CelticsStrong
Around the League => Transaction Ideas and Rumors => Topic started by: Humble G on May 04, 2018, 12:54:06 PM
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Like what is the worth of each player? It seems that keeping Rozier and trading Kyrie is the new crazy idea floating around the web these days and it makes some sense......or does it?
1. Could we trade Kyrie and get a top pick in this draft from like Dallas, Suns, Magic etc? Then draft our starting Big.
PG: Rozier/Smart
SG: Brown/??
SF: Hayward/Tatum
PF: Horford/Theis
C: DraftPick/ Baynes
OR
2. Trade Rozier for something I dunno what. I saw a trade idea with the Suns :
Suns - Terry Rozier
Celtics - Troy Daniels, No. 16, No. 31, Milwaukee pick
https://www.brightsideofthesun.com/2018/5/1/17307820/terry-rozier-meteoric-rise-sets-him-up-as-the-perfect-trade-target-this-summer-for-phoenix-suns-nba
* Funny that we drafted him at 16 in 2015
Whats everyone's thoughts on which would be better fit/value Rozier or Kyrie
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I accidentally watched First Take this morning (I know, I know) and there was an entire segment on this in regards to Kawhi.
SAS thought we should trade Kyrie for Kawhi in a straight up trade of 'five star' players. Here, Rozier and Smart would take over playmaking duties and the rest of our team would be a switching nightmare for other teams.
Kellerman thought that a trade of Hayward/Rozier/a pick for Kawhi would be best since we would get to keep both 'five star' players while taking advantage of Rozier's increased value the year before his contract expires.
I realize there is an entire thread on Kawhi that has gotten quite extensive, but I am not sure I want to give up Rozier at all right now. Not that I definitely want to deal Kyrie, but Rozier is finally combining some control with his elite athleticism. He is also so engaged on both ends - the dude is just electric. I would hate to just deal him for a mid-1st.
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Small sample size, but Rozier has shown steady improvement since summer league up until now. The high level and consistent play in the playoffs is the end game, so as long as he doesn't bomb the rest of the post-season, I honestly think he can fetch a pick between 6-12 range.
There aren't as many NBA ready PG's in this draft, and there are a lot of teams in need of the skill set that Rozier offers.
I think by draft night, teams will be willing to trade a guy like Bamba or Wendell Carter, who yes offer a ton of upside, but are not as "surefire" as Ayton/Bagley. Plenty of teams would likely rather hedge the risk of one of these guys being a bust, to bring a proven talent like Rozier.
Bamba/Carter would be a great addition once Kyrie returns as the starting PG.
Baynes has had a very mercurial post season, and Monroes inability to get on the court, proves our need for a rim protector to also allow Horford to do more of what he is best at, would be huge for Stevens in terms of personnel.
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I don't think rozier can get a high lotto pick unless he's part of a larger trade. I think he's worth about 15th pick by himself.
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I would trade kyrie for leonard straight up
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Small sample size, but Rozier has shown steady improvement since summer league up until now. The high level and consistent play in the playoffs is the end game, so as long as he doesn't bomb the rest of the post-season, I honestly think he can fetch a pick between 6-12 range.
There aren't as many NBA ready PG's in this draft, and there are a lot of teams in need of the skill set that Rozier offers.
I think by draft night, teams will be willing to trade a guy like Bamba or Wendell Carter, who yes offer a ton of upside, but are not as "surefire" as Ayton/Bagley. Plenty of teams would likely rather hedge the risk of one of these guys being a bust, to bring a proven talent like Rozier.
Bamba/Carter would be a great addition once Kyrie returns as the starting PG.
Baynes has had a very mercurial post season, and Monroes inability to get on the court, proves our need for a rim protector to also allow Horford to do more of what he is best at, would be huge for Stevens in terms of personnel.
I don't know anything about college players, but I've been reading/hearing about the top of this draft for 2 years.
You really think Terry Rozier gets a top 7 pick from Suns, Griz, Mavs, Hawks, Magic, Bulls or Kings? I think it would be like if the C's got the 5th pick from LAL and traded it for, say, Elfrid Payton or Reggie Jackson. And this would be giving Terry the benefit of the doubt because he's "proven" himself in only about half a season. I really have no idea if I'm correct, but I would think Danny would be ecstatic and dumbfounded if he could get a top 7 pick for Terry in this draft.
I'd be glad to be wrong as TR's value to this team, while great to have on the bench, is MUCH decreased when KI returns.
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Im sure DA will seize the opportunity and gauge Terry's value around the league.
If he fetches a pick in the 6-10 range then i'll think long and hard about it.
Terry is coming to a point that he has to be given a starting gig somewhere and im sure Danny may oblige specially if it nets a fair return..
Don't laugh at me but Ive seen something in Jabari Bird in his very short stint near the end of the season to say that maybe he can take over Terry's job coming off the bench to relieve Kyrie...sure Terry is better but its not out of the realm of imposibility that Bird can do a Terry rozier improvement in his 2nd season...Terry did also made some small strides in year 2.
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I don't think rozier can get a high lotto pick unless he's part of a larger trade. I think he's worth about 15th pick by himself.
too low...the guy was already a 16th pick himself on his own draft class and in a redraft now of 2015, Terry is going at least top 6 the way he is playing out of his mind.
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I don't think rozier can get a high lotto pick unless he's part of a larger trade. I think he's worth about 15th pick by himself.
too low...the guy was already a 16th pick himself on his own draft class and in a redraft now of 2015, Terry is going at least top 6 the way he is playing out of his mind.
Where Rozier would fall in a redraft of his draft class is irrelevant. It has nothing to do with his current value amongst all players league wide and the prospects available in the upcoming draft. That is what you have to compare Rozier's value to in order to determine if he is worth a lottery pick in the upcoming draft.
And I think asking for a lottery pick is just too much. I'd wager you could probably get a pick somewhere in the late teens though. Maybe some team desperate for a starting PG would give up a pick in the 11-14 range, but I think that is very questionable.
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I don't think rozier can get a high lotto pick unless he's part of a larger trade. I think he's worth about 15th pick by himself.
too low...the guy was already a 16th pick himself on his own draft class and in a redraft now of 2015, Terry is going at least top 6 the way he is playing out of his mind.
rozier is an expiring contract. You realize that right
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I don't think rozier can get a high lotto pick unless he's part of a larger trade. I think he's worth about 15th pick by himself.
I think he is worth a little more folks. GMs know what they are getting in Terry. They don't with a pick. I doubt he could get a top five pick, but maybe a 6-12 range. We would still need a backup guard because who do we have that can score besides Kyrie reliably in the back court?
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I don't think rozier can get a high lotto pick unless he's part of a larger trade. I think he's worth about 15th pick by himself.
too low...the guy was already a 16th pick himself on his own draft class and in a redraft now of 2015, Terry is going at least top 6 the way he is playing out of his mind.
rozier is an expiring contract. You realize that right
Rozier's contract status isn't really a factor, at least not in a significant manner. He has one more year on his rookie deal and then will be a RFA, giving any team that trades for him right of first refusal. This is far different from trading for a veteran who would be a UFA.
The issue is, rarely do teams give up lottery picks for players who probably aren't even top 10 at their position.
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I think the George Hill trade is a good baseline. That was a 3 teamer with Jeff Teague and the 12th pick. Both pf those guys were starters at the time. Maybe Rozier is with a little more due to hi youth so id say 10-12 is probably the range, little highest uf we package 27.
And im not trading Kyrie.
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I don't think rozier can get a high lotto pick unless he's part of a larger trade. I think he's worth about 15th pick by himself.
too low...the guy was already a 16th pick himself on his own draft class and in a redraft now of 2015, Terry is going at least top 6 the way he is playing out of his mind.
rozier is an expiring contract. You realize that right
Rozier's contract status isn't really a factor, at least not in a significant manner. He has one more year on his rookie deal and then will be a RFA, giving any team that trades for him right of first refusal. This is far different from trading for a veteran who would be a UFA.
The issue is, rarely do teams give up lottery picks for players who probably aren't even top 10 at their position.
I dunno. Look at the Clips, picking 11 and 12. Suppose they decide they want a PG. Who can they get at 11, and what are the odds that player is better than Rozier? I think everything depends on who you think TR is. Is he playoff Terry, getting a very efficient 20 ppg (TS% above 60), 6-7 assists on very low turnovers, 5 rpg, and solid defense, all against motivated playoff competition? Or is he the guy who was much less efficient before the playoffs, making more than his share of bad basketball plays.
If you believe playoff Terry is for real, that could be your guy even for a lotto pick. The other parts of this, that are harder to assess, involve where the team is in its development and salary structure. To get a high pick you need a team that wants to start getting better fairly soon and doesn't mind spending to keep him a year from now. They'd be spending decent money on a player who is good but doesn't project as a true franchise player. That involves a lot of variables. I kind of wish Orlando was few picks worse in the draft - say, 8th - because for them it might make sense.
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I don't think rozier can get a high lotto pick unless he's part of a larger trade. I think he's worth about 15th pick by himself.
I think he is worth a little more folks. GMs know what they are getting in Terry. They don't with a pick. I doubt he could get a top five pick, but maybe a 6-12 range. We would still need a backup guard because who do we have that can score besides Kyrie reliably in the back court?
I don't think rozier can get a high lotto pick unless he's part of a larger trade. I think he's worth about 15th pick by himself.
too low...the guy was already a 16th pick himself on his own draft class and in a redraft now of 2015, Terry is going at least top 6 the way he is playing out of his mind.
rozier is an expiring contract. You realize that right
Rozier's contract status isn't really a factor, at least not in a significant manner. He has one more year on his rookie deal and then will be a RFA, giving any team that trades for him right of first refusal. This is far different from trading for a veteran who would be a UFA.
The issue is, rarely do teams give up lottery picks for players who probably aren't even top 10 at their position.
You two have convinced me. I know how good he is compared to an unknown, however, I didn’t consider the restricted free agent factor at all. I think Rozier could get a top 10 pick in a specific situation. If we can take the Suns pick for Rozier I’m naming my next boy Daniel.
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If we were going to make a trade for Kawhi, mark me as one who would rather trade Kyrie.
Rozier
Brown
Kawhi
Tatum
Horford
Who TF scores on them??
I accidentally watched First Take this morning (I know, I know) and there was an entire segment on this in regards to Kawhi.
SAS thought we should trade Kyrie for Kawhi in a straight up trade of 'five star' players. Here, Rozier and Smart would take over playmaking duties and the rest of our team would be a switching nightmare for other teams.
Kellerman thought that a trade of Hayward/Rozier/a pick for Kawhi would be best since we would get to keep both 'five star' players while taking advantage of Rozier's increased value the year before his contract expires.
I realize there is an entire thread on Kawhi that has gotten quite extensive, but I am not sure I want to give up Rozier at all right now. Not that I definitely want to deal Kyrie, but Rozier is finally combining some control with his elite athleticism. He is also so engaged on both ends - the dude is just electric. I would hate to just deal him for a mid-1st.
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I would trade Rozier for the chance to grab Jaren Jackson at 6/7 if he is there.
I don't think rozier can get a high lotto pick unless he's part of a larger trade. I think he's worth about 15th pick by himself.
I think he is worth a little more folks. GMs know what they are getting in Terry. They don't with a pick. I doubt he could get a top five pick, but maybe a 6-12 range. We would still need a backup guard because who do we have that can score besides Kyrie reliably in the back court?
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I don't think rozier can get a high lotto pick unless he's part of a larger trade. I think he's worth about 15th pick by himself.
too low...the guy was already a 16th pick himself on his own draft class and in a redraft now of 2015, Terry is going at least top 6 the way he is playing out of his mind.
rozier is an expiring contract. You realize that right
No he isn't.
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I don't think rozier can get a high lotto pick unless he's part of a larger trade. I think he's worth about 15th pick by himself.
too low...the guy was already a 16th pick himself on his own draft class and in a redraft now of 2015, Terry is going at least top 6 the way he is playing out of his mind.
rozier is an expiring contract. You realize that right
No he isn't.
yes he is. When he is eligible to be traded he will be an expiring contract
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If we were going to make a trade for Kawhi, mark me as one who would rather trade Kyrie.
Rozier
Brown
Kawhi
Tatum
Horford
Who TF scores on them??
I think I would trade Kyrie for Leonard straight up as well, despite how tough that would be for me to agree to.... Its tough to win in the NBA with your best player as your point guard. It doesn't happen often and having such a strong rotation of wing players for us would not only be absurd but more beneficial.
The best part....You forgot to add Hayward in that lineup.
Rozier 26/Smart 22
Hayward 20/Brown 28
Leonard 34/Hayward 14/Semi
Tatum 30/Morris 18
Horford 30/Baynes 18/Theis
Thats an absurd lineup.
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I don't think rozier can get a high lotto pick unless he's part of a larger trade. I think he's worth about 15th pick by himself.
too low...the guy was already a 16th pick himself on his own draft class and in a redraft now of 2015, Terry is going at least top 6 the way he is playing out of his mind.
rozier is an expiring contract. You realize that right
No he isn't.
yes he is. When he is eligible to be traded he will be an expiring contract
What...
He is always eligible to be traded. He has one more year under his current contract in 2018-2019 then becomes an RFA 19-20 in which we have the right to match any offer.
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I don't think rozier can get a high lotto pick unless he's part of a larger trade. I think he's worth about 15th pick by himself.
too low...the guy was already a 16th pick himself on his own draft class and in a redraft now of 2015, Terry is going at least top 6 the way he is playing out of his mind.
rozier is an expiring contract. You realize that right
No he isn't.
yes he is. When he is eligible to be traded he will be an expiring contract
What...
He is always eligible to be traded. He has one more year under his current contract in 2018-2019 then becomes an RFA 19-20 in which we have the right to match any offer.
I think what he means is that by the time trading players opens up again in July that he will have only a year left on his contract and so be an expiring contract.Kinda wierd way to look at things, but technically correct and really doesn't effect his trade value very much as the team that trades for him owns his RFA rights and so can match any offer he gets.
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I don't think rozier can get a high lotto pick unless he's part of a larger trade. I think he's worth about 15th pick by himself.
too low...the guy was already a 16th pick himself on his own draft class and in a redraft now of 2015, Terry is going at least top 6 the way he is playing out of his mind.
rozier is an expiring contract. You realize that right
No he isn't.
yes he is. When he is eligible to be traded he will be an expiring contract
What...
He is always eligible to be traded. He has one more year under his current contract in 2018-2019 then becomes an RFA 19-20 in which we have the right to match any offer.
I think what he means is that by the time trading players opens up again in July that he will have only a year left on his contract and so be an expiring contract.Kinda wierd way to look at things, but technically correct and really doesn't effect his trade value very much as the team that trades for him owns his RFA rights and so can match any offer he gets.
Gotcha, thanks for clearing that up. Indeed a strange way of looking at it. But as you say, since hes an RFA thats not going to be a problem for teams.
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If it was guarantee that next season Rozier would continue to put up the same stats he has these playoffs, you could probably get a top 3 pick for him.
Unfortunately we don’t really know how good Rozier will be on a different team with full time starting duties.
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I don't want another draft pick for Rozier since it won't be a top 10 pick and since all we are doing is cashing in all the equity we built in Rozier and kicking it down the road with a trade for a similarly risky outside the top ten pick only to have to develop that player for a payoff 3-4 years down the road. We aren't a rebuilding team anymore. We have the Sac pick, the Mem pick, the LAC pick and all our picks. We do not need more picks.
If you are trading Rozier, you best be getting soneone who can crack a playoff rotation and be able to contribute at a high level now. Not sure who that would be but a player like Mirotic would be a great fit. Sabonis maybe. Willie Cauley Stein maybe.
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Kyrie out if Rozier plays spectacular basketball and we reach the finals/win the chip. Expecting a top five pick in this draft for him.
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No more middling picks. Trade for another overlooked promising young player with more years left on his contract, or just ride it out
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I don't want another draft pick for Rozier since it won't be a top 10 pick and since all we are doing is cashing in all the equity we built in Rozier and kicking it down the road with a trade for a similarly risky outside the top ten pick only to have to develop that player for a payoff 3-4 years down the road. We aren't a rebuilding team anymore. We have the Sac pick, the Mem pick, the LAC pick and all our picks. We do not need more picks.
If you are trading Rozier, you best be getting soneone who can crack a playoff rotation and be able to contribute at a high level now. Not sure who that would be but a player like Mirotic would be a great fit. Sabonis maybe. Willie Cauley Stein maybe.
Yep. Go all in next year with Rozier off the bench, unless we could snag Sabonis for him. Rozier and Oladipo would be a crazy athletic back-court.
Sick of seeing trades of Rozier for a late lotto pick. Would much rather see TRoz shred GSW's backup guards in the 2019 Finals ;)
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No more middling picks. Trade for another overlooked promising young player with more years left on his contract, or just ride it out
If we must trade Rozier, what I don't want to see is us trading him for a player with only one or two years left on his rookie deal. At first I was in favor of trading him for somebody from the 2016 draft to get an extra year out of the contract (like AB for Morris), but Rozier is proving far too valuable for just one extra year.
Unfortunately that means that we either have to deal with the unknown from this draft where the value of potential is always more valuable (meaning not acquiring a high enough pick) or picking up a Josh Jackson, Jonathan Isaac type from last draft.
If Rozier continues to be one of our best players and we go all the way to the finals, I would consider a Kyrie for Kawhi trade. At least in that case we get equivalent or greater value where I don't think we will ever come close by dealing Rozier.
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I don't think Rozier's value to most teams is any higher than a 2018 late lottery pick + a veteran rotation player. Reason being is that GM's around the league are placing significant value on rookie contracts. Rozier will be owed 20+ million when he hits restricted free agency. Is he really worth it for any franchise that exceeds the salary cap without becoming a deep playoff team? Luxury tax implications are also a concern. The worst situation in the NBA is being a non-contender with no financial flexibility.
Who really knows though. Danny usually finds one team who will significantly overpay. Don't be surprised if he deals Rozier for multiple picks starting in 2019 + a veteran rotation guard. Fans will be bummed that we didn't acquire a 2018 lotto pick, but then everyone will praise the genius of Ainge when the 2020 draft arrives and we have a chance for a top 5 pick lol.
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I don't want another draft pick for Rozier since it won't be a top 10 pick and since all we are doing is cashing in all the equity we built in Rozier and kicking it down the road with a trade for a similarly risky outside the top ten pick only to have to develop that player for a payoff 3-4 years down the road. We aren't a rebuilding team anymore. We have the Sac pick, the Mem pick, the LAC pick and all our picks. We do not need more picks.
If you are trading Rozier, you best be getting soneone who can crack a playoff rotation and be able to contribute at a high level now. Not sure who that would be but a player like Mirotic would be a great fit. Sabonis maybe. Willie Cauley Stein maybe.
Yep. Go all in next year with Rozier off the bench, unless we could snag Sabonis for him. Rozier and Oladipo would be a crazy athletic back-court.
Sick of seeing trades of Rozier for a late lotto pick. Would much rather see TRoz shred GSW's backup guards in the 2019 Finals ;)
What are your thoughts on a potential deal with the Clippers? Doc will resist a rebuild but he no longer has the GM duties. The Clippers are one of the few teams who can provide a 2018 lottery pick & a rotation guard, all while maintaining financial flexibility for the future.
Celtics receive:
2018 late lottery pick(Clippers have two)
Patrick Beverley (not sure if he will be happy in bench role for 25 MPG)
Clippers receive:
Terry Rozier
A bench guard combo of Beverley and Smart would be perfect in potential match-ups with Golden State or Houston. Beverley is also a an excellent 3 point shooter.
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I don't think rozier can get a high lotto pick unless he's part of a larger trade. I think he's worth about 15th pick by himself.
too low...the guy was already a 16th pick himself on his own draft class and in a redraft now of 2015, Terry is going at least top 6 the way he is playing out of his mind.
rozier is an expiring contract. You realize that right
No he isn't.
yes he is. When he is eligible to be traded he will be an expiring contract
He’ll be an expiring contract as of July 1.
He’s eligible to be traded as soon as our season is over.
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I don't want another draft pick for Rozier since it won't be a top 10 pick and since all we are doing is cashing in all the equity we built in Rozier and kicking it down the road with a trade for a similarly risky outside the top ten pick only to have to develop that player for a payoff 3-4 years down the road. We aren't a rebuilding team anymore. We have the Sac pick, the Mem pick, the LAC pick and all our picks. We do not need more picks.
If you are trading Rozier, you best be getting soneone who can crack a playoff rotation and be able to contribute at a high level now. Not sure who that would be but a player like Mirotic would be a great fit. Sabonis maybe. Willie Cauley Stein maybe.
Yep. Go all in next year with Rozier off the bench, unless we could snag Sabonis for him. Rozier and Oladipo would be a crazy athletic back-court.
Sick of seeing trades of Rozier for a late lotto pick. Would much rather see TRoz shred GSW's backup guards in the 2019 Finals ;)
What are your thoughts on a potential deal with the Clippers? Doc will resist a rebuild but he no longer has the GM duties. The Clippers are one of the few teams who can provide a 2018 lottery pick & a rotation guard, all while maintaining financial flexibility for the future.
Celtics receive:
2018 late lottery pick(Clippers have two)
Patrick Beverley (not sure if he will be happy in bench role for 25 MPG)
Clippers receive:
Terry Rozier
A bench guard combo of Beverley and Smart would be perfect in potential match-ups with Golden State or Houston. Beverley is also a an excellent 3 point shooter.
No offense but I think that deal is Edited. Profanity and masked profanity are against forum rules and may result in discipline.. A backup PG coming off serious knee surgery on a one year contract and a late lotto pick for Rozier isn't enough. We could get that in a sign-and-trade the following season.
To pry Rozier from my cold, dead hands it's going to take a solid lottery pick and/or him being part of a bigger deal. He's 24 and is averaging 19/5/6.5 in the playoffs after averaging 16/6.5/5 as a starter. We're starting to get a large enough sample size that it's becoming difficult to dismiss this performance level as a fluke or aberration.
Any GM is going to look at that and think they can expect that type of performance with the added bonus of Rozier being young enough and a hard enough worker to continue to improve. I think at least some GMs will look at Terry as a guy who in his prime is a good leader, a good defender, a close to 20ppg scorer who also will pull down 5+ boards and 5+ assists. If that's the case he's worth a helluva lot more than a late lottery pick and a backup injured PG whose contract expires next year.
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the 2 clippers picks this year are ok for rozier... they get their starting pg... we get a back up point guard in sexton and one more youngster
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Beverly has no cartilage in his knee. I'd pass as well.
The best trades with Rozier are the ones we don't make. For now.
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You guys are right. I forgot Beverley destroyed his knee.
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for kyrie.... porzingis and their lotto pick
adetokunbo and 1,2 mid range picks
dennis smith and their lotto pick
booker and their lotto pick
anthony davies
there is no way the celtics trade him
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I think as much as it would pain me, I'd trade Irving for Lenard. Love Irving, but he is the leak link on D. Adding a defensive player of the year plus Haywood next year would be crazy good.
Mine biggest concern is I'm not 100% sold on Rozier yet. He played pretty well in game 3, but has to show me he can play consistently well on the road. So far his numbers have been quite different home vs away. You know you can count on Irving to step up on the road, which is something that separates good from great players, IMO.
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If Scary Terry brings us NBA finals, then yes, I agree we trading Kyrie over him.
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Right now 8 to 12 pick in this draft. But if he has a few more of the same 18 pt 5reb 4ast 0to type games he is going to be worth 3 to 8.
The guy has shown improvement each year and could still be getting better.
I wouldn't deal Irving he is a leader for the team and puts up good #s.
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For Rozier, I hope he wins the Celtics a title. He has really taken a huge leap this year.
I think Irving is the right player to keep though. He is age correct, is a significant offensive threat and is a point guard. Irving doesn't win a big game on fireworks. He wins it using his talent and calm.
Terry Rozier deserves an award as the best defensive "free safety" in the NBA. He has made more important interceptions this year than I can count.
Irving can slip into Kyrie/ISOball, but, with the right team around him? He is better than Terry.
I wonder about trading anyone on the roster for a "draft pick." Should Rozier be traded for a first rounder, what is Ainge going to do with that player? Will he be top 10? If he isn't NBA ready, we are paying out a lot of money to a player who can't help the list of guys below try to win a title.
Brown-Tatum-Hayward-Irving + Horford pretty much covers it doesn't it?. All other roster spots are for guys "who can play" right? Like...ummm...Rozier?
Maybe Danny trades him for a 2021 first rounder and a rotation player, but, Danny doesn't have any money for anything "big" unless he trades a big salary.
Danny could wait to the deadline and trade Terry to a team that has lost their PG?
Yes, a "new" first round salary at $5M in 2018 is ok, but, how many minutes is this new guy gonna get? We have a guy like Bird who is cheap and could be the third string back court guy or a veteran contract somewhere.
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I think as much as it would pain me, I'd trade Irving for Lenard. Love Irving, but he is the leak link on D. Adding a defensive player of the year plus Haywood next year would be crazy good.
Mine biggest concern is I'm not 100% sold on Rozier yet. He played pretty well in game 3, but has to show me he can play consistently well on the road. So far his numbers have been quite different home vs away. You know you can count on Irving to step up on the road, which is something that separates good from great players, IMO.
The idea that Rozier only plays well at home doesn't hold up to long term scrutiny. His career and 2017-18 splits show only a very slight better performance at home than away. In the 2017 playoffs 3 of his best 5 games were on the road. In these playoffs, just about everyone played worse on the road than at home. That isn't a Rozier thing this year its a Celtic thing. Also, of the 4 games the Celtics have played on the road in these playoffs, Rozier has played fairly well in two and been bad in two.
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Right now 8 to 12 pick in this draft. But if he has a few more of the same 18 pt 5reb 4ast 0to type games he is going to be worth 3 to 8.
How many more games should it take? He's been averaging close to that the last 30-40 games (including playoffs).
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Some team might be willing to pay for what they believe is Rozier's potential even if it's SSS.
I think as much as it would pain me, I'd trade Irving for Lenard. Love Irving, but he is the leak link on D. Adding a defensive player of the year plus Haywood next year would be crazy good.
Mine biggest concern is I'm not 100% sold on Rozier yet. He played pretty well in game 3, but has to show me he can play consistently well on the road. So far his numbers have been quite different home vs away. You know you can count on Irving to step up on the road, which is something that separates good from great players, IMO.
The idea that Rozier only plays well at home doesn't hold up to long term scrutiny. His career and 2017-18 splits show only a very slight better performance at home than away. In the 2017 playoffs 3 of his best 5 games were on the road. In these playoffs, just about everyone played worse on the road than at home. That isn't a Rozier thing this year its a Celtic thing. Also, of the 4 games the Celtics have played on the road in these playoffs, Rozier has played fairly well in two and been bad in two.
I didn't realize this until it was pointed out in the Terry Rozier fans (left) thread. Good point!
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If it was guarantee that next season Rozier would continue to put up the same stats he has these playoffs, you could probably get a top 3 pick for him.
Unfortunately we don’t really know how good Rozier will be on a different team with full time starting duties.
Yea, I also think teams are starting to get wary of assuming continued recent performance in a new setting with guys who flourish under Stevens. I think the market for Rozier is going to a be a bit cooler than some seem to expect - if Phoenix gets involved there they'd probably be dangling the #16 pick in the draft and another asset, be it a young forward like Bender or a future first (the variation on that unprotected pick they have from Miami in the early 2020's is intriguing). Can't see them offering their own pick for Rozier and another asset (unless the Lakers pick jumps up to like 3 and Ainge is in love with the guy at the top of the board).
With Rozier I'm very scared that there's going to be a Dennis Schroder-like element on his next contract, where he looks great in a defined role on his rookie deal, but you hand him $80 million to be the lead guard elsewhere and all the sudden you're looking at him and going "and the contract doesn't expire until when?"
Don't get me wrong, I like him and think he's been great for Boston - saved the season, really - but I don't think lottery teams are going to be tripping over themselves offering up their picks for the right to extend Terry.
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I don't think rozier can get a high lotto pick unless he's part of a larger trade. I think he's worth about 15th pick by himself.
too low...the guy was already a 16th pick himself on his own draft class and in a redraft now of 2015, Terry is going at least top 6 the way he is playing out of his mind.
rozier is an expiring contract. You realize that right
Rozier's contract status isn't really a factor, at least not in a significant manner. He has one more year on his rookie deal and then will be a RFA, giving any team that trades for him right of first refusal. This is far different from trading for a veteran who would be a UFA.
The issue is, rarely do teams give up lottery picks for players who probably aren't even top 10 at their position.
I dunno. Look at the Clips, picking 11 and 12. Suppose they decide they want a PG. Who can they get at 11, and what are the odds that player is better than Rozier? I think everything depends on who you think TR is. Is he playoff Terry, getting a very efficient 20 ppg (TS% above 60), 6-7 assists on very low turnovers, 5 rpg, and solid defense, all against motivated playoff competition? Or is he the guy who was much less efficient before the playoffs, making more than his share of bad basketball plays.
If you believe playoff Terry is for real, that could be your guy even for a lotto pick. The other parts of this, that are harder to assess, involve where the team is in its development and salary structure. To get a high pick you need a team that wants to start getting better fairly soon and doesn't mind spending to keep him a year from now. They'd be spending decent money on a player who is good but doesn't project as a true franchise player. That involves a lot of variables. I kind of wish Orlando was few picks worse in the draft - say, 8th - because for them it might make sense.
This is basically where I think Danny comes in at the right moment and capitalizes on Roziers rapidly inflating value. It's not like he had one or two good games. He has completely replaced 95% of what Kyrie was doing for the offensive, and the other 5% is playing better defense at a trade off for Kyries elevated passing game. And this is against playoff competition. Teams want to see a young guy do this kind of damage against the elite teams, more than regular season games against inferior competition.
Our money is going to be tied up in Kyrie as the starter, and I imagine they will look to extend his contract. Rozier is playing far beyond a 6th man role, and it doesn't make sense to pay this guy starter level money a year from now, when we also have Brown and Tatum to have to save money for down the road.
I do agree that if LAC comes knocking offering #12, that DA should absolutely consider the deal, from the cost-controlled contract perspective. If he also thinks he can move up from #12, in to the 5-8 range to get a guy like Bamba or Wendell Carter.....or who knows, maybe one of them slides....this would be the kind of draft night trade to expect.
If it's for Kawhi.....I think a trade like Rozier, Smart sign and trade, LAL/SAC pick, Memphis pick, Clippers 1st would be a really tough deal for the Spurs to walk away from. That's 5 solid rebuilding chips, if they think the Kawhi situation is totally FUBAR. I would consider swapping Jaylen in to this trade by taking a couple of the draft picks off the table (LAL and one of the MEM/LAC).....
so Rozier, Smart, Jaylen, Memphis 1st for Kawhi
Kyrie/Larkin
Kawhi/Nader
Hayward/Morris/Semi/Yabu
Tatum/Theis/Semi/Yabu
Horford
Obviously we would need to figure out Baynes/Monroe or replacing them with a couple bigs, and then drafting another rotational PG with our 2018 1st.
I'm sure some of you think that I am way overvaluing Rozier, and way undervaluing Kawhi, but between his injury/contract situation, I believe he can be had at 80 cents on the dollar for probably the only time in his career. If that means offering up guys we will lose to cap attrition (Rozier/Smart) and sacrificing Jaylen, it should be considered. I believe that is the level of conversation Roziers play has done for the Celtics off-season though.
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If it was guarantee that next season Rozier would continue to put up the same stats he has these playoffs, you could probably get a top 3 pick for him.
Unfortunately we don’t really know how good Rozier will be on a different team with full time starting duties.
Yea, I also think teams are starting to get wary of assuming continued recent performance in a new setting with guys who flourish under Stevens. I think the market for Rozier is going to a be a bit cooler than some seem to expect - if Phoenix gets involved there they'd probably be dangling the #16 pick in the draft and another asset, be it a young forward like Bender or a future first (the variation on that unprotected pick they have from Miami in the early 2020's is intriguing). Can't see them offering their own pick for Rozier and another asset (unless the Lakers pick jumps up to like 3 and Ainge is in love with the guy at the top of the board).
With Rozier I'm very scared that there's going to be a Dennis Schroder-like element on his next contract, where he looks great in a defined role on his rookie deal, but you hand him $80 million to be the lead guard elsewhere and all the sudden you're looking at him and going "and the contract doesn't expire until when?"
Don't get me wrong, I like him and think he's been great for Boston - saved the season, really - but I don't think lottery teams are going to be tripping over themselves offering up their picks for the right to extend Terry.
TP! Couldn't have said it better myself. Terry's value to the Celtics this season is higher than it would be for most other teams. It's not a simple plug and play. As I mentioned earlier, the value of rookie contracts is at an all-time high throughout the league.
Terry's value to the rest of the league is probably a mid-late lottery pick for 2018 + a veteran rotation player or raw prospect. Ainge might be able to squeeze multiple first round picks if they are for 2019 and beyond. I think some people are underestimating how protective GM's will be over their picks for the upcoming draft.
The health of Kyrie definitely makes things even more difficult for Ainge. Terry is the ultimate insurance policy for next season. Personally I would be okay with going all in with the current roster even if it means that we could lose Terry as an RFA in 2019. Ainge has enough assets to make the risk worth it.