CelticsStrong
Around the League => The Draft => Topic started by: Eddie20 on April 21, 2018, 11:22:47 AM
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With so many potential 1st rd picks next year, perhaps some members will enjoy this. It's interesting that they project us to have the 2nd best record in the league next year, behind only Golden State, while at the same time, they don't project the Memphis pick (top 8 protected) conveying. Also interesting is the last paragraph, which I bolded, that would make this draft a lot better than it's currently projected to be.
Over the past month, we attended practices, scrimmages and official games featuring the top rising freshmen at the McDonald's All American, Jordan Brand Classic and Nike Hoop Summit events. Starting this weekend, our focus will shift to the 2020 NBA draft and beyond, as we attend the NCAA's first live period of recruiting. This manifests itself with the opening weekend of AAU and the Nike EYBL, Under Armour Association and Adidas Gauntlet sessions in Dallas.
Before that, it's time to update our 2019 mock draft, reflecting everything we learned over the past month, including which players have made themselves eligible for the 2018 NBA draft.
Some players will likely return to school and be reinserted back into the 2019 mock, but for now, we're focused on who is likely to stay. A handful of players who are currently testing the waters but are not projected among the top 50 prospects in our latest Top 100 have also been included in our 2019 mock. We will update as necessary.
The theme of 2019 -- as with most draft classes lately -- is extreme youth. The top 10 projected picks are currently teenagers, with only one -- Daniel Gafford, who surprisingly passed up being a likely top-20 pick in 2018 -- already enrolled in college. Young players, deservedly or not, get the benefit of the doubt in projections of this nature, but they will need to back it up in college, or they will see their stock crash quickly should they not produce as freshmen.
The 2019 crop is considered to be fairly shallow at the moment, with many NBA teams privately expressing frustration about the lack of elite prospects that have emerged, particularly from the graduating high school senior class. While likely more serious of a concern in this instance than in the past, this is not an uncommon refrain at this stage. After all, new prospects emerge suddenly every year seemingly out of the blue, while others improve drastically, which will add much-needed star power and depth to a group that is currently lacking in both departments.
For example, no one was talking about Donovan Mitchell, Luke Kennard, John Collins, Justin Patton or D.J. Wilson in April of 2016, but they all emerged over the course of the next year and became top-20 draft picks in 2017, with Mitchell now a strong contender for Rookie of the Year.
Similar things can be said about Trae Young, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Robert Williams, Zhaire Smith and to a lesser extent Mikal Bridges this year. All were unheralded to varying degrees coming out of high school and have emerged as likely top-20 draft picks in 2018. Sometimes patience is required with young players, who tend to develop at vastly different paces, even into their mid-20s, as we see with All-Stars such as Stephen Curry, Goran Dragic, Kyle Lowry, Draymond Green, Jimmy Butler, Marc Gasol, DeAndre Jordan, Paul Millsap, Isaiah Thomas and countless others.
The supposed weakness of the 2018 high school class certainly opens up the door for sophomores, juniors and seniors to emerge as top-20 draft picks in 2019, in not all that dissimilar a fashion to what we saw in the 2016 draft, in which 11 of the top 21 picks were neither freshmen nor teenagers.
Note that a number of elite high school juniors -- Jalen Lecque, A.J. Lawson, Ashton Hagans, Tyrese Maxey, Cole Anthony, Josh Green, Bryan Antoine, Scottie Lewis, Precious Achiuwa, Charles Bassey and Chol Marial -- are all technically eligible for the 2019 draft from an age standpoint, as they were born in 2000 or earlier. They will also have to graduate from high school sometime before the 2018-19 NBA regular season starts, though, in order to fill that requirement of the NBA age limit, something that could very well happen in some instances. Lecque, Lawson, Hagans and Maxey are all reportedly eyeing reclassifying to the 2018 high school class already, while others (like Marvin Bagley III last year) may be plotting to do the same.
2019 NBA Mock Draft
TEAM PLAYER YEAR/LEAGUE TEAM HEIGHT POS. AGE
1. CHA R.J. Barrett HS Sr. Duke 6'7" SG 17.8
2. BOS (via SAC) Nassir Little HS Sr. North Carolina 6'6" SF 18.1
3. ATL Cam Reddish HS Sr. Duke 6'9" SF 18.6
4. MEM Sekou Doumbouya Int. Poitiers (France) 6'9" SF/PF 17.3
5. ORL Romeo Langford HS Sr. Undecided 6'6" SG 18.4
6. PHX Quentin Grimes HS Sr. Kansas 6'5" SG 17.9
7. NYK Zion Williamson HS Sr. Duke 6'6" PF 17.7
8. BKN Daniel Gafford Fr. Arkansas 6'11" C 19.5
9. DAL Darius Garland HS Sr. Vanderbilt 6'0" PG 18.2
10. DET Bol Bol HS Sr. Oregon 7'2" C 18.4
11. CHI De'Andre Hunter Fr. Virginia 6'8" SF/PF 20.3
12. NOP Keldon Johnson HS Sr. Kentucky 6'6" SG 18.5
13. MIA Rui Hachimura So. Gonzaga 6'8" PF 20.1
14. ATL (via CLE) Luka Samanic Int. Barcelona 2 (Spain) 6'11" PF 18.2
15. PHX (via MIL) Louis King HS Sr. Oregon 6'7" SF/PF 19.0
16. BOS (via LAC) Herb Jones Fr. Alabama 6'7" SF 19.5
17. WAS Jalen Smith HS Sr. Maryland 6'10" PF 18.0
18. OKC PJ Washington Fr. Kentucky 6'8" PF 19.6
19. LAL Carsen Edwards So. Purdue 6'0" PG 20.1
20. IND Kevin Huerter So. Maryland 6'6" SG 19.6
21. MIN Josh Okogie So. Georgia Tech 6'4" SG 19.6
22. POR Jarrett Culver Fr. Texas Tech 6'5" SG 19.1
23. DEN Darius Bazley HS Sr. G League 6'9" PF 17.8
24. SAS Nickeil Alexander-Walker Fr. Virginia Tech 6'5" PG/SG 19.6
25. UTA Marko Simonovic Int. Siena (Italy) 7'0" PF/C 18.5
26. TOR Aric Holman Jr. Mississippi St. 6'10" PF 20.7
27. PHI Isaac Bonga Int. Frankfurt (Germany) 6'9" SF 18.4
28. HOU Charles Matthews So. Michigan 6'6" SF 21.4
29. BOS Kris Wilkes Fr. UCLA 6'7" SF/PF 19.5
30. GSW Shamorie Ponds So. St. John's 6'1" PG 19.8
31. CHA Terence Davis Jr. Mississippi 6'4" SG 20.9
32. PHI (via SAC) Lindell Wigginton Fr. Iowa St 6'2" PG 20.0
33. ATL Jarred Vanderbilt Fr. Kentucky 6'8" SF 19.0
34. MEM Oshae Brissett Fr. Syracuse 6'9" PF 19.8
35. ORL Isaiah Roby So. Nebraska 6'8" SF/PF 20.2
36. PHX Jalen McDaniels Fr. San Diego St 6'9" PF 20.2
37. BKN (via NYK) Admiral Schofield Jr. Tennessee 6'5" SF/PF 21.0
38. ORL (via BKN) Kerwin Roach II Jr. Texas 6'3" PG/SG 21.4
39. DAL Brandon Randolph Fr. Arizona 6'6" SG 20.6
40. DET John Petty Fr. Alabama 6'5" SG 19.3
41. LAL (via CHI) Sagaba Konate So. West Virginia 6'8" C 20.5
42. NOP Xavier Sneed So. Kansas St 6'5" SG 20.3
43. MIN (via MIA) Goga Bitadze Int. Mega Bemax (Serbia) 6'11" C 18.7
44. SAC (via CLE) Killian Tillie So. Gonzaga 6'10" PF/C 19.9
45. SAC (via MIL) James Palmer Jr. Nebraska 6'6" SF 21.7
46. LAC Quinton Rose So. Temple 6'8" SG 20.2
47. DEN (via WAS) Markis McDuffie Jr. Wichita St 6'8" SF 20.6
48. OKC Udoka Azubuike So. Kansas 6'11" C 18.5
49. POR (via LAL) Matisse Thybulle Jr. Washington 6'5" SG 21.1
50. IND Shakur Juiston Jr. UNLV 6'7" PF 21.0
51. ATL (via MIN) Kyle Alexander Jr. Tennessee 6'11" C 21.4
52. LAC (via POR) Cameron Johnson Jr. North Carolina 6'7" SF 22.1
53. DEN D'Marcus Simonds So. Georgia St 6'3" PG/SG 20.4
54. SAS Austin Wiley So. Auburn 6'11" C 19.2
55. UTA Abdoulaye N'doye Int. Cholet (France) 6'7" PG 20.1
56. TOR David Okeke Int. PMS Torino (Italy) 6'9" PF 19.5
57. PHI John Konchar Jr. IPFW 6'6" SG 22.1
58. NYK (via HOU) Milik Yarbrough Jr. Illinois St 6'6" SG/SF 22.4
59. MEM (via BOS) Aleksa Radanov Int. Red Star (Serbia) 6'8" SG 20.2
60. DAL (via GSW) Ethan Happ Jr. Wisconsin 6'10" PF/C 21.9
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Thanks for posting this! I like how opinions differ with Bol Bol (#10) and Zion Williamson (#7), two names which have popped up on this forum this past season as SAC pick candidates.
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unfortunately i expect the knicks to tank below Sac
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I can't imagine a better scenario for the Cs. The SAC pick is protected #1 and it is projected #2 and the LAC pick is lottery protected and it is projected just outside the lottery. I know we don't get the MEM pick in this scenario, but I would personally rather push it off for a year or two; not only because we have so many picks in 2019, but because we would have a better chance of it landing higher (maybe considerably).
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Sac pick probably around 5 and I can’t imagine Memphis not conveying with Gasol and Conley back. I was worried that it would be too LOW at like 18th.
I’m hoping that the sac pick is traded for a superstar like we flipped BRK18
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I can’t imagine Memphis not conveying with Gasol and Conley back. I was worried that it would be too LOW at like 18th.
I doubt that. This would mean that they would have to make the playoffs and have a better than record than at least 1 of the teams that made the playoffs this year (SA, Minnesota, OKC, etc.) and Denver (who nearly made it). That's a tough proposition for a team that looks destined to lose Evans and Green. As for Conley, I really question if we ever see prime Conley again. He'll be 31 at the start of the year and achilles injuries are a huge deal, especially for a 6'1" player who relied a lot on his quickness and first step.
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Bol Bol falling to 10 is really interesting. If that Memphis pick conveys and we can snag Bol that'd be awesome
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Can you imagine all of us on draft day and there are only two teams left and we are one of them? 2nd and we celebrate and first, and we are devastated. Exciting and Frightening at the same time.
The HS school card is great for us if we can land a top 5 pick though. I would imagine Danny is already scouting juniors from this past year on tape.
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I know Givony is just putting the players in the order he thinks they are based on ability but this order of teams has Boston adding 3 more SFs. Lol. The whole team will be SFs
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Bol Bol falling to 10 is really interesting. If that Memphis pick conveys and we can snag Bol that'd be awesome
our bench is going to be loaded if that pick conveys, if sactown pick is ours and high, and if we also hit a rotation backup with our own 2018 or 2019 pick
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The team projections are more interesting than the prospects.
This shows 10 Western conference teams making the playoffs. Is he assuming the owners agree to put the 16 best teams regardless of conference in the playoffs? That seems very unlikely.
Charlotte with the worst record. Must be assuming that Kemba gets traded for garbage. Even then worst record seems unlikely.
Kings at #2. Clearly no adjustment at all for the Kings not having their pick and thus having no reason to tank.
Memphis at #4. Seems unlikely with Conley coming back. Is he projecting a Gasol trade?
Knicks at #7. Okay that seems spot on.
NOP at #12. 10 west teams making the playoffs and NOP isn't one of them. That seems extremely unlikely now that Davis seems to be accepting playing at center more.
Atl getting the Cavs pick at #14. Must be projecting Lebron leaving.
LAC at #16. Hard to see them making the playoffs over NOP.
LAL at #19. Must not be projecting Lebron to go to them since I'd expect a bigger jump if he did.
Celtics and Sixers as the 2 best East teams. Confirms Lebron must be leaving the Cavs and going West.
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I know Givony is just putting the players in the order he thinks they are based on ability but this order of teams has Boston adding 3 more SFs. Lol. The whole team will be SFs
Yeah, that was the first thing I noticed. I understand this far out he's just projecting BPA, but I find it hard to believe the Celtics would spend another top pick on a SF, let alone 3 picks in the 1st round on SF's.
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With the state of a few teams DA may turn next year's firsts into another big time player. Can't see the tram using so many picks
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The team projections are more interesting than the prospects.
Confirms Lebron must be leaving the Cavs and going West.
It's just somewhat informed speculation. It doesn't confirm anything.
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I know this must be more of a ranking of players but I don’t see us drafting three small forwards when we already have like 7 players than can play SF.
Sac better not win the lottery next year.
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I can’t imagine Memphis not conveying with Gasol and Conley back. I was worried that it would be too LOW at like 18th.
I doubt that. This would mean that they would have to make the playoffs and have a better than record than at least 1 of the teams that made the playoffs this year (SA, Minnesota, OKC, etc.) and Denver (who nearly made it). That's a tough proposition for a team that looks destined to lose Evans and Green. As for Conley, I really question if we ever see prime Conley again. He'll be 31 at the start of the year and achilles injuries are a huge deal, especially for a 6'1" player who relied a lot on his quickness and first step.
Ok 16th. Whatever. Point is they’re going to be better than 22nd best (Nets).
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The best case scenario for the Memphis pick is that Memphis falls on its face again early next season, right? And then they decide they should just keep the tank rolling and don't hit on anyone that can spring them back into respectability by 2021. Then the Celtics, the year after hoisting their 2nd straight championship trophy, get to add a top pick to a team in its prime.
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I can’t imagine Memphis not conveying with Gasol and Conley back. I was worried that it would be too LOW at like 18th.
I doubt that. This would mean that they would have to make the playoffs and have a better than record than at least 1 of the teams that made the playoffs this year (SA, Minnesota, OKC, etc.) and Denver (who nearly made it). That's a tough proposition for a team that looks destined to lose Evans and Green. As for Conley, I really question if we ever see prime Conley again. He'll be 31 at the start of the year and achilles injuries are a huge deal, especially for a 6'1" player who relied a lot on his quickness and first step.
Ok 16th. Whatever. Point is they’re going to be better than 22nd best (Nets).
Gasol played in 73 games and they still were awful. So this would mean that Conley would be the main difference in a 25 game swing, as the Grizzlies finished with 22 wins, while Portland, OKC, Utah, NO, SA, Minnesota, and Den had 46-48 wins.
At the very best, and assuming they're healthy, I see them at a Lakers 17-18 level (35 wins - 10th pick). This also doesn't account for the likely Evans loss. That will have to be addressed too.
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I can’t imagine Memphis not conveying with Gasol and Conley back. I was worried that it would be too LOW at like 18th.
I doubt that. This would mean that they would have to make the playoffs and have a better than record than at least 1 of the teams that made the playoffs this year (SA, Minnesota, OKC, etc.) and Denver (who nearly made it). That's a tough proposition for a team that looks destined to lose Evans and Green. As for Conley, I really question if we ever see prime Conley again. He'll be 31 at the start of the year and achilles injuries are a huge deal, especially for a 6'1" player who relied a lot on his quickness and first step.
Ok 16th. Whatever. Point is they’re going to be better than 22nd best (Nets).
Gasol played in 73 games and they still were awful. So this would mean that Conley would be the main difference in a 25 game swing, as the Grizzlies finished with 22 wins, while Portland, OKC, Utah, NO, SA, Minnesota, and Den had 46-48 wins.
At the very best, and assuming they're healthy, I see them at a Lakers 17-18 level (35 wins - 10th pick). This also doesn't account for the likely Evans loss. That will have to be addressed too.
What if the Grizzlies do well in the lottery and end up with a Doncic caliber player? Integrating that with Conleys return has the potential to get into that high 30s tier of wins.
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I can’t imagine Memphis not conveying with Gasol and Conley back. I was worried that it would be too LOW at like 18th.
I doubt that. This would mean that they would have to make the playoffs and have a better than record than at least 1 of the teams that made the playoffs this year (SA, Minnesota, OKC, etc.) and Denver (who nearly made it). That's a tough proposition for a team that looks destined to lose Evans and Green. As for Conley, I really question if we ever see prime Conley again. He'll be 31 at the start of the year and achilles injuries are a huge deal, especially for a 6'1" player who relied a lot on his quickness and first step.
Ok 16th. Whatever. Point is they’re going to be better than 22nd best (Nets).
Gasol played in 73 games and they still were awful. So this would mean that Conley would be the main difference in a 25 game swing, as the Grizzlies finished with 22 wins, while Portland, OKC, Utah, NO, SA, Minnesota, and Den had 46-48 wins.
At the very best, and assuming they're healthy, I see them at a Lakers 17-18 level (35 wins - 10th pick). This also doesn't account for the likely Evans loss. That will have to be addressed too.
Memphis was also blatantly tanking, I'm not sure they are as bad as their record suggested this season.
I could see with a healthy Conley, a fully engaged Gasol, and some other minor additions they could be right back to the 40-45 win vicinity and a fringe playoff team.
Depending on a healthy Conley at this point seems like long odds though, so there's that. And Gasol is starting to get some mileage on him as well, and could see a drop off at any time. It's tough to predict what will happen there.
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This video says the Ainge is taking him.
https://youtu.be/qCHZCHTTiaU
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1) @Eddie, thank you for posting this. TP. I agree with you, that last paragraph could make things interesting.
2) If the BPA is a small forward, then Danny will draft a small forward.
3) I don't care if Conley is back, I think that the Memphis pick (protected 1-8) stays in Memphis. They look awful.
4) If picks do convey next year, it could be very interesting. Nothing I've read before today indicates that next year will be a deep draft, but if a bunch of HS players are able to declare, maybe we get lucky. We have Sacramento's pick (highly likely), our pick, but could also have Memphis (as high as #9) and the Clippers' (as high as #15). Sadly, this isn't the NFL, where we could trade all of those picks for a top-3, but it does give us a number of shots.
Mike
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Bol Bol falling to 10 is really interesting. If that Memphis pick conveys and we can snag Bol that'd be awesome
our bench is going to be loaded if that pick conveys, if sactown pick is ours and high, and if we also hit a rotation backup with our own 2018 or 2019 pick
I am incredibly excited. This team will be good for years (hopefully)