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Around the League => Around the NBA => Topic started by: celticsclay on February 22, 2018, 02:50:58 PM

Title: Are the last 20 NBA games going to be truly horrific?
Post by: celticsclay on February 22, 2018, 02:50:58 PM
There is currently the biggest race to the bottom I can remember in the NBA. A loaded draft class coupled with 8 teams within 2 games of the worst record (and last year before lottery reform). What will we see these last 20 games?

How common is it for there to 8 teams this close to the worst record with 20 games left?
It seems really crazy.

To put this in perspective If you look at last season the team with the 4th worst record won 8 more games than the worst record. The 8th worst won 11 more. The year before it was 20 more!
The year before 15. This is going to get ugly. Curious if Silver takes actions against teams resting healthy veterans.
Title: Re: Are the last 20 NBA games going to be truly horrific?
Post by: nickagneta on February 22, 2018, 03:11:31 PM
There is currently the biggest race to the bottom I can remember in the NBA. A loaded draft class coupled with 8 teams within 2 games of the worst record (and last year before lottery reform). What will we see these last 20 games?

How common is it for there to 8 teams this close to the worst record with 20 games left?
It seems really crazy.

To put this in perspective If you look at last season the team with the 4th worst record won 8 more games than the worst record. The 8th worst won 11 more. The year before it was 20 more!
The year before 15. This is going to get ugly. Curious if Silver takes actions against teams resting healthy veterans.
Well, the Celtics play a bunch of games against those teams for the remainder of the season, so maybe its a good thing.
Title: Re: Are the last 20 NBA games going to be truly horrific?
Post by: celticsclay on February 22, 2018, 03:14:37 PM
There is currently the biggest race to the bottom I can remember in the NBA. A loaded draft class coupled with 8 teams within 2 games of the worst record (and last year before lottery reform). What will we see these last 20 games?

How common is it for there to 8 teams this close to the worst record with 20 games left?
It seems really crazy.

To put this in perspective If you look at last season the team with the 4th worst record won 8 more games than the worst record. The 8th worst won 11 more. The year before it was 20 more!
The year before 15. This is going to get ugly. Curious if Silver takes actions against teams resting healthy veterans.
Well, the Celtics play a bunch of games against those teams for the remainder of the season, so maybe its a good thing.

While it would be nice at some level to have some stress free easy wins (although i am not sure that will happen) every other contending team will play them too and it will just make for some bad basketball...
Title: Re: Are the last 20 NBA games going to be truly horrific?
Post by: Moranis on February 22, 2018, 03:19:10 PM
The worst record right now has 18 wins, which is a lot higher than years past at this point. 

I mean these are the final win totals for every team at or below 25 wins the last few seasons

2017 - 20, 24
2016 - 10, 17, 21, 23
2015 - 16, 17, 21, 25
2014 - 15, 19, 23, 25
2013 - 20, 24, 25
2012* - 8.69, 24.85 (extrapolated to a full season)
2011 - 17, 19, 22, 23, 24, 24
2010 - 12, 15, 25

So only twice since 2010 has the worst team even had 20 wins (one of those was last year).  I would expect every team to have at least 20 wins this year.  So the reality is, there are a lot of bad teams, maybe even more than typical, but there are no super terrible teams, which just makes for a lot more parity. 
Title: Re: Are the last 20 NBA games going to be truly horrific?
Post by: celticsclay on February 22, 2018, 03:47:11 PM
The worst record right now has 18 wins, which is a lot higher than years past at this point. 

I mean these are the final win totals for every team at or below 25 wins the last few seasons

2017 - 20, 24
2016 - 10, 17, 21, 23
2015 - 16, 17, 21, 25
2014 - 15, 19, 23, 25
2013 - 20, 24, 25
2012* - 8.69, 24.85 (extrapolated to a full season)
2011 - 17, 19, 22, 23, 24, 24
2010 - 12, 15, 25

So only twice since 2010 has the worst team even had 20 wins (one of those was last year).  I would expect every team to have at least 20 wins this year.  So the reality is, there are a lot of bad teams, maybe even more than typical, but there are no super terrible teams, which just makes for a lot more parity.

How many wins they have is almost irrelevant (obviously as long as playoffs are out of reach). The bigger issues is that they are all so close together with a chance at getting the most lottery balls. That is going to lead to more teams with an interest in losing as many games as possible than normal. Your list actually illustrates this point really well as none of these seasons have this crazy amount of teams (8!) grouped together at the bottom. 
Title: Re: Are the last 20 NBA games going to be truly horrific?
Post by: CFAN38 on February 22, 2018, 03:53:10 PM
The worst record right now has 18 wins, which is a lot higher than years past at this point. 

I mean these are the final win totals for every team at or below 25 wins the last few seasons

2017 - 20, 24
2016 - 10, 17, 21, 23
2015 - 16, 17, 21, 25
2014 - 15, 19, 23, 25
2013 - 20, 24, 25
2012* - 8.69, 24.85 (extrapolated to a full season)
2011 - 17, 19, 22, 23, 24, 24
2010 - 12, 15, 25

So only twice since 2010 has the worst team even had 20 wins (one of those was last year).  I would expect every team to have at least 20 wins this year.  So the reality is, there are a lot of bad teams, maybe even more than typical, but there are no super terrible teams, which just makes for a lot more parity.

How many wins they have is almost irrelevant (obviously as long as playoffs are out of reach). The bigger issues is that they are all so close together with a chance at getting the most lottery balls. That is going to lead to more teams with an interest in losing as many games as possible than normal. Your list actually illustrates this point really well as none of these seasons have this crazy amount of teams (8!) grouped together at the bottom.

You beat me to it. 100% agree total number of wins is not the problem. The issue will be total number of teams who do not want to win. There will be alot of tank vs tank games to end the season. Sad for fans who are paying to see those games.

To Ainge's credit he saw this coming. Hence the 3-6 protection on the LA pick with the Kings pick as a back up and the willingness to move this Nets pick.
Title: Re: Are the last 20 NBA games going to be truly horrific?
Post by: Moranis on February 22, 2018, 04:09:16 PM
The worst record right now has 18 wins, which is a lot higher than years past at this point. 

I mean these are the final win totals for every team at or below 25 wins the last few seasons

2017 - 20, 24
2016 - 10, 17, 21, 23
2015 - 16, 17, 21, 25
2014 - 15, 19, 23, 25
2013 - 20, 24, 25
2012* - 8.69, 24.85 (extrapolated to a full season)
2011 - 17, 19, 22, 23, 24, 24
2010 - 12, 15, 25

So only twice since 2010 has the worst team even had 20 wins (one of those was last year).  I would expect every team to have at least 20 wins this year.  So the reality is, there are a lot of bad teams, maybe even more than typical, but there are no super terrible teams, which just makes for a lot more parity.

How many wins they have is almost irrelevant (obviously as long as playoffs are out of reach). The bigger issues is that they are all so close together with a chance at getting the most lottery balls. That is going to lead to more teams with an interest in losing as many games as possible than normal. Your list actually illustrates this point really well as none of these seasons have this crazy amount of teams (8!) grouped together at the bottom.
The wins do matter though.  When the worst team has 10 wins, instead of say 20 wins, those extra 10 wins have to go somewhere, and they likely aren't going to the top teams. 
Title: Re: Are the last 20 NBA games going to be truly horrific?
Post by: PhoSita on February 22, 2018, 04:22:13 PM
The fact that there aren't any teams with a clear "lead" in the tank race makes it more likely that the teams in the hunt will tank more agtressively. I dont agree that it means games will be more competitive.
Title: Re: Are the last 20 NBA games going to be truly horrific?
Post by: nickagneta on February 22, 2018, 04:33:09 PM
The worst record right now has 18 wins, which is a lot higher than years past at this point. 

I mean these are the final win totals for every team at or below 25 wins the last few seasons

2017 - 20, 24
2016 - 10, 17, 21, 23
2015 - 16, 17, 21, 25
2014 - 15, 19, 23, 25
2013 - 20, 24, 25
2012* - 8.69, 24.85 (extrapolated to a full season)
2011 - 17, 19, 22, 23, 24, 24
2010 - 12, 15, 25

So only twice since 2010 has the worst team even had 20 wins (one of those was last year).  I would expect every team to have at least 20 wins this year.  So the reality is, there are a lot of bad teams, maybe even more than typical, but there are no super terrible teams, which just makes for a lot more parity.
Don't see the relevance. CC's point is about the number of teams close to the bottom and the amount of teams that will tank hard to get to the bottom. Don't see at all how many wins the bottom 6 or less teams over the past 7 years has anything to do with the subject.
Title: Re: Are the last 20 NBA games going to be truly horrific?
Post by: celticsclay on February 22, 2018, 04:40:06 PM
The worst record right now has 18 wins, which is a lot higher than years past at this point. 

I mean these are the final win totals for every team at or below 25 wins the last few seasons

2017 - 20, 24
2016 - 10, 17, 21, 23
2015 - 16, 17, 21, 25
2014 - 15, 19, 23, 25
2013 - 20, 24, 25
2012* - 8.69, 24.85 (extrapolated to a full season)
2011 - 17, 19, 22, 23, 24, 24
2010 - 12, 15, 25

So only twice since 2010 has the worst team even had 20 wins (one of those was last year).  I would expect every team to have at least 20 wins this year.  So the reality is, there are a lot of bad teams, maybe even more than typical, but there are no super terrible teams, which just makes for a lot more parity.

How many wins they have is almost irrelevant (obviously as long as playoffs are out of reach). The bigger issues is that they are all so close together with a chance at getting the most lottery balls. That is going to lead to more teams with an interest in losing as many games as possible than normal. Your list actually illustrates this point really well as none of these seasons have this crazy amount of teams (8!) grouped together at the bottom.

You beat me to it. 100% agree total number of wins is not the problem. The issue will be total number of teams who do not want to win. There will be alot of tank vs tank games to end the season. Sad for fans who are paying to see those games.

To Ainge's credit he saw this coming. Hence the 3-6 protection on the LA pick with the Kings pick as a back up and the willingness to move this Nets pick.

Yeah thank you. TP, seems like everyone gets it. More teams with a chance at the bottom with a chance at number 1 is the issue whether they are all at 5 or 15 wins.
Title: Re: Are the last 20 NBA games going to be truly horrific?
Post by: celticsclay on February 22, 2018, 04:43:01 PM
The worst record right now has 18 wins, which is a lot higher than years past at this point. 

I mean these are the final win totals for every team at or below 25 wins the last few seasons

2017 - 20, 24
2016 - 10, 17, 21, 23
2015 - 16, 17, 21, 25
2014 - 15, 19, 23, 25
2013 - 20, 24, 25
2012* - 8.69, 24.85 (extrapolated to a full season)
2011 - 17, 19, 22, 23, 24, 24
2010 - 12, 15, 25

So only twice since 2010 has the worst team even had 20 wins (one of those was last year).  I would expect every team to have at least 20 wins this year.  So the reality is, there are a lot of bad teams, maybe even more than typical, but there are no super terrible teams, which just makes for a lot more parity.
Don't see the relevance. CC's point is about the number of teams close to the bottom and the amount of teams that will tank hard to get to the bottom. Don't see at all how many wins the bottom 6 or less teams over the past 7 years has anything to do with the subject.

Yea I thought he was supporting my point at first, but this aspect isn't really relevant. The issue is 8 teams with a legit shot at the number 1 pick whether they have 5, 15 or 22 wins. I think Silver sees this problem on the horizon for the rest of the season and may have fed into Cuban's fine being so large (600k). Trying to send a message to get ahead of it before things get really crazy.
Title: Re: Are the last 20 NBA games going to be truly horrific?
Post by: tazzmaniac on February 22, 2018, 05:51:09 PM
The tankfest may be more exciting than the playoff race.  How low can some of these teams go?  Atlanta appears to have a good shot.  ESPN has them with one of the easiest schedules so far and of their remaining games only 5 are against teams currently in the bottom 10. 
Title: Re: Are the last 20 NBA games going to be truly horrific?
Post by: rondofan1255 on February 22, 2018, 06:30:03 PM
LOL at Robin Lopez and Justin Holiday being DNP-CD. Cristiano Felicio (!) and Nwaba starters for ROS likely.

 
Title: Re: Are the last 20 NBA games going to be truly horrific?
Post by: keevsnick on February 22, 2018, 07:17:28 PM
Yes. But I've never had a problem with tanking. I mean these teams are out of it one way or another, and in some ways the purposeful losing just gives fans a reason to watch that they wouldn't otherwise have. Even if tanking didn't exist teams would still transition to giving playing time to young guys (who will likely help lose) just to see what they have. On top of all that its kind of fascinating to watch play out. I dont care about any of these teams (outside of the Lakers) and i will still pay attention.
Title: Re: Are the last 20 NBA games going to be truly horrific?
Post by: celticsclay on February 22, 2018, 08:09:57 PM
Yes. But I've never had a problem with tanking. I mean these teams are out of it one way or another, and in some ways the purposeful losing just gives fans a reason to watch that they wouldn't otherwise have. Even if tanking didn't exist teams would still transition to giving playing time to young guys (who will likely help lose) just to see what they have. On top of all that its kind of fascinating to watch play out. I dont care about any of these teams (outside of the Lakers) and i will still pay attention.

They do make for some real cheap games to attend in markets that are otherwise very expensive. I would like to see some of these vets gets freed from these nonsense. Like why do the suns free monroe but keep chandler for the last moments he has of nba effectiveness.
Title: Re: Are the last 20 NBA games going to be truly horrific?
Post by: tarheelsxxiii on February 22, 2018, 08:30:37 PM
Yes. But I've never had a problem with tanking. I mean these teams are out of it one way or another, and in some ways the purposeful losing just gives fans a reason to watch that they wouldn't otherwise have. Even if tanking didn't exist teams would still transition to giving playing time to young guys (who will likely help lose) just to see what they have. On top of all that its kind of fascinating to watch play out. I dont care about any of these teams (outside of the Lakers) and i will still pay attention.

They do make for some real cheap games to attend in markets that are otherwise very expensive. I would like to see some of these vets gets freed from these nonsense. Like why do the suns free monroe but keep chandler for the last moments he has of nba effectiveness.

He's like the ultimate locker room guy.  Chandler and Booker were in a Players' Tribune series, Rookie/Vet, in Booker's rookie year.  It's adorable, clay.
Title: Re: Are the last 20 NBA games going to be truly horrific?
Post by: Moranis on February 22, 2018, 08:38:37 PM
The worst record right now has 18 wins, which is a lot higher than years past at this point. 

I mean these are the final win totals for every team at or below 25 wins the last few seasons

2017 - 20, 24
2016 - 10, 17, 21, 23
2015 - 16, 17, 21, 25
2014 - 15, 19, 23, 25
2013 - 20, 24, 25
2012* - 8.69, 24.85 (extrapolated to a full season)
2011 - 17, 19, 22, 23, 24, 24
2010 - 12, 15, 25

So only twice since 2010 has the worst team even had 20 wins (one of those was last year).  I would expect every team to have at least 20 wins this year.  So the reality is, there are a lot of bad teams, maybe even more than typical, but there are no super terrible teams, which just makes for a lot more parity.
Don't see the relevance. CC's point is about the number of teams close to the bottom and the amount of teams that will tank hard to get to the bottom. Don't see at all how many wins the bottom 6 or less teams over the past 7 years has anything to do with the subject.

Yea I thought he was supporting my point at first, but this aspect isn't really relevant. The issue is 8 teams with a legit shot at the number 1 pick whether they have 5, 15 or 22 wins. I think Silver sees this problem on the horizon for the rest of the season and may have fed into Cuban's fine being so large (600k). Trying to send a message to get ahead of it before things get really crazy.
I was supporting the point. In years past there have been truly terrible teams which isn't the case this year. Just a bunch of bad ones.  When there are truly terrible teams other bad teams have inflated win totals.  We are going to see a lot of teams in the low 20's in wins and very few in the upper 20's or low 30's like most years
Title: Re: Are the last 20 NBA games going to be truly horrific?
Post by: celticsclay on February 26, 2018, 02:15:26 PM
The worst record right now has 18 wins, which is a lot higher than years past at this point. 

I mean these are the final win totals for every team at or below 25 wins the last few seasons

2017 - 20, 24
2016 - 10, 17, 21, 23
2015 - 16, 17, 21, 25
2014 - 15, 19, 23, 25
2013 - 20, 24, 25
2012* - 8.69, 24.85 (extrapolated to a full season)
2011 - 17, 19, 22, 23, 24, 24
2010 - 12, 15, 25

So only twice since 2010 has the worst team even had 20 wins (one of those was last year).  I would expect every team to have at least 20 wins this year.  So the reality is, there are a lot of bad teams, maybe even more than typical, but there are no super terrible teams, which just makes for a lot more parity.
Don't see the relevance. CC's point is about the number of teams close to the bottom and the amount of teams that will tank hard to get to the bottom. Don't see at all how many wins the bottom 6 or less teams over the past 7 years has anything to do with the subject.

Yea I thought he was supporting my point at first, but this aspect isn't really relevant. The issue is 8 teams with a legit shot at the number 1 pick whether they have 5, 15 or 22 wins. I think Silver sees this problem on the horizon for the rest of the season and may have fed into Cuban's fine being so large (600k). Trying to send a message to get ahead of it before things get really crazy.
I was supporting the point. In years past there have been truly terrible teams which isn't the case this year. Just a bunch of bad ones.  When there are truly terrible teams other bad teams have inflated win totals.  We are going to see a lot of teams in the low 20's in wins and very few in the upper 20's or low 30's like most years

ESPN weighed in on this today, a few interesting nuggets including the concept of reverse using advanced analytics to put your worst team on the floor.

http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/22573750/how-nba-bottom-dwellers-putting-tanking-clinic-nba
Title: Re: Are the last 20 NBA games going to be truly horrific?
Post by: tarheelsxxiii on March 04, 2018, 10:52:46 PM
Good call by the OP.  These games have been truly painful to watch, one after the next...
Title: Re: Are the last 20 NBA games going to be truly horrific?
Post by: celticsclay on March 05, 2018, 01:21:23 AM
Good call by the OP.  These games have been truly painful to watch, one after the next...

Great post Tars. The Knicks and kings game or hawks and sun games were both "close games" but they really were not nba basketball. They are just weird situations where you have 40 year old Vince carter guarding Michael Beasley in crunch time. It feels like one of those big 3 league games...
Title: Re: Are the last 20 NBA games going to be truly horrific?
Post by: tarheelsxxiii on March 05, 2018, 01:26:16 AM
Good call by the OP.  These games have been truly painful to watch, one after the next...

Great post Tars. The Knicks and kings game or hawks and sun games were both "close games" but they really were not nba basketball. They are just weird situations where you have 40 year old Vince carter guarding Michael Beasley in crunch time. It feels like one of those big 3 league games...

A friend from NY texted me tonight: "Lol. NYK gettin stomped out by the Kings. Might be a new low.  Though prob for the best to lose."
Title: Re: Are the last 20 NBA games going to be truly horrific?
Post by: Ilikesports17 on March 05, 2018, 01:39:19 AM
I, along with most of this blog, have followed the bottom feeders closely for the past few years and this is without a doubt the earliest, most widespread, most egregious tanking I've seen.

It's worse than tank for Wiggins. It's worse than last year. It's worse than 2 years ago. Hard to compare it to past years because I only usually pay attention to the trash when it affects us. 06-07 really felt awful but it felt like way fewer teams were trying to lose.
Title: Re: Are the last 20 NBA games going to be truly horrific?
Post by: nickagneta on March 05, 2018, 01:46:10 AM
Good call by the OP.  These games have been truly painful to watch, one after the next...

Great post Tars. The Knicks and kings game or hawks and sun games were both "close games" but they really were not nba basketball. They are just weird situations where you have 40 year old Vince carter guarding Michael Beasley in crunch time. It feels like one of those big 3 league games...

A friend from NY texted me tonight: "Lol. NYK gettin stomped out by the Kings. Might be a new low.  Though prob for the best to lose."
LOL..Your friend from NY, must have forgotten all those other "low" times like '85, '86, '87,  '02,  '05, '06, '07, '08, '09, '10, '15, and '16. Seems like the Knicks have had a whole lot of new "lows" over the last 30 years.
Title: Re: Are the last 20 NBA games going to be truly horrific?
Post by: Androslav on March 05, 2018, 06:27:51 AM
Looks like 9 teams want to lose. That makes it 30% of the league.
Since 2 teams compete for each game it makes it very likely that one of the 9 teams is on the floor.

So to answer;
Expect many unwatchable games late in the year, especially the double tank games.

However, we get some "playoff" games a month or two earlier, so we have some compensation.
Title: Re: Are the last 20 NBA games going to be truly horrific?
Post by: jambr380 on March 05, 2018, 08:02:07 AM
Looks like 9 teams want to lose. That makes it 30% of the league.
Since 2 teams compete for each game it makes it very likely that one of the 9 teams is on the floor.

So to answer;
Expect many unwatchable games late in the year, especially the double tank games.

However, we get some "playoff" games a month or two earlier, so we have some compensation.

Looks like Sac/Phx/Dal/Mem in the West and Atl/Orl/Chi/NYK in the East (with NYK having the biggest disadvantage with 24 wins already).

The silver lining in all of this? The Lakers won't be giving the Sixers a very good pick this year as they already have 28 wins (with a very small chance to convey to us) and BKN shouldn't be tanking at all, meaning the Cavs best asset should become worth a lot less.
Title: Re: Are the last 20 NBA games going to be truly horrific?
Post by: Moranis on March 05, 2018, 11:02:35 AM
This season has a mid-90's feel.  For example, in 96/97 the Bulls won over 80%, the Heat and Jazz won over 70%, and the Knicks, Hawks, Pistons, Hornets, Rockets and Lakers were all 60% win teams (and the Blazers just missed).  But on the other side there were 6 teams below 30% and 3 others below 40%.  3 west teams made the playoffs below .500 and 1 east team missed the playoffs that was above .500.  It was basically a foregone conclusion that the Bulls would win the title, but people did hold out some hope for the Heat or Jazz making it a series.

This year, the top end isn't quite there with just the Rockets, Warriors, and Raptors above 70% and only the Celtics above 60%, but there are 3 teams above 58% and 3 more above 57%.  On the low end there are just 3 teams below 30%, but 6 other teams below 40%.  It doesn't appear anyone will make the playoffs with a below .500 win percentage but it looks like 2 might miss them that are above .500.  It also appears that the Warriors winning is a foregone conclusion, but people are hoping that they at least get challenged by Houston so it is more interesting.

Now in 97 the two worst teams (Vancouver and Boston) were a good deal lower than anyone else, so it wasn't quite the race to the bottom that might happen this year, but this year really does seem very similar to those mid to late 90's seasons, when there was an all time team with a lot of good, but not great, teams throughout the playoffs, and also a whole lot of downright awful teams at the bottom of the standings.