CelticsStrong
Celtics Basketball => Celtics Talk => Topic started by: slightly biased bias fan on May 17, 2018, 10:48:47 AM
-
It seems like Scary Terry is playing himself out of Boston, next season someone is offering him the max and we won't be able/willing to match so IMO unless he is being packaged in a Davis deal, Celtics front office should entertain the thought of trading him for a pick in this deep draft especially given the depth of front court talent.
A quick look at the draft position of Clippers at 12 & 13 says we could get one of those picks (Bradley, Rivers (PO), Teodosic (PO) are off-contract) but could we go higher? Hornets are going to trade Kemba, so Rozier would be a great replacement for the 11th pick... and who knows maybe with the right package we could convince Orlando to part with the 6th pick.
-
It seems like Scary Terry is playing himself out of Boston, next season someone is offering him the max and we won't be able/willing to match so IMO unless he is being packaged in a Davis deal, Celtics front office should entertain the thought of trading him for a pick in this deep draft especially given the depth of front court talent.
A quick look at the draft position of Clippers at 12 & 13 says we could get one of those picks (Bradley, Rivers (PO), Teodosic (PO) are off-contract) but could we go higher? Hornets are going to trade Kemba, so Rozier would be a great replacement for the 11th pick... and who knows maybe with the right package we could convince Orlando to part with the 6th pick.
I don't know anywhere near enough about who might be available at #6, but if one of those promising big men that folks have been talking about all year is available, I think we might entice Orlando with Terry plus the Sac pick. I am of the opinion that GMs are very hesitant to trade high draft picks (especially in a top heavy draft) when the pick they trade could turn out to be a very high quality player. Terry Rozier seems like a sure thing (sure starter) to us, but I think GMs might see him as a guy who is close to his ceiling and who is looking good in part due to his role in Boston.
-
Besides the teams (and picks) that you mentioned, I think that we may be able to pull off a deal with either Knicks (#9 pick) or Chicago (#7 pick). I assume both teams will be looking for a point guard in this draft. The #7 pick might be a bit unrealistic if Trae Young is still on the board and I don't see who we would be interested in picking at #9 (doubt Bamba will still be available - a possible target for Cavs at #8?).
Regarding the Chicago pick at #7: Weren't they interested in picking Rozier at #21 instead of Bobby Portis in the draft? If they are still interested that might make a deal with Chicago plausible.
-
I don't think Terry is getting the max from anyone. Not in a league with so many good pg's and not after he spends another season coming off the bench behind Kyrie. So I'm not worried about having to match a max.
And I'm not worried about him leaving for nothing because that rarely happens with restricted free agency. I think if he stays another year, the most likely outcome is a sign and trade the summer of '19, which is fine with me because I think he can help the C's win a championship next year and we'll still have Kyrie (only 2 years older than Terry) and Marcus around.
To actually answer your question: Orlando, and Cleveland need pg's but I don't think anyone else in the lottery is dying for a pg and if there are 2 pg's projected to go in the top 10, no one might want to trade out of the lottery for Rozier (and I'd be a little surprised if Cleveland wanted to deal with Boston). So this year, Rozier might not fetch much for a draft pick.
-
Soon the rest of the NBA will figure out that you are not going to get the same players as Celtics as they will get for their new teams ... Literally every player that has left/trade Stevens for another team has gotten progressively worse... IT/Crowder/Johnson(already bad)/Bradley/Jerkbo/Turner/Olynck(about the same?)
hopefully this will eventually be the "Stevens incentive"
-
We need an owner to look at Terry the way Sacramento looked at Buddy Hield last year.
Also, picking six through 12 is hardly a guarantee that you are going to get a quality starter. If you already have a few players with upside because you have been picking high in the draft, it might be time to look for a guy who has shown he can play at this level. Think about Orlando – they already have Isaac and Aaron, and they have a guy in Fournier who can play. Do they really want to draft a point guard and wait a few years to see if he pans out? Why not inject a guy you know Kim play, and who might also bring some needed grit and winning team culture? I also think that Orlando is not a team like Boston, that is thinking championship or bust. Getting out of the basement would be worth something.
-
Well, who knows what we could get but I do agree that if there is an odd man out, it probably should be Rozier.
-
What does a top point guard get back in trade?
Just look back to the Jrue Holiday trade.
The Sixers obtained Nerlens Noel (drafted #6 overall in 2013) and the 14th pick of the 2014 NBA draft.
This probably does not happen in quite this way for us. But it does set a standard.
We might end up trading Rozier, but he is going to end up a hell of a player for someone. I would love for us to extend both Rozier and Smart as they have been great for us in the playoffs.
-
Why on earth would we give up Terry PLUS the Sacramento pick for #6 when the Sacramento pick alone has a huge possibility of being a top 5 pick?
That makes ZERO sense. Terry was a #16 overall pick and he has played like he should have been taken top 6 overall, top 10 at worst in his draft class.
If we trade him for a pick, it would be the other team needing to add, not the other way around.
I don't know anywhere near enough about who might be available at #6, but if one of those promising big men that folks have been talking about all year is available, I think we might entice Orlando with Terry plus the Sac pick. I am of the opinion that GMs are very hesitant to trade high draft picks (especially in a top heavy draft) when the pick they trade could turn out to be a very high quality player. Terry Rozier seems like a sure thing (sure starter) to us, but I think GMs might see him as a guy who is close to his ceiling and who is looking good in part due to his role in Boston.
-
With every win here on out, the price is going up. If we somehow get through Lebron, the price goes up, if somehow we get through the next opponent and win the finals, then what? Besides hanging a banner, how valuable would Terry be then and would it change the way we view moving forward if he continues to have a big impact on us winning. Does Danny start to think, hmm..maybe I will throw Kyrie/Kings pick and a ton of other stuff to Pelicans if Davis wants out which I dont believe is going to happen in the near term.
I am clueless what the value is now and what it could be if things continue to be incredible for us. I would think now it is 6-10 but if we are in the finals, it could be bumped a few notches higher. '
How valuable he would be to us though if we kept him and had a duo of Kyrie/Rozier for an entire 48 minutes per night?Pretty Scary stuff....I am in the court of keeping him until I at least see Kyrie's recovery and prognosis but Danny is the Trader and he knows striking when the gold is falling from the sky.
Maybe in the end, he is more valuable to us as a Celtics player next season. But depending on things this year, everything can change based on results.
-
15 to Phoenix is still as high as I think we will get. Maybe they throw in Bender or Chriss but Ive got no interest in either of those guys.
-
The problem is that Terry is an RFA after next year. So, he's only cost controlled for one year. The team trading for him has to be willing to match any offer he would get from any other team (or sign him to a long-term deal if that's doable). That really limits the options and therefore the value of the pick.
-
Mid draft, so 15 give or take a few slots. Its all about finding a match with a pick in that range of valuable but not too valuable.
Given how well this team is playing and the potential for next year I think keeping him and letting him walk might be the play to maximize next year's potential. I can't imagine he'll accept an extension at the number the C's will offer. Both for money reasons and simply because I think Terry wants to start in the league.
-
Not high enough. Having a guy like Terry on the bench will be invaluable if we want to go for a Championship next season (which we should do)
-
Mid draft, so 15 give or take a few slots. Its all about finding a match with a pick in that range of valuable but not too valuable.
Given how well this team is playing and the potential for next year I think keeping him and letting him walk might be the play to maximize next year's potential. I can't imagine he'll accept an extension at the number the C's will offer. Both for money reasons and simply because I think Terry wants to start in the league.
My initial reaction is that Terry Rozier who has proven to be a steal at 16 would fetch back more than his original draft slot. I think if your pick is in the 7-10 range, landing a Rozier-caliber talent would be considered a win generally, so that would be fair value.
Looking back through the few years of picks 7-10 leading up to Rozier's draft I see: Biyombo, Brandin Knight, Kemba, Jimmer Fredette, Harrison Barnes, Terrence Ross, Andre Drummond, Austin Rivers, Ben McLemore, KCP, Trey Burke, CJ McCollum, Julius Randle, Nik Stauskas, Noah Vonleh, Elfrid Payton, Mudiay, Stanley Johnson, Kaminsky, Justice Winslow.
Rozier would be in the top half of that crop meaning pretty good value for that range on average.
-
Not high enough. Having a guy like Terry on the bench will be invaluable if we want to go for a Championship next season (which we should do)
Yeah, I agree this draft seems a little top heavy. It might be the draft to trade the 1st for 2nds but we don't really have any room on our roster unless we let go of some guys. I really like this team just the way it is. Maybe some team falls in love with a late 1st round prospect and Danny can get a future 1st from them.
There does seem to be value all the way into the late 2nd round here though....
-
Why on earth would we give up Terry PLUS the Sacramento pick for #6 when the Sacramento pick alone has a huge possibility of being a top 5 pick?
That makes ZERO sense. Terry was a #16 overall pick and he has played like he should have been taken top 6 overall, top 10 at worst in his draft class.
If we trade him for a pick, it would be the other team needing to add, not the other way around.
I don't know anywhere near enough about who might be available at #6, but if one of those promising big men that folks have been talking about all year is available, I think we might entice Orlando with Terry plus the Sac pick. I am of the opinion that GMs are very hesitant to trade high draft picks (especially in a top heavy draft) when the pick they trade could turn out to be a very high quality player. Terry Rozier seems like a sure thing (sure starter) to us, but I think GMs might see him as a guy who is close to his ceiling and who is looking good in part due to his role in Boston.
Because TR has more value to the Celtics than he does to others. Of course I don't know this -- but this is what I think. I think the #6 in a top-heavy draft (perhaps far better than what next year's #6 will get), is very high value. We'd give a rotation guard (a mid-level starter) and a draft pick that is possibly in the top 5 next year -- but also possibly 6 to 10 in predictably less talented draft class.
Yeah, I think this blog is overvaluing what TR would return in terms of a draft pick in this year's draft and if you want to get into the elite range of picks THIS YEAR -- you have to give some strong value along with TR. I also may be wrong.
-
Terry Rozier is not getting the max. Sorry, that's crazy.
-
Late lottery at best if there’s a believer, probably not though
-
If Kyrie is not committed to resigning, Terry is going nowhere. I am sure Danny will or has had long talks with Kyrie about his future with us so until he knows for sure, trading Terry for a pick or anything is most likely not going to happen. It could be the quietest summer ever or one that shocks us all!
-
My general estimation would be as follows:
- Probable best offer: 15-20
- Reasonable offer: 11-14
- Offer the Celtics should accept: top 10 pick
Teams often value draft picks more when the draft approaches and fall in love with a draft prospect, therefore I think teams only offer a mid-late first rounder. A late lottery pick seems as fair value to me. Rozier has outplayed his draft spot and has upside. On the other hand a draftee will have 3 more years under the rookie scale and could be the next 'Donovan Mitchell'.
An early lottery pick would be far too risky for teams to offer, however I believe Rozier's value to the Celtics is that high that we should demand a good lottery pick (which we won't get and therefore shouldn't trade him). Of course the exact draft pick you would accept depends on your assessment of this draft class.
I haven't been following draft analyses as much as previous years, but it seems like a deep draft at the top. If a player like Bamba or Carter would drop to a mid lottery pick I would want to make a trade for Rozier (and sweeten the deal with a non-Kings 1st).
-
I think a trade up in the draft is very possible. Ainge has Rozier, Brown and high draft picks that could be expendable.It depends on whether Ainge sees somebody he wants and has the assets to trade up to get him. The rumor is he wants to trade up to get Bamba. But the media has made such a big deal about the kid, and GMs are suckers for bigs in the draft, so this doesn't look likely. His value has gone up with all the publicity. But there could be others. Their biggest need is a tall rim protector that can pass the Stevens 3P acid test. Anybody else out there besides Bamba and Ayton?
-
My general estimation would be as follows:
- Probable best offer: 15-20
- Reasonable offer: 11-14
- Offer the Celtics should accept: top 10 pick
Teams often value draft picks more when the draft approaches and fall in love with a draft prospect, therefore I think teams only offer a mid-late first rounder. A late lottery pick seems as fair value to me. Rozier has outplayed his draft spot and has upside. On the other hand a draftee will have 3 more years under the rookie scale and could be the next 'Donovan Mitchell'.
An early lottery pick would be far too risky for teams to offer, however I believe Rozier's value to the Celtics is that high that we should demand a good lottery pick (which we won't get and therefore shouldn't trade him). Of course the exact draft pick you would accept depends on your assessment of this draft class.
I haven't been following draft analyses as much as previous years, but it seems like a deep draft at the top. If a player like Bamba or Carter would drop to a mid lottery pick I would want to make a trade for Rozier (and sweeten the deal with a non-Kings 1st).
I think this is pretty much spot on. With the Celtics PG position up in the air next year (Smart’s free agency, Kyrie’s injury), Rozier should only be traded for a pick that can land us an elite prospect, and not merely a good prospect. Failing that, it’s best to keep him and see if he can be even better in year 4 than year 3. And it is quite likely that another team won’t need Rozier as much next year as we do, which is perfectly fine.
-
I would compare him to the top PGs in the draft. Do you like him more or less? That should help to determine his market value. I don't like Trae Young and I'm unsure about Colin Sexton. I actually don't think this is a strong draft.
-
I would compare him to the top PGs in the draft. Do you like him more or less? That should help to determine his market value. I don't like Trae Young and I'm unsure about Colin Sexton. I actually don't think this is a strong draft.
Agree
-
If Kyrie is not committed to resigning, Terry is going nowhere. I am sure Danny will or has had long talks with Kyrie about his future with us so until he knows for sure, trading Terry for a pick or anything is most likely not going to happen. It could be the quietest summer ever or one that shocks us all!
So, until we have Kyrie signed or at least committed Rozier is going nowhere. I like that reasoning. Then why not resign and trade Smart? Or Morris? either or both and our pick should be enough to move us up in the draft.
-
People here still don't know how Danny works with draft picks. He doesn't trade players for immediate draft picks. He always trade for future picks with unknown projection and uncertain team future. See his pattern:
2012 - Clippers pick via OKC. Would have been a late lottery if it wasn't for the CP3 trade. Turned into Fab Melo
2013 - Mavs pick. C's were rebuilding so it made sense to trade up for the draft. Turned into Olynyk
2014 - Nets pick. Just a gravy for much better picks from the same package. Turned into James Young
2016 - Mavs pick acquired from Rondo trade. Turned out to be Yabusele
2016 - Nets pick. One of the prized assets. Turned into Jaylen
2017 - Nets swap. Another valuable asset. Turned into Tatum
2019 - Clips pick (lottery protected, quite complicated).
2019 - Griz pick
It doesn't make sense if Ainge got the picks from the time the deal was exactly made as they were projected to be late first. LAC 2012, DAL 2016, LAC 2019 and MEM 2019 have unknown draft projection. So was the 3 other BKN picks which one of them was turned into 2019 SAC pick
Keep an eye on both the LAC and MEM pick as they might also turn into another gold. If Danny is to trade Rozier, he'll probably ask for a pick from 2020 onwards.
-
Terry is a solid combo guard. I don't see his value as a point guard though. Call me crazy.
Anyway he just doesn't seem to have starting point guard chops. In Boston, since Cousy, we know what a starting PG is.
Terry is what he is in Boston, really good off the bench guy, if a team needs what he has, Ainge could get a pick for him, but since when does Ainge want picks now? He's like $112 dollars under the cap and everybody on the roster is getting a raise over the next few years.
14th pick overall...just keep him, going for the bacon next season and we need to be Scary.