CelticsStrong
Celtics Basketball => Celtics Talk => Topic started by: Roy H. on December 11, 2017, 12:08:54 PM
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A lot of people acknowledge a “rookie wall” that rookies hit sometime later in the NBA season. Essentially, the argument is that young guys fatigue because they’re not used to 82 games plus playoffs.
Tatum played 966 minutes in college. He’s already up to 858 in the NBA. Is this a concern? Does anybody have perspective or data on how other rookies have held up?
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I'm sure he will, but given his current trajectory, even his slump would be impressive in my eyes.
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A lot of people acknowledge a “rookie wall” that rookies hit sometime later in the NBA season. Essentially, the argument is that young guys fatigue because they’re not used to 82 games plus playoffs.
Tatum played 966 minutes in college. He’s already up to 858 in the NBA. Is this a concern? Does anybody have perspective or data on how other rookies have held up?
In fact, any generalization about the rookie wall has some example to flout it. There are plenty of players whose numbers dropped off midway through their first season, plenty even who have hit the supposed wall and gone on never to replicate said numbers again. So those players hit the wall and crashed, right? They’re flameouts, no? Maybe, except one player who fits that definition is Blake Griffin, who averaged 22.8 points in the first half of his rookie season, 22.5 on the year, and has never averaged more than 20.7 since. Blake Griffin is starting this year’s All-Star Game.
Adelman says:
Adelman agreed with the idea that talent must come into consideration when it comes to rookies’ midseason struggles. In fact, he said he’s not a believer in the rookie wall in those cases, when the talent is extreme and the player’s minutes are high. There’s too much responsibility for those players, and, more important, too much time. Things might get shaky or imbalanced for a bit, but given that kind of leash, an elite player, even a rookie, manages to regroup.
From most topics and research I've seen, this guy demonstrates it the best:
According to the model, and by the traditional definition of the rookie wall, it doesn’t exist. There’s a dip in November to -1.950, meaning rookie Game Scores are expected to be 1.95 worse in November. However, the seasonal indices continue to increase. Therefore, rookies tend to improve throughout the season and perform best in April. There is no mid-season dip that would signal an obvious rookie wall.
Instead, the rookie wall could be the brief dip in performance in November. However, each team only plays about three games in October, so the dip could be a product of a lack of data in October. On the other hand, it could represent rookies exploding out of the gate, but slowing down after a few weeks.
The near plateau from January to February could be the rookie wall. Two prominent rookies who possibly faced the rookie wall last season, Kristaps Porzingis and Devin Booker, struggled in February. In his ten games leading up to the All-Star break in mid-February, Porzingis shot a combined 49 for 123 from the field (40 percent), and his New York Knicks would only win one of those games. Devin Booker, similarly, shot just under 34 percent from the field in the month of February last season.
Overall, the traditional definition of the rookie wall remains a myth. The model indicates a small decline in November and a bit of a plateau in February. Maybe a “rookie wall” isn’t the correct term. Referring to the drop in November, it should be rephrased as rookie fortune that is brought down to earth. Referring to the mid-season plateau, it’s not a wall or even a bump in the road, merely a slowing down of progress.
http://thesportsquotient.com/nba/2016/12/9/modeling-the-nba-rookie-wall
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That being said, Tatum benefits from a system where he isn't the main focal point, and is given the ability to take and make the right shot regardless of the situation. He's intelligent enough offensively to be able to discover mismatches and take advantage.
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I'm anticipating a dropoff in production or at least efficiency at some point this season but I wouldn't say I'm "worried" about it. I've been so impressed with Tatum so far that with a sizable dropoff he could still meet my expectations.
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I was just thinking about this. I think it may have to teams playing better later in the season and finally having some info on what the rookies are capable of. Then the rookies need time to adjust to the better play and adjustments the teams have made.
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I would start by looking at the rookie seasons of players currently in the Hall of Fame.
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I'm more concerned with the "lack of confidence" wall that accompanies rookies that don't get ENOUGH significant playing time.
I think Tatum is going to grow every single season (except for 3pt %.. c'mon we all know this is a fluke :) even with the 100% wide open 3's he's getting due to the C's offense scheme).
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Well, I guess we know the answer to that one.
Mike
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Well, I guess we know the answer to that one.
Mike
tatum smashed through it
simmons slammed into it
..
then again, simmons probably just hit the sophomore slump