CelticsStrong

Around the League => Transaction Ideas and Rumors => Topic started by: CFAN38 on March 20, 2018, 02:40:53 PM

Title: Could DA emulate the Spurs with a Rozier deal?
Post by: CFAN38 on March 20, 2018, 02:40:53 PM
At the 2011 draft the Spurs traded their then 24 year old backup PG fresh off of averaging 28mpg and nearly 12pts 2.5 ast and 2.5 rb to the pacers for the 15th pick Kawhi Leonard.

 The Cs currently have Rozier at 24 years old averaging 25mpg 11pts 2.7 ast and 4.5rb on a team where he may still be the 3rd PG if Smart is resigned. Now obviously a lot goes out the window if the plan isn't to retain Smart but I personally think he and the Cs come to contract terms.

So the question is how unlikely would it be for DA to pull off a draft day deal that ships Terry to a team that can use a starting PG for a rookie DA covets.

Teams in need of a PG and 1st rd picks higher then 20 (as of 3/20)

Suns  1,15,16
Magic  4
clippers 12,14
nuggets 13 (have gaurds but really lack a PG)
76ers 11,18 (god knows how they feel about Fultz long term)

Players I could see DA targeting in a trade ( most would not be available but want to point out players who could fit the current rosters need. I view the need being a young bigman to spell Al)

First group likely require too high of a trade up or an LAL miracle (range picks 1-10)
Ayton
Jackson Jr
Bamba
Carter

Second Group should range from (11-20)
Williams
M Robinson
J Porter

Obviously anyone in group one would be a huge acquisition and potential future allstar. The 2nd group has more questions but some real potential. Robinson is a high potential big with great measurable who is very raw but in theory could be as good as any player in this draft. Williams has Defensive player of the year type potential with his elite athletic ability. Porter is a bit of a sleeper who is more of a long term project who may be the most capable of mimicking Al's style of play. 
Title: Re: Could DA emulate the Spurs with a Rozier deal?
Post by: chilidawg on March 20, 2018, 02:45:18 PM
Odds of a 15th pick being as good as Rozier aren't that good.  Odds of the 15th pick being as good as Leonard are exceptionally slim.  And you're not getting a top 5 lottery pick for Rozier. 

I really don't get what you're thinking here.
Title: Re: Could DA emulate the Spurs with a Rozier deal?
Post by: Surferdad on March 20, 2018, 02:51:39 PM
Keep Rozier, re-sign Monroe and Baynes, pay the lux tax.
Title: Re: Could DA emulate the Spurs with a Rozier deal?
Post by: Ilikesports17 on March 20, 2018, 03:09:18 PM
I don't think you are getting much for a year of Terry Rozier.
Title: Re: Could DA emulate the Spurs with a Rozier deal?
Post by: coffee425 on March 20, 2018, 03:31:04 PM
Odds of a 15th pick being as good as Rozier aren't that good.  Odds of the 15th pick being as good as Leonard are exceptionally slim.  And you're not getting a top 5 lottery pick for Rozier. 

I really don't get what you're thinking here.

Odds that he's the 8th man on a good, not great team? I think that's the expectation for a 15th pick.
Title: Re: Could DA emulate the Spurs with a Rozier deal?
Post by: DefenseWinsChamps on March 20, 2018, 03:31:10 PM
The problem in this scenario is that no one thought Leonard would be as good as he has become. So any players who are considered to be high upside players today can't be considered for this exercise.

Leonard's comp was Mbouh a Moute or Gerald Wallace on nbadraft.net (not a great site, but we'll go with this for now). His strengths were evident, but his weaknesses were that he didn't have a move with which to score consistently, he didn't have a consistent jumpshot, and he gambled on defense.

For this exercise, the guys I have an eye on are Troy Brown, Bonga, or  Baites-Diop. For a different position, Porter or Wiley might be guys to consider.

Fun exercise. Good thoughts. It'd be sweet to get a big to complete the young core.
Title: Re: Could DA emulate the Spurs with a Rozier deal?
Post by: Monkhouse on March 20, 2018, 03:51:47 PM
The problem in this scenario is that no one thought Leonard would be as good as he has become. So any players who are considered to be high upside players today can't be considered for this exercise.

Leonard's comp was Mbouh a Moute or Gerald Wallace on nbadraft.net (not a great site, but we'll go with this for now). His strengths were evident, but his weaknesses were that he didn't have a move with which to score consistently, he didn't have a consistent jumpshot, and he gambled on defense.

For this exercise, the guys I have an eye on are Troy Brown, Bonga, or  Baites-Diop. For a different position, Porter or Wiley might be guys to consider.

Fun exercise. Good thoughts. It'd be sweet to get a big to complete the young core.

That is true. Coming out of college, there were criticisms that Leonard couldn't shoot, couldn't pass, and couldn't seem to be effective enough offensively to carry the offensive load, or even to be as good as he is today. Perhaps, some of that should be attributed to the tutelage of Parker, Duncan, and Ginobli along with Pop as the HC of course. But generally at the time, George Hill was Pop's favorite point guard, and he had to ultimately decide between Parker or Hill.
Title: Re: Could DA emulate the Spurs with a Rozier deal?
Post by: Eddie20 on March 20, 2018, 03:55:47 PM
I like the idea, but don't think we should necessarily be concentrating on bigs. In fact, I think Mikal Bridges would be the perfect Stevens' system player. 6'7" 3 and D player, who's extremely athletic, and has a huge 7 foot wingspan. Tatum is going to be playing a lot of 4 next season, probably starting, and adding another versatile wing would be unreal.
Title: Re: Could DA emulate the Spurs with a Rozier deal?
Post by: Monkhouse on March 20, 2018, 04:04:35 PM
I like the idea, but don't think we should necessarily be concentrating on bigs. In fact, I think Mikal Bridges would be the perfect Stevens' system player. 6'7" 3 and D player, who's extremely athletic, and has a huge 7 foot wingspan. Tatum is going to be playing a lot of 4 next season, probably starting, and adding another versatile wing would be unreal.

TP to you Eddie. Mikal Bridges is actually one of my binkie's, and I think he's gonna be really vital to today's modern NBA. His wingspan, and his defensive IQ is really what led Villanova to doing so well to the tune of 32-4 W/L.

While his offensive upside isn't anything spectacular, I would love to combine picks to try to get a chance to draft him. He is the perfect role player to put in Steven's system.
Title: Re: Could DA emulate the Spurs with a Rozier deal?
Post by: jambr380 on March 20, 2018, 04:07:22 PM
Odds of a 15th pick being as good as Rozier aren't that good.  Odds of the 15th pick being as good as Leonard are exceptionally slim.  And you're not getting a top 5 lottery pick for Rozier. 

I really don't get what you're thinking here.

But the odds that the #15 pick will be paid considerably less than Rozier over the next 4 years are extremely high. If the plan is to re-sign Smart (and it hopefully is), then Rozier will lose a number of his minutes to Hayward anyway.

I am totally a Rozier fan and if he wanted to stick it out with the Cs for a bargain deal, then I am all for it. But, I just don't see how the salary is going to work by paying Smart and Rozier along with max contracts for just about everybody else. It's frightening to think about.

And even if Smart signs somewhere else, it still might be a good idea to trade Rozier if it looks like he is going to get PAID. I don't think anybody would be all that psyched by continuing to lose all of our productive 1st round picks (yes, Sully and KO were productive here) year after year for nothing.
Title: Re: Could DA emulate the Spurs with a Rozier deal?
Post by: chilidawg on March 20, 2018, 04:22:39 PM
Odds of a 15th pick being as good as Rozier aren't that good.  Odds of the 15th pick being as good as Leonard are exceptionally slim.  And you're not getting a top 5 lottery pick for Rozier. 

I really don't get what you're thinking here.

Odds that he's the 8th man on a good, not great team? I think that's the expectation for a 15th pick.

Justin Jackson, Juan Hernangomez, Kelly Oubre, Adrien Payne, and Giannis were the last 5 15th picks.  You've got 3 guys that probably won't amount to much, Oubre who seems like he might have similar value to Rozier, and a huge outlier in Giannis.
Title: Re: Could DA emulate the Spurs with a Rozier deal?
Post by: chilidawg on March 20, 2018, 04:24:48 PM
Odds of a 15th pick being as good as Rozier aren't that good.  Odds of the 15th pick being as good as Leonard are exceptionally slim.  And you're not getting a top 5 lottery pick for Rozier. 

I really don't get what you're thinking here.

But the odds that the #15 pick will be paid considerably less than Rozier over the next 4 years are extremely high. If the plan is to re-sign Smart (and it hopefully is), then Rozier will lose a number of his minutes to Hayward anyway.

I am totally a Rozier fan and if he wanted to stick it out with the Cs for a bargain deal, then I am all for it. But, I just don't see how the salary is going to work by paying Smart and Rozier along with max contracts for just about everybody else. It's frightening to think about.

And even if Smart signs somewhere else, it still might be a good idea to trade Rozier if it looks like he is going to get PAID. I don't think anybody would be all that psyched by continuing to lose all of our productive 1st round picks (yes, Sully and KO were productive here) year after year for nothing.

You're right that a draft pick would cost less, but they also are not likely to produce much for a few years.  Rozier is a great example of this.  He was cheap but useless for a couple years, was probably worth his salary last year, and is out performing it this year.  Not an unusual pattern for a draft pick.
Title: Re: Could DA emulate the Spurs with a Rozier deal?
Post by: footey on March 20, 2018, 04:25:45 PM
Hang onto Rozier in case Irving knee deteriorates. May be our future starting PG.
Title: Re: Could DA emulate the Spurs with a Rozier deal?
Post by: CFAN38 on March 20, 2018, 04:48:16 PM
to answer many of the responses I agree it isn't very likely that Rozier is moved especially for a rookie.

However I can see a situation where it could happen.

Lets say DA gets a workout with M Robinson and is impressed. Mind you he is super athletic 7'1 with a 7'4 wing span and was the ranked as the #9 player in his draft class.

Now the Suns are currently projected to be drafting 1, 15 and 16 in the 1st round.

Lets say they draft Ayton #1 then at 15 Young, Sexton and SGA are all off the board. They can either try trading up those two picks to make sure they draft their PG or maybe DA offers Rozier and #27 for #15. That would allow the Suns to get Rozier and draft players at 16 and 27.

Not likely but plausible

Title: Re: Could DA emulate the Spurs with a Rozier deal?
Post by: Monkhouse on March 20, 2018, 04:53:07 PM
to answer many of the responses I agree it isn't very likely that Rozier is moved especially for a rookie.

However I can see a situation where it could happen.

Lets say DA gets a workout with M Robinson and is impressed. Mind you he is super athletic 7'1 with a 7'4 wing span and was the ranked as the #9 player in his draft class.

Now the Suns are currently projected to be drafting 1, 15 and 16 in the 1st round.

Lets say they draft Ayton #1 then at 15 Young, Sexton and SGA are all off the board. They can either try trading up those two picks to make sure they draft their PG or maybe DA offers Rozier and #27 for #15. That would allow the Suns to get Rozier and draft players at 16 and 27.

Not likely but plausible

I am going to come out and tell you straight up that I think Mitchell Robinson is gonna be one of the biggest disappointments of this draft.

Awkward frame with high hips, and just lacks overall fundamentals that most big men his age should at least know how to use. He also gets WAY too lost defensively, not to mention he seems to be unable to box out too well for a man of his size. His motor and his hustle just have nothing but question marks.

But hey, this entire thread is all hypothetically plausible, so who knows what might happen. I don't see Ainge doing that though. I can see Ainge being in love with Rozier too much, and unless he gets a firm confirmation that he won't re-sign, I can see Rozay staying with us for a while.
Title: Re: Could DA emulate the Spurs with a Rozier deal?
Post by: Smartacus on March 20, 2018, 04:53:24 PM
I like the idea, but don't think we should necessarily be concentrating on bigs. In fact, I think Mikal Bridges would be the perfect Stevens' system player. 6'7" 3 and D player, who's extremely athletic, and has a huge 7 foot wingspan. Tatum is going to be playing a lot of 4 next season, probably starting, and adding another versatile wing would be unreal.

TP to you Eddie. Mikal Bridges is actually one of my binkie's, and I think he's gonna be really vital to today's modern NBA. His wingspan, and his defensive IQ is really what led Villanova to doing so well to the tune of 32-4 W/L.

While his offensive upside isn't anything spectacular, I would love to combine picks to try to get a chance to draft him. He is the perfect role player to put in Steven's system.

Beat me to it! Count me aboard the Mikal Bridges bandwagon although I wouldn't doubt that the word is out on him. Could see him being the player that sneaks into the top 10 in spite of being lower on the mock drafts.

Reminds me of Khris Middleton with his length and shooting ability. Nabbing Khris Middleton at any pick after 7 would be a steal.
Title: Re: Could DA emulate the Spurs with a Rozier deal?
Post by: coffee425 on March 20, 2018, 05:25:09 PM
Odds of a 15th pick being as good as Rozier aren't that good.  Odds of the 15th pick being as good as Leonard are exceptionally slim.  And you're not getting a top 5 lottery pick for Rozier. 

I really don't get what you're thinking here.

Odds that he's the 8th man on a good, not great team? I think that's the expectation for a 15th pick.

Justin Jackson, Juan Hernangomez, Kelly Oubre, Adrien Payne, and Giannis were the last 5 15th picks.  You've got 3 guys that probably won't amount to much, Oubre who seems like he might have similar value to Rozier, and a huge outlier in Giannis.

A rookie and a second year player. Are we forgetting Terry's similar value during those first two years?
Title: Re: Could DA emulate the Spurs with a Rozier deal?
Post by: tstorey_97 on March 20, 2018, 06:10:50 PM
Perhaps it's best to sell high on Terry.

Who knows what a GM would be thinking at different positions in the draft for valuation.

I suggest that Ainge would rather have Rozier and his salary on board next year (maybe) as part of an important trade rather than getting another young player.

Ainge has some potential draft capital with Kings in 2019. Combine pick with Terry III, three Celtics dancers and cash considerations?

Anyway, I like Rozier's game, but, I just don't see him as a full time  NBA starter...do ther GM's agree?

Title: Re: Could DA emulate the Spurs with a Rozier deal?
Post by: footey on March 20, 2018, 07:05:54 PM
Rumors of Kyrie having serious knee problem and everyone wants to trade Rozier.

Crazy stupid.
Title: Re: Could DA emulate the Spurs with a Rozier deal?
Post by: td450 on March 20, 2018, 07:05:57 PM
I've personally never thought Rozier was that good, but I still think this board is undervaluing his value around the league. Everything is breaking his way, and he's going to have every opportunity to end up averaging 16 pts per game over the last 30 games of this year. He's athletic and plays defense, and he's creating some buzz.

Teams are looking for guys on the cusp, and he looks like one of those guys. We've got Hayward coming back, and there will be 32 less minutes to be had next year. I'd be in favor of trading him if we can get fair value.

I do think the top 7 this year's draft is the best chance to get a foundational big man for the foreseeable future. There are 5 really good true centers, and every one of them looks like they could be great players in different ways for our system. Porter and Doncic would be amazing too.

I would give up our 2019 Sac pick, Rozier, our other 1st this year, and almost any other non-core asset to get one of those picks.
Title: Re: Could DA emulate the Spurs with a Rozier deal?
Post by: CFAN38 on March 21, 2018, 09:25:43 AM
I like the idea, but don't think we should necessarily be concentrating on bigs. In fact, I think Mikal Bridges would be the perfect Stevens' system player. 6'7" 3 and D player, who's extremely athletic, and has a huge 7 foot wingspan. Tatum is going to be playing a lot of 4 next season, probably starting, and adding another versatile wing would be unreal.

TP to you Eddie. Mikal Bridges is actually one of my binkie's, and I think he's gonna be really vital to today's modern NBA. His wingspan, and his defensive IQ is really what led Villanova to doing so well to the tune of 32-4 W/L.

While his offensive upside isn't anything spectacular, I would love to combine picks to try to get a chance to draft him. He is the perfect role player to put in Steven's system.

Beat me to it! Count me aboard the Mikal Bridges bandwagon although I wouldn't doubt that the word is out on him. Could see him being the player that sneaks into the top 10 in spite of being lower on the mock drafts.

Reminds me of Khris Middleton with his length and shooting ability. Nabbing Khris Middleton at any pick after 7 would be a steal.

Not to help hijack my own post but for anyone who wants to trade up for Mikal Bridges I would suggest not moving up as high and targeting Bates-Diop

http://www.tankathon.com/players/compare?players=keita-bates-diop--mikal-bridges--jimmy-butler

He is not at Bridges' level as a shooter but still solid and has great size. I have seen it reported that he has around a 7'3 wingspan and looks to be at least his 6'7 listed height but likely taller. His length and rebounding ability makes him a prime candidate to play today's perimeter based PF role. 
Title: Re: Could DA emulate the Spurs with a Rozier deal?
Post by: CFAN38 on March 21, 2018, 09:46:40 AM
Rumors of Kyrie having serious knee problem and everyone wants to trade Rozier.

Crazy stupid.

Not saying I want to trade Rozier. The facts are that he is going to want a chance to start and if all goes well he will never have that opportunity in boston. Terry is likely seeing the peak of his minutes as a Celtics this season. I find it hard to belive DA just lets Smart walk as a RFA this summer. Assuming he is back and the roster doesn't have any major changes BS will have an interesting minutes crunch on his hands.

really rough look at a possible 9 man rotation next season. Granted BS has preferred to play deeper rotations but the primary minute distribution still hold roughly true.

PG Irving 32mpg      Smart 16mpg
SG Brown 30mpg     Smart 14mpg
SF Hayward 32mpg  Morris 5mpg  backup wing 11mpg
PF Tatum 32mpg      Morris 16mpg
C  Horford 30mpg    Theis 18mpg

The lack of minutes for Terry makes me question if a trade could be plausible.
Title: Re: Could DA emulate the Spurs with a Rozier deal?
Post by: footey on March 21, 2018, 10:37:20 AM
I've personally never thought Rozier was that good, but I still think this board is undervaluing his value around the league. Everything is breaking his way, and he's going to have every opportunity to end up averaging 16 pts per game over the last 30 games of this year. He's athletic and plays defense, and he's creating some buzz.

Teams are looking for guys on the cusp, and he looks like one of those guys. We've got Hayward coming back, and there will be 32 less minutes to be had next year. I'd be in favor of trading him if we can get fair value.

I do think the top 7 this year's draft is the best chance to get a foundational big man for the foreseeable future. There are 5 really good true centers, and every one of them looks like they could be great players in different ways for our system. Porter and Doncic would be amazing too.

I would give up our 2019 Sac pick, Rozier, our other 1st this year, and almost any other non-core asset to get one of those picks.

trading up to get a top draft pick without offering a high pick in the same draft (e.g., last year trade down from 1 to 3) almost never happen. Why? Because GM with the lotto pick has done extensive scouting, and is salivating over getting a guy NOW who can save his job.  There is no such satisfaction swapping for the SAC pick (and let's be honest, that is the major value in your proposed trade, not TR. Just like the Kyrie trade; it was the BKN pick that got it done, not IT).

I also have to re-emphasize, because others are for some reason ignoring this on this thread, the following: Kyrie will likely have to get surgery by season's end.  There is a legitimate risk that he won't be able to play at the beginning of next season. There is a risk that he may miss a good chunk of next reason. There is a (hopefully very low) risk that, gulp, he will never be the same.  Who's your starting PG in the meantime? Smart? Doncic?  No, it would be Terry Rozier. Danny Ainge is not even thinking of trading him right now, or during the off season. The only exception would be in a package to get AD. And as we all know, AD is not going anywhere. 
Title: Re: Could DA emulate the Spurs with a Rozier deal?
Post by: Moranis on April 05, 2018, 01:47:39 PM
Keep Rozier, re-sign Monroe and Baynes, pay the lux tax.
No. Avoid luxury tax at all costs.