could put the Celtics into the 4-6 range.
The Sacramento pick is unlikely to be a top 5 pick and if it lands #1 it turns into Philly's pick (likely in mid to upper 20's).  Rozier is fine, but he is old, has just 1 year left, and there are real concerns that he could be a legit starting PG.  That package isn't landing a top 7 pick.  It just isn't.


Why?   What are they doing that will allow them to make such a huge jump versus other teams in the same range?
exactly.

Sac figures to be in the worst 5 records next year. 
- they're still in the West where everyone else figures to get better via their own high draft pick (i.e. Suns, Dallas) or players returning from injury (Memphis, ) or free agent signings (Lakers, Clippers). 
- The bottom teams in the East also figure to improve in those regards so more likely Sac is a bottom feeder again.   Their own high draft pick (i.e.  Atlanta, Orlando, ) or players returning from injury (, Knicks) or free agent signings (Chicago, Brooklyn). 
- Their youth has some moderate promise but no one looks like an all-star stud.  Fox, Hield, Mason, Skal, WCS.  these guys are looking like supporting players so far.  they have the chance to draft either Ayton or Doncic as the prospects with the highest expectations to become a foundation player but neither is likely to play at that level next year.
Title: Re: The Pros and Cons of cashing in future Draft pick for a high pick this year
Post by: Boise To Boston on May 31, 2018, 12:08:09 PM
We know that Danny is willing to unload the coffers in order to get a player he really wants (thank goodness that didn't work out last time).  And while the teams that Danny would want to trade with to move up and get Bamba or Jackson likely don't need Rozier, I think it's totally doable to bring in a third team.  Any of these teams COULD use someone like Rozier and be willing to give a pick for him that Danny could use to put a package together to move up to the 4-8 range:

Clippers at 12/13
Atlanta at 19
Minnesota at 20
Utah at 21

Take that pick and package it with Boston's 27 this year and either next year's Memphis/Sacramento pick and I think you have line of sight to the 4th or 5th pick and either Jackson or Bamba, or possibly the 8th/9th pick from Cleveland or New York to get Wendell Carter.

I think you are seriously overestimating the value of the Sacramento pick and Rozier.  There is no way those assets, plus some super late 1st rounders, are enough to move into the top 7 of the draft.


I disagree with that.   I think it very well could put the Celtics into the 4-6 range.

It's not what Celtics fans think of Rozier- it depends on what other GMs think. While Rozier had a good year, I think it's hard to pencil him in as an all star (at the deepest position in the game). I'm not trading a top 10 pick for a guy that I think lacks all star potential.


Rozier and a likely top lotto pick from the Kings (plus possible another late draft pick).

Not just Rozier. 

For a pick between 4 and 6.   I could see that happening.
Title: Re: The Pros and Cons of cashing in future Draft pick for a high pick this year
Post by: nebist on May 31, 2018, 12:59:38 PM
It just depends on how much Danny likes the big men in this draft as players. 1-2 of them will likely fall in the 6-12 range. We're not trading Brown for a rookie. Not gonna happen, and so I think that makes it prohibitive for us to get into top 5. But once you get in that 6-12 range, the Rozier, SAC or MEM pick, 27 package becomes at least plausible depending on how specific teams in that range value Rozier.

So draft could shake out like:
1- Suns - Ayton
2- Kings - Doncic
3- Hawks - Bagley
4- Grizz - MPJ
5- Mavs - JJJ
6- Magic - Trae Young
7- Bulls - Bamba
8- Cavs - Mikal Bridges
9- Knicks - Collin Sexton
10- Sixers - Miles Bridges
11- Hornets - Wendell Carter Jr.

There's a fairly plausible scenario where you've got 2 bigs in that 6-11 range. If Bamba goes higher, then it's probable that JJJ or Bagley is still around in the 6-7 range. The Magic and Knicks in particular would seem to be great landing spots for Rozier.

Personally, I would pull the trigger on Rozier, SAC, 27 for Bagley or JJJ. And I would consider it for Bamba and Carter, but I defer to Ainge's evaluations of whether Bamba is bust-proof enough and Carter's ceiling is high enough.
Title: Re: The Pros and Cons of cashing in future Draft pick for a high pick this year
Post by: JHTruth on May 31, 2018, 01:16:16 PM
I think you are seriously overestimating the value of the Sacramento pick and Rozier.  There is no way those assets, plus some super late 1st rounders, are enough to move into the top 7 of the draft.

To support this I offer the fact that Danny offered SIX DRAFT PICKS, including 4 first rounders to move up from 16 to 9 in the Rozier draft and it wasn't enough. Imagine the cost to get into the top 10 from 27.
Title: Re: The Pros and Cons of cashing in future Draft pick for a high pick this year
Post by: td450 on May 31, 2018, 01:26:29 PM
I think you are seriously overestimating the value of the Sacramento pick and Rozier.  There is no way those assets, plus some super late 1st rounders, are enough to move into the top 7 of the draft.

To support this I offer the fact that Danny offered SIX DRAFT PICKS, including 4 first rounders to move up from 16 to 9 in the Rozier draft and it wasn't enough. Imagine the cost to get into the top 10 from 27.
Again, each situation is different.

That was one extreme.

The Suns traded for #8 in 2016 to grab what looked at the time like a talented big man too. It took Bogdanovic, #13, #28 and a 2nd rounder.

Rozier, the Sac pick and the #27 pick is a significantly better offer than that.

Title: Re: The Pros and Cons of cashing in future Draft pick for a high pick this year
Post by: mef730 on May 31, 2018, 01:26:35 PM
I think you are seriously overestimating the value of the Sacramento pick and Rozier.  There is no way those assets, plus some super late 1st rounders, are enough to move into the top 7 of the draft.

To support this I offer the fact that Danny offered SIX DRAFT PICKS, including 4 first rounders to move up from 16 to 9 in the Rozier draft and it wasn't enough. Imagine the cost to get into the top 10 from 27.

We don't know what picks were included, assuming there were four firsts in the mix (and it sounds about right), but the rumor is that a BKN pick was included. I remain convinced that a Brooklyn pick was never in the mix, but Danny's letting that rumor hang around to give the impression that even he can be taken advantage of occasionally.

Mike
Title: Re: The Pros and Cons of cashing in future Draft pick for a high pick this year
Post by: hwangjini_1 on May 31, 2018, 01:31:02 PM
I think you are seriously overestimating the value of the Sacramento pick and Rozier.  There is no way those assets, plus some super late 1st rounders, are enough to move into the top 7 of the draft.

To support this I offer the fact that Danny offered SIX DRAFT PICKS, including 4 first rounders to move up from 16 to 9 in the Rozier draft and it wasn't enough. Imagine the cost to get into the top 10 from 27.
i am not sure this is a good comparison point. one of the draft picks currently under discussion has the potential for being top 7 next year. sacramento will suck next year too. the picks offered by ainge before were not very high in the draft. the 16th may have been the best, but correct me if i am wrong on this.

plus, rozier is a proven nba player, not a middling to poor first round pick.

i see significant differences between the two proposed offers. now, whether the latest package is enough to enter into the top 7 this year, we won't know until the draft.
Title: Re: The Pros and Cons of cashing in future Draft pick for a high pick this year
Post by: byennie on May 31, 2018, 01:54:13 PM
I think you are seriously overestimating the value of the Sacramento pick and Rozier.  There is no way those assets, plus some super late 1st rounders, are enough to move into the top 7 of the draft.


I disagree with that.   I think it very well could put the Celtics into the 4-6 range.
The Sacramento pick is unlikely to be a top 5 pick and if it lands #1 it turns into Philly's pick (likely in mid to upper 20's).  Rozier is fine, but he is old, has just 1 year left, and there are real concerns that he could be a legit starting PG.  That package isn't landing a top 7 pick.  It just isn't.

Unlikely? SAC is almost certainly one of the 5 worst teams in the league. So the odds are something like:

10% = Philly pick (it hit #1)
80% = 2-5
10% = 6-10

Getting a future pick which is 80% going to be higher is not washed away by saying this year is a deep draft. It's still the #6 pick and there certainly are not 6 sure things to choose from.

Throw in something like Rozier or additional picks and it could easily be a win for the other side. You really think Orlando is clearly better off rolling the dice on Bamba than getting a starting PG *plus* a comparable pick *plus* additional 1st rounder(s) as assets?
Title: Re: The Pros and Cons of cashing in future Draft pick for a high pick this year
Post by: JHTruth on May 31, 2018, 02:04:20 PM
I think you are seriously overestimating the value of the Sacramento pick and Rozier.  There is no way those assets, plus some super late 1st rounders, are enough to move into the top 7 of the draft.


I disagree with that.   I think it very well could put the Celtics into the 4-6 range.
The Sacramento pick is unlikely to be a top 5 pick and if it lands #1 it turns into Philly's pick (likely in mid to upper 20's).  Rozier is fine, but he is old, has just 1 year left, and there are real concerns that he could be a legit starting PG.  That package isn't landing a top 7 pick.  It just isn't.

Unlikely? SAC is almost certainly one of the 5 worst teams in the league. So the odds are something like:

10% = Philly pick (it hit #1)
80% = 2-5
10% = 6-10

Getting a future pick which is 80% going to be higher is not washed away by saying this year is a deep draft. It's still the #6 pick and there certainly are not 6 sure things to choose from.

Throw in something like Rozier or additional picks and it could easily be a win for the other side. You really think Orlando is clearly better off rolling the dice on Bamba than getting a starting PG *plus* a comparable pick *plus* additional 1st rounder(s) as assets?

Not a bad argument. But I think what happens in these drafts is GMs end up a lot like us, falling in love with a player's potential (esp one with the physical attributes of Bamba) and logic often goes out the window. For the record I don't think Bamba will last to 8, but you never know.

In support of your position, one could argue that the Kings actually won the Chriss trade as I live on Phoenix and Chriss is widely thought to be terrible..
Title: Re: The Pros and Cons of cashing in future Draft pick for a high pick this year
Post by: JHTruth on May 31, 2018, 02:15:14 PM
FWIW


Mark Murphy

Verified account
 
@Murf56
 53m53 minutes ago
More
League source on Celtics' reported interest in moving up to draft Mo Bamba: "Don't waste your time on that one."

7 replies 61 retweets 164 likes
Reply 7   Retweet 61   Like 164
Title: Re: The Pros and Cons of cashing in future Draft pick for a high pick this year
Post by: gift on May 31, 2018, 02:22:31 PM
FWIW


Mark Murphy

Verified account
 
@Murf56
 53m53 minutes ago
More
League source on Celtics' reported interest in moving up to draft Mo Bamba: "Don't waste your time on that one."

7 replies 61 retweets 164 likes
Reply 7   Retweet 61   Like 164

Does this source realize how much time we've already wasted on this?
Title: Re: The Pros and Cons of cashing in future Draft pick for a high pick this year
Post by: Moranis on May 31, 2018, 02:39:18 PM
I think you are seriously overestimating the value of the Sacramento pick and Rozier.  There is no way those assets, plus some super late 1st rounders, are enough to move into the top 7 of the draft.


I disagree with that.   I think it very well could put the Celtics into the 4-6 range.
The Sacramento pick is unlikely to be a top 5 pick and if it lands #1 it turns into Philly's pick (likely in mid to upper 20's).  Rozier is fine, but he is old, has just 1 year left, and there are real concerns that he could be a legit starting PG.  That package isn't landing a top 7 pick.  It just isn't.

Unlikely? SAC is almost certainly one of the 5 worst teams in the league. So the odds are something like:

10% = Philly pick (it hit #1)
80% = 2-5
10% = 6-10

Getting a future pick which is 80% going to be higher is not washed away by saying this year is a deep draft. It's still the #6 pick and there certainly are not 6 sure things to choose from.

Throw in something like Rozier or additional picks and it could easily be a win for the other side. You really think Orlando is clearly better off rolling the dice on Bamba than getting a starting PG *plus* a comparable pick *plus* additional 1st rounder(s) as assets?
I don't believe that Sacramento is certain to be a bottom 5 team.  They could be, but they were the 7th worst team this year, are adding the #2 pick, and have plenty of cap room.  They could easily pass the Nets and Knicks and may pass the Lakers if they end up punting in free agency.  It is far from a given that the Suns, Mavs, Hawks, Bulls, and Magic improve more then them and who knows how healthy the Grizzlies will actually be.  The Hornets seems like a team that could go into full bore tank mode and the Cavs might if James leaves.  This notion that the Kings are guaranteed to be a bottom 5 team is just hogwash.  They certainly might be, but the odds as they look right now would say they won't be. 
Title: Re: The Pros and Cons of cashing in future Draft pick for a high pick this year
Post by: liam on May 31, 2018, 02:59:57 PM
I think you are seriously overestimating the value of the Sacramento pick and Rozier.  There is no way those assets, plus some super late 1st rounders, are enough to move into the top 7 of the draft.


I disagree with that.   I think it very well could put the Celtics into the 4-6 range.
The Sacramento pick is unlikely to be a top 5 pick and if it lands #1 it turns into Philly's pick (likely in mid to upper 20's).  Rozier is fine, but he is old, has just 1 year left, and there are real concerns that he could be a legit starting PG.  That package isn't landing a top 7 pick.  It just isn't.

Unlikely? SAC is almost certainly one of the 5 worst teams in the league. So the odds are something like:

10% = Philly pick (it hit #1)
80% = 2-5
10% = 6-10

Getting a future pick which is 80% going to be higher is not washed away by saying this year is a deep draft. It's still the #6 pick and there certainly are not 6 sure things to choose from.

Throw in something like Rozier or additional picks and it could easily be a win for the other side. You really think Orlando is clearly better off rolling the dice on Bamba than getting a starting PG *plus* a comparable pick *plus* additional 1st rounder(s) as assets?
I don't believe that Sacramento is certain to be a bottom 5 team.  They could be, but they were the 7th worst team this year, are adding the #2 pick, and have plenty of cap room.  They could easily pass the Nets and Knicks and may pass the Lakers if they end up punting in free agency.  It is far from a given that the Suns, Mavs, Hawks, Bulls, and Magic improve more then them and who knows how healthy the Grizzlies will actually be.  The Hornets seems like a team that could go into full bore tank mode and the Cavs might if James leaves.  This notion that the Kings are guaranteed to be a bottom 5 team is just hogwash.  They certainly might be, but the odds as they look right now would say they won't be.

The Kings will stink but just how bad the stench will be is yet to be determined! I can't believe that they were the 7th worst team this year. The times I watched them play they looked terrible!
Title: Re: The Pros and Cons of cashing in future Draft pick for a high pick this year
Post by: CFAN38 on May 31, 2018, 03:13:13 PM
I think you are seriously overestimating the value of the Sacramento pick and Rozier.  There is no way those assets, plus some super late 1st rounders, are enough to move into the top 7 of the draft.

I was on the fence if I may be over valuing the pick and Rozier but members of NBA media seem to think that its not that outlandish so I ran with it for the sake of this post.

I have said in the past the best gauge for this trade was the George Hill from the Spurs to Pacers for the #12 pick.

I wrote a long post on this but to paraphrase.

George Hill at the time of the trade was a slightly less effective player then Rozier. Both where roughly the same age and had one year left on their contracts.

As for the 12th pick that was used on Leonard at the time of the draft Chad Ford had him as a 3rd tier player. His tiers where intel based and the 3rd tier was for players who teams felt had all star potential but where not all star locks like tier 2 players. ( that year the tier 2s where Irving and Derrick Williams, with no tier 1).

2011 draft tiers by Chad Ford


Tier 2
Kyrie Irving (draft range: 1 to 2)
Derrick Williams (1 to 3)


Tier 3
Enes Kanter (2 to 6)
Brandon Knight (3 to 7)
Kawhi Leonard (5 to 9)
Jonas Valanciunas (3 to 8)
Jan Vesely (3 to 10)
Kemba Walker (3 to 9)


My guess at player tiers this year would be the following. Not my tiers just a prediction of what GMS might be thinking based off of what I have read.

Tier 2
Doncic
Ayton
Bagely
Porter

Tier 3
Jackson
Bamba
Young
Carter

Based on this a Rozier for a pick trade should land the Cs a pick in the 9-12 range. Add the value of a future likely top 8 pick from the Kings and trading up to 4-8 seems more likely. 


   
Title: Re: The Pros and Cons of cashing in future Draft pick for a high pick this year
Post by: Boise To Boston on May 31, 2018, 04:33:30 PM
Great analysis.  Seems like the Clippers, who have 12 and 13 and need a young PG, would be an ideal trade partner here. 

Did Rozier ever have a big game against Doc?  That would seal the deal.

I think you are seriously overestimating the value of the Sacramento pick and Rozier.  There is no way those assets, plus some super late 1st rounders, are enough to move into the top 7 of the draft.

I was on the fence if I may be over valuing the pick and Rozier but members of NBA media seem to think that its not that outlandish so I ran with it for the sake of this post.

I have said in the past the best gauge for this trade was the George Hill from the Spurs to Pacers for the #12 pick.

I wrote a long post on this but to paraphrase.

George Hill at the time of the trade was a slightly less effective player then Rozier. Both where roughly the same age and had one year left on their contracts.

As for the 12th pick that was used on Leonard at the time of the draft Chad Ford had him as a 3rd tier player. His tiers where intel based and the 3rd tier was for players who teams felt had all star potential but where not all star locks like tier 2 players. ( that year the tier 2s where Irving and Derrick Williams, with no tier 1).

2011 draft tiers by Chad Ford


Tier 2
Kyrie Irving (draft range: 1 to 2)
Derrick Williams (1 to 3)


Tier 3
Enes Kanter (2 to 6)
Brandon Knight (3 to 7)
Kawhi Leonard (5 to 9)
Jonas Valanciunas (3 to 8)
Jan Vesely (3 to 10)
Kemba Walker (3 to 9)


My guess at player tiers this year would be the following. Not my tiers just a prediction of what GMS might be thinking based off of what I have read.

Tier 2
Doncic
Ayton
Bagely
Porter

Tier 3
Jackson
Bamba
Young
Carter

Based on this a Rozier for a pick trade should land the Cs a pick in the 9-12 range. Add the value of a future likely top 8 pick from the Kings and trading up to 4-8 seems more likely. 


 
Title: Re: The Pros and Cons of cashing in future Draft pick for a high pick this year
Post by: JHTruth on May 31, 2018, 04:39:36 PM
Great analysis.  Seems like the Clippers, who have 12 and 13 and need a young PG, would be an ideal trade partner here. 

Did Rozier ever have a big game against Doc?  That would seal the deal.

I think you are seriously overestimating the value of the Sacramento pick and Rozier.  There is no way those assets, plus some super late 1st rounders, are enough to move into the top 7 of the draft.

I was on the fence if I may be over valuing the pick and Rozier but members of NBA media seem to think that its not that outlandish so I ran with it for the sake of this post.

I have said in the past the best gauge for this trade was the George Hill from the Spurs to Pacers for the #12 pick.

I wrote a long post on this but to paraphrase.

George Hill at the time of the trade was a slightly less effective player then Rozier. Both where roughly the same age and had one year left on their contracts.

As for the 12th pick that was used on Leonard at the time of the draft Chad Ford had him as a 3rd tier player. His tiers where intel based and the 3rd tier was for players who teams felt had all star potential but where not all star locks like tier 2 players. ( that year the tier 2s where Irving and Derrick Williams, with no tier 1).

2011 draft tiers by Chad Ford


Tier 2
Kyrie Irving (draft range: 1 to 2)
Derrick Williams (1 to 3)


Tier 3
Enes Kanter (2 to 6)
Brandon Knight (3 to 7)
Kawhi Leonard (5 to 9)
Jonas Valanciunas (3 to 8)
Jan Vesely (3 to 10)
Kemba Walker (3 to 9)


My guess at player tiers this year would be the following. Not my tiers just a prediction of what GMS might be thinking based off of what I have read.

Tier 2
Doncic
Ayton
Bagely
Porter

Tier 3
Jackson
Bamba
Young
Carter

Based on this a Rozier for a pick trade should land the Cs a pick in the 9-12 range. Add the value of a future likely top 8 pick from the Kings and trading up to 4-8 seems more likely. 


 

Who at 12 or 13 is worth trading Rozier for?
Title: Re: The Pros and Cons of cashing in future Draft pick for a high pick this year
Post by: Moranis on May 31, 2018, 04:47:56 PM
I think you are seriously overestimating the value of the Sacramento pick and Rozier.  There is no way those assets, plus some super late 1st rounders, are enough to move into the top 7 of the draft.

I was on the fence if I may be over valuing the pick and Rozier but members of NBA media seem to think that its not that outlandish so I ran with it for the sake of this post.

I have said in the past the best gauge for this trade was the George Hill from the Spurs to Pacers for the #12 pick.

I wrote a long post on this but to paraphrase.

George Hill at the time of the trade was a slightly less effective player then Rozier. Both where roughly the same age and had one year left on their contracts.

As for the 12th pick that was used on Leonard at the time of the draft Chad Ford had him as a 3rd tier player. His tiers where intel based and the 3rd tier was for players who teams felt had all star potential but where not all star locks like tier 2 players. ( that year the tier 2s where Irving and Derrick Williams, with no tier 1).

2011 draft tiers by Chad Ford


Tier 2
Kyrie Irving (draft range: 1 to 2)
Derrick Williams (1 to 3)


Tier 3
Enes Kanter (2 to 6)
Brandon Knight (3 to 7)
Kawhi Leonard (5 to 9)
Jonas Valanciunas (3 to 8)
Jan Vesely (3 to 10)
Kemba Walker (3 to 9)


My guess at player tiers this year would be the following. Not my tiers just a prediction of what GMS might be thinking based off of what I have read.

Tier 2
Doncic
Ayton
Bagely
Porter

Tier 3
Jackson
Bamba
Young
Carter

Based on this a Rozier for a pick trade should land the Cs a pick in the 9-12 range. Add the value of a future likely top 8 pick from the Kings and trading up to 4-8 seems more likely. 


 
Leonard was the 15th pick not the 12th pick.

I've said multiple times and in multiple different threads on here, that Rozier for 16 would seemingly make sense for both teams if someone like Robert Williams was on the board.  In a vacuum Rozier might have a bit more value than 16, but I just don't see any teams earlier than that having such a need that they would trade their pick for Rozier (who remember is entering the last year of his rookie contract, and is pretty old for a player of his experience level).
Title: Re: The Pros and Cons of cashing in future Draft pick for a high pick this year
Post by: CFAN38 on May 31, 2018, 06:01:31 PM
I think you are seriously overestimating the value of the Sacramento pick and Rozier.  There is no way those assets, plus some super late 1st rounders, are enough to move into the top 7 of the draft.

I was on the fence if I may be over valuing the pick and Rozier but members of NBA media seem to think that its not that outlandish so I ran with it for the sake of this post.

I have said in the past the best gauge for this trade was the George Hill from the Spurs to Pacers for the #12 pick.

I wrote a long post on this but to paraphrase.

George Hill at the time of the trade was a slightly less effective player then Rozier. Both where roughly the same age and had one year left on their contracts.

As for the 12th pick that was used on Leonard at the time of the draft Chad Ford had him as a 3rd tier player. His tiers where intel based and the 3rd tier was for players who teams felt had all star potential but where not all star locks like tier 2 players. ( that year the tier 2s where Irving and Derrick Williams, with no tier 1).

2011 draft tiers by Chad Ford


Tier 2
Kyrie Irving (draft range: 1 to 2)
Derrick Williams (1 to 3)


Tier 3
Enes Kanter (2 to 6)
Brandon Knight (3 to 7)
Kawhi Leonard (5 to 9)
Jonas Valanciunas (3 to 8)
Jan Vesely (3 to 10)
Kemba Walker (3 to 9)


My guess at player tiers this year would be the following. Not my tiers just a prediction of what GMS might be thinking based off of what I have read.

Tier 2
Doncic
Ayton
Bagely
Porter

Tier 3
Jackson
Bamba
Young
Carter

Based on this a Rozier for a pick trade should land the Cs a pick in the 9-12 range. Add the value of a future likely top 8 pick from the Kings and trading up to 4-8 seems more likely. 


 
Leonard was the 15th pick not the 12th pick.

I've said multiple times and in multiple different threads on here, that Rozier for 16 would seemingly make sense for both teams if someone like Robert Williams was on the board.  In a vacuum Rozier might have a bit more value than 16, but I just don't see any teams earlier than that having such a need that they would trade their pick for Rozier (who remember is entering the last year of his rookie contract, and is pretty old for a player of his experience level).

Thatís embarrassing 100% right he was 15th I have talked so many times about trading Rozier for 12 that I had my facts wrong.

For me it is not about the pick Rozier is traded for the player who is available. If Carter slides and can be drafted with a pick that the Cs obtain from a Rozier trade in 100% for it. Not as high on Williams Iím concerned about his skill and b-ball IQ not translating into Celtics system 
Title: Re: The Pros and Cons of cashing in future Draft pick for a high pick this year
Post by: Sophomore on May 31, 2018, 06:13:53 PM
I think you are seriously overestimating the value of the Sacramento pick and Rozier.  There is no way those assets, plus some super late 1st rounders, are enough to move into the top 7 of the draft.


I disagree with that.   I think it very well could put the Celtics into the 4-6 range.
The Sacramento pick is unlikely to be a top 5 pick and if it lands #1 it turns into Philly's pick (likely in mid to upper 20's).  Rozier is fine, but he is old, has just 1 year left, and there are real concerns that he could be a legit starting PG.  That package isn't landing a top 7 pick.  It just isn't.

Unlikely? SAC is almost certainly one of the 5 worst teams in the league. So the odds are something like:

10% = Philly pick (it hit #1)
80% = 2-5
10% = 6-10

Getting a future pick which is 80% going to be higher is not washed away by saying this year is a deep draft. It's still the #6 pick and there certainly are not 6 sure things to choose from.

Throw in something like Rozier or additional picks and it could easily be a win for the other side. You really think Orlando is clearly better off rolling the dice on Bamba than getting a starting PG *plus* a comparable pick *plus* additional 1st rounder(s) as assets?
I don't believe that Sacramento is certain to be a bottom 5 team.  They could be, but they were the 7th worst team this year, are adding the #2 pick, and have plenty of cap room.  They could easily pass the Nets and Knicks and may pass the Lakers if they end up punting in free agency.  It is far from a given that the Suns, Mavs, Hawks, Bulls, and Magic improve more then them and who knows how healthy the Grizzlies will actually be.  The Hornets seems like a team that could go into full bore tank mode and the Cavs might if James leaves.  This notion that the Kings are guaranteed to be a bottom 5 team is just hogwash.  They certainly might be, but the odds as they look right now would say they won't be.

Yeah. I expect the Kings pick next year to be somewhere in the 10 to 14 range.   They were only seventh worst last year, and their young players have got some run now. Winning just a few more games gets them to 10th. They are also, unfortunately, going to get the first or second pick in the draft. Most likely that player won’t add anything - so I pencil them in 10th – but we saw what happened this year. Some rookies really added a lot to their teams. Luca D Could be worth a few wins.
Title: Re: The Pros and Cons of cashing in future Draft pick for a high pick this year
Post by: tazzmaniac on May 31, 2018, 06:32:43 PM
I think you are seriously overestimating the value of the Sacramento pick and Rozier.  There is no way those assets, plus some super late 1st rounders, are enough to move into the top 7 of the draft.


I disagree with that.   I think it very well could put the Celtics into the 4-6 range.
The Sacramento pick is unlikely to be a top 5 pick and if it lands #1 it turns into Philly's pick (likely in mid to upper 20's).  Rozier is fine, but he is old, has just 1 year left, and there are real concerns that he could be a legit starting PG.  That package isn't landing a top 7 pick.  It just isn't.

Unlikely? SAC is almost certainly one of the 5 worst teams in the league. So the odds are something like:

10% = Philly pick (it hit #1)
80% = 2-5
10% = 6-10

Getting a future pick which is 80% going to be higher is not washed away by saying this year is a deep draft. It's still the #6 pick and there certainly are not 6 sure things to choose from.

Throw in something like Rozier or additional picks and it could easily be a win for the other side. You really think Orlando is clearly better off rolling the dice on Bamba than getting a starting PG *plus* a comparable pick *plus* additional 1st rounder(s) as assets?
Those odds aren't accurate.  Even if the Kings finish with the 2nd worst record, there is a 20% chance of ending up with the 6th pick plus the 14% chance of ending up #1 and reverting to the Sixers pick.  If the Kings end up with the 5th worst record, there is only a 33.8% chance of ending up 2 through 5. 
Title: Re: The Pros and Cons of cashing in future Draft pick for a high pick this year
Post by: byennie on May 31, 2018, 07:12:11 PM
Unlikely? SAC is almost certainly one of the 5 worst teams in the league. So the odds are something like:

10% = Philly pick (it hit #1)
80% = 2-5
10% = 6-10

Getting a future pick which is 80% going to be higher is not washed away by saying this year is a deep draft. It's still the #6 pick and there certainly are not 6 sure things to choose from.

Throw in something like Rozier or additional picks and it could easily be a win for the other side. You really think Orlando is clearly better off rolling the dice on Bamba than getting a starting PG *plus* a comparable pick *plus* additional 1st rounder(s) as assets?
Those odds aren't accurate.  Even if the Kings finish with the 2nd worst record, there is a 20% chance of ending up with the 6th pick plus the 14% chance of ending up #1 and reverting to the Sixers pick.  If the Kings end up with the 5th worst record, there is only a 33.8% chance of ending up 2 through 5.

Yeah too fast with the napkin numbers on my part. Still, model it with them randomly finishing somewhere between 1st and 5th worst record. The average odds become:

Sixers pick: 13.0%
2nd pick: 12.6%
3rd pick: 12.1%
4th pick: 11.6%
5th pick: 20.0%
6th pick: 18.3%
7th pick: 10.1%
8th pick: 2.2%
9th pick: 1.2%

Obviously it's a gamble, but 85% chance of 2-7 is not worth way less than having #6 if you're getting something else valuable in return.

You could also maybe handcuff it to some other pick... if they end up with PHI they get MEM instead or something.
Title: Re: The Pros and Cons of cashing in future Draft pick for a high pick this year
Post by: Moranis on June 01, 2018, 01:19:41 PM
Unlikely? SAC is almost certainly one of the 5 worst teams in the league. So the odds are something like:

10% = Philly pick (it hit #1)
80% = 2-5
10% = 6-10

Getting a future pick which is 80% going to be higher is not washed away by saying this year is a deep draft. It's still the #6 pick and there certainly are not 6 sure things to choose from.

Throw in something like Rozier or additional picks and it could easily be a win for the other side. You really think Orlando is clearly better off rolling the dice on Bamba than getting a starting PG *plus* a comparable pick *plus* additional 1st rounder(s) as assets?
Those odds aren't accurate.  Even if the Kings finish with the 2nd worst record, there is a 20% chance of ending up with the 6th pick plus the 14% chance of ending up #1 and reverting to the Sixers pick.  If the Kings end up with the 5th worst record, there is only a 33.8% chance of ending up 2 through 5.

Yeah too fast with the napkin numbers on my part. Still, model it with them randomly finishing somewhere between 1st and 5th worst record. The average odds become:

Sixers pick: 13.0%
2nd pick: 12.6%
3rd pick: 12.1%
4th pick: 11.6%
5th pick: 20.0%
6th pick: 18.3%
7th pick: 10.1%
8th pick: 2.2%
9th pick: 1.2%

Obviously it's a gamble, but 85% chance of 2-7 is not worth way less than having #6 if you're getting something else valuable in return.

You could also maybe handcuff it to some other pick... if they end up with PHI they get MEM instead or something.
Assuming your percentages are not correct, those odds are based on the Kings being one of the worst teams in the league, and that just doesn't seem likely.  A lottery team, no question, but god awful, just doesn't seem all that likely at this point.
Title: Re: The Pros and Cons of cashing in future Draft pick for a high pick this year
Post by: SparzWizard on June 04, 2018, 09:13:33 PM
Been hearing speculations of Brown being traded to the Mavericks for #5 pick? Thoughts?
Title: Re: The Pros and Cons of cashing in future Draft pick for a high pick this year
Post by: A Future of Stevens on June 04, 2018, 09:27:14 PM
Been hearing speculations of Brown being traded to the Mavericks for #5 pick? Thoughts?

Hard pass.
Title: Re: The Pros and Cons of cashing in future Draft pick for a high pick this year
Post by: Sketch5 on June 04, 2018, 09:31:32 PM
Been hearing speculations of Brown being traded to the Mavericks for #5 pick? Thoughts?

I've heard that linked to the Bamba interest and that the MAvs are willing to move the pick. It's over pay on our end. If we were getting a solid player too, I'd think about it, but they don't have anything that works contract wise that we would want.
Title: Re: The Pros and Cons of cashing in future Draft pick for a high pick this year
Post by: hwangjini_1 on June 04, 2018, 09:35:09 PM
Been hearing speculations of Brown being traded to the Mavericks for #5 pick? Thoughts?
any source worth a rat's butt on this? if not, then hard to get involved much.
Title: Re: The Pros and Cons of cashing in future Draft pick for a high pick this year
Post by: eja117 on June 04, 2018, 09:55:12 PM
Another way to look at it is from the opposite point of view. Like if someone called us and said "I'd like to offer you a 19 year old for Rozier, Jaylen, pick 27, the Kings pick, and the Memphis pick" I'd respond with "Is Ben Simmons 19? Is Karl Anthony Townes 19? They're not right? Then this call is done."
Title: Re: The Pros and Cons of cashing in future Draft pick for a high pick this year
Post by: Beat LA on June 04, 2018, 09:56:24 PM
Been hearing speculations of Brown being traded to the Mavericks for #5 pick? Thoughts?
any source worth a rat's butt on this? if not, then hard to get involved much.

How much lootie for Ratatouille's booty? ;) ;D
Title: Re: The Pros and Cons of cashing in future Draft pick for a high pick this year
Post by: slamtheking on June 04, 2018, 10:45:17 PM
I don't believe that Sacramento is certain to be a bottom 5 team.  They could be, but they were the 7th worst team this year, are adding the #2 pick, and have plenty of cap room.  They could easily pass the Nets and Knicks and may pass the Lakers if they end up punting in free agency.  It is far from a given that the Suns, Mavs, Hawks, Bulls, and Magic improve more then them and who knows how healthy the Grizzlies will actually be.  The Hornets seems like a team that could go into full bore tank mode and the Cavs might if James leaves.  This notion that the Kings are guaranteed to be a bottom 5 team is just hogwash.  They certainly might be, but the odds as they look right now would say they won't be. 
that's even more hogwash.
-Knicks should get Porzingis back so that will improve them quite a bit even if he's working his way back into shape during the season.
-Brooklyn, Knicks, LA, Chicago and Dallas are far more likely to land better FAs than Sacramento.  In fact, pretty much almost any other market is more likely to land better FAs than Sacramento.
-Memphis should have both Conley and Gasol back which makes them a much better team.
-Phx has young players that are considered better than what Sac has on their roster.   Same for Chicago.
Orlando has some more youth that could also improve this year.

you can't cherry pick Sac's youth as the only ones who'll be better than they were this year.  All but Brooklyn are getting a top pick this year.  Whether Sac gets Ayton or Doncic, they'll probably be good rookies but they'll be just that, rookies.  They're not going to dramatically improve that team.

As far as bottom teams go, prior to the draft and free agency, I see Sac, Hawks, Orlando, Chicago and Phx as the likely bottom 5 of the league next year.  Lakers, Brooklyn, NY are likely the next 3 but figure there will be a gap in the standing between the bottom 4-5 and the next grouping of teams.
Title: Re: The Pros and Cons of cashing in future Draft pick for a high pick this year
Post by: gouki88 on June 04, 2018, 11:09:07 PM
I don't believe that Sacramento is certain to be a bottom 5 team.  They could be, but they were the 7th worst team this year, are adding the #2 pick, and have plenty of cap room.  They could easily pass the Nets and Knicks and may pass the Lakers if they end up punting in free agency.  It is far from a given that the Suns, Mavs, Hawks, Bulls, and Magic improve more then them and who knows how healthy the Grizzlies will actually be.  The Hornets seems like a team that could go into full bore tank mode and the Cavs might if James leaves.  This notion that the Kings are guaranteed to be a bottom 5 team is just hogwash.  They certainly might be, but the odds as they look right now would say they won't be. 
that's even more hogwash.
-Knicks should get Porzingis back so that will improve them quite a bit even if he's working his way back into shape during the season.
-Brooklyn, Knicks, LA, Chicago and Dallas are far more likely to land better FAs than Sacramento.  In fact, pretty much almost any other market is more likely to land better FAs than Sacramento.
-Memphis should have both Conley and Gasol back which makes them a much better team.
-Phx has young players that are considered better than what Sac has on their roster.   Same for Chicago.
Orlando has some more youth that could also improve this year.

you can't cherry pick Sac's youth as the only ones who'll be better than they were this year.  All but Brooklyn are getting a top pick this year.  Whether Sac gets Ayton or Doncic, they'll probably be good rookies but they'll be just that, rookies.  They're not going to dramatically improve that team.

As far as bottom teams go, prior to the draft and free agency, I see Sac, Hawks, Orlando, Chicago and Phx as the likely bottom 5 of the league next year.  Lakers, Brooklyn, NY are likely the next 3 but figure there will be a gap in the standing between the bottom 4-5 and the next grouping of teams.
Agree entirely with slam. Could see Phoenix leapfrog the Lakers though, regardless of who they draft. Booker/Jackson/Warren were a good trio last year, with Jackson making good strides at the end of the season.

Sacramento are also a crapheap of an organisation
Title: Re: The Pros and Cons of cashing in future Draft pick for a high pick this year
Post by: rondofan1255 on June 07, 2018, 03:55:41 PM
I think you are seriously overestimating the value of the Sacramento pick and Rozier.  There is no way those assets, plus some super late 1st rounders, are enough to move into the top 7 of the draft.

To support this I offer the fact that Danny offered SIX DRAFT PICKS, including 4 first rounders to move up from 16 to 9 in the Rozier draft and it wasn't enough. Imagine the cost to get into the top 10 from 27.

We don't know what picks were included, assuming there were four firsts in the mix (and it sounds about right), but the rumor is that a BKN pick was included. I remain convinced that a Brooklyn pick was never in the mix, but Danny's letting that rumor hang around to give the impression that even he can be taken advantage of occasionally.

Mike

Interesting.

Title: Re: The Pros and Cons of cashing in future Draft pick for a high pick this year
Post by: Moranis on June 08, 2018, 01:03:20 PM
I don't believe that Sacramento is certain to be a bottom 5 team.  They could be, but they were the 7th worst team this year, are adding the #2 pick, and have plenty of cap room.  They could easily pass the Nets and Knicks and may pass the Lakers if they end up punting in free agency.  It is far from a given that the Suns, Mavs, Hawks, Bulls, and Magic improve more then them and who knows how healthy the Grizzlies will actually be.  The Hornets seems like a team that could go into full bore tank mode and the Cavs might if James leaves.  This notion that the Kings are guaranteed to be a bottom 5 team is just hogwash.  They certainly might be, but the odds as they look right now would say they won't be. 
that's even more hogwash.
-Knicks should get Porzingis back so that will improve them quite a bit even if he's working his way back into shape during the season.
-Brooklyn, Knicks, LA, Chicago and Dallas are far more likely to land better FAs than Sacramento.  In fact, pretty much almost any other market is more likely to land better FAs than Sacramento.
-Memphis should have both Conley and Gasol back which makes them a much better team.
-Phx has young players that are considered better than what Sac has on their roster.   Same for Chicago.
Orlando has some more youth that could also improve this year.

you can't cherry pick Sac's youth as the only ones who'll be better than they were this year.  All but Brooklyn are getting a top pick this year.  Whether Sac gets Ayton or Doncic, they'll probably be good rookies but they'll be just that, rookies.  They're not going to dramatically improve that team.

As far as bottom teams go, prior to the draft and free agency, I see Sac, Hawks, Orlando, Chicago and Phx as the likely bottom 5 of the league next year.  Lakers, Brooklyn, NY are likely the next 3 but figure there will be a gap in the standing between the bottom 4-5 and the next grouping of teams.
Dallas, NY, and Brooklyn have had cap space for years and they come out of it with players like Harrison Barnes, Tim Hardaway, and Jeremy Lin (George Hill, Vince Carter, and Zach Randolph who all signed as free agents in Sacto might be better F.A. gets).  I think their time as perceived free agent destinations should probably just come to an end until you know they actually sign someone.  Chicago hasn't drawn anyone in a long time either.  The Lakers are clearly a pretty solid destination, but they were last year when KCP was the best they could do (and before that it was Deng an Mozgov).  If George and James don't go there, the Lakers aren't going to be very good.  Gasol played in 73 games last year.  He obviously didn't do much for their record.  Conley was only 12, but he is coming back from a pretty major injury and he relied a lot on his athletic qualities in his game.  Maybe he is healthy or maybe not.  The Magic are getting worse not better.  It is fine to claim they are young, but their young players are leading to less wins and generally haven't shown much improvement.  The Hornets are likely to cash in their chips and tank.  The Hawks and Suns are going to be terrible without some major free agents (or trades) being made. 

The Kings are an interesting group.  I mean Bogdan was pretty darn good in his 1st year, but he is pretty darn old as rookies go.  WCS has improved every year.  Fox looked like a real player at times last year.  Hield improved his efficiency a great deal.  Labissiere has immense talent as does Giles (who obviously is about as a big a health concern as anyone in the league).  Plus, as you say they are adding Ayton or Doncic in all likelihood.