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Celtics Basketball => Celtics Talk => Topic started by: Big333223 on December 15, 2017, 02:09:30 PM

Title: Lowe on Marcus Smart's Passing
Post by: Big333223 on December 15, 2017, 02:09:30 PM
Marcus made Zach Lowe's "Ten Things" list this week.

Quote
It's an NBA riddle: How can a wing shooting 32 percent end up on the positive side of the plus-minus ledger every night? Boston fans would point to Smart's bullying, chest-to-chest defense, and the balls-to-the-wall plays -- flying in from nowhere for rebounds and saves -- that inspire teammates. (Many of those fans would wish not to consider the possibility that some of those plus-minus numbers are random noise that comes with playing on a very good team, and that historically bad shooting is harmful on certain nights.)

The debate has given short shrift to Smart's passing -- a must for any non-shooter who has the ball so much. Smart has grown in that department every year. He was wild and uncertain at first. By last season, he had mastered the simple stuff -- obvious drive-and-kick reads, pick-and-pop passes to Al Horford.

Now, he's thinking one step ahead, manipulating defenses:

...

Smart's swing pass kicks off that sequence. When the ball gets back to him, Smart drives with a purpose: He knows he can toast Malcolm Brogdon, and that if he does, Marcus Morris will fade to the corner. A bigger guard who can run the offense provides crucial roster flexibility.

Smart's free agency this summer will be fascinating. The league doesn't quite know what to do with him. He's a polarizing player. Given Boston's financial commitments to Horford, Gordon Hayward, and Kyrie Irving -- plus the play of Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, both ahead of Smart now in the organizational pecking order -- a rich offer sheet could present Boston with a thorny dilemma.
Title: Re: Lowe on Marcus Smart's Passing
Post by: More Banners on December 15, 2017, 02:12:04 PM
Looks like Zach Lowe has been reading cb.
Title: Re: Lowe on Marcus Smart's Passing
Post by: mef730 on December 15, 2017, 02:39:47 PM
Did anyone else see the headline and worry that Marcus had died?

Mike
Title: Re: Lowe on Marcus Smart's Passing
Post by: JohnBoy65 on December 15, 2017, 03:00:07 PM
Did anyone else see the headline and worry that Marcus had died?

Mike

Funny, TP Sir!
Title: Re: Lowe on Marcus Smart's Passing
Post by: Monkhouse on December 15, 2017, 03:11:37 PM
Quote
His 27.9 assist ratio is a career high, and when you look at his offensive numbers with passing Smart jumps from the 7th percentile to the 51st. Smart has a career-high usage rate, and the problem with that is it has led to a career-high turnover ratio at 14.
 
This is a take the good with the bad scenarios. Stevens will live with some Smart turnovers because he knows he will make some great passes as well. Here is the number that sums it up. Smarts assist to usage percentage according to Cleaningtheglass.com is 1.10, one of the best marks among all guards. His turnover percentage is 16.8 percent, one of the worst marks among all guards. But despite the turnovers, Smart always makes the extra pass.

The Celtics are 9.6 points better when MS-36 is on the floor. Smart accounts for 36% of our total assists as a team, so you can make the educated guess and assume Smart's contributions on the floor, via defense, passing, screen-assisting, and intangibles cannot be defined.
Title: Re: Lowe on Marcus Smart's Passing
Post by: wvcelticsfan on December 15, 2017, 03:19:32 PM
Did anyone else see the headline and worry that Marcus had died?

Mike

YES! I almost had a heart attack myself.
Title: Re: Lowe on Marcus Smart's Passing
Post by: mmmmm on December 15, 2017, 04:06:23 PM
Quote
His 27.9 assist ratio is a career high, and when you look at his offensive numbers with passing Smart jumps from the 7th percentile to the 51st. Smart has a career-high usage rate, and the problem with that is it has led to a career-high turnover ratio at 14.
 
This is a take the good with the bad scenarios. Stevens will live with some Smart turnovers because he knows he will make some great passes as well. Here is the number that sums it up. Smarts assist to usage percentage according to Cleaningtheglass.com is 1.10, one of the best marks among all guards. His turnover percentage is 16.8 percent, one of the worst marks among all guards. But despite the turnovers, Smart always makes the extra pass.

The Celtics are 9.6 points better when MS-36 is on the floor. Smart accounts for 36% of our total assists as a team, so you can make the educated guess and assume Smart's contributions on the floor, via defense, passing, screen-assisting, and intangibles cannot be defined.

Weeeell ... yes ... so long as Al Horford is also on the floor.

When Smart has been on the floor while Al has not, the net rating has been a mere +0.4 points per 100.  The team TS% drops to just 50% in that configuration.
Title: Re: Lowe on Marcus Smart's Passing
Post by: FatKidsDad on December 15, 2017, 04:09:32 PM
Did anyone else see the headline and worry that Marcus had died?

Mike

YES! I almost had a heart attack myself.
Same here
Title: Re: Lowe on Marcus Smart's Passing
Post by: Monkhouse on December 15, 2017, 04:14:47 PM
Quote
His 27.9 assist ratio is a career high, and when you look at his offensive numbers with passing Smart jumps from the 7th percentile to the 51st. Smart has a career-high usage rate, and the problem with that is it has led to a career-high turnover ratio at 14.
 
This is a take the good with the bad scenarios. Stevens will live with some Smart turnovers because he knows he will make some great passes as well. Here is the number that sums it up. Smarts assist to usage percentage according to Cleaningtheglass.com is 1.10, one of the best marks among all guards. His turnover percentage is 16.8 percent, one of the worst marks among all guards. But despite the turnovers, Smart always makes the extra pass.

The Celtics are 9.6 points better when MS-36 is on the floor. Smart accounts for 36% of our total assists as a team, so you can make the educated guess and assume Smart's contributions on the floor, via defense, passing, screen-assisting, and intangibles cannot be defined.

Weeeell ... yes ... so long as Al Horford is also on the floor.

When Smart has been on the floor while Al has not, the net rating has been a mere +0.4 points per 100.  The team TS% drops to just 50% in that configuration.

Ah, I see. I guess I was looking at the wrong stats. Imagine if Smart could at least shoot the 3 above 35%.... Sigh...
Title: Re: Lowe on Marcus Smart's Passing
Post by: fairweatherfan on December 15, 2017, 04:29:27 PM
For all Marcus' good and bad traits and all the chatter they get, it seems like we almost never talk about his court vision.

It seems like he's always got his eye on a play he could make, whether the opportunity pans out or not. With the ball in particular but off the ball too. Lets him snap us right into a scoring opportunity when the defense slips even a little. Really underrated aspect of his game.
Title: Re: Lowe on Marcus Smart's Passing
Post by: kozlodoev on December 15, 2017, 05:57:38 PM
For all Marcus' good and bad traits and all the chatter they get, it seems like we almost never talk about his court vision.

It seems like he's always got his eye on a play he could make, whether the opportunity pans out or not. With the ball in particular but off the ball too. Lets him snap us right into a scoring opportunity when the defense slips even a little. Really underrated aspect of his game.
That because the great passes get lost between all the boneheaded plays.
Title: Re: Lowe on Marcus Smart's Passing
Post by: Boris Badenov on December 15, 2017, 06:31:16 PM
Quote
His 27.9 assist ratio is a career high, and when you look at his offensive numbers with passing Smart jumps from the 7th percentile to the 51st. Smart has a career-high usage rate, and the problem with that is it has led to a career-high turnover ratio at 14.
 
This is a take the good with the bad scenarios. Stevens will live with some Smart turnovers because he knows he will make some great passes as well. Here is the number that sums it up. Smarts assist to usage percentage according to Cleaningtheglass.com is 1.10, one of the best marks among all guards. His turnover percentage is 16.8 percent, one of the worst marks among all guards. But despite the turnovers, Smart always makes the extra pass.

The Celtics are 9.6 points better when MS-36 is on the floor. Smart accounts for 36% of our total assists as a team, so you can make the educated guess and assume Smart's contributions on the floor, via defense, passing, screen-assisting, and intangibles cannot be defined.

Weeeell ... yes ... so long as Al Horford is also on the floor.

When Smart has been on the floor while Al has not, the net rating has been a mere +0.4 points per 100.  The team TS% drops to just 50% in that configuration.

Relative to what though? When Al's off the floor overall we have a -3 net rating.

So doesn't the fact that we are +0.4 in that scenario when Smart plays mean that he improves those lineups too?
Title: Re: Lowe on Marcus Smart's Passing
Post by: Big333223 on December 15, 2017, 07:35:33 PM
Did anyone else see the headline and worry that Marcus had died?

Mike

YES! I almost had a heart attack myself.
Same here
lol

My bad.
Title: Re: Lowe on Marcus Smart's Passing
Post by: ThePaintedArea on December 15, 2017, 07:55:39 PM
Did anyone else see the headline and worry that Marcus had died?

Mike

 :laugh: ;D ;)
Title: Re: Lowe on Marcus Smart's Passing
Post by: Greyman on December 15, 2017, 08:26:35 PM
Did anyone else see the headline and worry that Marcus had died?

Mike

Thank you for brightening my day.  :D
Title: Re: Lowe on Marcus Smart's Passing
Post by: crimson_stallion on December 15, 2017, 10:07:56 PM
Marcus Smart's passing is the most overrated item on this team.

The man averages a thoroughly mediocre 5.3 assists in 30 minutes (6.2 assists Per 36) versus 2.5 turnovers (3.0 Per 36). 

That means not only are his assist numbers mediocre, but his assist to turnover rate (2.12) is also extremely average.

Smart has registered 147 assists this year, and he's registered 37 turnovers off bad passes.  That essentially indicates that about 25% of his passes are bad passes. 

There is not a single statistic I have ever seen in Marcus Smart's entire career (college or Pro) to suggest he is anything more then an average passer.

I am thoroughly dissapointed by Marcus Smart this year.  So many players on the team have taken such big steps forward, and yet he is the only guy who has shown absolutely zero progress on either end of the floor. His game has not changed at all after four seasons in the league, and I've well and truly given up on investing any more time on him. 

The longer I see him ranking top 5 on the team in field goal attempts while shooting 32% / 29% / 72% the more I grow tired of seeing his face on this roster.  I don't care what anybody says, at this point I have zero interest in Boston re-signing him and would rather see the team move forward with Rozier as their primary backup ball handler. 
Title: Re: Lowe on Marcus Smart's Passing
Post by: D Dub on December 15, 2017, 10:15:17 PM
Marcus Smart's passing is the most overrated item on this team.

The man averages a thoroughly mediocre 5.3 assists in 30 minutes (6.2 assists Per 36) versus 2.5 turnovers (3.0 Per 36). 

That means not only are his assist numbers mediocre, but his assist to turnover rate (2.12) is also extremely average.

Smart has registered 147 assists this year, and he's registered 37 turnovers off bad passes.  That essentially indicates that about 25% of his passes are bad passes. 

There is not a single statistic I have ever seen in Marcus Smart's entire career (college or Pro) to suggest he is anything more then an average passer.

I am thoroughly dissapointed by Marcus Smart this year.  So many players on the team have taken such big steps forward, and yet he is the only guy who has shown absolutely zero progress on either end of the floor. His game has not changed at all after four seasons in the league, and I've well and truly given up on investing any more time on him. 

The longer I see him ranking top 5 on the team in field goal attempts while shooting 32% / 29% / 72% the more I grow tired of seeing his face on this roster.  I don't care what anybody says, at this point I have zero interest in Boston re-signing him and would rather see the team move forward with Rozier as their primary backup ball handler.

Interesting take.  Couldn’t disagree more. 

Smart constantly making plays.  Covers 5 positions, and contrary to your stats, makes hockey assist passes too. 

You do realize not _every_ pass he makes results in a shot?  That 25% stat you came up with is fairly bogus.
Title: Re: Lowe on Marcus Smart's Passing
Post by: crimson_stallion on December 15, 2017, 10:19:30 PM
Quote
His 27.9 assist ratio is a career high, and when you look at his offensive numbers with passing Smart jumps from the 7th percentile to the 51st. Smart has a career-high usage rate, and the problem with that is it has led to a career-high turnover ratio at 14.
 
This is a take the good with the bad scenarios. Stevens will live with some Smart turnovers because he knows he will make some great passes as well. Here is the number that sums it up. Smarts assist to usage percentage according to Cleaningtheglass.com is 1.10, one of the best marks among all guards. His turnover percentage is 16.8 percent, one of the worst marks among all guards. But despite the turnovers, Smart always makes the extra pass.

The Celtics are 9.6 points better when MS-36 is on the floor. Smart accounts for 36% of our total assists as a team, so you can make the educated guess and assume Smart's contributions on the floor, via defense, passing, screen-assisting, and intangibles cannot be defined.

I suspect you might be mistaking this figure?

Off Rtg and Def Rtg represents the number of points per 100 possessions a team scores / allows  while a certain player is on the court, so for offensive rating higher is better, for defensive rating lower is better. 

Smart has an offensive rating of 92 and a defensive rating of 103.  That means while Smart is on the court, Boston is scoring 92 points per 100 possessions and allowing 103 points per 100 possessions.  We are being outscored by 11 points per 100 possessions with him on the court.

By comparison Terry Rozier has an offensive rating of 107 and a defensive rating of 102, so boston is outscoring opponents by 5 points per 100 possessions when he is on the court.

Smart's overall real-plus-minus is +0.37 which ranks 22nd among all NBA PG's - barely scraping the top 30.  Rozier's RPM of +1.2 ranks him 15th among PG's.

With the exception of total assists generated, Terry Rozier is outdoing Smart in practically every single statistical category (both advanced and simple) - not only has he been the better player this year, but he's also show far more progression over the years compared to Smart - he is essentially the exact same player he was 4 years ago.

If anything Rozier plays even better when his opportunities are increased, and Marcus Smart is in the way of that because for some irrational reason he always gets gifted the extra minutes when they are available. 

I don't understand the Smart love, and I will be well and truly shocked if Boston offers him a double figure extension after this season given the way he's playing.  He's in the perfect system here because Boston has so many quality shooters that the team can somewhat cover for his horrendous shooting ability - so the version of Smart that we all see right now is the best version anybody will ever see.  If he goes to any other team (with less shooters around him) his career will instantly collapse and he will immediately be demoted to defensive role player off the bench for the rest of his career, since that is effectively the only thing he can do at an exceptionally high level with any kind of consistency.
Title: Re: Lowe on Marcus Smart's Passing
Post by: crimson_stallion on December 15, 2017, 10:25:21 PM
Marcus Smart's passing is the most overrated item on this team.

The man averages a thoroughly mediocre 5.3 assists in 30 minutes (6.2 assists Per 36) versus 2.5 turnovers (3.0 Per 36). 

That means not only are his assist numbers mediocre, but his assist to turnover rate (2.12) is also extremely average.

Smart has registered 147 assists this year, and he's registered 37 turnovers off bad passes.  That essentially indicates that about 25% of his passes are bad passes. 

There is not a single statistic I have ever seen in Marcus Smart's entire career (college or Pro) to suggest he is anything more then an average passer.

I am thoroughly dissapointed by Marcus Smart this year.  So many players on the team have taken such big steps forward, and yet he is the only guy who has shown absolutely zero progress on either end of the floor. His game has not changed at all after four seasons in the league, and I've well and truly given up on investing any more time on him. 

The longer I see him ranking top 5 on the team in field goal attempts while shooting 32% / 29% / 72% the more I grow tired of seeing his face on this roster.  I don't care what anybody says, at this point I have zero interest in Boston re-signing him and would rather see the team move forward with Rozier as their primary backup ball handler.

Interesting take.  Couldn’t disagree more. 

Smart constantly making plays.  Covers 5 positions, and contrary to your stats, makes hockey assist passes too. 

You do realize not _every_ pass he makes results in a shot?  That 25% stat you came up with is fairly bogus.

Covers 5 positions?  Give me a break.  something like 99% of Smart's minutes have come at PG, SG, SF and I don't think I've seen him defend a legit center in my life - nor would I want to.  The guy excels at defending SGs and SFs and the occasional stretch four.  He struggles against PG's due to his lack of quickness. 

Regardless, I don't have a problem with Smart's defense - it's the one thing he does at an exceptional level. 

What I have a problem with is the fact that he is an average passer, a mediocre ball handler, is turnover prone, makes poor decisions with the ball more often then not, and averages 32% FG on 10 attempts a night. 

If Smart simply did not shoot the ball - then I could accept his position on the team as a defensive role player.  But the fact that he forces so many shots when he knows [dang] well that he cannot shoot to save his life (come on bro, it's been four years - like he hasn't worked it out by now?) infuriates me.  He has a great impact on D, but he hurts the team as much on offense as he helps it on defense.  Save for the occasional bit hustle plays (like saves, dives on loose balls, etc) that happen every now and again, he really contributes next to nothing on the offensive end.  He is a worse version of Rajon Rondo on offence - because at least Rondo had an elite ability to get other people involved, and was an excellent finisher at the basket. There isn't a single thing Smart does well on offense, not one.
Title: Re: Lowe on Marcus Smart's Passing
Post by: Monkhouse on December 15, 2017, 10:45:40 PM
Marcus Smart's passing is the most overrated item on this team.

The man averages a thoroughly mediocre 5.3 assists in 30 minutes (6.2 assists Per 36) versus 2.5 turnovers (3.0 Per 36). 

That means not only are his assist numbers mediocre, but his assist to turnover rate (2.12) is also extremely average.

Smart has registered 147 assists this year, and he's registered 37 turnovers off bad passes.  That essentially indicates that about 25% of his passes are bad passes. 

There is not a single statistic I have ever seen in Marcus Smart's entire career (college or Pro) to suggest he is anything more then an average passer.

I am thoroughly dissapointed by Marcus Smart this year.  So many players on the team have taken such big steps forward, and yet he is the only guy who has shown absolutely zero progress on either end of the floor. His game has not changed at all after four seasons in the league, and I've well and truly given up on investing any more time on him. 

The longer I see him ranking top 5 on the team in field goal attempts while shooting 32% / 29% / 72% the more I grow tired of seeing his face on this roster.  I don't care what anybody says, at this point I have zero interest in Boston re-signing him and would rather see the team move forward with Rozier as their primary backup ball handler.

Interesting take.  Couldn’t disagree more. 

Smart constantly making plays.  Covers 5 positions, and contrary to your stats, makes hockey assist passes too. 

You do realize not _every_ pass he makes results in a shot?  That 25% stat you came up with is fairly bogus.

Covers 5 positions?  Give me a break.  something like 99% of Smart's minutes have come at PG, SG, SF and I don't think I've seen him defend a legit center in my life - nor would I want to.  The guy excels at defending SGs and SFs and the occasional stretch four.  He struggles against PG's due to his lack of quickness. 

Regardless, I don't have a problem with Smart's defense - it's the one thing he does at an exceptional level. 

What I have a problem with is the fact that he is an average passer, a mediocre ball handler, is turnover prone, makes poor decisions with the ball more often then not, and averages 32% FG on 10 attempts a night. 

If Smart simply did not shoot the ball - then I could accept his position on the team as a defensive role player.  But the fact that he forces so many shots when he knows [dang] well that he cannot shoot to save his life (come on bro, it's been four years - like he hasn't worked it out by now?) infuriates me.  He has a great impact on D, but he hurts the team as much on offense as he helps it on defense.  Save for the occasional bit hustle plays (like saves, dives on loose balls, etc) that happen every now and again, he really contributes next to nothing on the offensive end.  He is a worse version of Rajon Rondo on offence - because at least Rondo had an elite ability to get other people involved, and was an excellent finisher at the basket. There isn't a single thing Smart does well on offense, not one.

I get your point. I do feel that Smart should tone it down on offense, and stick to what he knows best. But you can't chalk his turnovers and assist ratio on him entirely; the team lost its second best player, chemistry issues, and the Horford and Smart pick and roll seem promising. I also dread how much of a contract that he's going to eventually wind up with.

The thing is, Stevens is going to play him regardless of how he shoots. I just hope he finally learns how to at least pull it together, and draw fouls. It's beyond me in the fact that Smart has such great lateral quickness exhibited on defense, but just can't even make simple lay ups. Last both games. he's been clearly out matched offensively.
Title: Re: Lowe on Marcus Smart's Passing
Post by: Big333223 on December 16, 2017, 07:27:41 AM
Smart has an offensive rating of 92 and a defensive rating of 103.  That means while Smart is on the court, Boston is scoring 92 points per 100 possessions and allowing 103 points per 100 possessions.  We are being outscored by 11 points per 100 possessions with him on the court.
Are there any stat wizards that can weigh in on this? Basketball reference lists these numbers for Smart but then under "Play-by-Play" stats it shows his +/- as +11.7 which mirrors everything I've read about him. How can his DRtg be higher than his Ortg and this be so? I'm confused.
Title: Re: Lowe on Marcus Smart's Passing
Post by: JohnBoy65 on December 16, 2017, 10:58:17 AM
Marcus Smart's passing is the most overrated item on this team.

The man averages a thoroughly mediocre 5.3 assists in 30 minutes (6.2 assists Per 36) versus 2.5 turnovers (3.0 Per 36). 

That means not only are his assist numbers mediocre, but his assist to turnover rate (2.12) is also extremely average.

Smart has registered 147 assists this year, and he's registered 37 turnovers off bad passes.  That essentially indicates that about 25% of his passes are bad passes. 

There is not a single statistic I have ever seen in Marcus Smart's entire career (college or Pro) to suggest he is anything more then an average passer.

I am thoroughly dissapointed by Marcus Smart this year.  So many players on the team have taken such big steps forward, and yet he is the only guy who has shown absolutely zero progress on either end of the floor. His game has not changed at all after four seasons in the league, and I've well and truly given up on investing any more time on him. 

The longer I see him ranking top 5 on the team in field goal attempts while shooting 32% / 29% / 72% the more I grow tired of seeing his face on this roster.  I don't care what anybody says, at this point I have zero interest in Boston re-signing him and would rather see the team move forward with Rozier as their primary backup ball handler.

Here's the problem with that take, with Boston's cap situation it's not like they can get anyone better, and are we really better off just cutting ties with Smart? Probably what the most likely scenario is match any plausible offer and put him on the trade market, assuming the Celtics front office has the same opinion as you do on Smart. It'd be totally negligent to just cut ties with Smart this summer.
Title: Re: Lowe on Marcus Smart's Passing
Post by: droopdog7 on December 16, 2017, 11:53:17 AM
Marcus Smart's passing is the most overrated item on this team.

The man averages a thoroughly mediocre 5.3 assists in 30 minutes (6.2 assists Per 36) versus 2.5 turnovers (3.0 Per 36). 

That means not only are his assist numbers mediocre, but his assist to turnover rate (2.12) is also extremely average.

Smart has registered 147 assists this year, and he's registered 37 turnovers off bad passes.  That essentially indicates that about 25% of his passes are bad passes. 

There is not a single statistic I have ever seen in Marcus Smart's entire career (college or Pro) to suggest he is anything more then an average passer.

I am thoroughly dissapointed by Marcus Smart this year.  So many players on the team have taken such big steps forward, and yet he is the only guy who has shown absolutely zero progress on either end of the floor. His game has not changed at all after four seasons in the league, and I've well and truly given up on investing any more time on him. 

The longer I see him ranking top 5 on the team in field goal attempts while shooting 32% / 29% / 72% the more I grow tired of seeing his face on this roster.  I don't care what anybody says, at this point I have zero interest in Boston re-signing him and would rather see the team move forward with Rozier as their primary backup ball handler.
Completely agree.  Marcus is horrible in every aspect of offensive basketball except passing, where he’s maybe about average.  So people overblowing his play making like it’s great when it really isn’t.
Title: Re: Lowe on Marcus Smart's Passing
Post by: konkmv on December 16, 2017, 12:19:58 PM
Trade him?
Title: Re: Lowe on Marcus Smart's Passing
Post by: unclebay on December 16, 2017, 01:51:23 PM
Marcus Smart's passing is the most overrated item on this team.

The man averages a thoroughly mediocre 5.3 assists in 30 minutes (6.2 assists Per 36) versus 2.5 turnovers (3.0 Per 36). 

That means not only are his assist numbers mediocre, but his assist to turnover rate (2.12) is also extremely average.

Smart has registered 147 assists this year, and he's registered 37 turnovers off bad passes.  That essentially indicates that about 25% of his passes are bad passes. 

There is not a single statistic I have ever seen in Marcus Smart's entire career (college or Pro) to suggest he is anything more then an average passer.

I am thoroughly dissapointed by Marcus Smart this year.  So many players on the team have taken such big steps forward, and yet he is the only guy who has shown absolutely zero progress on either end of the floor. His game has not changed at all after four seasons in the league, and I've well and truly given up on investing any more time on him. 

The longer I see him ranking top 5 on the team in field goal attempts while shooting 32% / 29% / 72% the more I grow tired of seeing his face on this roster.  I don't care what anybody says, at this point I have zero interest in Boston re-signing him and would rather see the team move forward with Rozier as their primary backup ball handler.

Interesting take.  Couldn’t disagree more. 

Smart constantly making plays.  Covers 5 positions, and contrary to your stats, makes hockey assist passes too. 

You do realize not _every_ pass he makes results in a shot?  That 25% stat you came up with is fairly bogus.

Covers 5 positions?  Give me a break.  something like 99% of Smart's minutes have come at PG, SG, SF and I don't think I've seen him defend a legit center in my life - nor would I want to.  The guy excels at defending SGs and SFs and the occasional stretch four.  He struggles against PG's due to his lack of quickness. 

Regardless, I don't have a problem with Smart's defense - it's the one thing he does at an exceptional level. 

What I have a problem with is the fact that he is an average passer, a mediocre ball handler, is turnover prone, makes poor decisions with the ball more often then not, and averages 32% FG on 10 attempts a night. 

If Smart simply did not shoot the ball - then I could accept his position on the team as a defensive role player.  But the fact that he forces so many shots when he knows [dang] well that he cannot shoot to save his life (come on bro, it's been four years - like he hasn't worked it out by now?) infuriates me.  He has a great impact on D, but he hurts the team as much on offense as he helps it on defense.  Save for the occasional bit hustle plays (like saves, dives on loose balls, etc) that happen every now and again, he really contributes next to nothing on the offensive end.  He is a worse version of Rajon Rondo on offence - because at least Rondo had an elite ability to get other people involved, and was an excellent finisher at the basket. There isn't a single thing Smart does well on offense, not one.
Wow you are really a blow hard. You don't like Smart. We get it.
Title: Re: Lowe on Marcus Smart's Passing
Post by: Rondo9 on December 16, 2017, 02:32:49 PM
Marcus Smart's passing is the most overrated item on this team.

The man averages a thoroughly mediocre 5.3 assists in 30 minutes (6.2 assists Per 36) versus 2.5 turnovers (3.0 Per 36). 

That means not only are his assist numbers mediocre, but his assist to turnover rate (2.12) is also extremely average.

Smart has registered 147 assists this year, and he's registered 37 turnovers off bad passes.  That essentially indicates that about 25% of his passes are bad passes. 

There is not a single statistic I have ever seen in Marcus Smart's entire career (college or Pro) to suggest he is anything more then an average passer.

I am thoroughly dissapointed by Marcus Smart this year.  So many players on the team have taken such big steps forward, and yet he is the only guy who has shown absolutely zero progress on either end of the floor. His game has not changed at all after four seasons in the league, and I've well and truly given up on investing any more time on him. 

The longer I see him ranking top 5 on the team in field goal attempts while shooting 32% / 29% / 72% the more I grow tired of seeing his face on this roster.  I don't care what anybody says, at this point I have zero interest in Boston re-signing him and would rather see the team move forward with Rozier as their primary backup ball handler.
Completely agree.  Marcus is horrible in every aspect of offensive basketball except passing, where he’s maybe about average.  So people overblowing his play making like it’s great when it really isn’t.

I don't know, I think Zach Lowe made some good arguments for his passing.
Title: Re: Lowe on Marcus Smart's Passing
Post by: nickagneta on December 16, 2017, 03:01:07 PM
Marcus Smart's passing is the most overrated item on this team.

The man averages a thoroughly mediocre 5.3 assists in 30 minutes (6.2 assists Per 36) versus 2.5 turnovers (3.0 Per 36). 

That means not only are his assist numbers mediocre, but his assist to turnover rate (2.12) is also extremely average.

Smart has registered 147 assists this year, and he's registered 37 turnovers off bad passes.  That essentially indicates that about 25% of his passes are bad passes. 

There is not a single statistic I have ever seen in Marcus Smart's entire career (college or Pro) to suggest he is anything more then an average passer.

I am thoroughly dissapointed by Marcus Smart this year.  So many players on the team have taken such big steps forward, and yet he is the only guy who has shown absolutely zero progress on either end of the floor. His game has not changed at all after four seasons in the league, and I've well and truly given up on investing any more time on him. 

The longer I see him ranking top 5 on the team in field goal attempts while shooting 32% / 29% / 72% the more I grow tired of seeing his face on this roster.  I don't care what anybody says, at this point I have zero interest in Boston re-signing him and would rather see the team move forward with Rozier as their primary backup ball handler.

Interesting take.  Couldn’t disagree more. 

Smart constantly making plays.  Covers 5 positions, and contrary to your stats, makes hockey assist passes too. 

You do realize not _every_ pass he makes results in a shot?  That 25% stat you came up with is fairly bogus.

Covers 5 positions?  Give me a break.  something like 99% of Smart's minutes have come at PG, SG, SF and I don't think I've seen him defend a legit center in my life - nor would I want to.  The guy excels at defending SGs and SFs and the occasional stretch four.  He struggles against PG's due to his lack of quickness. 

Regardless, I don't have a problem with Smart's defense - it's the one thing he does at an exceptional level. 

What I have a problem with is the fact that he is an average passer, a mediocre ball handler, is turnover prone, makes poor decisions with the ball more often then not, and averages 32% FG on 10 attempts a night. 

If Smart simply did not shoot the ball - then I could accept his position on the team as a defensive role player.  But the fact that he forces so many shots when he knows [dang] well that he cannot shoot to save his life (come on bro, it's been four years - like he hasn't worked it out by now?) infuriates me.  He has a great impact on D, but he hurts the team as much on offense as he helps it on defense.  Save for the occasional bit hustle plays (like saves, dives on loose balls, etc) that happen every now and again, he really contributes next to nothing on the offensive end.  He is a worse version of Rajon Rondo on offence - because at least Rondo had an elite ability to get other people involved, and was an excellent finisher at the basket. There isn't a single thing Smart does well on offense, not one.
Wow you are really a blow hard. You don't like Smart. We get it.
Okay first in my moderator voice:

No name calling or being disrespectful of others.

Second, I don't see where what crimson said is wrong. I think he is pretty spot on in his description of Smart. He is a thoroughly mediocre passer. His decision making, specifically in calling his own number rather than creating for others is poor. His shooting is historically bad. And he is a great defender 1-3 that can guard stretch fours but not prototypical large inside PFs.
Title: Re: Lowe on Marcus Smart's Passing
Post by: Rondo9 on December 16, 2017, 03:16:25 PM
Marcus Smart's passing is the most overrated item on this team.

The man averages a thoroughly mediocre 5.3 assists in 30 minutes (6.2 assists Per 36) versus 2.5 turnovers (3.0 Per 36). 

That means not only are his assist numbers mediocre, but his assist to turnover rate (2.12) is also extremely average.

Smart has registered 147 assists this year, and he's registered 37 turnovers off bad passes.  That essentially indicates that about 25% of his passes are bad passes. 

There is not a single statistic I have ever seen in Marcus Smart's entire career (college or Pro) to suggest he is anything more then an average passer.

I am thoroughly dissapointed by Marcus Smart this year.  So many players on the team have taken such big steps forward, and yet he is the only guy who has shown absolutely zero progress on either end of the floor. His game has not changed at all after four seasons in the league, and I've well and truly given up on investing any more time on him. 

The longer I see him ranking top 5 on the team in field goal attempts while shooting 32% / 29% / 72% the more I grow tired of seeing his face on this roster.  I don't care what anybody says, at this point I have zero interest in Boston re-signing him and would rather see the team move forward with Rozier as their primary backup ball handler.

Interesting take.  Couldn’t disagree more. 

Smart constantly making plays.  Covers 5 positions, and contrary to your stats, makes hockey assist passes too. 

You do realize not _every_ pass he makes results in a shot?  That 25% stat you came up with is fairly bogus.

Covers 5 positions?  Give me a break.  something like 99% of Smart's minutes have come at PG, SG, SF and I don't think I've seen him defend a legit center in my life - nor would I want to.  The guy excels at defending SGs and SFs and the occasional stretch four.  He struggles against PG's due to his lack of quickness. 

Regardless, I don't have a problem with Smart's defense - it's the one thing he does at an exceptional level. 

What I have a problem with is the fact that he is an average passer, a mediocre ball handler, is turnover prone, makes poor decisions with the ball more often then not, and averages 32% FG on 10 attempts a night. 

If Smart simply did not shoot the ball - then I could accept his position on the team as a defensive role player.  But the fact that he forces so many shots when he knows [dang] well that he cannot shoot to save his life (come on bro, it's been four years - like he hasn't worked it out by now?) infuriates me.  He has a great impact on D, but he hurts the team as much on offense as he helps it on defense.  Save for the occasional bit hustle plays (like saves, dives on loose balls, etc) that happen every now and again, he really contributes next to nothing on the offensive end.  He is a worse version of Rajon Rondo on offence - because at least Rondo had an elite ability to get other people involved, and was an excellent finisher at the basket. There isn't a single thing Smart does well on offense, not one.
Wow you are really a blow hard. You don't like Smart. We get it.
Okay first in my moderator voice:

No name calling or being disrespectful of others.

Second, I don't see where what crimson said is wrong. I think he is pretty spot on in his description of Smart. He is a thoroughly mediocre passer. His decision making, specifically in calling his own number rather than creating for others is poor. His shooting is historically bad. And he is a great defender 1-3 that can guard stretch fours but not prototypical large inside PFs.

I think it's his attitude that set him off. Besides Smart is a pretty good passer and a great defender.
Title: Re: Lowe on Marcus Smart's Passing
Post by: The Oracle on December 16, 2017, 05:16:10 PM
Smart has an offensive rating of 92 and a defensive rating of 103.  That means while Smart is on the court, Boston is scoring 92 points per 100 possessions and allowing 103 points per 100 possessions.  We are being outscored by 11 points per 100 possessions with him on the court.
Are there any stat wizards that can weigh in on this? Basketball reference lists these numbers for Smart but then under "Play-by-Play" stats it shows his +/- as +11.7 which mirrors everything I've read about him. How can his DRtg be higher than his Ortg and this be so? I'm confused.
Basketball reference's offensive and defensive ratings are NOT based on scoring per 100 possessions.  They are a junk metric created from a players own box score statistics to try to award a given player a value on each end of the floor.  It is utter garbage and the analysis Crimson has done is completely off base. 

The Celtics score 107.4 points per 100 possessions with Smart on the floor (3rd on the team behind Horford and Irving).  The Celtics give up 98.7 points to their opponents with Smart on the floor (3rd among regular rotation players behind Baynes and Rozier).  Smart's net rating of +8.7 is 2nd only to Horford's +9.9. 

If you cannot see the value of Marcus Smart on a basketball floor then you need to reevaluate how you watch games, your understanding of the statistics you are looking at and your entire approach to evaluating players because you are clearly doing it wrong.
Title: Re: Lowe on Marcus Smart's Passing
Post by: Boris Badenov on December 16, 2017, 05:42:31 PM
Smart has an offensive rating of 92 and a defensive rating of 103.  That means while Smart is on the court, Boston is scoring 92 points per 100 possessions and allowing 103 points per 100 possessions.  We are being outscored by 11 points per 100 possessions with him on the court.
Are there any stat wizards that can weigh in on this? Basketball reference lists these numbers for Smart but then under "Play-by-Play" stats it shows his +/- as +11.7 which mirrors everything I've read about him. How can his DRtg be higher than his Ortg and this be so? I'm confused.
Basketball reference's offensive and defensive ratings are NOT based on scoring per 100 possessions.  They are a junk metric created from a players own box score statistics to try to award a given player a value on each end of the floor.  It is utter garbage and the analysis Crimson has done is completely off base. 

The Celtics score 107.4 points per 100 possessions with Smart on the floor (3rd on the team behind Horford and Irving).  The Celtics give up 98.7 points to their opponents with Smart on the floor (3rd among regular rotation players behind Baynes and Rozier).  Smart's net rating of +8.7 is 2nd only to Horford's +9.9. 

If you cannot see the value of Marcus Smart on a basketball floor then you need to reevaluate how you watch games, your understanding of the statistics you are looking at and your entire approach to evaluating players because you are clearly doing it wrong.

TP.

Also, the C's assist on 62% of made baskets when Smart is on the floor, and 56% when he's off. The offense is about 5 points better, and shoots more efficiently overall even incorporating his horrendous shooting, which means everyone else gets MUCH more efficient when he's out there.

It's baffling, and maybe one of the hardest things in terms of how the numbers match the "eye test" in all my years of watching pro hoops. But I don't see how you can deny what the numbers say.
Title: Re: Lowe on Marcus Smart's Passing
Post by: unclebay on December 16, 2017, 05:50:09 PM
Marcus Smart's passing is the most overrated item on this team.

The man averages a thoroughly mediocre 5.3 assists in 30 minutes (6.2 assists Per 36) versus 2.5 turnovers (3.0 Per 36). 

That means not only are his assist numbers mediocre, but his assist to turnover rate (2.12) is also extremely average.

Smart has registered 147 assists this year, and he's registered 37 turnovers off bad passes.  That essentially indicates that about 25% of his passes are bad passes. 

There is not a single statistic I have ever seen in Marcus Smart's entire career (college or Pro) to suggest he is anything more then an average passer.

I am thoroughly dissapointed by Marcus Smart this year.  So many players on the team have taken such big steps forward, and yet he is the only guy who has shown absolutely zero progress on either end of the floor. His game has not changed at all after four seasons in the league, and I've well and truly given up on investing any more time on him. 

The longer I see him ranking top 5 on the team in field goal attempts while shooting 32% / 29% / 72% the more I grow tired of seeing his face on this roster.  I don't care what anybody says, at this point I have zero interest in Boston re-signing him and would rather see the team move forward with Rozier as their primary backup ball handler.

Interesting take.  Couldn’t disagree more. 

Smart constantly making plays.  Covers 5 positions, and contrary to your stats, makes hockey assist passes too. 

You do realize not _every_ pass he makes results in a shot?  That 25% stat you came up with is fairly bogus.

Covers 5 positions?  Give me a break.  something like 99% of Smart's minutes have come at PG, SG, SF and I don't think I've seen him defend a legit center in my life - nor would I want to.  The guy excels at defending SGs and SFs and the occasional stretch four.  He struggles against PG's due to his lack of quickness. 

Regardless, I don't have a problem with Smart's defense - it's the one thing he does at an exceptional level. 

What I have a problem with is the fact that he is an average passer, a mediocre ball handler, is turnover prone, makes poor decisions with the ball more often then not, and averages 32% FG on 10 attempts a night. 

If Smart simply did not shoot the ball - then I could accept his position on the team as a defensive role player.  But the fact that he forces so many shots when he knows [dang] well that he cannot shoot to save his life (come on bro, it's been four years - like he hasn't worked it out by now?) infuriates me.  He has a great impact on D, but he hurts the team as much on offense as he helps it on defense.  Save for the occasional bit hustle plays (like saves, dives on loose balls, etc) that happen every now and again, he really contributes next to nothing on the offensive end.  He is a worse version of Rajon Rondo on offence - because at least Rondo had an elite ability to get other people involved, and was an excellent finisher at the basket. There isn't a single thing Smart does well on offense, not one.
Wow you are really a blow hard. You don't like Smart. We get it.
Okay first in my moderator voice:

No name calling or being disrespectful of others.

Second, I don't see where what crimson said is wrong. I think he is pretty spot on in his description of Smart. He is a thoroughly mediocre passer. His decision making, specifically in calling his own number rather than creating for others is poor. His shooting is historically bad. And he is a great defender 1-3 that can guard stretch fours but not prototypical large inside PFs.
Pretty clear to me he is a good passer. That's quite clear actually.
Title: Re: Lowe on Marcus Smart's Passing
Post by: vjcsmoke on December 17, 2017, 02:03:13 AM
Ah, I see. I guess I was looking at the wrong stats. Imagine if Smart could at least shoot the 3 above 35%.... Sigh...

Imagine if Smart could shoot the 3 at 35% period... LLOL
Title: Re: Lowe on Marcus Smart's Passing
Post by: dreamgreen on December 17, 2017, 08:48:58 AM
The argument is over Smart flat out sucks! He's the worse offensive player on the team and compounds it with some of the dumbest plays on both ends of the court I've ever seen. He does one good play and people on here think that makes up for the 5 stupid plays he does, news flash it doesn't! Tired of hearing about this kid and I want him off the team, wish he broke his leg instead of Hayward! >:(
Title: Re: Lowe on Marcus Smart's Passing
Post by: Dino Pitino on December 17, 2017, 12:16:58 PM
Quote
Pretty clear to me he is a good passer. That's quite clear actually.

Clear to me, too. If someone thinks Smart is just a mediocre passer, that's an obvious sign they have an anti-Smart bias.
Title: Re: Lowe on Marcus Smart's Passing
Post by: mmmmm on December 19, 2017, 01:47:03 PM
Smart has an offensive rating of 92 and a defensive rating of 103.  That means while Smart is on the court, Boston is scoring 92 points per 100 possessions and allowing 103 points per 100 possessions.  We are being outscored by 11 points per 100 possessions with him on the court.
Are there any stat wizards that can weigh in on this? Basketball reference lists these numbers for Smart but then under "Play-by-Play" stats it shows his +/- as +11.7 which mirrors everything I've read about him. How can his DRtg be higher than his Ortg and this be so? I'm confused.

This is caused by basketball-references.com's confusing overload of the terms' "defensive rating" and "offensive rating".

For most sites, these terms,s are the measured change on the scoreboard, in points per 100 possessions.  Indeed, even on basketball-reference, you can see that in the 'per 100' mode of their own "Lineup Finder" tool and on the team 'per 100' rankings on the league summary page.

But basketball-reference.com also uses the same terms for their "estimated" points scored / surrendered per 100 possessions that they list for individuals on the stat pages.   And these are NOT measured changes in the scoreboard, but rather a derived estimate based on rather complex formula derived by Dean Oliver.   The explanation is given here:

https://www.basketball-reference.com/about/ratings.html

This formula  usually works okay as an estimate, but is subject to some very weird results on some players, especially this early in the year while the sample of input data is small.

I would take these numbers with a huge grain of salt.

Title: Re: Lowe on Marcus Smart's Passing
Post by: mmmmm on December 19, 2017, 01:57:52 PM
Quote
His 27.9 assist ratio is a career high, and when you look at his offensive numbers with passing Smart jumps from the 7th percentile to the 51st. Smart has a career-high usage rate, and the problem with that is it has led to a career-high turnover ratio at 14.
 
This is a take the good with the bad scenarios. Stevens will live with some Smart turnovers because he knows he will make some great passes as well. Here is the number that sums it up. Smarts assist to usage percentage according to Cleaningtheglass.com is 1.10, one of the best marks among all guards. His turnover percentage is 16.8 percent, one of the worst marks among all guards. But despite the turnovers, Smart always makes the extra pass.

The Celtics are 9.6 points better when MS-36 is on the floor. Smart accounts for 36% of our total assists as a team, so you can make the educated guess and assume Smart's contributions on the floor, via defense, passing, screen-assisting, and intangibles cannot be defined.

Weeeell ... yes ... so long as Al Horford is also on the floor.

When Smart has been on the floor while Al has not, the net rating has been a mere +0.4 points per 100.  The team TS% drops to just 50% in that configuration.

Relative to what though? When Al's off the floor overall we have a -3 net rating.

So doesn't the fact that we are +0.4 in that scenario when Smart plays mean that he improves those lineups too?

The main point is to be careful about giving Smart full credit for that "9.6 points better".   A huge portion of it is simply correlation effect.

There is a lot of noise around each number here.   He may still have a net positive effect, but it's likely much, much smaller than 9.6 points.  And it could even be slightly negative.
Title: Re: Lowe on Marcus Smart's Passing
Post by: nickagneta on December 19, 2017, 03:46:22 PM
Its night's like last night that make me believe he is a middle of the road passer. 7 turnovers, most on just awful passes, passes he makes at least a few times a game and gets away with sometimes.

Strangely enough on night's where Marcus shoots poorly it been easy to see that he contributed in a positive way overall. Last night he shot well but I think he was a negative for the team. Turnovers, bad decisions and less than average defense last night.
Title: Re: Lowe on Marcus Smart's Passing
Post by: Big333223 on December 19, 2017, 04:13:00 PM
Smart has an offensive rating of 92 and a defensive rating of 103.  That means while Smart is on the court, Boston is scoring 92 points per 100 possessions and allowing 103 points per 100 possessions.  We are being outscored by 11 points per 100 possessions with him on the court.
Are there any stat wizards that can weigh in on this? Basketball reference lists these numbers for Smart but then under "Play-by-Play" stats it shows his +/- as +11.7 which mirrors everything I've read about him. How can his DRtg be higher than his Ortg and this be so? I'm confused.

This is caused by basketball-references.com's confusing overload of the terms' "defensive rating" and "offensive rating".

For most sites, these terms,s are the measured change on the scoreboard, in points per 100 possessions.  Indeed, even on basketball-reference, you can see that in the 'per 100' mode of their own "Lineup Finder" tool and on the team 'per 100' rankings on the league summary page.

But basketball-reference.com also uses the same terms for their "estimated" points scored / surrendered per 100 possessions that they list for individuals on the stat pages.   And these are NOT measured changes in the scoreboard, but rather a derived estimate based on rather complex formula derived by Dean Oliver.   The explanation is given here:

https://www.basketball-reference.com/about/ratings.html

This formula  usually works okay as an estimate, but is subject to some very weird results on some players, especially this early in the year while the sample of input data is small.

I would take these numbers with a huge grain of salt.
TP for the explanation. That seems like a weird stat for basketball-reference to be using.

Its night's like last night that make me believe he is a middle of the road passer. 7 turnovers, most on just awful passes, passes he makes at least a few times a game and gets away with sometimes.

Strangely enough on night's where Marcus shoots poorly it been easy to see that he contributed in a positive way overall. Last night he shot well but I think he was a negative for the team. Turnovers, bad decisions and less than average defense last night.
Yeah, if Marcus could just put it all together consistently, he'd be amazing. I remain hopeful that this will come with age.